RealGM

Does anyone REALLY think there will be 4-5 HOF players in this year's draft. (add the RealGM Mock Draft's chances for players to be getting into the HOF to get this total) Now that we have 30 teams and roughly the same number of players getting into the HOF each year, the standards have gotten tougher. I would be very surprised to see more than 2 players get in. This is supposed to be a good draft but it's not even as strong as last year's at the top and the injury to Oden plus the steep learning curve still facing Kevin Durant show the difficulty of drafting sure HOF players.

I'm in agreement, people get way to enthralled with young talent. Frankly the term HOF can be tossed out there way to easy without really looking at how difficult an accomplishment that is to achieve. You got to first be able to reach so form of elite play, then realistically be able to keep it at that level for at least 10 year period (if not more). Personally when I look at the draft class I wouldn't say there is a single HOF. Thats not because these isn't the chance but honestly there is nothing factual you can take from one of these players and say for certain he is gonna be in.

D-Rose will have a tough time getting to the Hall of Fame with Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Brandon Roy.

From 1968 to 1998:

2
1
5
0
2
0
1
1
3
0
1
1
1
1
2
1
4
3
2
3 or 4
0
0 or 1
1
1
2
0 or 1
1
1
4 or 5
2
2 or 3

Chances are there'll be 1 or 2 HOFers.

wiggles, your assessment on several of those years seem too much to me.

I'm guessing the bottom part is more recent.

1998-Until this year, I'd have said 1. Now Pierce has a good chance. Carter is a flat no. Am I missing anyone?

1996-Kobe, Nash, AI, who else? I only see Ray Allen getting in if the Celtics win multiple championships.

1993-Nobody.

That said, on average about 1.5 get in per year, so guessing that there will be 2 this year, when we've got 2 who seem to clearly be the cream of the crop makes sense.

I'd kind of like to see who you got as HOF from about 90 on Wiggles.

3 HOF guys tops in this draft. Though where those % on that mock are gathered i would love to hear, because some of them made no sense at all.

I also thought that was pretty ridiculous.

Doctor MJ wrote:
1998-Until this year, I'd have said 1. Now Pierce has a good chance. Carter is a flat no. Am I missing anyone?

Carter gets a mention but not Dirk?

I think Dirk should be HOF... occupying a place with Barkley.

Dirk will be in the HOF hands down .

I wonder how many players are in the hall of fame without ever being on an all-NBA first team.

Can you really see Brandon Roy, Carmello Anthony, or Paul Pierce as a first team all-NBA player?

The recent HOFers who never made the all-NBA first team:
Adrian Dantley, Joe Dumars, Robert Parish, James Worthy

Other than Dantley, the key to making it without a NBA first selection seems to be being a good sidekick on a dynasty.

No, there won't be 5 HOF players. It won't be that good of a draft.

More to the point...draft hype makes ok players into good players, good players into very good players, and and very good players into Hall of Fame players. Here's a list of players that were picked in the top 9 between 1984 and 1995

Sam Perkins
Alvin Robertson
Otis Thorpe
Xavier McDaniel
Charles Oakley
Chris Mullin
Brad Daugherty
Chuck Person
Kevin Johnson
Horace Grant
Mitch Richmond
Glen Rice
Penny Hardaway
Jamal Mashburn
Vin Baker
Glenn Robinson
Antonio McDyess
Rasheed Wallace

Those are all very good players--and I'm leaving out others that are just a little below that very high level. KJ probably has a shot at the HOF...the others probably won't make it. Most aren't that close. There are 20 people from those drafts that I figure are going into the Hall. So, if you add the first list to the people that are actual HOF players...you get about 3 or 4 players per year, on average. 2 or so in a bad year; 5 or 6 in a terrific year. This is not a particularly good draft, IMO. We're more likely to have 1 or 2 HOF players, and 1 or 2 players like the ones on the list.

This just shows that we get carried away with our expectations in the draft. BAsed on dxpectations (and, really, our wishes), we think people the players like the ones on the list are HOF players when they're in the draft. They aren't. But you'd be crazy to think that any of those wasn't a top level player for a good number of years. Michael Beasley is a great player and all, but if he as a career comparable to Thorpe or Sheed...would that be so bad? If you draft a SF, and he only is as good as Chuck Person--who averaged about 19-6-4 for seven consecutive years--is that a blown #6 pick?

A few years ago, when Tyson Chandler got drafted, I commented that if he had a career as good as Sam Perkins, he'd be lucky. I was screamed at, laughed at, and dismissed. But that's pretty typical of how we get ahead of ourselves in the draft. We think of best case scenarios as being something other than unrealistic. It's possible Derrick Rose will be the next Walt Frazier. Or Kevin Johnson. Or Alvin Robertson. Or Terry Porter. Or Mike Bibby. Those are all very good players. Only one is in the HOF. We just get ahead of ourselves.

GWgw wrote:I wonder how many players are in the hall of fame without ever being on an all-NBA first team.

Tommy Heinsohn, Sam Jones (elected to Top 50 team), Hal Greer (elected to Top 50 team), Dave Cowens (elected to Top 50 team), Robert Parrish(elected to Top 50 team), James Worthy (elected to Top 50 team), and there are more.

The basketball HOF is not like Baseball or Footballs, they pretty much let anyone in.

ss_maverick wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Carter gets a mention but not Dirk?

Dirk's pretty much a lock. I was commenting on "2 or 3" making it from the class.

4-5 is a bit much.


Guys with best chance are Beasley, Rose, and Mayo.

1-2 is more realistic projection in any class.

Cammo101 wrote:The basketball HOF is not like Baseball or Footballs, they pretty much let anyone in.

I think you'll find that basketball mostly gets too lenient with sidekicks on great teams, which I know is true in at lest football as well. Baseball on the other hand is too lenient with good but not great players who stick around for long enough.

Doctor MJ wrote:wiggles, your assessment on several of those years seem too much to me.

I'm guessing the bottom part is more recent.

1998-Until this year, I'd have said 1. Now Pierce has a good chance. Carter is a flat no. Am I missing anyone?

1996-Kobe, Nash, AI, who else? I only see Ray Allen getting in if the Celtics win multiple championships.

1993-Nobody.

That said, on average about 1.5 get in per year, so guessing that there will be 2 this year, when we've got 2 who seem to clearly be the cream of the crop makes sense.

I'd kind of like to see who you got as HOF from about 90 on Wiggles.

Okay so from 90 on...

1 - Payton
1 - Mutombo
2 - Shaq, Mourning (Mourning isn't borderline IMO)
0 or 1 - Nobody except maybe Webber
1 - Kidd
1 - Garnett
4 or 5 - AI, Kobe, Nash, maybe Ray Allen/JO/Camby, depending on future
2 - Duncan, McGrady
2 or 3 - Dirk, Pierce/Carter/Doleac

I think the chances are good that Ray Allen and Pierce and Carter will get in; I think Dirk is a lock already; and you never know what JO or Camby might do in the next few years, they could accumulate enough stats/accolades to make it them decent candidates.

As far as HOFers in the draft, TrueLAfan really nailed it. Kevin Johnson probably won't ever make the HOF, but would a team be disappointed to draft a KJ clone? Hell no. As far as good-but-not-HOF players in each draft, like True said there are probably at least 4 every draft (except for abysmal drafts).