Smith and Childress

[Harry10]

let face it...... Josh Smith is officially the hottest free agent this summer, and every sports writer in a city that has an NBA team is going to write something about Smoove. this isn't really journalism, it is just tabloid writing.

Hawks fans and Smith have nothing to worry about..... really, Childress is the only one that needs to worry, because Smith might take some of his money, or not resigned at all.

all Hawks fans would love to have both Smith and Chil, but lets face it, if you had to choose between 5M for Chil and no Smith, or 15M for Smith and no Chil, what would you choose?

[HoopsGuru25]

Do you honestly believe someone is going to pick Chil over Smith?

I also see no reason that both couldn't be re-signed. People are already panicking before the draft. The most likely scenario is STILL that they are going to match w/e Josh Smith gets and that Chill is likely going to get the MLE(unless someone offers him more than that).

[Harry10]

exactly.... all these articles about Smoove are ridiculous. the GM is going to match any max offer and if that means the owners will have to cut corners in other areas, then i'm okay with that.

[killbuckner]

If Smith is going to be maxed out I sure as hell would want the GM to explore what they can get for him in a S&T.

[ATLfan]

We have to make sure Smoove is signed before we worry about Childress.

[evildallas]

If Smith is going to be maxed out I sure as hell would want the GM to explore what they can get for him in a S&T.

You listen to offers, but if you have a lot of offers for him at the max that should tell you that you've got a heck of a player and maybe you should keep him.

Childress is another story in my eyes. He puts up good numbers as a 6th man playing starter minutes and he has a good PER, but rebuilding teams are often tripped up by overcompensating nice role players before they have a solid star core locked up. These teams are often seen peddling the player for pennies on the dollar a year or two later (I'm thinking of Nocioni in Chicago as a good example). Short-term I see Childress as vital, but I'm not sure he really helps the team become elite. He's a bit too slow to guard SG and isn't what I would call a lock down defender. On offense he made a living hanging out underneath and putting back garbage baskets. That's was great, but it often meant lineup inversion with Josh Smith hanging on the outside and often throwing up the garbage. Ideally, Smith would be on the block and we'd have a better outside shooter in the lineup than Childress. Childress isn't a very good outside shooter, he's just crafty enough not to shoot many from out there. I don't want to lose Childress for nothing, but I don't want to tie too much salary up in him either. If Marvin has a breakout year we might lament how much Childress is paid when his minutes get trimmed to a normal backup level. I really wonder what his S&T value is. Does any team see him as a solution at starting SF? It would hurt short-term, but it might be best in the big picture.

[Hawks]

I like Chill and hope he remains. Let be honest here Chill can be replace. Smoove is the player that will be hard to replace. Smoove is the biggest enigma in basketball today.

[conleyorbust]

If Smith is going to be maxed out I sure as hell would want the GM to explore what they can get for him in a S&T.

You listen to offers, but if you have a lot of offers for him at the max that should tell you that you've got a heck of a player and maybe you should keep him.

Childress is another story in my eyes. He puts up good numbers as a 6th man playing starter minutes and he has a good PER, but rebuilding teams are often tripped up by overcompensating nice role players before they have a solid star core locked up. These teams are often seen peddling the player for pennies on the dollar a year or two later (I'm thinking of Nocioni in Chicago as a good example). Short-term I see Childress as vital, but I'm not sure he really helps the team become elite. He's a bit too slow to guard SG and isn't what I would call a lock down defender. On offense he made a living hanging out underneath and putting back garbage baskets. That's was great, but it often meant lineup inversion with Josh Smith hanging on the outside and often throwing up the garbage. Ideally, Smith would be on the block and we'd have a better outside shooter in the lineup than Childress. Childress isn't a very good outside shooter, he's just crafty enough not to shoot many from out there. I don't want to lose Childress for nothing, but I don't want to tie too much salary up in him either. If Marvin has a breakout year we might lament how much Childress is paid when his minutes get trimmed to a normal backup level. I really wonder what his S&T value is. Does any team see him as a solution at starting SF? It would hurt short-term, but it might be best in the big picture.

This is EXACTLY how I feel. Except, I'm not as concerned about Marv breaking out.

Childress isn't a starter on most teams because he can't shoot well enough and it leads to the inversion you talked about (by the way, great word for it... I've been describing that phenomenon with a paragraph and you summed it up in a word) regardless of who you play at the power positions. While he is better than Marv right now, he isn't as versatile - his impact is diminished as teams slow down because he warps the offense and gets taken advantage of on D. There is no future for Chil beyond what he is now. We need to be able to fill the the roles around Smith/Joe/Al (hopefully) and we won't be able to do that if we are paying guys $7m a year to play 25 minutes a night.

[JoshB914]

+1. I'm not worried about Smoove, we better be prepared to match whatever it takes. As for Chill, I would love to keep him, but we could plug a few holes by dealing him. And I don't think he is worth giving up too much $$$ for.

The interesting thing about Chill is that even though it's pretty clear that he's going to be nothing more than a role player. But because he is still young and has those hops, it wouldn't surprise me if there were a few teams out there that think they can turn him into more. If that is the case, we need to be actively pursuing a trade with those teams, as they may be willing to give up far more than Chill is worth in a deal.

[tontoz]

Obviously resigning Smith should be the top priority this offseason. I can't see myself following the team if they let him walk for nothing.

Childress can hit the road. The Hawks need shooting and size. He brings neither. If he wasn't already on the team he would be the last guy we would be looking at as a free agent.

[evildallas]

Childress can hit the road. The Hawks need shooting and size. He brings neither. If he wasn't already on the team he would be the last guy we would be looking at as a free agent.

That's a good way of looking at it. Remove his incumbent status and look at all free agents who could come in and play the 2/3 as a backup and I would say that someone like Kelenna Azubuike would be a better signing. Cheaper and more fleet footed on D with shooting range. He wouldn't be the only one like that. If we look at sign and trade options for him, maybe we can yield a big or a veteran perimeter defender. Childress might have better stats than who we might acquire, but the fit could be better with the replacements.

[lunarblues]

i say we need to bring both in as well as looking at two more vet free agents. nobody said we have to stop signing people if we resign both of the joshes. we still have holes at the backup 2 and 5 (i think of zaza as more of a power forward). that's having a true 10 man team. we lose childress and now we have holes at three positions. this isn't the time to be subtracting peices. keep the core chemistry growing and add in some new peices. that's how we advance in the NBA.

[conleyorbust]

i say we need to bring both in as well as looking at two more vet free agents. nobody said we have to stop signing people if we resign both of the joshes. we still have holes at the backup 2 and 5 (i think of zaza as more of a power forward). that's having a true 10 man team. we lose childress and now we have holes at three positions. this isn't the time to be subtracting peices. keep the core chemistry growing and add in some new peices. that's how we advance in the NBA.

Here's the thing. Good teams stay good by committing to a core and then building with peices that enhance those guys' strengths. Childress was invaluable to us this year but not because he is a stud player, just because our bench was absolute garbage.

Overpaying stars (JJ, JS, possible AH in a few) is something that all teams have to do. Overpaying role players whose contributions can more easily be replaced is what keeps teams from perfecting their roster or changing on the fly.

[Harry10]

i say we need to bring both in as well as looking at two more vet free agents. nobody said we have to stop signing people if we resign both of the joshes. we still have holes at the backup 2 and 5 (i think of zaza as more of a power forward). that's having a true 10 man team. we lose childress and now we have holes at three positions. this isn't the time to be subtracting peices. keep the core chemistry growing and add in some new peices. that's how we advance in the NBA.

well this has to do with priority than what we wouldl like to happen.

[raleigh]

If Smith is going to be maxed out I sure as hell would want the GM to explore what they can get for him in a S&T.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[lunarblues]

i say we need to bring both in as well as looking at two more vet free agents. nobody said we have to stop signing people if we resign both of the joshes. we still have holes at the backup 2 and 5 (i think of zaza as more of a power forward). that's having a true 10 man team. we lose childress and now we have holes at three positions. this isn't the time to be subtracting peices. keep the core chemistry growing and add in some new peices. that's how we advance in the NBA.

Here's the thing. Good teams stay good by committing to a core and then building with peices that enhance those guys' strengths. Childress was invaluable to us this year but not because he is a stud player, just because our bench was absolute garbage.

Overpaying stars (JJ, JS, possible AH in a few) is something that all teams have to do. Overpaying role players whose contributions can more easily be replaced is what keeps teams from perfecting their roster or changing on the fly.

that's the point, you aren't going to get a much better sixth man than childress, he get's you 14+ pts most nights without having one play called for him and was downright a godsend with some of the offensive and defensive rebounds he picked up in the closing minutes last year. you aren't guranteed to get that by going cheap on the bench. also we have to stop acting like we are a year away from making the championship, this team is still building and childess's best days are way ahead of him. it would be foolish to let him go. keep the core together. and build around all 7 of them. (joe, joshes, marvin, horfod, law and for right now bibby.)

[HoopsGuru25]

Childress is not necessarily a good fit but he is good value for the MLE. The fact is that Chil is probably better than about 80% of the players who sign for the MLE. We could trade him down the road(even if it's just for an expiring) if he isn't in our long term plans. The Hawks are not in a position to just let Chill walk for nothing(if it's only a MLE deal). We have no one else on the bench currently who can replace his 30 minutes and we don't know what we are going to do with Marvin in the next 12 months.

[conleyorbust]

Childress is not necessarily a good fit but he is good value for the MLE. The fact is that Chil is probably better than about 80% of the players who sign for the MLE. We could trade him down the road(even if it's just for an expiring) if he isn't in our long term plans. The Hawks are not in a position to just let Chill walk for nothing(if it's only a MLE deal). We have no one else on the bench currently who can replace his 30 minutes and we don't know what we are going to do with Marvin in the next 12 months.

Obviously I'm not advocating that we let him walk. I do think, however, that there are players who fit better on our team as the first wing off the bench even if they are less productive in an absolute sense. I also don't think that he needs to be paid any more than the MLE as he isn't a cornerstone player.

We should explore SnT options and be willing to "do the Spurs thing" and let him go if the price gets too high. I'm not sure how attractive of a trading peice he would be for 4 more years at $7m apeice. I just don't want to the team to mistake him being an integral part of the team last season with him necessarilly being an integral part of the team in the future.

[tontoz]

that's the point, you aren't going to get a much better sixth man than childress, he get's you 14+ pts most nights without having one play called for him

First of all he doesn't score over 14 most nights.

Secondly what plays could you run for him given that his skills are so limited?

[evildallas]

I have a couple of other possibilities for Josh Childress. Most talk has been behind a standard 5 year extension, but given the nature of which clubs have cap room he might only receive MLE type offers. That means the possibility (albeit a long shot) of having to match a 3 or 4 yr deal instead of a 5 yr. The slightly shorter deal might be helpful in long term plans given when Al Horford will be eligible for an extension.

The other possibility is the free agent market proves weak for Mr. Childress and he can't get the offer he wants as a RFA. He could conceivably sign the one-year qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent next year. He's qualifying offer is 4.84M and he'll be 26 next summer. This would most likely mean losing him at the end of the year and handcuff the Hawks with respect to trading him (I believe it gives him some form of refusal right).

This scenario doesn't look good for the ASG's plans, but although risky, could actually turn out okay for the Hawks. In theory, 2009 would arrive with Joe, Josh Smith, Al Horford, and Acie Law under contract at 34M in cap value (if Smith gets the max). We potentially would have some low level contracts or maybe a MLE-level contract if we are active in free agency (believe it when I see it). Mike Bibby, Josh Childress, and Zaza Pachulia would be unrestricted and Marvin Williams would be a restricted free agent. Speedy may be retired by then or could be 5.2M against the cap. If Speedy is off the cap we are merely rights renouncing away from having a sizeable chunk to spend in free agency. Even if have a max cap hold on Marvin Williams and a mid-round 1st cap hold we would have 10M in space approximately. If Marvin has a great year or just continues to improve we can match any offer. If not, we have the opportunity to add that other cornerstone piece in free agency (we'd have little to offer in trade).

Here's the list of expiring contracts for this year and that doesn't include ETOs.
http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=791951

Admittedly it would be a drastic shift in direction, but the flexibility to add one big piece that might make for an exciting run at title contention.

Just trying to look on the bright side of the different possiblities.