Radical move (picks) vs. Stay the course

evildallas · Post #1 » by **evildallas** » Wed May 18, 2011 2:20 pm

Stay the course would keep the existing squad together and hope that Jeff Teague's development as a PG pushes the team further. It's always an option if you believe. In the first of my offseason trade scenarios, I put forth a draft pick trade option. Trying to change the roster by selling high on a strong playoff performance to a GM that might be running out of time, Kahn in Minnesota. This assumes Minnesota bringing over Ricky Rubio (who would be throwing alley oops to Josh) and that the GM doesn't have time to wait for the 2nd pick to develop to keep his job. For us the 2nd pick would have to reap a starter immediately, but with the rest of the lineup in place wouldn't have the pressure to be the savior. The 20th pick would yield a rotation player that might ultimately develop into a starter.

Josh Smith
to Minnesota
for
2nd pick
20th pick
Martell Webster
Anthony Tolliver

Webster and Tolliver are essentially contract fill to make the trade work within the cap. The key are the picks and there are two ways I see to possibly go:
Fix the lineup:
Enes Kanter C at #2
Kenneth Faried F or Marshon Brooks G at #20

Reach for a star:
Derrick Williams F at #2
Lucas Noriega C (raw intl development C) or Jordan Williams F/C (Perkins-type) at #20

In scenario #1 we go for a solid low post scorer to play C. The 20th pick could be used in a number of ways depending on whose available to either get a rebounding machine for the bench, a SG to replace Jamal Crawford, or maybe a SF to likely replace Marvin Williams. Chris Singleton if available is a thought as a defensive stopper at the 3.

In scenario #2 we go for the SF that can really shoot and has a lot of confidence (unlike our Williams). He's got flaws in his game but if saw Arizona beat Duke in the tournament you have an idea of what he's capable of. At #20, the likely thing to do is reach on someone to play C either now or the future. Noriega is a thin long 7 footer from Brazil who might take a few years to matter. Jordan Williams isn't quite as tall as you'd like but he has the bulk to allow Al to move to PF.

The real downside of the picks is that it might make us too young to succeed even though we would have veterans at 2 starting spots. The upside is the deal makes us a deeper squad and should fill in roster holes.

Personally I don't know what's the best route. I do know this is a weak draft, but if it wasn't we couldn't ask this much for Josh in trade. I didn't use Al in the deal because the trade because I don't feel he fits with the rest of the Minnesota lineup. Webster and Tolliver while are contract fillers also provide long range shooting for the bench so they aren't exactly dead weight.

killbuckner · Post #2 » by **killbuckner** » Wed May 18, 2011 2:38 pm

I'd like to see the team blow it up, but I don't see the point of blowing it up unless the team could move Joe Johnson. Rebuilding doesn't make any sense when the team has to work around that contract.

Geaux_Hawks · Post #3 » by **Geaux_Hawks** » Wed May 18, 2011 2:47 pm

Pointless for Minn to do..They have Beasley and love..

evildallas · Post #4 » by **evildallas** » Wed May 18, 2011 4:05 pm

killbuckner wrote:I'd like to see the team blow it up, but I don't see the point of blowing it up unless the team could move Joe Johnson. Rebuilding doesn't make any sense when the team has to work around that contract.

My trade Joe Johnson option is scheduled for another day.

parson · Post #5 » by **parson** » Wed May 18, 2011 5:00 pm

I see why MIN does this, Smith is much better than Beasley.

Why do we do this? We'd have to scout Kanter like crazy and be SURE he is a real NBA Center. I'm not sure he is. 2nd, there's a little concern over his knees.

One immediate benefit: he and Zaza could plot together and no one would know what they were saying.

theatlfan · Post #6 » by **theatlfan** » Thu May 19, 2011 6:35 pm

I'm on the fence as to whether MIN does this. On the one hand, there's a definite upgrade for them and Smith would help their D. OTOH, trading the #2 pick in this draft for a guy who'd prolly only stay for the 2 years he's under contract before bolting doesn't seem too appeasing. They're not in WASH's situation of a couple of years ago where they thought they could go on a playoff run with the right piece - they've still got a couple of pieces to get.

As for us, I don't think we can do trade either Horford or Smoove without getting an immediate upgrade in the post. We've sold out for JJ and he isn't getting any younger. If we trade Horford or Smoove before JJ, then we've got to get a legit veteran C or we could end up in an even worse purgatory than we are in now.

Ruhiel · Post #7 » by **Ruhiel** » Thu May 19, 2011 6:49 pm

theatlfan wrote:I'm on the fence as to whether MIN does this. On the one hand, there's a definite upgrade for them and Smith would help their D. OTOH, trading the #2 pick in this draft for a guy who'd prolly only stay for the 2 years he's under contract before bolting doesn't seem too appeasing. They're not in WASH's situation of a couple of years ago where they thought they could go on a playoff run with the right piece - they've still got a couple of pieces to get.

As for us, I don't think we can do trade either Horford or Smoove without getting an immediate upgrade in the post. We've sold out for JJ and he isn't getting any younger. If we trade Horford or Smoove before JJ, then we've got to get a legit veteran C or we could end up in an even worse purgatory than we are in now.

from Milwaukee
Sanders+Bogut+Salmons +Gooden
from Atlanta
Williams+Hinrich+Horford

trade nets us 3 talented bigs for 1 PF/C and Hinrich/Williams.
then sign NBA hanger on Al Thornton.

on the fence about Collins. Damien Wilkins is good but a bit nepotistic. Powell is a 1 way player.
sign Al Thornton.

Atlanta Hawks 2012-2013 (~$69 mil)
Teague/Johnson/Smith/Sanders/Bogut
Price-Gaines/Salmons/Thornton/Gooden/Pachulia-Collins??

great size and probably the best shot blocking team in the league. Have a slew of 6'10+ rebounders.

Note: If possible *trade Pape Sy and 2nd pick for Semih Erden. 1 year under his belt.
sign a backup guard like Ronnie Price or another Sundiata Gaines.

Geaux_Hawks · Post #8 » by **Geaux_Hawks** » Fri May 20, 2011 12:38 am

As much as I want Bogut in a Hawks uni, you seem to really, really, really want him badly by posting this everywhere. Since you intend on bringing in just a BS back up PG, it only makes sense if you sub Hinrich(Who I don't see why you would trade) for Zaza. Honestly I don't see how we get Sanders, but i'm all for it if he was included.

Harry10 · Post #9 » by **Harry10** » Fri May 20, 2011 1:41 am

parson wrote:I see why MIN does this, Smith is much better than Beasley.

Why do we do this? We'd have to scout Kanter like crazy and be SURE he is a real NBA Center. I'm not sure he is. 2nd, there's a little concern over his knees.

One immediate benefit: he and Zaza could plot together and no one would know what they were saying.

Smoove might be better than Beasley, but Derrick Williams is projected to be better than Josh...... so if the Wolves wanted a combo forward that can shoot 3s, then why not just not make the trade and draft Derrick Williams?

theatlfan · Post #10 » by **theatlfan** » Fri May 20, 2011 4:00 am

Harry10 wrote:Smoove might be better than Beasley, but Derrick Williams is projected to be better than Josh...... so if the Wolves wanted a combo forward that can shoot 3s, then why not just not make the trade and draft Derrick Williams?

"Projected" does not mean "will be" though. If MIN decides to go for a vet for stability and a sure thing, then Smith is an option.

Ruhiel wrote:from Milwaukee
Sanders+Bogut+Salmons +Gooden
from Atlanta
Williams+Hinrich+Horford

Hate to be a pr!ck, but I'm really getting sick of this trying to steal every thread. Sure, the trade makes some sense, but no, I couldn't see us doing a similar move. Considering that we might be trying to sell the team, I couldn't see us taking on so much extra salary for guys that are injured-prone or already considered horrid contracts. Can't see a guy who hasn't shown much in his limited NBA time being the answer either. Might as well keep what we have over that package.

evildallas · Post #11 » by **evildallas** » Fri May 20, 2011 5:28 am

To be honest I probably didn't balance the trade well, but Minnesota's motivation is to get a sure thing rather than projected upside. Josh is probably not the ideal target, but Joe isn't either and Al doesn't fit either. This is Minnesota's 3rd draft under Kahn and these will be his 8th and 9th first round picks (a lot were traded away after picking). The drafts have been horrible and the only move he's made that worked was accepting Michael Beasley in a Heat give away to create cap space. They've got some talent but it doesn't fit. They've averaged 16 wins a season and they don't have a pick next year (unprotected to the Clippers). The rumored Indiana trade discussions make more sense really but they need to get someone in to push them up instead of wallowing. That's why I brought them up.

clancy · Post #12 » by **clancy** » Fri May 20, 2011 11:39 pm

theatlfan wrote:
Harry10 wrote:Smoove might be better than Beasley, but Derrick Williams is projected to be better than Josh...... so if the Wolves wanted a combo forward that can shoot 3s, then why not just not make the trade and draft Derrick Williams?

"Projected" does not mean "will be" though. If MIN decides to go for a vet for stability and a sure thing, then Smith is an option.

Thanks for a really good laugh on a night I really needed it.

And I honestly don't mean to cause offense by that, or get into a discussion of the merits o' Josh - I literally cracked up when I read that, and I feel much better about life now.