A Gasol deal complication

[evildallas]

Atlanta, because general manager Billy Knight drafted Gasol in Memphis, has a standing offer on the table for the Spaniard.

But because the Griz aren't dealing from a point of desperation, they are asking potential suitors to take Brian Cardinal and the remaining two years (totaling $13 million) on his contract off their hands.

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I've long suspected that any deal out of Memphis would try to move the worst contract in basketball (well one of them). That's a major obstacle. I have no idea what the standing offer is, but doing some trade checker work it seems like the type of deal that would work with the Cardinal caveat is this:
Lo Wright (expiring)
Ty Lue (expiring)
Shelden (rookie deal)
Zaza (1yr 4M)
Josh Childress (expiring)
Future 1st

for
Pau Gasol (3 yr 49.5M)
Brian Cardinal (2yr 13M)
Kyle Lowry (rookie deal)


I'm not sure they'd take that, but that's the ballpark financially. I'm sure they want more talent back, but taking Cardinal off their hands has to be worth something. Josh Childress could be changed to Marvin if necessary. Financially, it might be better to send Marvin and then not resign Josh Childress, but how does that make us that much better of a team? In keeping either one of them, we'd be flirting with the luxury tax to resign Josh Smith after such a deal and we'd definitely be over it the following year.

From Memphis's POV, if they resigned Childress, they'd still be 8M under the cap next season with 7M more coming off that year. If they let Childress go they'd instantly be 15M under the cap. Basically contract-wise, Cardinal and Lowry is approx. equal to Zaza and Shelden per year, but Zaza and Shelden end a year earlier.

The resulting lineup this year would be:
AJ/Lowry/Law
Joe/Mario
Marvin
Josh/Cardinal
Pau/Al/Solomon


Depth is gutted and we'd have to find some free agents just to fill in probably. Not sure of what lineup would start, but Joe, Josh, Marvin, Pau, and Al would all play big minutes. Atlanta is better after the deal, but I'm not sure they're good enough to make a run at a title. For instance, while we'd match up good against Detroit they'd still have the advantage at PG and bench.

AJ is the only expiring deal, so next season would be pretty much the same roster provided Josh is resigned. The year after that Marvin is the only question mark for resigning. Then finally Speedy and Cardinal come off the books and Joe's contract is up. That's a 2 and a half year window to make something happen with the roster as it stands.

I sure there are other ways to construct a deal for Gasol, but I'm not inclined to part with Josh Smith. The one thing that is certain from looking at the numbers is that if you gamble on Pau Gasol, it better be the right move because there will be no flexibility to tweak the roster afterwards.

What do you think? Do you take the baggage to get the big?

[Rip2137]

I would trade Acie Law for Kyle Lowery right now.

And in that revamped lineup, you lose rebounding moving Horford to the bench, Cardinal is useless and there is no depth at the SF.

this team would definately be worse off, not to mention that I don't think they Hawks are winning a championship with that lineup, so I would rather use and build Horford before I sold the farm for Gasol.

[D21]

I was thinking about the same trade, but have the feeling the cost would be hard. But if we can get a shooter this summer with MLE (James Jones could opt-out ?), it could be a good trade.

But I still think that DEN was certainly asking less for Camby, giving a chance to make another trade... but sure Gasol, would be more of a long term improvement.

[Rip2137]

James Jones is a good shooter for half a season. every year. He is leading the league in 3 point shooting right now, by the end of the year he won't be near it.

Or maybe he has gotten better and gotten rid of that shooters fatigue that he keeps getting.

[evildallas]

My understanding is that Camby is off the market (if he was ever truly on the it). It's that being the only real defender on a team that is pretty weak on D that makes him so valuable to the Nuggets.

[Rip2137]

You know a trade i would seriously do? I would give them marvin williams, tyronne lue, and lo wright for mike miller, Stromile swift, and try to get kyle lowery (although i seriously doubt they would part with him).

Stromile Swift is a sometimey bum, yes, but he also challeges shots and goes after rebounds at the Center position and can finish strong around the rim. that would allow Horford to move over to the 4 position, Smith would be out of position at the 3, but they should just stress to him not to change his offensive game that he has had of late and just back down SF(I believe he can guard them), you have the PG rotation of the future with lowery and law (lowery is ready to produce now defensively and somewhat offensively, and is probably one of the better lob passers in the game....that would help here).

Mike miller is a guy that can start but is also used to being a good...no, damn good producer off the bench. he would provide shooting and his midrange shot is just as good as marvins when wide open. he is also a underrated slasher.

Why would Memphis do this deal? Well, Marvin Williams is going to be a better player than miller, this gives you one heck of a athletic team that would still fit in with their new uptempo offense, you would get a vet point that can spread the court in lue, get rid of Swifts contract, and get cap space witht he expiring deals.

i didn't take the time to see if that works in the trade machine, but if it does, that would be a good trade for both teams.

[Rip2137]

Okay, ran a trade in the checker.

Memphis gets:

Tyronne lue: Expiring deal, a vet for the team.

Zaza pachulia: He isn't happy here, and probably won't be seeing much time anyway

Marvin Williams: probably will be VERY good, but trading him will make team better

Salim Stoudimire : Gives memphis another shooter, which they like in their offense, and its not like he will EVER get PT here.


Atlanta gets:

Stromile Swift: Yeah, I know...but his contract is expiring so he would play hard, he can block shots and rebound at times and is a strong athletic finisher at the rim and can really get out and run.

Mike Miller : Shooter that can produce off the bench or as a starter and can backup two positions, can allow Chills to play SF instead of 2 off the bench.

Kyle Lowery: If i am no confused, he is an expiring deal. if not, you still get a very solid point guard for now and for the future.

[lunarblues]

mike miller is an older version of marvin and stromile is a worse verison of josh. we get lowry but it isn't enough in that kind of deal. i would be for giving up our expirings, childress, and zaza for pau.

[Rip2137]

mike miller is a better version of marvin right now with more range something the team needs and can play off the bench(something the team needs if they are going to move horford to the 4). We have exprings in Lue and Lo. I would much rather have a expring in Stromile. At least he can do SOMETHING to help the team. He is a legit 7 footer that can do more than our bigs do now. In case of foul trouble you can still play solo or sheldon or Lo would still be there for the bigger centers.

Plus, realistically, why would the grizz take that deal for Pau?

It would probably take Marvin and another starter for him.

[killbuckner]

Stromile Swift has a player option for next season for 6.2 million dollars. No idea if he will take it or not. I would guess me might opt out to try and get more guaranteed years but he might want to wait until more teams have FA dollars.

Lowry is in the 2nd year of his rookie scale contract. He isn't expiring but he is worth more because he is locked in cheap.

[killbuckner]

To get Gasol it would take Horford or Smith.

[Rip2137]

Yeah, but i don't think they would straight up do it for one of them. It would take two starters. And that is too much.

[HoopsGuru25]

Miller is good and would help us more than Marvin right now but that trade would be pretty dumb. I don't see the point of trading Marvin unless it's for a good point guard,good center,or in a package for a star player. We need shooting but we can address that through free agency or other minor trades. I would just keep Marvin and sign James Jones,Barnes,or Pietrus in the off-season.

[Rip2137]

A: you get to move Horford to the 4 which so many want to do, and you have more cap space for the future to go after said 5 man or a better point.

B: there aren't any solid bigs or point guards anyone is going to be ready to give up for marvin. There just isn't.

C: Miller helps the team to get into the playoffs and makes it a much more desirable destination than a talented team that just missed the playoffs and don't have a first round pick.

D: I say that lowery is a solid point. Maybe I see more in him than others though.

I mean, if anyone can think of a solid big or point you could realitically get for Marvin, the by all means, mention him. i just don't think there is one out there.

[HoopsGuru25]

A: you get to move Horford to the 4 which so many want to do, and you have more cap space for the future to go after said 5 man or a better point.

1. Why would you trade a 21 year SF who starts for a 27 year old SF to come off the bench? That doesn't make sense. If that was the case then Marvin would be coming off the bench right now. Trading for Miller wouldn't impact Horford at all.

2.Horford starting at the 4 on this team doesn't make sense until he becomes better than Smith or we get a better center than Horford. I'm not going to trade Marvin and then start Lo,Zaza,or Swift(not in the rotation of a last place team)as my starting center. That makes no sense. The only three players I'd trade Marvin for on Memphis are Conley(fills a need),Gasol(star),or Gay(same age and an upgrade).

B: there aren't any solid bigs or point guards anyone is going to be ready to give up for marvin. There just isn't.

That's the point. We don't have to trade Marvin just for the hell of trading him. Unless we get a massive upgrade(which Miller is not)or a position of need(pg or center)then it doesn't make sense to trade him. I also think Marvin's value is alot lower around the league than it should be and that Horford's value is alot higher than it should be. I'd be more tempted to trade Al because I think we could get more in return. I'd perfer to keep both until the right deal comes along though.

C: Miller helps the team to get into the playoffs and makes it a much more desirable destination than a talented team that just missed the playoffs and don't have a first round pick.

We are probably going to squeak into the playoffs(and get pounded by Boston) regardless of a trade. The only teams that are playing decent basketball that are behind us are the Bobcats and Knicks. Mike Miller is a crap defender and not that much better than Marvin right now(and he's 6 years older). Do you honestly see Miller being a better player than Marvin in 3 years? I do think he fills a bigger need on the Hawks(3 point shooting)but that can be addressed with the MLE. We could use the MLE on a shooter AND keep Marvin.

D: I say that lowery is a solid point. Maybe I see more in him than others though.

Lowry may be good. He plays as hard as any one in the NBA and he's still really young(I think he's supposed to be a senior). He is not what the Hawks need though.

I mean, if anyone can think of a solid big or point you could realitically get for Marvin, the by all means, mention him. i just don't think there is one out there.

Well considering there is no reason to trade Marvin...I'm not sure why this matters. I wanted to trade Marvin for Ford or possibly the Milwaukee pick(6) and take Conley(he didn't last that long though). Other teams fans saw Marvin as a bust though and would rather draft a SF(even though he's the same age as Green and Brewer).

[omeloon]

You guys would not be gutting your depth if you were lucky enough to have Gasol, Horford, Josh Smith, Marvin, Johnson, Law, and Lowry on the same roster. That's a pretty damn solid 7 man rotation w/ lots of flexibility. If you could get those 7 players together, you should definitely be bugging Memphis on the phone.