RealGM

Maybe I dont know how much value that Andris has; he is young and put up 10 and 10 for Golden State. What type of player do you see him becoming in the future and where does he rank as a C today?

Personally I wouldnt put him above Howard, Amare, Yao, Bynum, Jefferson, Horford, Oden, Okur, Bogut, Oakafor, Kaman, Chandler, Rasheed Wallace, Big Z, and Camby

I would take him over Camby and Sheed due to age. Otherwise he's about on par with Bynum (unproven), Bogut (peaked?), Kaman (solid), Okafor (injuries) right now.

i think he's clearly below bynum, bogut, kaman, okafor.

You mean the guy that only makes shots on uncontested layups? I'd say he would be a decent starter, probably will never be an allstar.

Well, if you think its so clear, maybe you could take a minute to explain your point.

well, take andrew bynum for example. he's a superior shot blocker, takes care of the ball better, not as reliant on getting buckets from others due to a better post game, comparable rebounder, better post defender due to his size, better at drawing fouls, not as foul prone. i'm not really sure there's anything biedrins is better at. probably running the floor or having the freedom to crash the offensive glass.

when a player is better than another at seemingly every facet of the game, they're not on the same level.

with guys like andrew bogut, its not even close. i don't think you saw what he was doing in the 2nd half of the season if you even question if he's peaked. ten games in april 17/11/65%, ten games in march 16/11/54%. 20 games of excellent play. will he continue it? who knows, but i don't think its fair to think he's peaked at 14/10/51% when he's finally getting a chance to direct the offense and excelling.

Andris is severely underused, he gets inconsistent minutes, partly due to foul trouble but mainly due to Nelson being in love with small ball.

He's an improving offensive player, has a better touch from around the basket people give him credit for and has tremendously improved his FT shooting and finishing ability. His main asset though is his rebounding, he's a terrific offensive rebounder and really uses his long arms. I think if he can improve his conditioning and get a coach that can utilize him more, he can be a big time player in this league, meaning I wouldn't be surprised if he turned into a

17 point, 12 rebound and 2 block per game guy on nearly 58-60%.

Not at the level of Bynum are others because their potential is higher, but definitely one of the better centers in the league.

At 17 ppg, I doubt Biedrins maintains 58%+ from the field, more like 53% to 55% because to score more, he'll have to create for himself which will invariably be lower-percentage because he's not Shaq.

tsherkin wrote:At 17 ppg, I doubt Biedrins maintains 58%+ from the field, more like 53% to 55% because to score more, he'll have to create for himself which will invariably be lower-percentage because he's not Shaq.

That's reasonable, lol.

Having said that, Biedrins IS a compelling talent. I think he's going to eventually learn how to score on his own once he frees himself from the oppressive and ridiculous Don Nelson. Nelson's one of the most innovative coaches I've ever seen... or he was, 10 years ago. Since then, he's pretty much fallen into old-man habits; he's frustratingly unwilling to change certain basic elements of his approach to the game. Perhaps he's a curmudgeon or perhaps he hates the traditional but for whatever reason, he massively underutilizes frontcourt assets in favor of small-ball and 5-out alignments that heavily emphasize isolation ball and undersized lineups that don't win in the postseason.

Ugh.

Fire Nellie!

I agree that 17/12/2 on 55% shooting is probably his projection. I'd be perfectly happy with that. It doesn't put him up in the top tier with guys like Dwight, Yao and the projected futures of Oden or Bynum but it's in the top 6-8 Cs in the league.

tsherkin wrote:...once he frees himself from the oppressive and ridiculous Don Nelson. Nelson's one of the most innovative coaches I've ever seen... or he was, 10 years ago. Since then, he's pretty much fallen into old-man habits; he's frustratingly unwilling to change certain basic elements of his approach to the game. Perhaps he's a curmudgeon or perhaps he hates the traditional but for whatever reason, he massively underutilizes frontcourt assets in favor of small-ball and 5-out alignments that heavily emphasize isolation ball and undersized lineups that don't win in the postseason.

Ugh.

Fire Nellie!

For someone whom I assume isn't a Warriors fan, you sure hit the nail on the head. The GSW board is counting down the days until Nelson leaves.

gswhoops wrote:I agree that 17/12/2 on 55% shooting is probably his projection. I'd be perfectly happy with that. It doesn't put him up in the top tier with guys like Dwight, Yao and the projected futures of Oden or Bynum but it's in the top 6-8 Cs in the league.

That'd be outstanding production... he wouldn't be scoring enough to stick with those you mentioned... but who cares? That's still elite production. 17/12, even without the shot0-blocking, is valuable. Especially from Biedrins, too, because most of his points come from off the ball and that means he's not a possession-hog bogging down an offense.

For someone whom I assume isn't a Warriors fan, you sure hit the nail on the head. The GSW board is counting down the days until Nelson leaves.

See, I like the Warriors, I like the city... I just don't like Golden State, you follow? Their GM is an idiot and their coach is just as bad. They'd be a lot better if it weren't for those two issues, something that has been painfully apparent in more than one city around the league. Savvy GMs and good coaches able to adapt to the times and their players are rare and valuable commodities. Nelson is long past his days as a good coach.

tsherkin wrote:See, I like the Warriors, I like the city... I just don't like Golden State, you follow? Their GM is an idiot and their coach is just as bad. They'd be a lot better if it weren't for those two issues, something that has been painfully apparent in more than one city around the league. Savvy GMs and good coaches able to adapt to the times and their players are rare and valuable commodities. Nelson is long past his days as a good coach.

Preaching to the choir. I was actually excited when Baron left, because it meant we could get Brand, or Smith, or Okafor...but instead we get Maggot.

gswhoops wrote:Preaching to the choir. I was actually excited when Baron left, because it meant we could get Brand, or Smith, or Okafor...but instead we get Maggot.

Well, Smith and Okafor are restricted, so there's on guarantee ANYONE will get them. Brand wouldn't have played, Nellie wouldn't have bothered to give him the ball ever and Brand can't isolate from the 3pt line, so all of Don's 5-out sets wouldn't have done anything good for Elton.

Still, if nothing else, Maggette is a decent rebounder and a guy who can slash from outside and draw fouls... that should help fill Baron's void a little. I worry about the point, though, I worry about that a lot. Baron, as much as I hated him as a scorer, was a brilliant playmaker.

If I was a Warriors fan, I'd be very happy with 17/12/2 on 55%. If that's how he projects, then considering his defensive capabilities, he's definitely going to be a player that a lot of teams would like to have. I would say that's a little above Bogut/Kaman's ceiling. Probably not too far off from Bynum's peak, either, IMO. And for all the jockers who think otherwise, let the kid prove what he can product over the course of a season before you stick him with the superstar label. At this point, I would probably take Beans' limited production if I know I can get him for 80 games a season.

eh, if you think people are "jockers" for thinking bynum has a higher ceiling than 17 ppg then you're just tainted by people who set unrealistic expectations and are lashing out. yeah bynum only played 35 games this season, but thats nearly half the season. its not some 5 game hot streak or one good month. there was nothing lucky or deceiving about his level of play. this wasn't some hot shooting streak where he was making impossible shots. his performance was consistent, use his length to get loose balls near the rim, use his hands to catch anything near him, use his quickness to explode to the rim. i don't really see whats unproven about those skills.

anywhoo, he scored 13 ppg in a little under 29 mpg. his post game was vastly improving to the point he was already scoring 17 ppg with regularity. thats not to say he's already a 17 ppg talent, but it doesn't take a "jocker" to see his skills and how they'll translate into an efficient 22-23 point scorer when he gets 34-35 mpg and is more involved in posting up.

Maybe I just didn't watch enough Warriors games but I don't see how you can compare Biedrins with guys like Bynum, Kaman or any of the other centers who actually can create their own shot. Does Biedrins even have a low post, back to the basket game? I've only seen him crash the boards and get shots or receive passes right next to the basket for layups or dunks. I seriously think his stats are inflated because of the Warriors' style of play.

GuyverX wrote:Maybe I just didn't watch enough Warriors games but I don't see how you can compare Biedrins with guys like Bynum, Kaman or any of the other centers who actually can create their own shot. Does Biedrins even have a low post, back to the basket game? I've only seen him crash the boards and get shots or receive passes right next to the basket for layups or dunks. I seriously think his stats are inflated because of the Warriors' style of play.

No, he doesn't, or certainly not that I've seen. The other things you mentioned he does very well but comparing him to guys like Bogut and Bynum is to take a pretty huge leap of faith with very little supporting evidence. He's shorter than them, lighter than them, his offensive game is not even remotely comparable to either of them, he's not as good a shot blocker or passer as either of them. His rebound rate is higher but not massively higher - and that's about it. He's older than Bymum and a year younger than Bogut but has been in the league a year longer than either of them.
10/10 centers who play good defense are valuable and I could see him maybe pushing up to 14/11 if he gets more minutes and/or their offensive philosophy changes, but his extemely limited offensive arsenal means he's unlikely to ever score more than that no matter how much he's given the ball imo. If he were to become more of a focus on offense and had to create his own shot his fg% would likely plummit down to the 50%-53% range, still good but nowhere near as efficient as he is currently where his primary offensive role consists of put backs and catches at the rim.

Bogut averaged around 16 ppg/10.5 rpg/3 apg/1.7 bl for the last 50 games last season - I find it unlikely Andris will ever better those numbers. His likely ceiling is around Tyson Chandler imo, a very solid center but one with a far lower ceiling than Bogut or Bynum - or Kaman for that matter.

paul wrote:

GuyverX wrote:Maybe I just didn't watch enough Warriors games but I don't see how you can compare Biedrins with guys like Bynum, Kaman or any of the other centers who actually can create their own shot. Does Biedrins even have a low post, back to the basket game? I've only seen him crash the boards and get shots or receive passes right next to the basket for layups or dunks. I seriously think his stats are inflated because of the Warriors' style of play.

No, he doesn't, or certainly not that I've seen.

He does, actually. He has a nice hook and a great feel for the ball around the basket. I agree that he's probably not as offensively gifted as a Kaman or Bynum, but he can do a lot more then just get put-backs and tip-ins.

Biedrins isn't as good at holding position because he's slimmer than both of them... and his footwork isn't staggering. He has nice touch around the rim out to, what gs, 10 feet?

Plus, moving without the ball is actually an important skill. It's the reason why guys like Antawn Jamison and Shawn Marion can score 18+ ppg without really having plays run for them... ever.

Anyway, Biedrins isn't meant to be a backdown center, he's not built for it and not classically trained for it. You're never going to turn yourself into a monster on the block at the NBA level if you haven't really been doing it for your entire basketball career... or if you're a hyper-athletic wing abusing smaller players and such-like, ala MJ, Kobe, Bernard King, Dominique Wilkins, etc. But they basically figured out the bump-and-fling and milked it for all it was worth, only MJ was a really developed post scorer ITO footwork and extensive moves.

Biedrins is a fine player and he definitely has a ceiling of higher than 14 ppg. Whether he reaches it is another story; Nelson can bark all he like about getting bigger guys (his comment regarding Turiaf) but everyone and his mom knows that he has no intention of playing his bigs large minutes, and that he doesn't even really know what he's doing with bigs anyhow.

Biedrins will probably settle in the 12-14 ppg range if he doesn't add new wrinkles to his offensive game but that's a pretty comfortable, Okafor-esque range. He's a $10M/yr player.