RealGM

If your team is in the NBA Finals, which scenario would you rather see?


OPTION A
Your Team is behind 3-2 in the finals but you have HOME-Court Advantage, and you would have Games 6 & 7 at HOME.

Or


OPTION B
Your Team is behind 0-2 in the series and you are the ROAD Team, but you have games 3, 4 and 5 at HOME followed by games 6 and 7 on the ROAD?


NOTE: In both scenarios both teams are equal,
(i.e) Detroit vs Spurs in 2005

Option B easily. A is one game from elimination. Backs against the wall. Nearly dead. Best case scenario is a game 7 win.

Option B is a situation where you just need to protect home court and carry that momentum into Game 6. Best case scenario is wrapping it up in game 6 like Dallas-Miami.

This is pretty simple; Down 1 game versus down 2 games.

Bgil wrote:Option B easily.

Uhh no. If you're down 0-2, you're team most likely has serious issues. You still have to play that team twice on the road, which is as good as making it 0-3 if you're even lucky enough to get a win against their homecourt advantage. To win the series you need to win 4 of the next 5 games.

I would rather be in a situation where i only need to win 2 games straight at home.

Option A means you have to win two straight games. Option B means you have to go 4-1, which might already be harder than getting two straight. On top of that, you're going to have to go on the road. B is a tougher situation IMO.

Option A for the reasons mentioned above.

i go with option A. having to win 2 games > having to win four games. in both scenarios you have to win at least one road game anyway.

chrice wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Uhh no. If you're down 0-2, you're team most likely has serious issues. You still have to play that team twice on the road, which is as good as making it 0-3 if you're even lucky enough to get a win against their homecourt advantage. To win the series you need to win 4 of the next 5 games.

I would rather be in a situation where i only need to win 2 games straight at home.

Not really. IF the team is a great team how could they have issues. It would be like if the Spurs played the Celtics in the finals this year. If the Celtics go up 2-0 on them, it doesn't mean that the Spurs are bad, it just means Boston is good at home.

Didn't you have this scenario a few months ago?

Flash3 wrote:Didn't you have this scenario a few months ago?

Nope, it was different.

I believe I had would you rather be up 3-2 with games 6 and 7 on the road, or would you rather be down 3-2 with games 6 and 7 at home.

Statistically, your odds are better with option A.

If I remember correctly, the 04 Pistons and 06 Heat are the only teams to win all 3 games at home.

Ooops, guess I was looking at it differently. I chose A being a season ticket holder, was thinking I would want the opportunity to watch those next two games at home, and see us potentially win a Championship on our floor. Plus, the only being down 1 game.

FIRST GAME:
Option A: have home court advantage, if you lose you're done. If you are evenly matched with your opponent, but have home court, let's say you have a roughly 53% chance of winning the first game.
Option B: don't have home court advantage, and if you lose you're down 3-0. No NBA team has ever come back from being down 3-0 in a playoff series, EVER. Let's say you have a 47% chance of winning the first game (no home court), and if you go down 3-0, you still have a 3% chance of winning the series (these are just estimated probabilities, but are probably roughly correct)

REST OF SERIES:
Option A: at this point, you just have to win 1 game, and you have home court advantage. With home court you have a roughly 53% chance of winning the series at this point
Option B: you must win 3 of the next 4, and there is essentially no home court advantage for either team. If each team has a 50% shot at winning each game, I calculated your chance of winning the series to be 31.25%

COMBINED:
Option A: ~28.1% chance of winning if you are down 3-2 (0.53*0.53)
Option B: ~17.7% chance of winning if you are down 2-0 (0.47*0.3125 + 0.03)


So option A is substantially better. They're only equal if you have an 13.4% chance of coming back from a 3-0 deficit (instead of the 3% chance that I estimated), which is clearly not the case, as no NBA team has ever done it.

Option A

If you are down 3-2 in the series, it's probably been close, and you will have a shot.

If you are down 0-2 in the series, it can be tough to fight back from.