Last four years: Dirk v. Kobe, who's better?

[Jules Winnfield]

John Hollinger asserted today that Dirk has been a better player than Kobe for the past four years.

So who was better? Dirk or Kobe?

[farzi]

Dirk's teams have had more success, he lead them to the finals, and he won the MVP.

Kobe played with some bad players and got into the playoffs, but hasn't ever been a true threat to get out of the first round until this year.

The Mavericks success will skew this, but imo its Bryant

[tsherkin]

I'm inclined to side with Kobe here. He's been a better defender even at his worst moments, he's been a better playmaker and is clearly a better scorer.

I don't see anything that actually compels me to place Dirk in the same tier as Bryant. Kobe has not had the benefit of the kind of team Dirk has enjoyed until this year and, lo and behold, even without their starting center, the Lakers are one of the best teams in the league.

Dirk has choked out in the Finals, then in the first round, and is presently posting his worst 3P% in 4 or 5 years. He's been on in the last call it third of the season (especially since coming back from injury) but he's having a season that's far below what Kobe's managed this past half-decade or so and that's not something that really changes as you look back. Kobe's been a demonic scorer and has willed his team into the playoffs. He didn't have any success there but that's hardly something you want to use against him after Dirk's performance against the Heat and Warriors.

So yeah. I saw that comment in the chat, it was pretty ridiculous, especially in context with Kobe's achievements so far this season.

Dirk was an outstanding scorer in 04-05 and 05-06; he won the MVP last year because he was the best player on the best team, not because he was the MVP.

But against Kobe?

Nuh-uh.

Kobe wins, hands-down.

[HarlemHeat37]

I would have to say Kobe, for the reasons tsherkin mentioned..defense is the key factor here..Dirk is a decent defender, but Kobe is all-NBA defense..that alone is enough for me to put Kobe ahead of Dirk, since offense is obviously comparable..there also has to be a mention of the finals and first round performances..I think that hurt him heavily and will definitely affect his legacy(unless he wins the big one)..

I do find that Nowitzki has become kind of underrated though..I see too many PF's listed ahead of him on lists when they shouldn't be..he's still a top 10 player in the NBA, and he wasn't the only guy that choked during the finals and the series vs. Golden State..I realize the best player is going to get the glory and the blame, but it seems as if Dirk is the only one getting ANY negative reactions from those 2 series..he's improved as a passer and defender..

I would still like to see him get more physical..for example, when he plays the Spurs, I've noticed he RARELY scores when Tony Parker is covering him, because he ALWAYS takes a turnaround jumper from far away..obviously easier said than done though, since some guys just aren't comfortable playing a certain style..

[tsherkin]

Ahead of him, you should have a hard time compiling a big list.

Garnett is the only PF I can think of who'd I would clearly take ahead of Dirk, though that is on account of the fact that I consider Duncan a 5 (and Duncan is obviously better than Dirk).

At this point, for a single season, Dirk's also got more value than Dwight because he's a much more consistent scorer. You could say the same of Amare, actually.

Over time, of course, I'd take either Dwight or Amare over Dirk because they're younger (and Dwight's way more efficient and a massively superior rebounder, blah blah) but that doesn't change how talented Dirk really is.

I agree with Harlem that he needs to grow a pair and be more active about taking advantage of mismatches. He was getting better about this for a while but his matchups against San Antonio and Golden State really highlight how inconsistent about this he really is.

It is true that he's improved as a passer and defender, and noticeably so in both categories.

[TMU]

Being the PER guy, Hollinger's claims is simply based on statistics put up by the two players during the regular season. I don't think he's talking about the playoffs at all.

[Jules Winnfield]

Speaking of which, is there anywhere to find "Playoff PER?"

[conleyorbust]

Bryan (Boulder): To be MVP, Chris Paul should be recognized as the best player in the game. That's what more I want. If Kobe isn't the MVP - and by the way PER is merely an indicator not a precise reflection of value - than why do the vast majority of players, coaches, and GMs routinely cite him as the league's best player?

John Hollinger: No, it doesn't mean best player, it means best season. You'd still draft Kobe ahead of Paul until he proved he could repeat his level of play this year -- but there's no question he's played better than Kobe in 2007-08.

Quote:
Pristo, NYC: So what your saying is that since Dirk has outperformed KOBE for four straight year in PER, you consider him a better player? Would anyone in the world take Dirk over Kobe? I didn't think so.

John Hollinger: Over the past four years, DIrk has been the best player on a conference champion, had a 67-win season, and won the MVP. Pretty good resume, no?


Josh Boston : Are you saying Dirk is better than Kobe now your just talking Crazy

John Hollinger: "is better" is always a loaded term ... let's put it this way -- look at the past four seasons and try to prove Kobe played better.

Just to be squared away here, that is what was said.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I'd lean toward Kobe as well, but the gap between them isn't very large. Over the past 4 seasons, Dirk has shot better from everywhere -- 2pt range, 3pt range, free throw line. Dirk's has a better PER over the 4 seasons, a better Win Score per 40 minutes (David Berri's metric from Wages of Wins), and a significantly better offensive rating.

Kobe scores more on a per 40 basis (30.7 to 27.1), and (as would be expected by their positions) Kobe gets more assists and steals while Dirk gets more rebounds and blocks. Kobe commits more turnovers.

Kobe pulls ahead because of his defense, although Dirk has been a solid defender in recent years.

I personally don't buy the "Dirk as choker" theory, despite the bad series against Golden State last season. It was just the previous season that he helped lead his team to the NBA Finals. It's an interesting question, and (again) I'd take Kobe in a straight pick 'em. But it's actually pretty close.

[JordansBulls]

I'd lean toward Kobe as well, but the gap between them isn't very large. Over the past 4 seasons, Dirk has shot better from everywhere -- 2pt range, 3pt range, free throw line. Dirk's has a better PER over the 4 seasons, a better Win Score per 40 minutes (David Berri's metric from Wages of Wins), and a significantly better offensive rating.

Kobe scores more on a per 40 basis (30.7 to 27.1), and (as would be expected by their positions) Kobe gets more assists and steals while Dirk gets more rebounds and blocks. Kobe commits more turnovers.

Kobe pulls ahead because of his defense, although Dirk has been a solid defender in recent years.

I personally don't buy the "Dirk as choker" theory, despite the bad series against Golden State last season. It was just the previous season that he helped lead his team to the NBA Finals. It's an interesting question, and (again) I'd take Kobe in a straight pick 'em. But it's actually pretty close.

Also something that makes it even closer is the following:

1.)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... early.html

2007-08 NBA Chris Paul 50
2006-07 NBA Dirk Nowitzki 51
2005-06 NBA Dirk Nowitzki 52
2004-05 NBA Dirk Nowitzki 47

Dirk has led in Win Shares 3 of the last 4 seasons.


2.)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... early.html
Dirk has led 2x in Win Shares Above Average

2007-08 NBA Chris Paul 22.50
2006-07 NBA Dirk Nowitzki 24.00
2005-06 NBA Dirk Nowitzki 23.00


3.)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... early.html
Dirk has led 2x in Offensive Win Shares as well

2007-08 NBA Chris Paul 35.55
2006-07 NBA Dirk Nowitzki 35.55
2005-06 NBA Dirk Nowitzki 38.23



4.)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... early.html
Dirk has led 2x in PER as well

2007-08 NBA LeBron James 29.21
2006-07 NBA Dirk Nowitzki 27.59
2005-06 NBA Dirk Nowitzki 28.06

[tsherkin]

I personally don't buy the "Dirk as choker" theory, despite the bad series against Golden State last season. It was just the previous season that he helped lead his team to the NBA Finals.

Having observed him perform poorly in MANY playoff series, I have to disagree regarding his status as a choker.

[eatyourchildren]

I think Dirk will tell you quite readily himself that Kobe's been the better player for the past however many years.

[conleyorbust]

Honestly I think Kobe is the better player even though Dirk can cause the most matchup problems (which is why his +/- has been astronomical - top 5 every year since they started tracking it on 82games in 02-03).

However, as strange as it sounds, no one will let Dirk win this one. If you go by numbers and say that Dirk is more efficient (PER) and helps his team win more (+/-), you will get ridiculed for being a "stat geek who doesn't watch games" and told that Kobe has the defense, clutchness, and intangibles on Dirk. The only way to argue that is to point to team success but if you ever mention Kobe and team success, you get lambasted for 8 pages about Smush Parker and Kwame Brown.

At the end of the day, the prevelant argument is that Kobe is "better because other players say he is" but many of those other players are legitimately not that smart and/or don't watch and analyze other players on anything but the most superficial level.

Kobe may be better than Dirk, but results of the past few years aren't going to conclusively support it and the argument that Kobe can impact a game in more ways than Dirk doesn't mean as much when his team is regularly winning 20+ fewer games.

[JordansBulls]

-= original quote snipped =-



Having observed him perform poorly in MANY playoff series, I have to disagree regarding his status as a choker.

I am not even a Dirk fan but you actually believe that he is a choker?


Here are some of Dirk's

Game 3 2001 First Round
http://www.nba.com/games/20010428/UTADAL/boxscore.html?nav=ArticleList



Game 5 2001 Semifinals
http://www.nba.com/playoffs2001/semi/west1/recap_dal_sas_010514.html?nav=ArticleList
http://www.nba.com/games/20010514/DALSAS/boxscore.html?nav=ArticleList

Except for Dirk Nowitzki, who scored a career-high 42 points and had 18 rebounds

Game 5 2002 Semfinals
http://www.nba.com/games/20020513/DALSAC/recap.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20020513/DALSAC/boxscore.html

Nowitzki registered 32 points and 12 rebounds and Michael Finley scored 26 points for the Mavericks, who had won three of four this season at ARCO Arena, including Game 2.

Game 1 2003 First Round
http://www.nba.com/games/20030419/PORDAL/recap.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20030419/PORDAL/boxscore.html

Nowitzki poured in a playoff career-high 46 points and grabbed 10 rebounds as the Mavericks used a big second half to rally for a 96-86 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers in the opener of their Western Conference first-round series.

Game 3 2003 First Round
http://www.nba.com/games/20030425/DALPOR/recap.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20030425/DALPOR/recap.html

Nowitzki scored 16 of his 42 points in the fourth quarter as the Mavericks took a commanding 3-0 lead in their Western Conference first-round series with a 115-103 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers.

Game 7 2003 First Round
http://www.nba.com/games/20030504/PORDAL/recap.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20030504/PORDAL/boxscore.html

Nowitzki scored 12 of his 31 points in the fourth quarter as the Mavericks finally advanced to the Western Conference semifinals with a 107-95 victory over the persistent Portland Trail Blazers.

Game 7 2003 Semifinals
http://www.nba.com/games/20030517/SACDAL/boxscore.html

Nowitzki had another clutch performance with 30 points and 19 rebounds to lift the Mavericks into the Western Conference finals for the first time in 15 years with a 112-99 victory over the Sacramento Kings.

Game 1 2003 WCF
http://www.nba.com/games/20030519/DALSAS/recap.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20030519/DALSAS/boxscore.html

Nowitzki contributed 38 points and 15 rebounds

Dirk was injured in Games 4, 5 and 6 and the Mavs lost 4-2.



Game 1 2004 First Round
http://www.nba.com/games/20040418/DALSAC/recap.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20040418/DALSAC/boxscore.html

Dirk Nowitzki had 32 points and 13 rebounds for Dallas

Game 5 2004 First Round
http://www.nba.com/games/20040429/DALSAC/recap.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20040429/DALSAC/boxscore.html

Nowitzki had 31 points and 14 rebounds

Game 7 2006 Semifinals
http://www.nba.com/games/20060522/DALSAS/recap.html
Nowitzki had 37 points and 15 rebounds for the fourth-seeded Mavericks

Nowitzki had 37 points and 15 rebounds for the fourth-seeded Mavericks

Game 5 2006 WCF
http://www.nba.com/games/20060601/PHXDAL/recap.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20060601/PHXDAL/boxscore.html

Nowitzki scored 22 of his franchise playoff-record 50 points in the final period to power the Dallas Mavericks to a 117-101 victory over the Suns in the pivotal fifth game of the Western Conference finals

He may not have been the best all the time, but he was big a lot of times.

[kooldude]

Dirk's been good in many playoffs games except the last few years which is what people will remember the most.

[tsherkin]

I am not even a Dirk fan but you actually believe that he is a choker?

I dunno if "choker" is the right term, because he's come up in big moments before but he's had some BAD years.

The '06 Finals come to mind, the Warriors series... obviously.

He was pretty bad in 04-05; shot about 40% from the floor, 33% from downtown, even his FT shooting was down (but for Dirk, that means like 83% FT, so it's not so bad). And that was against Houston and the Suns.

[ponder276]

For their position (i.e. comparing Kobe to other SGs, comparing Dirk to other PFs):


Better defender: Kobe
- No explanation needed, Kobe is a great defender, Dirk is average

Better play maker: Tie
- Both are among the top play makers at their respective positions

Better rebounder: Slight edge to Kobe
- Over the last 4 years Dirk has been one of the better rebounding PFs, but probably is not even in the top 5 at his position. Kobe has been at least a top 3 rebounding SG over the last 4 years.

Better in the clutch/playoffs: Kobe
- Both are great clutch players in the regular season, but Kobe performs better in clutch playoff situations. Dirk plays well in general in the playoffs, but often chokes when his team needs him most

Better scorer: Slight edge to Kobe
- Dirk has been probably the best scorer at PF, but Kobe has also been the best scorer at his position, and has been the best scorer in the league over the past 4 years, with 2 scoring titles, and a 35.4 ppg season. He has been the highest scoring SG for 3 of the last 4 years (AI beat him in 04/05, and even then, is AI really a SG?)



Also, most will tell you that over the last 4 years, Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett have been better PFs than Dirk. Kobe has been without a doubt the best SG in the league over the same time span. Plus there is a good argument that Kobe has been the best player in the league, period, over the last 4 years, but nobody is gonna make that argument for Dirk. Kobe has obviously not won as much as Dirk, but look at their supporting casts - Dirk has been working with great players, Kobe was been working with sh*t. Give me Kobe.

[JordansBulls]

For their position (i.e. comparing Kobe to other SGs, comparing Dirk to other PFs):


Better in the clutch/playoffs: Kobe
- Both are great clutch players in the regular season, but Kobe performs better in clutch playoff situations. Dirk plays well in general in the playoffs, but often chokes when his team needs him most

I have a problem with this statement. Check the post above regarding Dirk.

http://www.82games.com/random12.htm

Game Winning Shot Opportunity = 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 points.

Dirk Nowitzki 7 19 .368 6 10 0 2
Kobe Bryant 7 32 .219 8 9 0 1

Now I am not supporting either player here, but at least make sure the information is accurate.

[conleyorbust]

For their position (i.e. comparing Kobe to other SGs, comparing Dirk to other PFs):

Without going into any of the things you said, "who has been the better player over the past few seasons" doesn't exactly mean, "who has dominanted more skill catergories based on their position".

[TheSecretWeapon]

-= original quote snipped =-



Having observed him perform poorly in MANY playoff series, I have to disagree regarding his status as a choker.

I'm glad you backed off "choker". Using Berri's Win Score, Dirk's career playoff production is 94% of his regular season production -- the average playoff drop-off leaguewide (according to MikeG at APBRmetrics) is about 5%. Dirk's "drop-off" for the playoffs is about 6%. There's obviously some variability in there.

The year they went to the Finals, Dirk's playoff production was 8% better than his regular season. The year before that, it was 69% of his regular season play. Last season, his playoff performance was about 19% less productive than his regular season.

And just in the "for what it's worth category" -- Kobe's career playoff performance is about 70% of his regular season production. His career per minute playoff numbers are down 10% or more in points, rebounds and steals. His shooting percentages are down in the playoffs -- notably from the FT line.

Just for kicks, I decided to compare age for age -- since Dirk didn't make the playoffs until age 22, I removed from the equation Kobe's playoffs before age 22. Kobe's playoff production was still only 71% of his regular season production. If I let back in the 99-00 Lakers (which won a title), Kobe's playoff production goes DOWN to 68% of his regular season play. Interesting.