Is it Time

[JoshB914]

Like I said, one, two or even three impressive games is not going to change my mind. Based on JJ's body of work over his three seasons here (not just one game), I don't think he is that type of player.

[tontoz]

Like I said, one, two or even three impressive games is not going to change my mind. Based on JJ's body of work over his three seasons here (not just one game), I don't think he is that type of player.

yeah his 25 ppg last year (most in the second halves of games) shooting 47% was pretty weak.

Dropping 20 in the first half against the division leader ws pretty weak too. I wish he would try to be a leader and score 30 in the first half instead.

[conleyorbust]

He's picked it up lately, his shooting percentage is up to 42% on the season but he's definitely had a bad year. I've given him the benefit of the doubt about injury/exhaustion stuff but I haven't been impressed with his body language. He's definitely not on the TMac, Wade (healthy), Kobe, Lebron level of swing men who can single-handedly carry a team. On the other hand, he only makes $12m a year right now so we aren't talking about an Allan Houston type of thing where he is completely crippling the franchise. I think he can be the top scorer on a great team but the team has to be built right and have solid players at every position and some depth.

The state of the team right now isn't Joe's fault. We have no depth and poor coaching... if Joe had played all season like he is playing now, we would be a couple games better but the rest of the flaws in the team would still exist.

As far as being a "leader", Joe doesn't always seem like a competitive guy but from what I've heard he's a super-hard worker. If we were a winning team people would talk about him being the silent - lead by example type. That being said, we need someone to lead on the court and Joe, being the most talented vet, should be that guy.

[smabie]

I just noticed this comment. It is way off.
First of all Rodman never took as many jumpers as Smith

Maybe it just seemed like it.

I went to just about every Spurs home game during the Rodman years, and watched most of the rest on TV; he's one of my fave players all time. Don't know what percentage of shots he took that were jumpers, but he had the same habit of Smith, of taking jumpers for no good reason other than he thought he could take it. At one point, (IIRC, it was with Larry Brown as coach), they started running the offense with Rodman as Point Forward an increased number of times during the half-court sets; this got Rodman into the habit of passing the ball more, instead of receiving & shooting.

and Sheed shoots them far better than Smith.
Wallace's EFG on jumpers is 46%
http://www.82games.com/0708/07DET15A.HTM
Smith's is 32%.
http://www.82games.com/0708/07ATL11A.HTM

I went over Josh Smith's numbers, and there's no mathematical way for them to add up, statistically. Since they only give 2-digit percentages (ie, 49%) instead of 3-digit percentages (31.9%, for example), there's a range of numbers possible for each group. I've played with all the numbers, but there's no way to make the percentages match up for his actual shooting of 397/890. Closest I've come is 407/890, which is 10 off.

That's just one set of numbers, admittedly, and I may have missed something. But anyplace that's going to throw up numbers as if they are facts, and then not have the numbers add up correctly, I'm wary of, since if the numbers lie then someone else is lying.

[killbuckner]

smable- you know that EFG% doesn't count 3 point shots the same as 2 point shots right? And I don't believe that site updates player stats after every game. They are usually several days behind.

[Rip2137]

The team is 13-4 when JJ scores over 25 points or more this season(aka, his average last season). It isn't hard to say that if he had played close to his last season form this team would have ALOT more victories. Yes, this team has its flaws, and the coach is HORRIBLE. But that has been the case since JJ has been here. He has also been double teamed since he has been here.

Its JJ that has decided this year that passing out the double quickly isn't a good thing and trying to dribble away from it and keep dribbling and just shutting down the entire offense is a good thing. It is him that has obviously taken games off defensively. It is him that you can literally see sulking on the court from game to game. It was him that after a 7-1 preseason decided to take a shot at his team and saying he wasn't gotten any help, then proceeded to be the only guy that regressed this year.

I don't care if anyone else doesn't want to say it, I will. I don't care if he had a good week. I am happy he did and all, but that is mostly because they have been taking the ball out of his hands and letting him be the spot up shooter that he is instead of the guy that dribbles 20 seconds off the shot clock and puts up a dumb fade away. And if you are watching the second half of games lately, you see that they are going back to that "offense" and that is why he is having some tough second halfs.

It is amazing to me that the same people that are calling others on the team crap because they have gone through short stretches where they are struggling are willing to give JJ a clean slate after 4 months of consistantly sucking. A good game out of him was the abnormality for a good while there. Marvin had a tough Feb and all of a sudden he is trash. Joe had a bad November, December, January, and February.

You all can give him a pass all you want now and try to point at others on this team, but maybe they are a little tired from having to carry the team while their "leader" sulked around for the past 4 months. Maybe guys like Smith are tired of people talking about his turnovers when Joe is turning it over at the same rate. Maybe guys like Marvin are tired of hearing people say he should step it up and he is sucking now, when he had a tough february and is just getting fewer shots and touches and minutes in March to understand why his numbers are dropping. Maybe guys on the bench are tired of coming out, playing their butts off, only to get DNPs so that Joe can play 48 uninspired minutes then hear the coach saying how they had to keep him in because there was noone to back him up.

I am still on the screw Joe Johnson bandwagon and its going to take more than a few good games to get me off of it. He is going to have to step it the hell up next season, because another year of this whiney crap won't cut it.

[tontoz]

Its JJ that has decided this year that passing out the double quickly isn't a good thing

Who has he had to pass to?

I agree that in theory he should pass more quickly but given how rarely his teamates can make open shots i can see why he would force the issue.

It is funny that on the one hand people want him to score 25 ppg or more but at the same time pass more instead of forcing up shots against double teams.

Can you say contradiction?

It is no coincidence that JJ is shooting better since Bibby got here. Bibby is actually a threat to score. Who else do we have who has been able to consistently make teams pay for doubling JJ.

It is amazing to me that the same people that are calling others on the team crap because they have gone through short stretches where they are struggling are willing to give JJ a clean slate after 4 months of consistantly sucking.

The difference is that JJ is a proven scorer. his career average is 37.5% from 3 and he is currently shooting 37.1% from 3.

Smith is a horrible jump shooter and always has been. That doesn't stop him from taking jumpers though. Marvin has been very up and down with his shot since he got here.

[Rip2137]

What you are basically saying is that Joe taking and missing a contested fadeaway or FINALLY passing the ball with 2 seconds left on the shotclock is better than giving the ball to an open teammate?

That is ridiculous. that is not basketball, and that is why the offense has been so stagnant in the second half and late portions of the game when it slows down. Don't try to justify mind numbingly bad basketball. I blame Woody for running the play over and over and over and over, but I blame Joe for it never working because he is playing selfish, bad basketball.

And its not a contradiction. Its basketball, You move the ball around, you will get better shots. get better shots will slow the team down from doubling. Those shots might come after a full around the court swing and drive. It doesn't have to be pass and shot. If they are doubling on the right side of the court, proper spacing gives you options on the left side if you pass teh ball quickly. Joe allows for everyone on the court to make their rotations thus making the double teams effective.

he didn't do this last year. That is why their was a increase in his offensive play. You can't say that because Bibby is here he has someone to pass it to, and thats why it is working, because it worked in stretches last year and there was no bibby here. There was only AJ and Lue. and it still worked.

Contrary to belief, Josh Smith is a pretty good catch and shoot jumpshooter. He is not a good pull up jump shooter or a shooter on the move. If you watch the Hawks enough you can almost always call out when his shot is going to drop and when its not.

Childress is also a VERY good wide open jumpshooter. You know how a guy gets wide open? When another player is double teamed on the other side of the court.

Marvin Williams was showing a consistant Jumper befoer the injury. VERY consistant if you look at his shooting percentage which before February was much better than Joes (thus negating the whole "Joe forcing it is a better option thing).

And yeah, Joe is a proven scorer, but you know what? Both Marvin and Josh have been more consistant than Joe this year. They both have shot the ball better outside of a tough first month for Josh and a tough February for Marvin.

Josh Childress is shooting 60 percent from the field. EVERYONE is shooting the ball better than Joe, so why is it a better option for Joe to shoot a fade away while covered over those guys taking uncontested shots. There is no defending him here. He has played like crap and insulted his team and front office in the media and sulked on the court this year. If his name was Ron Artest people would be calling for his head. But since its "Nice guy Joe" we are supposed to give him a pass.

The guy that has talked the most in the media has given the least on the court. and once again, its going to take more than a few good games in a row for me to forget that.

[smabie]

smable- you know that EFG% doesn't count 3 point shots the same as 2 point shots right? And I don't believe that site updates player stats after every game. They are usually several days behind.

Actually, I didn't know that about eFG%. Though having found the definition of eFG% (on a completely different website, not the one quoted), I think it's rather inaccurate assessment of one's shooting accuracy. Scoring value, yes; shooting accuracy, no.

Especially when one is attempting to argue that a guy never hits jump shots.

Take two guys. One hits nothing but 2-pt FGs, and never hits a 3. The other hits nothing but 3-pt FGs, and never hits a 2.

Guy #1 hits 55% of his overall shots. Guy #2 hits 40% of his overall shots, which are half as many as the first guy. So Guy #1 has a higher FG.

But since the 2nd guy is hitting nothing but 3s, they count as +.5 per, so that would be an eFG% of 60%, compared to the 55%. And so then someone argues that the 2nd guy shoots jumpers significantly better than the 1st, because his eFG% is higher. Even though the 1st guy is scoring nearly twice as many points. (55 * 2 = 110 pts for 100 shots; 40 * 3 / 2 = 60pts for 50 shots, since he's taking half as many shots.)

Back to the math I was doing before (which, knowing how eFG% is calculated now, shows the math to match up; again, need to include definitions or references, when using odd stats...)...

More relevantly, Sheed is hitting 38.9% of his outside jumpers, not 46.2%.
Or 223 of 573 (+/- a couple). Out of 683 total shots he's taken this season. That's 84% of his total shots, he's shooting under 40% on. And 350 misses from outside.

Smith's hit 128 of 432 (or 433), which is 29.6% or so. Out of 890 total taken. Less than 50% of his total shots. And 304 misses from outside.

So yes, Smith's shooting 30% from outside. But he's taking less than half his shots from outside. He's taken 30% more shots overall than Sheed, and missed 13% fewer total outside jump shots.

So my point stands. Rasheed shoots more and misses more jumpers than Josh Smith.

[tontoz]

So my point stands. Rasheed shoots more and misses more jumpers than Josh Smith.

I hope this was just a joke but if it wasn't....

That is just swell but that wasn't the question i was asking.

The question was who shoots as many jumpers as Smith and shoots them worse. So far nobody has found an answer. Sheed shoots by far a better percentage than Smith.

And since 3 pointers count for 50% more points than 2 pointers they should be included when determining someones outside shooting proficiency.

[tontoz]

And its not a contradiction. Its basketball, You move the ball around, you will get better shots.

That is only in theory, assuming everyone can make open shots. That assumption doesnt work for us. In practice with this team it usually means a Josh Smith brick or a turnover.

You can't say that because Bibby is here he has someone to pass it to, and thats why it is working, because it worked in stretches last year and there was no bibby here.

But there was Lue and he was shooting lights out in stretches last season, especially in November when JJ had his best month. If i remember right Lue averaged 15 ppg early last season.

Contrary to belief, Josh Smith is a pretty good catch and shoot jumpshooter.

No he isn't. He is one of the worst in the league if not the worst.

In fact he is actually better shooting on the move because he does a better job getting his legs into the shot and he is generally closer to the rim.

Childress is also a VERY good wide open jumpshooter.

No he isn't. His EFG on jumpers is only 35% and he needs a Walmarts worth of room to get his shot off.

Josh Childress is shooting 60 percent from the field. EVERYONE is shooting the ball better than Joe

That is because almost all of his points are on runouts on the break or follow ups near the rim. in the half court set he sucks.

[Rip2137]

While I am sure you all love that EFG bullcrap, the fact is when childress takes shots, he makes them.

If you watch them play, you know that that ugly thing he shoots is good when he is open. Not so much when he does that weird step back thing or off the move, hop step jumper. As a shooter with set feet Josh Childress is a very good shooter.

And Josh Smith is also a good catch adn shoot shooter when he has time. Getting the ball with 2 seconds on the shot clock is not a good shot for anyone. With his feet set, he is a good shooter. He takes a dribble or a step in, its going to be long, if he catchs, faces up and then goes up, he is going to be short. Just simple watching him shoot will tell you that. Catch, shoot in rhythm and more times than not he is going to hit it. Once again doesn't take much more than watching the game to see that.


And its funny that you mention that Josh smith would brick it or turnover, when in fact Joe was shooting worse than smith and turning it over at the same rate.

So once again, what about Joe shooting the worse percentage on the court and turning it over at the highest or second highest rate on the court suggest that the best offense stragedy is for him to over dribble and force shots over two defenders or over dribble and give the ball up too late for it to make rotations.

it has nothing to do with theory. When the hawks are playing well, watch the ball. When they start losing, watch the ball. When the ball stays in one place for a long time, it isn't going to end well. If it keeps moving, it will end up going well. Joe is the number one guy on the team killing the flow of the offense.

And having a 39 point game doesn't change that. If he gets his crap together we are easily in the playoffs. If we had a coach that wasn't a moron, he would run plays that would require Joe to get his crap together and we would easily be in the playoffs.

Oh, and in half court sets, no one on the team moves better without the ball than Josh Childress. But of course getting him a easy layup when he cuts to the rim after Joe is doubled isn't nearly as good a play as Joe keeping the ball another 10 seconds and taking a jumper.

I don't even care if Joe makes the jumper, its still a crappy play.

[HoopsGuru25]

Contrary to belief, Josh Smith is a pretty good catch and shoot jumpshooter. He is not a good pull up jump shooter or a shooter on the move. If you watch the Hawks enough you can almost always call out when his shot is going to drop and when its not.

I'm not really involved in this debate but this is WAY off.

[tontoz]

While I am sure you all love that EFG bullcrap, the fact is when childress takes shots, he makes them.

If you watch them play, you know that that ugly thing he shoots is good when he is open. Not so much when he does that weird step back thing or off the move, hop step jumper. As a shooter with set feet Josh Childress is a very good shooter.

No he isn't. He is only shooting 29% from 3. Just look at his hotzones.

http://www.nba.com/hotspots/

he can only get a long range jumper off when he is wide open. he never shoots on the move from deep.

And its funny that you mention that Josh smith would brick it or turnover, when in fact Joe was shooting worse than smith and turning it over at the same rate.

Not even close. JJ handles the ball way more than Smith and still has fewer turnovers. Smiths turnover ratio of 13.8 is far higher than JJ's 9.9.

JJ's assist to turnover ratio is nearly 2 to 1. It would be over 2 to 1 if Smith could make a jumper.

So once again, what about Joe shooting the worse percentage on the court and turning it over at the highest or second highest rate on the court suggest that the best offense stragedy is for him to over dribble and force shots over two defenders or over dribble and give the ball up too late for it to make rotations.

You are forgetting that JJ makes a lot of 3s shoots them at 37% so his actual shooting percentage isn't indicative of his shooting proficiency.

If JJ didn't try to score against double teams he would probably only score 12 ppg.

Ideally i would like to see JJ give the ball up sooner on double teams but given the lack of production by his teamates i can see his reasoning.

If it keeps moving, it will end up going well.

That isn't entirely true. We have a lot of turnover prone players. Smith in particular goes for the spectacular pass which looks great when it works but most of the time it winds up in a turnover.

And more ball movement usually means an open jumper for Smith because he is the one the opponent wants to shoot.

Oh, and in half court sets, no one on the team moves better without the ball than Josh Childress.

That is because he can't do anything with the ball.

But of course getting him a easy layup when he cuts to the rim after Joe is doubled

Just because Childress cuts to the rim doesn't mean he will be open. The opponents know the Hawks lack shooters and like to score inside. Therefore they crowd the middle and force other guys to make perimeter shots.

You quoted the Hawks winning percentage when JJ scores 25 ppg. Do you think the other teams don't know that? And how is he going to score over 25 ppg if he passes quickly when he gets doubled?

[conleyorbust]

the point tontoz is trying to make with his rant makes me wonder why we have Smith on the perimeter in all of our half court sets. Why doesn't Woody tell him to plant himself inside or along the baseline. I'm sure he could be just as effective as Chil on the o-brds if he were constantly planted inside like that.

[tontoz]

the point tontoz is trying to make with his rant makes me wonder why we have Smith on the perimeter in all of our half court sets. Why doesn't Woody tell him to plant himself inside or along the baseline. I'm sure he could be just as effective as Chil on the o-brds if he were constantly planted inside like that.

True i have no idea why Smith is roaming the perimeter.

However if Childress, Horford and Smith are all crowding the middle that makes it pretty easy for the defense to cut off the passing lanes.

hence the need for shooters and the need for Childress to hit the road.

[conleyorbust]

-= original quote snipped =-



True i have no idea why Smith is roaming the perimeter.

However if Childress, Horford and Smith are all crowding the middle that makes it pretty easy for the defense to cut off the passing lanes.

hence the need for shooters and the need for Childress to hit the road.

Right, the more I think about it the better I feel about trading Chil and Marv this summer. I don't see Marv fitting in to the role we need him at and I don't see him becoming good enough to warrant other moves and I I think Chil would be more valuable on other teams. He'd be absolutely awsome in a system like Toronto where the bigs can hit jumpers.