KillBuckner...? on Louis Williams

[joey-A]

KB, since you seem to be the expert on everything Philly, and their players. Just wondering. We know you think Green Sucks. And has next-to-no value. I was wondering your feelings on Lou Williams, and his game, and his value. He's a free agent at seasons end. But if we offered him up, and traded him, the team getting him would have his rights to match any offer he gets.
So KB, what would Lou Williams worth be ? He's making only 700,000 this his final season. So obviously Philly couldn't take back any real salary. So I Imagine a draft pick would have to comeback. What Value draft pick and from what team do you think Williams is worthy of. Us Sixer fans have watched him alot. So we all KNOW what he can do. Lets hear your thoughts on the matter since you are all-knowing

[WiltForever]

So KB, what would Lou Williams worth be ?)

Joey,

KillB seems to be a pretty knowledgeable guy. He just doesn't see any upside in Willie Green. Gentlemen's disagreement. So I would be interested in learning his views about Lou-Will. I've got mine:

Lou-Will is an excellent passer for a 21-year-old who didn't go to college and was, by all accounts, a legendary high school scorer (aka gunner). Thus he can play either guard position.

If they make him a two, he'll be a scoring champ one day. If he didn't play for Mo (and if he were inserted in the starting lineup and told 'it's okay to shoot'), he'd be in the top-ten scorers (not shooters) this year.

He needs to work on his outside shot and is still learning on defense, but is an athletic freak and is remarkably quick on his feet.

His recent lackluster play can be attributed to David Lee's dirty play and a resulting broken toe.

If Lou-Will had come out in last June's draft, he would have been among the top-three guards. The only players who have more upside in my opinion were Oden and Durrant - and I'm a Noah and Brewer fan.

Picked at 45, he has potential to be one of the best picks of all time (defined by: coming late in the draft) and, despite his other failings, might make us think back fondly of Billy King. Well, maybe not!

[midranger]

So KB, what would Lou Williams worth be ?)

Joey,

KillB seems to be a pretty knowledgeable guy. He just doesn't see any upside in Willie Green. Gentlemen's disagreement. So I would be interested in learning his views about Lou-Will. I've got mine:

Lou-Will is an excellent passer for a 21-year-old who didn't go to college and was, by all accounts, a legendary high school scorer (aka gunner). Thus he can play either guard position.

If they make him a two, he'll be a scoring champ one day. If he didn't play for Mo (and if he were inserted in the starting lineup and told 'it's okay to shoot'), he'd be in the top-ten scorers (not shooters) this year.

He needs to work on his outside shot and is still learning on defense, but is an athletic freak and is remarkably quick on his feet.

His recent lackluster play can be attributed to David Lee's dirty play and a resulting broken toe.

If Lou-Will had come out in last June's draft, he would have been among the top-three guards. The only players who have more upside in my opinion were Oden and Durrant - and I'm a Noah and Brewer fan.

Picked at 45, he has potential to be one of the best picks of all time and, despite his other failings, might make us think back fondly of Billy King. Well, maybe not!

Wow. A lot of people drunk in the early afternoon.

[IPC075009]

-= original quote snipped =-



Wow. A lot of people drunk in the early afternoon.

ill second that. what an absurd assessment.

[big3_8_19_21]

talk about blind homerism.

[KF10]

[quote="WiltForever"][/quote]

Louis Williams is good but not HOF good...

[RickyDizzle]

-= original quote snipped =-



ill second that. what an absurd assessment.

I'l third that, here's my evaluation:

First let me say I am a celtics fan not a 76ers fan, but I happen to live in the philly area right now so I end up watching lots of sixers games when there is nothing else on. I'm a nuetral fan, but have probably seen a lot more of Lou Williams then other non-philly fans.

With that said I would say a good player comparison from a value standpoint is Monta Ellis. Lou is about where Monta was last year in my opinion: a young guy, that is quick, athletic, and trying to find a role for himself whether its at the 1 or the 2.

I personally like Lou a little better, but like I said I think he is still about a year behind Monta in development.

He can definitely score, and has a waaaaay higher ceiling then Willie Green. He may be undersized to guard 2's, but looks like more of a 2 then a 1 to me so far...he could def hone his PG skills though and be a very competent player at either position.

I dont think he is ready for the minutes that would be required for him to be a top 10 scorer this year as WiltForever said, or given the minutes if he'd be able to crack the top 20, not to mention top 10 in the NBA.

Definitely a very interesting you player with a ton of upside and a very high ceiling, but a league leader in points? Lets not jump the gun....

-Dizzy

[IggyTheBEaST]

LWill is way under rated, but to say he would be top ten in scoring is a little optimistic at best. He could prob be a 21 and 5 player but id rather him be an 18 and 7 guy.

[WiltForever]

[quote="Definitely a very interesting you player with a ton of upside and a very high ceiling, but a league leader in points? Lets not jump the gun....[/quote]

Ricky,

You get a 'Tommy Point' for being reasonably objective. If you've watched Lou-Will (as much as I've watched Rajon Rondo, the next Bob Cousey), you should know that he usually doesn't shoot until the fourth quarter. And until his injury, he was virtually unstoppable when he goes to the basket. If you watch Sixer games, then you also know that he could easily take twice as many shots - and probably wouldn't be gunning.

A little arithmetic is in order: In 30 games, including those when he came back from his injury, he's averaged 8.7 shots per game and around 10.4 points. With the exception of Dwight Howard, all ten players ranked six to 15 on the top scorers' list and scoring between 24.5 and 22.1 points, have taken 16.4-19.7 shots.

So double Lou-Will's shots - he can score 'at will - and you're at 21 points. Then factor in around a 7 ppg average in the first six games following his injury, and you're at 22.

So, it's not the stretch everyone thinks and I ain't smokin' peyote. On the 'one day he'll be a scoring champion' prediction, what's the problem. He's 21. He's unstoppable when he goes to the basket...

Now, being a 'homer' I think you would agree (since I live up here in Celtic Nation) is projecting Rondo (as Sir Thomas Heinsohn constantly chortles) as the next Cousey. And smart people over on the Celtics board actually believe that malarkey.

By the way, I'm not suggesting that scoring 22+ ppg would be a good thing for Lou-Will's development. It probably wouldn't - but there's no question in my mind that he could do it if told to shoot.

Cheers...

[yungal07]

Efficiency usually goes down as usage goes up, so your assumption that Williams could sustain his percentages (which isn't good to begin with) is incorrect.

[joey-A]

Both Williams and Monta Ellis were both taken in the same draft, and both in round 2. Ellis got 18 + solid minutes a game his rookie year, as where Lou got 4 a game, and then 8 his second year last year. In Ellis's 2nd year, and this his 3rd year he's gotten over 34 minutes a game,,,,did his productivity go down ? And Louis is way, way a better prospect than Ellis ever was. In the 10 or so games that Lou DID get over 30 minutes, he has shot over 48 % from the field, and over 42 % from the 3 Pt line. He's averaged over 18 Pts a game, and has averaged over 10 + FT attempts in those games.


How you can call that NOT productive is beyond me, and anyone else here with a normal brain

[WiltForever]

Efficiency usually goes down as usage goes up, so your assumption that Williams could sustain his percentages (which isn't good to begin with) is incorrect.

And especially on a team that is offensively challenged.

A simple point that many people forget: Williams is essentially in the same rookie class as Horford, Green and Brewer (all born in 1986); a year behind Acie Law and Noah (born in 1985), and a year ahead of Mike Conley and Yi (born in 1987).

He was Naismith Prep Player of the Year in 2005 and top-five in several other high school player rankings.

None of them has any more upside the Williams - except that he didn't go to college, instead got buried on Mo Cheeks's bench. So, he might have fallen back a year. But his pedigree is as outstanding as any of the above.

And again, these kids are all under 22. How are they doing in this, effectively their rookie season (and admittedly, Noah and Conley's stats are down because of injury or lacking of playing time). I'll add Rajon Rondo just for good measure, although he doesn't get much coverage on D and has KG, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen and KG to pass to (not exactly Reggie Evans, Andre Iguodala and Willie Green):

Horford 9.1 ppg/9.5 rebounds
Yi 10.9 ppg/6.1 rebounds
Green 9.3 ppg/5.2 rebounds
Noah 4.4 ppg/3.1 rebounds
Brewer 5.6 ppg/4.4 rebounds
Acie Law 4.5 ppg/2.3 assists
Conley 5.9 ppg/4.1 assists
Williams 10.7 ppg/3.4 assists
Rondo 9.6 ppg/5.4 assists

[yungal07]

Both Williams and Monta Ellis were both taken in the same draft, and both in round 2. Ellis got 18 + solid minutes a game his rookie year, as where Lou got 4 a game, and then 8 his second year last year. In Ellis's 2nd year, and this his 3rd year he's gotten over 34 minutes a game,,,,did his productivity go down ? And Louis is way, way a better prospect than Ellis ever was. In the 10 or so games that Lou DID get over 30 minutes, he has shot over 48 % from the field, and over 42 % from the 3 Pt line. He's averaged over 18 Pts a game, and has averaged over 10 + FT attempts in those games.


How you can call that NOT productive is beyond me, and anyone else here with a normal brain

First of all, develop some reading comprehension before you respond, smartass. I said that efficiency usually goes down with usage, which is true. Yes, there are some players who maintain their efficiency with higher usage

[yunggunz]

And Louis is way, way a better prospect than Ellis ever was.

No. Not even close.


Monta would have been a lotto pick if teams didnt red flag him because they were concerned about his knees.

Louis Williams was universally ranked #4 in his highschool class for SG's. Monta was either 2 or 3 on everyones list.

[WiltForever]

<<Louis Williams was universally ranked #4 in his highschool class for SG's. Monta was either 2 or 3 on everyones list.>>

Can't find all the high school rankings, but Louis Williams was on the first team in several widely read surveys; sixth in the 'insidehoops' survey (not sixth for SGs, but sixth overall).

I also believe that he was first team on a 2004 Sport News survey, though dropped slightly in 2005. Can't remember all the details. I'm not putting Monta Ellis down. He generally ranked a point or two ahead...but not among guards, among top-five players.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/preps/ba ... boys_x.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naismith_P ... f_the_Year

http://www.parade.com/articles/editions ... featured_2

http://www.insidehoops.com/high-school.shtml

[dockingsched]

Both Williams and Monta Ellis were both taken in the same draft, and both in round 2. Ellis got 18 + solid minutes a game his rookie year, as where Lou got 4 a game, and then 8 his second year last year. In Ellis's 2nd year, and this his 3rd year he's gotten over 34 minutes a game,,,,did his productivity go down ? And Louis is way, way a better prospect than Ellis ever was. In the 10 or so games that Lou DID get over 30 minutes, he has shot over 48 % from the field, and over 42 % from the 3 Pt line. He's averaged over 18 Pts a game, and has averaged over 10 + FT attempts in those games.


How you can call that NOT productive is beyond me, and anyone else here with a normal brain

lol. why do u think he got that many minutes? when a bench player gets an unusually high amount of minutes is because they are playing unusually well. if he's playing like crap he's going to get benched and not log 30 minutes.

[yunggunz]

<<Louis Williams was universally ranked #4 in his highschool class for SG's. Monta was either 2 or 3 on everyones list.>>

Can't find all the high school rankings, but Louis Williams was on the first team in several widely read surveys; sixth in the 'insidehoops' survey (not sixth for SGs, but sixth overall).

I also believe that he was first team on a 2004 Sport News survey, though dropped slightly in 2005. Can't remember all the details. I'm not putting Monta Ellis down. He generally ranked a point or two ahead...but not among guards, among top-five players.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/preps/ba ... boys_x.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naismith_P ... f_the_Year

http://www.parade.com/articles/editions ... featured_2

http://www.insidehoops.com/high-school.shtml

All those things you posted overrate players that went to powerhouse schools. Making an all-usa team is a heck of a lot different than where you are ranked by scouts.

This ranking is about as accurate as any as far as how well regarded each player was as a prospect:
http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p= ... 005&cfg=bb


with Monta falling behind webster because of his knees and webster catpulting above Green because of concerns with Greens 9 fingers.

[loserX]

Moving to the Player Comparison Board.

[NetsForce]

Louis Williams is officially in the running for the most overrated player of the 2007-2008 NBA Season.

[WiltForever]

[quote="yunggunz"]-=This ranking is about as accurate as any as far as how well regarded each player was as a prospect:
http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p= ... 005&cfg=bb


Yung,

Please forgive me for being underwhelmed. All players in the top-15 (Williams would appear to be ranked 15th) are 'five stars'.

Among the top 15 are seven guards. Among the seven guards, it looks like the distinguished panel of scouts 'scored' with two/three counting Lou Williams. And only four players, perhaps five in total, look like they'll be solid NBA starters: Bynum, Ellis, Webster, Williams and (we'll see) Tyler Hansbrough.

But among guards, the panel pick Greg Paulus as the first guard (still playing at Duke; unimpressive stats),Gerald Green as two (remember him!) and Mario Chalmers (12.3 ppg as a J-Hawks junior; maybe he'll climb the mountain). Then: Ellis.

Next: Byron Eaton (an Oklahoma State junior, 9 ppg). Then Webster (they seemed to miss that one too)

And finally Williams.

Other picks ahead Ellis (and of course Williams): Julian Wright and Josh McRoberts. Too soon to tell, I would think, but obviously neither is an impact player.

Then ahead of Webster(and of course Williams): Tasmin Mitchel (an LSU junior; 6.7 ppg), Andray Blatche (good upside, but a future NBA starter?), Amir Johnson (already moved from the Pistons to the Heat; gets lots of minutes on a team with the second worst record in the NBA), Byron Eaton (an Oklahoma State junior; 9.3 ppg).

Then the wise ones put Keith Brumbaugh ahead of Williams (left Oklahama State after shoplifting; was reported 'working out' with John Lucas) and Tyler Hansbrough (great college player; will he make it to the next level? let's see).

Anyway, you'll excuse me if I'm underwhelmed. It would appear that scouts are batting around .330...or less.