RealGM

If you were starting a franchise today who you got

Bosh, because so far he is the only one of the two that's proven to be a winning franchise centerpiece.

Right now, I'd be inclined to go with Bosh because of his passing, DrawF and the lack of significant advantage for Jefferson in anything but rebounding and that's positional, Jefferson plays much closer to the rim more frequently.

Having said that, if Al ever stops sucking at drawing fouls, there should be an immediate shift in his value and enough so to place him over Bosh because he's comparably (or more) efficient from the field, a better rebounder and a classic low-post option.

it's gonna be interesting to see how Bosh looks defensively next to a good defensive player like O'Neal..it might change some of the negative reputation he has gotten over the past few years and elevate his status(slightly)..

Bosh is the better player and i would take him for my team, but if i don't have a decent center, probably i would go for big Al.

Alex_De_Large wrote:Bosh is the better player and i would take him for my team, but if i don't have a decent center, probably i would go for big Al.

i'm not really sure why not having a descent center would steer you towards jefferson.

While the general perception is correct that Bosh plays away from the Basket and is thus an inferior player offensively with regards to post moves only, but every year we see Bosh getting better and better closer to the bucket with his back towards the basket. I think this year with a healthy Oniel you will see the improvement in defense, rebounding and his overall post play due to increased strength and conditioning.

I don't think Bosh needs to play in the post more often..he gets to the line at an extremely high rate, which is good enough IMO..

Bosh right now. If Jefferson worked on his (lack of) passing out of double and triple teams and drawing more contact down low, I would take him, but Bosh is simply the better player.

It's absurd how infrequently Jefferson gets to the line, especially since he operates primarily underneath the basket.

Bosh has the more complete game.

Bosh, Jefferson's still young, and I think he could be better, but he's much worse defender than Bosh, who's just an average defender at best.

dcash4 wrote:

Alex_De_Large wrote:Bosh is the better player and i would take him for my team, but if i don't have a decent center, probably i would go for big Al.

i'm not really sure why not having a descent center would steer you towards jefferson.

sorry i mean if my team is loaded of small guys and the only 2 tall players are scrubs, so bosh would need to play some minutes at center.

Oh my Bosh ! is this really a comparison ?

Yes, yes it is. Bosh is a fine player but so too is Al Jefferson. He's a better rebounder, a comparable shot-blocker and a more efficient scorer on comparable volume.

He doesn't seem to defend the 5 very well man-on, but then, neither does Bosh. He does reasonably well at the 4 (so does Chris).

Bosh strikes me as a better passer but he's a face-up guy who traditionally starts 10-20 feet from the rim, which affords him better passing opportunities, and he plays in a much more coherent offensive system with better players, so it's tough to tell. Al's a pure low-post guy, and they generally don't post much more than 3-4 apg at their best anyway (see Shaq's passing numbers in Orlando versus in L.A.).

Personally i think Al Jefferson will develop into a great player. A top 5 big man in the league maybe, but for now, he's not a top 10 big man, which is why im surprised he's being compared to Bosh when Bosh is being compared to Dirk and Amare.

AJ was one of the few 20-10 guys in the league, but on a Boston team with another premiere player he was a 16-10 guy. Bosh has been a model of consistency and a leader on his team. 2 years ago before the raptors made the playoffs, they were supposed to be a bottom feeder team, but because of Bosh and great coaching the made the playoffs and did it again last year to show it wasn't a fluke.
Although last year they had comparable scoring numbers, I didnt like how against good teams like New Orleans, Houston, San Antonio etc. Jefferson was basically locked down meanwhile he exploded against Eastern Conference teams as well as Phoenix (but everybody does)

TdotWattz wrote:AJ was one of the few 20-10 guys in the league, but on a Boston team with another premiere player he was a 16-10 guy.

Is that supposed to be a valid indictment of Al's stats?

He was in his third year in the league and was only getting 13 shots a game.

No but i mean any 2nd or 3rd option on another team that was about a 15-8-17-10 guy could have been a 20-10 guy on that Minnesota team last year....

guys like Josh Smith, Lamar Odom, Rasheed Wallace, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bogut would have probably dropped 20-10 in Al Jefferson's place if they were elevated to being the #1 scoring option on that team. Not saying that Al is in those guys category but i think Bosh could have done 27-11 on that team

TdotWattz wrote:No but i mean any 2nd or 3rd option on another team that was about a 15-8-17-10 guy could have been a 20-10 guy on that Minnesota team last year....

Do you really think so? How many of them had the chops to score 20+ from the low post exclusively without a sound PG, offensive system, decent coach or solid outside shooting?

guys like Josh Smith, Lamar Odom, Rasheed Wallace, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bogut would have probably dropped 20-10 in Al Jefferson's place if they were elevated to being the #1 scoring option on that team. Not saying that Al is in those guys category but i think Bosh could have done 27-11 on that team

Josh Smith can't even average 20 ppg on Atlanta; Rasheed Wallace has never been aggressive enough to score 20 ppg and only posted 19+ twice in his career with the Blazers, Odom has never been aggressive enough to score 20+ even when it's been needed from him, Pau Gasol is a good example, Bogut is not (yet) because he doesn't have the low-post game or the mid-range J to do it...

Bosh has never shown anything that indicates he has 27 ppg scoring in him, he's just not that good a scorer (that good, I mean, he's obviously a talented scorer).

tsherkin wrote:

TdotWattz wrote:No but i mean any 2nd or 3rd option on another team that was about a 15-8-17-10 guy could have been a 20-10 guy on that Minnesota team last year....

Do you really think so? How many of them had the chops to score 20+ from the low post exclusively without a sound PG, offensive system, decent coach or solid outside shooting?

guys like Josh Smith, Lamar Odom, Rasheed Wallace, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bogut would have probably dropped 20-10 in Al Jefferson's place if they were elevated to being the #1 scoring option on that team. Not saying that Al is in those guys category but i think Bosh could have done 27-11 on that team

Josh Smith can't even average 20 ppg on Atlanta; Rasheed Wallace has never been aggressive enough to score 20 ppg and only posted 19+ twice in his career with the Blazers, Odom has never been aggressive enough to score 20+ even when it's been needed from him, Pau Gasol is a good example, Bogut is not (yet) because he doesn't have the low-post game or the mid-range J to do it...

Bosh has never shown anything that indicates he has 27 ppg scoring in him, he's just not that good a scorer (that good, I mean, he's obviously a talented scorer).

Terk I disagree with that. Heres why Bosh in the middle of the season. If it wasnt for him getting back into game shape during the first 20 games or soof the season his scoring average would be much higher. This season i expect him to maybe be a 25point scorer.

young-skipp wrote:Terk I disagree with that. Heres why Bosh in the middle of the season. If it wasnt for him getting back into game shape during the first 20 games or soof the season his scoring average would be much higher. This season i expect him to maybe be a 25point scorer.

Not really. He had a month (13 games) where he averaged a hair under 28 ppg but he was at or under 22.2 ppg each month for the rest of the season. He also shot 58.7% during that month, which is way different than his customary FG%. Yeah, he can occasionally get hot, but I don't see him as someone capable of maintaining 26+ ppg over the course of a season. 25, maybe once or twice, but the way his game stands?

He'd need to either become more efficient from the floor (and he's already a roughly 50% FG guy and has been for years), turn himself into a deadly 3pt shooter (not likely to happen, since he's never taken more than 0.5 3PA/g over a season) or start drawing 10+ FTA/g (which is similarly unlikely). That, or he'd have to start taking more than 16 shots a game.

Remember, he's been within 0.2 of the same scoring average (22.5) for three consecutive seasons now... 22.5, 22.6, and 22.3. He's maintained roughly the same FG%, improved as a FT shooter and maintained about the same DrawF.

There's not a lot to indicate that a noteworthy leap in scoring average is likely to happen.

I agree with tsherk that it's very unlikely that Bosh ever becomes a 25 point scorer, but I'd like to point out that Bosh is already an unbelievably efficient player and already more efficient than Al Jefferson by a lot.

Bosh had an ORTG of 117 last year with a usage of 27.7%.
Al Jefferson had an ORTG 109 with a usage of 27.5%.

So with the same usage Bosh was a lot more efficient of a scorer. Likely because of his high free throw numbers.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... hch01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eal01.html