How many Jordan years over Peak Duncan?

[Matt15]

How many Jordan years would you take over Peak Duncan?

[One_and_Done]

None of them.

[lessthanjake]

Depends on what we’re talking about. If we’re talking about the “greatness” of the year, then I think 2003 Duncan is above all but 1991-1993 and perhaps 1996 Jordan. But if we’re talking about generally how good he was as a player, then I think we’d also include 1990 and probably 1989, while 1996 Jordan is probably just out of the mix. So basically, by “greatness” I’d say 1991-1993 + 1996, and by “goodness” I’d say 1989-1993.

[eminence]

I prefer peak Duncan.

[capfan33]

Possibly none, would seriously consider 89-92. Maybe 88.

[DraymondGold]

In terms of goodness, my mean interpretation for prime Jordan just has him a level above my mean interpretation for peak Duncan. I think the box stats, overall plus minus stats, team stats, and adjusted wowy stats all agree with that, as does what I see on the film. The statistical argument for Duncan really relies on something like small-sample playoff-only raw plus minus, which is known to be highly noisy, and worse yet for peak Duncan seems to be boosted by shooting noise/luck to an unusual extent. Putting a lot of faith on his teammate's three point shooting dropping off so precipitously when Duncan's off in the playoffs only (to an extent not supported in the massive regular season sample) just seems like a weak argument to me.

Probably 88–93 Jordan over peak 03 Duncan, with 96 looking fairly similar. But the uncertainty bars and noise with all the analysis we have is wide enough that I wouldn't think it's crazy to have a high-end Duncan argument end up over a lot more seasons (e.g. ~88/93/96 all seem a slight level down from the heart of Jordan's prime in ~89-92, and so could be moved lower).
For example, if you value individual defense as 50-50 to individual offense (which doesn't seem supported at all by any data by the time we get to the modern era, but is a stance many people have), that might boost Duncan quite a bit. Maybe the 02/03-specific rules and era boost individual defensive value a lot more than on average in other eras? It's an argument at least.

In terms of greatness, if you account for things like story or achievement, that could also push Duncan up, as people love the story and achievement of some floor-raising success more than ceiling-raising success. Not personally my criteria, but people have different criteria, and that's valid too!

[Narigo]

88-93

[Cavsfansince84]

If the idea is which guy I'd want to lead a slightly above avg cast for a season in their respective eras(which is how I view these 'how many of player x over y' type of threads) then I think it's just 90-91. I don't see much of any argument at all for any other MJ years and maybe peak Duncan was better than 90 or 91 MJ. No way of really knowing. MJ just tends to always get the benefit of the doubt in these kinds of comparisons.

[ShotCreator]

89, 90, 91. 88 and 92 are in the ballpark.

But that 3 year run, I'm pretty sure about.

Jordan was a late game machine, with the best last 5 minute output on record in this period and really really good on offense. GOAT level good.

Add being a clearly plus defender to that and you're looking at something beyond what Duncan was doing, in my subjective opinion.

Only thing I can give Duncan is it's easier to build a winning foundation around him due to the resilience of elite defense. But if Jordan has a winning foundation, he just takes teams to higher levels than Duncan can, IMO.

[jdzimme3]

All bulls years after year 2. The second threepeat is close though. Duncan in the 90s likely looks more like Ewing than Jordan.

[Top10alltime]

Every year of 88-92. Maybe 93. Just GOAT level scoring, and floor lift, along with all-time playmaking.

He is an elite guard defender with his motor, his on-ball and perimeter defense. That's all I have to say.

Let's get Duncan out of KG conversations before we start putting him in GOAT peak conversations

[capfan33]

All bulls years after year 2. The second threepeat is close though. Duncan in the 90s likely looks more like Ewing than Jordan.

What happened in 1999?

[One_and_Done]

Yeh, Duncan who beat prime Shaq & Kobe with a meh support cast is on another planet to Ewing. I don't see much of an argument for Jordan over 02 or 03 Duncan, Jordan just benefitted from having a better support cast and playing in a weaker era.

[Narigo]

Yeh, Duncan who beat prime Shaq & Kobe with a meh support cast is on another planet to Ewing. I don't see much of an argument for Jordan over 02 or 03 Duncan, Jordan just benefitted from having a better support cast and playing in a weaker era.

Weaker era?? Jordan and Duncan careers overlapped. Duncan has his best seasons when Jordan was still in the league

Also. Jordan won a championship in Duncan's rookie season. Even in his rookie season, Duncan was arguably a top5 player in the league and had a better co-star than Jordan in David Robinson

[One_and_Done]

Yeh, Duncan who beat prime Shaq & Kobe with a meh support cast is on another planet to Ewing. I don't see much of an argument for Jordan over 02 or 03 Duncan, Jordan just benefitted from having a better support cast and playing in a weaker era.

Weaker era?? Jordan and Duncan careers overlapped. Duncan has his best seasons when Jordan was still in the league

Also. Jordan won a championship in Duncan's rookie season. Even in his rookie season, Duncan was arguably a top5 player in the league and had a better co-star than Jordan in David Robinson

There was minimal overlap. If the Bulls had stayed together for Duncan's second year they'd have been clobbered by Duncan.

[1993Playoffs]

90 and 91.

The 2 years before and after are arguable

[Top10alltime]

Yeh, Duncan who beat prime Shaq & Kobe with a meh support cast is on another planet to Ewing. I don't see much of an argument for Jordan over 02 or 03 Duncan, Jordan just benefitted from having a better support cast and playing in a weaker era.

Jordan clears Duncan in offense in everyway. Duncan isn't good off-ball, and his rim protection + roaming is the only thing he has going for him.

88-92 Jordan > any Duncan year

[One_and_Done]

Yeh, Duncan who beat prime Shaq & Kobe with a meh support cast is on another planet to Ewing. I don't see much of an argument for Jordan over 02 or 03 Duncan, Jordan just benefitted from having a better support cast and playing in a weaker era.

Jordan clears Duncan in offense in everyway. Duncan isn't good off-ball, and his rim protection + roaming is the only thing he has going for him.

88-92 Jordan > any Duncan year

A bit absurd to say that defence is 'all' that the greatest defensive player of all-time has going for him.

Duncan was just a more impactful.player. Jordan could never have carried bad teams like Duncan did in 02 or 03 (or even 01).

[Top10alltime]

Yeh, Duncan who beat prime Shaq & Kobe with a meh support cast is on another planet to Ewing. I don't see much of an argument for Jordan over 02 or 03 Duncan, Jordan just benefitted from having a better support cast and playing in a weaker era.

Jordan clears Duncan in offense in everyway. Duncan isn't good off-ball, and his rim protection + roaming is the only thing he has going for him.

88-92 Jordan > any Duncan year

A bit absurd to say that defence is 'all' that the greatest defensive player of all-time has going for him.

Duncan was just a more impactful.player. Jordan could never have carried bad teams like Duncan did in 02 or 03 (or even 01).

You haven't provided any evidence. And you are misunderstanding what I am telling you, because you have no capacity of analyzing or comprehending film.

Duncan isn't even a top 3 defender in NBA history. Bill Russell (GOAT rim protector, very versatile relative to era (KG and Draymond level)), Hakeem Olajuwon (better than Duncan at his best aspects defensively, more mobile, and able to switch better, and higher motor), and Kevin Garnett (the most versatile defender of all-time, Duncan has only rim protection on him definitely, because roaming is debatable. KG is elite at every aspect of defense, being unexploitable defensively, his problems were on offense, which holds him back). Duncan > MJ at defense, but MJ is still an elite guard defender, or sub-ATG.

This is while MJ's all time (GOAT level actually) offensive game was amazing. He would for sure translate to today's eras, and the proof is Shai (who is just worse than MJ everyway, except foul drawing). You WILL bring up Shai leading a low turnover offense, but...

2025 Thunder: 17 TOV/G
1988 Bulls: 15.4 TOV/g
1989 Bulls (more on-ball than Shai ever was): 16.2 TOV/g
1990 Bulls: 15.2 TOV/g
1991 Bulls: 14.4 TOV/g
1992 Bulls: 13.3 TOV/g
1993 Bulls: 13.5 TOV/g

Every single one of MJ's 6 best years was better than peak Shai. What about their own ball-security?
Shai 2025: 3.0 TOV/g
1991 Jordan: 2.5 TOV/g
1992 Jordan: 2.5 TOV/g
1993 Jordan: 2.7 TOV/g

Also, unlike Shai, Jordan doesn't have mediocre playoff offenses, and carried by the GOAT defensive situation (there are 5 better defenders on 2025 Thunder than Shai).

2025 Thunder: +1.3 opponent adjusted rORtg
1989 Bulls: +7.7 opponent adjusted rORtg
1990 Bulls: +7.2 opponent adjusted rORtg
1991 Bulls: +13.3 opponent adjusted rORtg
1992 Bulls: +5.2 opponent adjusted rORtg
1993 Bulls: +13.0 opponent adjusted rORtg

Except 1988, Jordan has never had a playoffs offense as bad as Shai Pilgeous. Jordan is much better than Shai, who is arguably the best this season, and that shows how well he'd translate to this era. Jordan led bad teams like the 1988, and 1989 Bulls, but faced better teams than Duncan did. Stop going off of assumptions, and ignoring the facts. Jordan is the GOAT, and is clear of Duncan.

[One_and_Done]

We disagree. I also don't find those stats persuasive. Who cites TOV/g as a winning argument?