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How many Kevin Durant years would you take over peak Clyde Drexler?

This is actually interesting, because my initial reaction was to say a ton of seasons but then I thought about it a bit more and I’m not sure that’s the answer.

Peak Drexler was in 1992, and he had a 8.7 regular season BPM and 7.8 playoff BPM. Durant beat that regular season number in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017 (he’s above it in 2015 too, but he barely played that season). Durant beat that playoff number in 2012, 2013, 2017, and 2021. And we also know that Durant’s impact tends to really undershoot his box metrics more than pretty much any other star (see: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=118890284#p118890284). We don’t know either way whether that’s the case for Drexler, but my baseline assumption is that he’s relatively normal in terms of box data translating to impact, rather than being overshot by box metrics as much as Durant. So if Drexler’s box data looks similar or better than Durant’s, then I think Drexler *probably* was better.

So then where does that leave us? Well, Durant looks solidly better than peak Drexler by box data in 2013 and 2017, but not miles above. In 2014 and 2016, Durant has a better BPM in the regular season but is noticeably lower in the playoffs (especially in 2016). Depending on how much you think Drexler is accurately reflected by his box numbers, I think you really could get to a conclusion that peak Drexler was better than peak Durant. My intuition wouldn’t go that far. But I wouldn’t say I think Durant was better in any more than 2013, 2014, and 2017. And 2017 is the only year where I feel particularly confident about it. With 2013 and 2014, I feel ambivalent and would probably say they’re about even. So yeah, I guess 2017 is my answer.

I should note, though, that I think Durant has a bunch of years better than Drexler’s second-best year. Durant definitely has had a better career, but Drexler is an example of a guy with a peak year that is noticeably better than the rest of his years and therefore makes him do surprisingly well in a peaks comparison.

Peak Drexler was in 1992

Not 3 years earlier?

His 1988-89 season he scored better, shot about the same as 1991-92, but was a much better offensive rebounder with a significantly higher steal rate in 1988-89.

His 289 offensive rebounds in 1988-89 were the 7th most by a player in the league, coming from an SG, and his 213 steals were the 4th most among all players. In 1991-92 he was at just 166 off rebs and only 138 steals.

lessthanjake wrote:This is actually interesting, because my initial reaction was to say a ton of seasons but then I thought about it a bit more and I’m not sure that’s the answer.

Peak Drexler was in 1992, and he had a 8.7 regular season BPM and 7.8 playoff BPM. Durant beat that regular season number in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017 (he’s above it in 2015 too, but he barely played that season). Durant beat that playoff number in 2012, 2013, 2017, and 2021. And we also know that Durant’s impact tends to really undershoot his box metrics more than pretty much any other star (see: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=118890284#p118890284). We don’t know either way whether that’s the case for Drexler, but my baseline assumption is that he’s relatively normal in terms of box data translating to impact, rather than being overshot by box metrics as much as Durant. So if Drexler’s box data looks similar or better than Durant’s, then I think Drexler *probably* was better.

So then where does that leave us? Well, Durant looks solidly better than peak Drexler by box data in 2013 and 2017, but not miles above. In 2014 and 2016, Durant has a better BPM in the regular season but is noticeably lower in the playoffs (especially in 2016). Depending on how much you think Drexler is accurately reflected by his box numbers, I think you really could get to a conclusion that peak Drexler was better than peak Durant. My intuition wouldn’t go that far. But I wouldn’t say I think Durant was better in any more than 2013, 2014, and 2017. And 2017 is the only year where I feel particularly confident about it. With 2013 and 2014, I feel ambivalent and would probably say they’re about even. So yeah, I guess 2017 is my answer.

I should note, though, that I think Durant has a bunch of years better than Drexler’s second-best year. Durant definitely has had a better career, but Drexler is an example of a guy with a peak year that is noticeably better than the rest of his years and therefore makes him do surprisingly well in a peaks comparison.

For the most part I agree with this though I think KD sort of coasted from 17-19 and if I am choosing between those versions of him and peak Clyde I'd go with KD. After 2019 it's more a matter of how many games missed disqualifies him over the course of a season. So I would prob go with 2012-2019 minus 2015. 2019 is questionable due to the finals injury and maybe 1-2 of the seasons after that.

kcktiny wrote:

Peak Drexler was in 1992

Not 3 years earlier?

His 1988-89 season he scored better, shot about the same as 1991-92, but was a much better offensive rebounder with a significantly higher steal rate in 1988-89.

His 289 offensive rebounds in 1988-89 were the 7th most by a player in the league, coming from an SG, and his 213 steals were the 4th most among all players. In 1991-92 he was at just 166 off rebs and only 138 steals.

I don’t want to go down a rabbit hole with you on this, but the Blazers played a much higher pace in 1989 and Drexler played more minutes per game that year too (likely because the team did better in 1992 so there was more fourth-quarter garbage time). These things will inflate per-game and total stats. If we look at BPM—which is a box measure that normalizes for that stuff—Drexler had a 8.7 BPM in 1992 and a 6.5 BPM in 1989. In the playoffs, he had a 7.8 BPM in 1992 and a 5.7 BPM in 1989. If we instead looked at WS/48, Drexler had 0.223 WS/48 in the 1992 regular season and 0.197 in 1989. In the playoffs, it was 0.193 in 1992 and 0.067 in 1989.

So yeah, I think Drexler’s box numbers were solidly better in 1992 than in 1989. Of course, there’s also the fact that 1992 Drexler led a great regular season team and then led them to the Finals, while 1989 Drexler led a mediocre team that got swept in the first round. Much of that is probably just a function of the supporting cast improving over those years, but it certainly is also consistent with the notion that Drexler was better in 1992. Not to mention that Drexler was all-NBA first team and 2nd in MVP voting in 1992, while he didn’t make all-NBA or get any MVP votes in 1989. So there was definitely a difference in how he was seen contemporaneously in those years. Putting all that together, I think it’s pretty straightforward to conclude that 1992 was his peak.

Peak Drexler circa 1992 was a really good player. As lessthanjake so eloquently put it, there aren't that many KD seasons I would take over him. Off the top of my head, I'd say 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2021. And mind you, I'm someone who is strongly emphasizing PS performance. I think the number of missed games in 2021 could take that season out for a lot of people.

Almost KD's whole career. He is just that good

Don’t think that highly of the Glide’s peak as the sum of his game seemed less than what his overall impact should have been. I’d take KD’s scoring efficacy. With that said, about 7-8 KD season.

homecourtloss wrote:Don’t think that highly of the Glide’s peak as the sum of his game seemed less than what his overall impact should have been.

Huh?

lessthanjake wrote:This is actually interesting, because my initial reaction was to say a ton of seasons but then I thought about it a bit more and I’m not sure that’s the answer.

Peak Drexler was in 1992, and he had a 8.7 regular season BPM and 7.8 playoff BPM. Durant beat that regular season number in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017 (he’s above it in 2015 too, but he barely played that season). Durant beat that playoff number in 2012, 2013, 2017, and 2021. And we also know that Durant’s impact tends to really undershoot his box metrics more than pretty much any other star (see: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=118890284#p118890284). We don’t know either way whether that’s the case for Drexler, but my baseline assumption is that he’s relatively normal in terms of box data translating to impact, rather than being overshot by box metrics as much as Durant. So if Drexler’s box data looks similar or better than Durant’s, then I think Drexler *probably* was better.

So then where does that leave us? Well, Durant looks solidly better than peak Drexler by box data in 2013 and 2017, but not miles above. In 2014 and 2016, Durant has a better BPM in the regular season but is noticeably lower in the playoffs (especially in 2016). Depending on how much you think Drexler is accurately reflected by his box numbers, I think you really could get to a conclusion that peak Drexler was better than peak Durant. My intuition wouldn’t go that far. But I wouldn’t say I think Durant was better in any more than 2013, 2014, and 2017. And 2017 is the only year where I feel particularly confident about it. With 2013 and 2014, I feel ambivalent and would probably say they’re about even. So yeah, I guess 2017 is my answer.

I should note, though, that I think Durant has a bunch of years better than Drexler’s second-best year. Durant definitely has had a better career, but Drexler is an example of a guy with a peak year that is noticeably better than the rest of his years and therefore makes him do surprisingly well in a peaks comparison.

Thanks for your contributions.

I could be seeing things, but I've noticed that players from KD's era and later are putting up bigger numbers compared to Clyde's era in metrics such as BPM. Does that mean they're better or does that mean you're more likely to accumulate stats ~post-2016?

I don’t want to go down a rabbit hole with you on this

Apparently you do.

but the Blazers played a much higher pace in 1989

105.8 vs. 100.7 poss/48min - that's 1.3 more poss/qtr. How is that "much higher"? That's all of a 5% difference.

and Drexler played more minutes per game that year too

Yes he did, 3064 vs. 2751, a 10% difference.

These things will inflate per-game and total stats.

Really.

Drexler grabbed 43% more offensive rebounds and 35% more steals in 1988-89 vs. 1991-92 - far far greater than the above 5% and 10% differences, all while scoring better on similar shooting (5.04% vs. 50.9% eFG%).

If we look at BPM—which is a box measure that normalizes for that stuff—Drexler had a 8.7 BPM in 1992 and a 6.5 BPM in 1989.

So much for your advanced statistic. It clearly doesn't account for the above differences.

So yeah, I think Drexler’s box numbers were solidly better in 1992 than in 1989.

Nothing like denying reality.

Of course, there’s also the fact that 1992 Drexler led a great regular season team and then led them to the Finals, while 1989 Drexler led a mediocre team that got swept in the first round. Much of that is probably just a function of the supporting cast improving over those years

Ya' think?

The key difference between those 2 teams - Blazers 1988-89 vs, 1991-92 - was the addition of PF Buck Williams, and also Clifford Robinson, who played all over the frontcourt, from SF to C.

Williams was an all-defense PF that season that also lead them in offensive rebounds in 1991-92, and shot 60% on 2s where no one else on the team shot better than 51% on 2s. He was a huge difference between those two teams (no one on the 1988-89 team shot better than 53% on 2s). C.Robinson was also a very good defender that was their key frontcourt sub. Those two players are the key differences between the 1988-89 and 1991-92 Blazers.

Not Drexler being better in 1991-92 vs 1988-89.

Their PFs in 1988-89 were a 38 year old Caldwell Jones (who started half the season), Steve Johnson who was never known for his defense, and Richard Anderson, a Marc Iavaroni wannabe.

That compared to the addition of PF Bucks Williams, who if not in the HOF by now bloody well should be.

In 1989-90 that team ripped off 3 straight seasons of high wins (59, 63, and 57, only the Bulls had more) primarily because of the addition of one of the best PFs in the league (and staying healthy). Williams was all-defense all 3 seasons while grabbing the 5th most rebounds among all PFs in the league and shooting the highest 2pt FG% among PFs. Great defender, very good rebounder, very efficient on offense.

Drexler's statistics in 1989-90 and 1990-91 were not as good as either 1988-89 or 1991-92. Yet those two seasons they won more games (59, 63) than they did 1991-92.

Tell us how your BPM and WS take into consideration the defense of Buck Williams (and Clifford Robinson).

2012-14
2016-19
2021-22

9 years.