Top 12 Defense

[Ruhiel]

No NBA title team has ever finished worse than 12th defensively. That's why I think

1 Chicago 97.4 <<<7'1.25 Noah, 7'4 Gibson/7' 2.25 Boozer, 7' 0.5 Deng>>
2 Boston 97.8 <<<7'5+ Garnett, 7'0 Pierce>>
3 Orlando 99.1 <<7'5 Howard>>

4 Milwaukee 99.9 <<7'3 Bogut, 7'6 Sanders, 7'0.5>>>

5 Miami 100.7 <<7'5 Anthony, 7'3.5 Bosh, 7'0.25 Lebron>>

6 LA Lakers 101.3 <<Bynum, Gasol, however unathletic at key positions

7 Dallas 102.3 <<Chandler 7'3, Nowitzki, 7'0?, Marion 7'1?
8 New Orleans 102.5 <<Okafor 7'4, West 7'4.25, Ariza 7'2
Memphis 102.5 <<Gasol 7'1, Randolph 6'11, Gay 7'3/Battier 6'10.5/Allen 6'9
Philadelphia 102.5 <<7'5.5 Brand, Iguodala 6'11>>

11 San Antonio 102.8 <<Blair 7'2, Duncan 7'3>>
12 Indiana 103.4 <<Hibbert (slow but 7'6 nonetheless) McRoberts 7'1, Granger 7'2>>>
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13 Oklahoma City 104.
14 Portland 104.2
15 Atlanta 104.6 <<7'0.75 Horford, 7'3 Williams (too bad he's not 6'11), 7'0 Smith>>>
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Bogut, Sanders, Mbah a Moute, Salmons. Look at it from Milwaukee's perspective. Top 4 defense. Now imagine Mbah a Moute becomes Josh Smith. The volume shooter Jennings becomes Rondo pt.2 in Jeff Teague and Delfino becomes 6'8 shooting guard Joe Johnson. Salmons goes from a borderline all star starter who cant put it together into Iguodala-lite.


Gooden is a heavyset Taj Gibson with less length and defense but a better shooter and good as a backup four next to Pachulia. John Brockman becomes Zaza Pachulia. Ilyasova and Keyon Dooling become Al Thornton and {Ronnie Price}. who knows if Bogut and Sanders and Smith are here maybe Michael Redd or McGrady/Grant Hill/Prince etc will eat crow and play for $1 million on a ECF contender team.

worst we get is Thornton who is young and explosive but like Joe Johnson/Marvin better defending/scoring on 2s.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmRh5ixbta4[/youtube]
great 6th man= depth.
would become Top 12 Defense at worst:
Teague/Johnson/Smith/Sanders/Bogut
(Ronnie Price)/Salmons/(Al Thornton)/Gooden/Pachulia

if Milwaukee gives us a pick we can trade our current picks/Sy for proven 7'1 center Semih Erden who was scouted by the Celtics and fit the Boston/Chicago blue collar team identity. Unfortunately they wanted to go for offense and look where it left them Garnett having to play center and Jeff Green being unable to share shots with Pierce and Allen etc =. Celtics wanted small ball offense and drew the short stick, pun intended come playoffs much to Doc Rivers chagrin.

[azuresou1]

A) You didn't post a trade in this tread.
B) The jump from 15th rated defense top 12th rated defense happens simply because we start Teague instead of Bibby for 56 more games.
C) That team you posted is pretty mediocre.

[Ruhiel]

A) You didn't post a trade in this tread.

Marvin Williams + Hinrich + Horford for <Bogut + Sanders+Gooden+Salmons>

That team you posted is pretty mediocre.

def: "mediocre"- of only ordinary or average quality; neither good nor bad
The exact word I used when I saw 15th out of 30 teams.
Hawks are the definition of mediocre pretenders as an inept confused franchise and there was even a thread that said "Atlanta epitomizes whats wrong with the NBA".
Make no mistake about All Star selections Hawks ARE mediocre in every sense of the word.
Not bad enough to utterly fail, not good enough to win or make the right franchise moves.

[azuresou1]

I should tell you up front that the way you post your numbers are very confusing, since it's just a long string of numbers and punctuations.

Adjusted +/- is a pretty garbage system, especially for projecting future performance, Kevin Durant was the single worst player by adjsuted +/- two years ago.

Your assumption that Hinrich must start simply because he is getting paid $8MM is unfounded. Crawford made more last year than Bibby OR Hinrich, and yet was still coming off the bench. Collins had spot starts despite being paid less than Zaza, and far less than Marvin.

[Ruhiel]

Here is the past 4 years adjusted plus minus. http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/4-year-ranking

James, Lebron 10.2
Howard, Dwight 7.6
Odom, Lamar 4.9
Bosh, Chris 4.9
Bryant, Kobe 4.7
Gasol, Pau 4.4
Smith, Josh 4.3
Bogut, Andrew 4.2
Johnson, Joe 3.2

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Now here are team plus/minuses for the better teams in the league.

Lakers
Fisher, Bryant, Artest, Gasol/Odom, Bynum
0.8,4.8, 3.5, 4.4/4.9, 2.2 = +15.7/+16.2

Now the Hawks with Johnson at the 3, with Horford at the 4-5 and Smith staying at the 4-5.

Teague +Johnson, Hinrich/Williams, Smith, Horford
(-0.1) + 3.2 + (- 0.4/-0.8) +4.3, +1.4 = +8.4 with Hinrich starting, +8.0 with Williams
thats less than mediocre
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Teague would have to become Chris Paul to lift any variation of small lineups and our two most positive players are Josh (4.3) and Joe (3.2). into contention.
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Marvin is a negative, Hinrich is a negative overall and Horford is overrated offensively.

Horford comes in tied with Josh Smith for offense. Why? He is what Dirk would be as a midget. He is inept at what getting to the free throw line and shooting over taller/longer defenders.
1.4= tied with Hamed Haddaddi, Brendan Haywood, Boris Diaw, Ilgauskas, and Haywood.
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All those who think his value is as a mismatch on offense are wrong. Matched up around the league he is as inept as Josh albeit in different ways.
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[Ruhiel]

I should tell you up front that the way you post your numbers are very confusing, since it's just a long string of numbers and punctuations.

Adjusted +/- is a pretty garbage system, especially for projecting future performance, Kevin Durant was the single worst player by adjsuted +/- two years ago.

Your assumption that Hinrich must start simply because he is getting paid $8MM is unfounded. Crawford made more last year than Bibby OR Hinrich, and yet was still coming off the bench. Collins had spot starts despite being paid less than Zaza, and far less than Marvin.

Its not an assumption that Crawford is leaving. Neither is it an assumption that
Teague+Smith+Horford+Johnson = 4 players. neither Hinrich nor Marvin Williams is a center. The Hawks need a center. or they will be mediocre at best.

Kevin Durant's adjusted +/- suggests he has very little impact on the game and that Harden and Westbrook dominate their positions more. Durant is a dangerous shooter but he looked like a bad defender last night. U must admit that much.
And we have all seen Rose shoot atrociously and do nothing on defense, yet the Bulls win. Paul does amazing things for the Hornets and they get blownout.
Obviously his teammates make up for it. I rarely use plus minus but this justs one metric that confirms what the eyes see, how over-reliant the Hawks are on Smith.

Durant (+1.1) and Marion (+0.8) were pretty evenly matched last night.
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Key for guards: +/-
Bibby: +0.3
Hinrich: -0.8 (assumably bcuz he's had to defend/score against so many 2s)
Teague: -0.1
Rondo: +0.9
Deron: +3.0
Rose: +1.9
Paul: +7.3

Either way we play small or big we are relying on the potential of Teague and as always Smith and Joe to carry us through.
Horford's value lies in rebounding and giving us a body to throw the ball into the post.
Horford is loved by fans and coaches for his white collar image as a guy who punches above his weight but Horford will never score 40 points or go to the free throw line 15 times. Smith if he tones his body as a 3 however just may. (except Team USA)
His plus minus however shows he is average as Brendan Haywood with less defense and a better set shot.
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* Teague repeats his efficient numbers (Rondo/Terry), with increased PT
* Sanders is the best inside threat in the lineups Bucks use ie next to Mbah a Moute. However when he's next to Bogut he can move without the ball sneak around on baseline and hit open jumpers. With Smith AND Joe as big wings AND Bogut in the post AND Teague we will be excellent transition team and he can be a Taj Gibson type in the halfcourt offense and focus on defense and getting out and running and cutting off of their double teams. He cut down his shots to 5 or less (Ben Wallace, -1.4 on offense). His numbers are even distorted because Bucks went small with him playing center next to Mbah a Moute at times.
The less attention stops Sanders from being such a negative on offense.
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If that number (Sanders offense) goes up, the Hawks are even with the WCF (50 win) Dallas Mavericks starting 5. [13.4] = [1.9+3.5+4.3 (-0.5) + 4.2]. With this lineup we can single cover, contest and block out every lineup in the playoffs right now, Miami included and can evenhave the advantage especially when they go small.
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Being a 60 win team doesn't mean much anymore because the decline of defense at the center position. In the end Joakim Noah is 235 pounds and all he has to do is play with energy and the Bulls win. Now he has Chris Bosh guarding him and he is held to 6 rebounds.

To contend we have to match up well and defend and rebound 1st and foremost. teams like Miami, Chicago, Orlando, Dallas etc. all have their weaknesses.

Orlando Magic
[Jameer + Redick + Turkoglu+Bass/Anderson]+ Howard
2.1 + (-0.5) + 2.7 + (0.0) +7.6 = 11.9

WCF Mavericks
Kidd, Terry, Marion, Nowitzki, Haywood/Chandler
1.9+ 1.9 + 0.8+7.8 + 2.6= 15/13.8

Hawks {with Horford, Williams, Hinrich upgrade}
Teague, Johnson, Smith, Sanders, Bogut
0.9** + 3.2 + 4.3** + (-1.3)** + 4.2= 11.3
ECF Bulls
Rose + Bogans+Deng+(Boozer+Noah
1.9 + (0.2) + 3.8 + 2.2 + 2.4= 10.5

WCF Thunder
Westbrook+Harden+Durant+Ibaka+Perkins
4.1 + 4.0+ 1.1+ 0.5+ 2.7/0.6= 10.3
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**Teague,not Smith at 230-235 lbs, but at slower less dynamic 245
**Sanders played center at times with Mbah a Moute/Brockman and Delfino at the 3 and 4;
Teague, Smith and Sanders can all improve as dynamic 2 way players in some way, same cannot be said about Horford.
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http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/4-year-ranking

numbers will always be distorted because of minutes and different lineups etc.
but the point is no team has ever won without a top defense mentality/ability.
Currently the only top-20 2-way player the Hawks have is Josh Smith and only he dropping to ideal weight and Teague increasing minutes and developing are the only ways to improve this team.
Bogut is a top 20, 2-way player and an upgrade from Horford is incapable of improving his defending or creating his own shot against the 4s and 5s who will be featured in the playoffs going forward.

[azuresou1]

Adjusted +/- is a garbage metric that tells you nothing of value.