Lakers/Pistons Model, [Horf + Sy trade]

[Ruhiel]

Ruhiel,

Thanks, The thing is I dont see Hawks getting a chip next year but if the pieces go right they have a chance to get to ECF. I liked the matchup with them when they played Orlando and the Chicago series was more disappointing since they were right there.

How do the Hawks compare to those Nique's Atlanta Hawks teams from say 1986 to 1993 and then the Blaylok Smith Mutumbo teams?

Nique's teams were shallow defensively and relied their high powered offense, like a lot of 80s teams.
Moses had a few good years on DEF but he wasnt a premier 2 way player.

Come playoffs his offense falters or defense falters. Rivers and Nique were pretty bad.
By the time Moses came along...it was too late.

The Blaylock teams would be contenders nowadays. Their problem was like the POR trailblazers with Pippen, Sabonis and Steve...they assembled too late.

Blaylock had a steep decline when Mutombo came over in 97-98. Blaylock's teams wer heavy on star power but ran into CHI and ORL's HOF teams.

Was Smitty really that bad on defense. wow. 8.5 wins on OFfense less than 2 on defense.

In 1998 relied heavily on one defender and star wing offense. Wow. Looking at the Def Rtg between Mutombo and Smitty reminds of Smith and Johnson divide

[brigadierjerry]

Ruhiel,

Thanks, The thing is I dont see Hawks getting a chip next year but if the pieces go right they have a chance to get to ECF. I liked the matchup with them when they played Orlando and the Chicago series was more disappointing since they were right there.

How do the Hawks compare to those Nique's Atlanta Hawks teams from say 1986 to 1993 and then the Blaylok Smith Mutumbo teams?

Nique's teams were shallow defensively and relied their high powered offense, like a lot of 80s teams.
Moses had a few good years on DEF but he wasnt a premier 2 way player.

Come playoffs his offense falters or defense falters. Rivers and Nique were pretty bad.
By the time Moses came along...it was too late.

The Blaylock teams would be contenders nowadays. Their problem was like the POR trailblazers with Pippen, Sabonis and Steve...they assembled too late.

Blaylock had a steep decline when Mutombo came over in 97-98. Blaylock's teams wer heavy on star power but ran into CHI and ORL's HOF teams.

Was Smitty really that bad on defense. wow. 8.5 wins on OFfense less than 2 on defense.

In 1998 relied heavily on one defender and star wing offense. Wow. Looking at the Def Rtg between Mutombo and Smitty reminds of Smith and Johnson divide

Ok. My last request is can you give me all the one man superstar teams such as Dirk Nowitzski, the 1994 Rockets team, Tim Duncan teams after Robinson retired etc that have won championships since the 1970's and compare them to the Hawks current roster

[Ruhiel]

Ok. My last request is can you give me all the one man superstar teams such as Dirk Nowitzski, the 1994 Rockets team, Tim Duncan teams after Robinson retired etc that have won championships since the 1970's and compare them to the Hawks current roster

DAL
Just looking at #s Dirk Dampier Diop had the most Defensive Wins. Josh Howard missed a ton of games, Terry was a bad defender. Harris was close.

From my knowledge of that team Howard was there best defensive stopper. 31yo Stackhouse took more possessions (USG%) than anyone other than Dirk while on the floor.
His #s are not dissimilar to JJ last season.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DAL/2006.html

2006 was actually a heavier defensive team than 2011. 2011 Jason Kidd led the team in Defensive Wins.Followed by Chandler Marion Dirk Terry and Haywood.

This is warped by the minutes they all played of course. This time they had less defense but it was spread out.
2011 had 25,6 Defensive Wins out of 57 Games won. 2010 LAL had 29.4 out of 57.

The team I designed with everyone operating at 13%WS-48 had 21.8 DEFwins out of 49 wins (adjusted to 77 game season) and designed to spread the defense in the playoffs. This year Hawks were 21,8 out of 44 wins and we all know about every year in the playoffs.

SAS
Duncan was ridiculous after Robinson retired. Imagine DRtg being a percentage of points out of 100 allowed
Rank Player DRtg Season
1. Ben Wallace 87.48 2003-04
2. Elvin Hayes* 87.60 1974-75
3. David Robinson* 87.94 1998-99
4. Bob Lanier* 87.99 1973-74
5. Wes Unseld* 88.24 1974-75
6. Tim Duncan 88.50 2003-04

There was no dropoff from Robinson to Duncan. Very unfair. At age 26 Manu GInobili won 5.1 games with his defense playing next to Duncan.
That's Josh Smith's career high. Duncan was a pretty incredible shot deterrent.

At age 21 he won more games with his Defense than Al Horford's offense has ever won. Thats why I laugh when people say Al has "potential" but stop short of superstar.

Horf had 266 assists and had a 17% Usage Rate.
Duncan has only had that many or more 3 times in his illustrious career. Horford is nowhere near the 7'0 Duncan in terms of Offensive rebounding, putbacks or post ability.

moving the ball to our 3 or 4 shooters is how everyone helps Al's game. If he could defend and was 7'0 240 and capable of stretching out to 3 point line. Instead of 6'9.75 240 and only a mid range shooter with the proportionate body of David Lee...
As is the Offense is clogged and meticulous.

HOU
Olajuwon was a superior DEF player and a volume shooter who got to the free throw line. The first season they went with a 6'10 SMALL forwARd by the name of Robert Horry. The second season he had Clyde Drexler and shifted Horry to the stretch 4 with a Kenny Smith, Elie and Cassell rotation.

Matter of fact I made this PowerPoint just yesterday.
http://www.mediafire.com/?kh6ca26589g3453
HORFORD is a different type of player, Not a Eastern Conf, Defensive Halfcourt Player man...

Offensive Rating
1. Brad Miller -SAC(05) 125 jump shooting center+Bibby+Stojavobic
1. Nene Hilario-DEN 124.3 dunker,
2. J.J. Redick-ORL 123.2 shooter+Dwight
3. Chris Paul-NOH 121.9 HOF PG
4. Al Horford-ATL 121.4 pick and pop center+Jamal Crawford+Joe Johnson+Smith + passer

now either Nene JJ Redick and AL are as good as Chris Paul or we're stuck with an offensive gimmick player.

No one plays at the pace Al does and wins games. His defense cant be lowered with this team as currently constructed.

off DEF
1.21 1.05 Horford- pick and pop speed center
1.15 1.06 Diaw 2006

1.14 1.01 Shaq (2001) slow down half court and get Free throws center
1.12 1.05 Bryant (2001) half court iso and get free throws
1.13 1.05 Hasheem 2010 block shots and give to MEM teammates, best Defense Rtg % on team *(1.17 1.04 thru March 2010)

1.11 .94 Duncan 2007
1.18 1.00 Marion 2006
1.25 1.03 Chris Paul 2008
1.13 1.00 Magic Johnson 1980 (yes the 80s and his defense, was that good)
1.14 1.00 Michael Jordan 1998
1.10 1.00 Hakeem Olajuwon 1995
1.10 .95 Kevin Garnett 2011
1.09 1.00 Josh Smith 2010 (wasted a year playing wanton small ball)
1.07 1.03 Shawn Marion 2011

He's won 10 Games this season and last. He's not going to become a defensive stopper trade him for Thabeet and a Zaza type in Hill with Motiejunas as the offensive star who will play defense just as well as Al.
That frontcourt moves Smith to likely the secondary best defender on the team. Instead of the first and also allows him to slim down to be more agile and active on the court.

Moving Al for a stretch 4 who can post up and get to the free throw...And Joe. And the option to post Smith or just shoot and he'll dive for rebounds (Smith leads all SFs in REB%, Al is not even top 20 in REB for PFs).

With Josh and Joe already in the lineup and then you throw Motiejunas in there instead of iso Crawford and strictly pick and pop Horford.

Now there's just too many options on offense we have arguably best bench in the East (CHI included) and we actually look like a contender.

[brigadierjerry]

Ok. My last request is can you give me all the one man superstar teams such as Dirk Nowitzski, the 1994 Rockets team, Tim Duncan teams after Robinson retired etc that have won championships since the 1970's and compare them to the Hawks current roster

DAL
Just looking at #s Dirk Dampier Diop had the most Defensive Wins. Josh Howard missed a ton of games, Terry was a bad defender. Harris was close.

From my knowledge of that team Howard was there best defensive stopper. 31yo Stackhouse took more possessions (USG%) than anyone other than Dirk while on the floor.
His #s are not dissimilar to JJ last season.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DAL/2006.html

2006 was actually a heavier defensive team than 2011. 2011 Jason Kidd led the team in Defensive Wins.Followed by Chandler Marion Dirk Terry and Haywood.

This is warped by the minutes they all played of course. This time they had less defense but it was spread out.
2011 had 25,6 Defensive Wins out of 57 Games won. 2010 LAL had 29.4 out of 57.

The team I designed with everyone operating at 13%WS-48 had 21.8 DEFwins out of 49 wins (adjusted to 77 game season) and designed to spread the defense in the playoffs. This year Hawks were 21,8 out of 44 wins and we all know about every year in the playoffs.

SAS
Duncan was ridiculous after Robinson retired. Imagine DRtg being a percentage of points out of 100 allowed
Rank Player DRtg Season
1. Ben Wallace 87.48 2003-04
2. Elvin Hayes* 87.60 1974-75
3. David Robinson* 87.94 1998-99
4. Bob Lanier* 87.99 1973-74
5. Wes Unseld* 88.24 1974-75
6. Tim Duncan 88.50 2003-04

There was no dropoff from Robinson to Duncan. Very unfair. At age 26 Manu GInobili won 5.1 games with his defense playing next to Duncan.
That's Josh Smith's career high. Duncan was a pretty incredible shot deterrent.

At age 21 he won more games with his Defense than Al Horford's offense has ever won. Thats why I laugh when people say Al has "potential" but stop short of superstar.

Horf had 266 assists and had a 17% Usage Rate.
Duncan has only had that many or more 3 times in his illustrious career. Horford is nowhere near the 7'0 Duncan in terms of Offensive rebounding, putbacks or post ability.

moving the ball to our 3 or 4 shooters is how everyone helps Al's game. If he could defend and was 7'0 240 and capable of stretching out to 3 point line. Instead of 6'9.75 240 and only a mid range shooter with the proportionate body of David Lee...
As is the Offense is clogged and meticulous.

HOU
Olajuwon was a superior DEF player and a volume shooter who got to the free throw line. The first season they went with a 6'10 SMALL forwARd by the name of Robert Horry. The second season he had Clyde Drexler and shifted Horry to the stretch 4 with a Kenny Smith, Elie and Cassell rotation.

Matter of fact I made this PowerPoint just yesterday.
http://www.mediafire.com/?kh6ca26589g3453
HORFORD is a different type of player, Not a Eastern Conf, Defensive Halfcourt Player man...

Offensive Rating
1. Brad Miller -SAC(05) 125 jump shooting center+Bibby+Stojavobic
1. Nene Hilario-DEN 124.3 dunker,
2. J.J. Redick-ORL 123.2 shooter+Dwight
3. Chris Paul-NOH 121.9 HOF PG
4. Al Horford-ATL 121.4 pick and pop center+Jamal Crawford+Joe Johnson+Smith + passer

now either Nene JJ Redick and AL are as good as Chris Paul or we're stuck with an offensive gimmick player.

No one plays at the pace Al does and wins games. His defense cant be lowered with this team as currently constructed.

off DEF
1.21 1.05 Horford- pick and pop speed center
1.15 1.06 Diaw 2006

1.14 1.01 Shaq (2001) slow down half court and get Free throws center
1.12 1.05 Bryant (2001) half court iso and get free throws
1.13 1.05 Hasheem 2010 block shots and give to MEM teammates, best Defense Rtg % on team *(1.17 1.04 thru March 2010)

1.11 .94 Duncan 2007
1.18 1.00 Marion 2006
1.25 1.03 Chris Paul 2008
1.13 1.00 Magic Johnson 1980 (yes the 80s and his defense, was that good)
1.14 1.00 Michael Jordan 1998
1.10 1.00 Hakeem Olajuwon 1995
1.10 .95 Kevin Garnett 2011
1.09 1.00 Josh Smith 2010 (wasted a year playing wanton small ball)
1.07 1.03 Shawn Marion 2011

He's won 10 Games this season and last. He's not going to become a defensive stopper trade him for Thabeet and a Zaza type in Hill with Motiejunas as the offensive star who will play defense just as well as Al.
That frontcourt moves Smith to likely the secondary best defender on the team. Instead of the first and also allows him to slim down to be more agile and active on the court.

Moving Al for a stretch 4 who can post up and get to the free throw...And Joe. And the option to post Smith or just shoot and he'll dive for rebounds (Smith leads all SFs in REB%, Al is not even top 20 in REB for PFs).

With Josh and Joe already in the lineup and then you throw Motiejunas in there instead of iso Crawford and strictly pick and pop Horford.

Now there's just too many options on offense we have arguably best bench in the East (CHI included) and we actually look like a contender.

Ruhiel,

One thing I would like to see I am sure this is true 95% of the time if you can check the last NBA champions the last 35 years have always had at least an adequate defensive big man. Can you check that?The reason why I ask is that as it was really shown in this year Finals, having Chandler can cover up a lot of weaknesses on the team and the Hawks dont really have someone like that can fill a Chandler role. I would like Smith to become that I think he has a much better chance at becoming that than Horford. You know what Horford reminds me of a lot of PJ Brown. Horford has better career numbers. They are similar type of players. Can you match your stats with those two. The Hawks really need to find a Tyson Chandler type of player that can really cover up the Hawks defensive deficiencies. Dont know where that person would be coming from. Haywood would be of minimal help.

[Ruhiel]

Ruhiel,

One thing I would like to see I am sure this is true 95% of the time if you can check the last NBA champions the last 35 years have always had at least an adequate defensive big man. Can you check that?The reason why I ask is that as it was really shown in this year Finals, having Chandler can cover up a lot of weaknesses on the team and the Hawks dont really have someone like that can fill a Chandler role. I would like Smith to become that I think he has a much better chance at becoming that than Horford. You know what Horford reminds me of a lot of PJ Brown. Horford has better career numbers. They are similar type of players. Can you match your stats with those two. The Hawks really need to find a Tyson Chandler type of player that can really cover up the Hawks defensive deficiencies. Dont know where that person would be coming from. Haywood would be of minimal help.

If you look at his percentages Smith he's a small forward on championship teams.

He's not taking Shaq's or Alonzo;s place or Kareem or Dave Cowens. Nor is he a better rebounder than Boozer or Chandler.

Marion and Gerald Wallace in their primes were better than Smith but you see what happened with Marion he had to pair up with a high volume shooter and a defensive of chandler.

This is what I have seen in most frontcourts want to reconstruct.

defense sf
volume shooter pf
defense c

I'll try to assemble the #s but ATL has to swallow their pride and admit Smith is a small forward. At power forward you give anybody with size to affect the game to a better degree.
For him to play the C-PF spot you're going to need a superstar to obscure his weaknesses.

As far as the past 10 years the Shaq, Duncan dominated and got old. And then its Garnett, Gasol, Nowitzki.

Garnett dominated Gasol, then Gasol defeated the smaller rebounding Lewis. THen Gasol over the aging Garnett who would get foul trouble the first quarter.

Then Nowitzki and Chandler > Bosh and Anthony. The small forward position has been interchangeable/secondary to having a certain type of power forward.

Now that these power forwards (and Garnett has no center) are aging we can extend our window tremendously. Elton Brand is a threat at the key PF position and has a center now. Amare is turning 30 soon?

We have enough youth and win generaters (post trade) to win against anyone in the playoffs. Noah is just a tall power forward strength and length wise. As we see in Miami series you can go small on him and outskill the Bulls.

If he had the ability to consistently hit a baseline jump shot we'd be looking at the next Duncan/Garnett. ..

[Ruhiel]

Looking at Boston 2008 their rebounding was overrated. KG is not as dominant on the boards as I expected

Explains why we were able to hang at times with them.

[brigadierjerry]

Looking at Boston 2008 their rebounding was overrated. KG is not as dominant on the boards as I expected

Explains why we were able to hang at times with them.

Ruhiel,

I would like to say that you gave some good points on the Hawks blog at the AJC.com. Regardless on whether or not we agree to get a Thabeet and your other players you brought up some good points such as:



I’m not saying I’d trade big for small at ALL but Chris Paul> Horford. His team has won consistently.

2004-2005 New Orleans was 18 win team. Next season 38 win team.
Al Horford did not join an 18 win team. He joined a 30 win team as a college center who just won the NCAA tournament and the team that had no big men.

We went from 30 to 37 wins. At age 22 CP led his team to 56 wins with no small ball involved.
Chandler, West, Stojacovic, and Morris Peterson.

Using PER, WS/48, True Shooting and Percentage of Possessions used, assist %… there is no way Horford is even close to a healthy Hall of Fame guard in his prime.

Shaquille O’Neal 18.65
Chris Paul’s career high Wins is 18.29

Al Horford 10.9,
Troy Murphy? 8.5
Kwame Brown 4.9?

on a per minute basis Horford is very replaceable with 3 role playing big men. Chris Paul not easily replaced, you need a guard and/or talent bigs.

Horford has improved his assists every year. However with his increased points his free throw attempts go down because he’s unable to dribble past anybody and draw fouls.

He led the team in minutes and shot how many free throws last year?

Minutes FTA Assists Player
2880 388 782 Chris Paul

2870 597 202 Amare Stoudemire
2504 443 190 Nowitzki
2724 396 163 Zach Randolph
2451 327 164 David West
2809 273 120 Elton Brand
2639 246 249 Lamar Odom backup!
1882 244 145 Boozer

3112 695 312 Blake Austin Griffin rookie
2156 257 203 Duncan, 34 yo 7′0 PF
2222 233 105 Greg Monroe, 20 yo 6′11 PF
1576 188 107 Joakim Noah

2704 188 266 Al horford

1748 minutes- J. Hill – 153 FTA. 49 assists
He’s not a power forward. He’s not a defensive center.

His skillset is that of a smart center. Problem is once you get to the playoffs everyone’s just as smart and it comes down to skill.

What NBA players actually are intimidated by Horford?

Horford passing skills do not translate to playoffs bcuz its all based on him being smarter than opponent,

Noah missed half the season and still tied Al for FTA. critique and trade for traditional scoring big men is warranted.

What I have listed in bold is probably your best point I have seen you made which is why I am all for a defensive Tyson Chandler type even moreso than a Brandon Haywood type center cause Tyson plays defense and will mask any deficiencies by the other Hawks players if their opponents blow past them. IT was Chandler and the role players are the biggest reason why Dallas won. If Smith or Horford is traded and you can get a Tyson Chandler type player and 1 or two good role players than the Hawks will be alright. That is the reason why Dallas won.

[Ruhiel]

Chandler on a per minute basis was the 5th most productive player in the league.

Would Dallas trade that defense for Horford an offensive center who needs touches and cant even defend Bargnani?

neither can Smith. Here is where we are overrating OUR players. The only way we get Chandler is S&T.

Also Chandler is inj. prone and older than Motiejunas, Hill, Thabeet, Malcolm Thomas AND Horford.

Our window shrinks. I doubt that Chandler is as productive with Joe Johnson+Smith+? as he was with Dirk a guy who uses 28% of possessions. Joe and Smith can only manage 25% each.

Chandler platooned their big men and is a big part of why they won but he would obviously regress without a clearcut shot taker on the team.

All he can do is alter shots and help start the break.

Chandler for Smith would never go down.

Smith in this post team is a very small piece of the team and facilitates a stretch 4 (Motiejunas).

Who is going to stretch the floor and hunt be our high volume shooter and slasher?
with Horford+Smith or Horford+Chandler or Smith+Chandler? Marvin Williams? Josh Smith? Al Horford? fail.

Being a 7'0 mismatch Bargnani uses 28% of his teams possessions and only turns it over 10%.
Horford turns it over 10% and only uses 18% of his possessions and he assists 17%.
Duncan uses 28%. Amare 30%.

If u examine Al's game he is a passer not a 7 foot scorer... 2 FTA per game because of inability to dribble like a smaller player...

neither Smith or Horford could unseat Gasol (offensive boards+efficiency), Nowitzki (Usage and Efficiency), or Duncan (offensive boards+efficiency) at PF. Or Garnett (Defensive Points Allowed, DEF Rebounding, Usage% AND Assist%.

Together Smith and Motiejunas could have a Duncan type impact.

For Horford to succeed he'd need a Tyson Chandler AND a high usage small forward ie Durant.

[brigadierjerry]

Chandler on a per minute basis was the 5th most productive player in the league.

Would Dallas trade that defense for Horford an offensive center who needs touches and cant even defend Bargnani?

neither can Smith. Here is where we are overrating OUR players. The only way we get Chandler is S&T.

Also Chandler is inj. prone and older than Motiejunas, Hill, Thabeet, Malcolm Thomas AND Horford.

Our window shrinks. I doubt that Chandler is as productive with Joe Johnson+Smith+? as he was with Dirk a guy who uses 28% of possessions. Joe and Smith can only manage 25% each.

Chandler platooned their big men and is a big part of why they won but he would obviously regress without a clearcut shot taker on the team.

All he can do is alter shots and help start the break.

Chandler for Smith would never go down.

Smith in this post team is a very small piece of the team and facilitates a stretch 4 (Motiejunas).

Who is going to stretch the floor and hunt be our high volume shooter and slasher?
with Horford+Smith or Horford+Chandler or Smith+Chandler? Marvin Williams? Josh Smith? Al Horford? fail.

Being a 7'0 mismatch Bargnani uses 28% of his teams possessions and only turns it over 10%.
Horford turns it over 10% and only uses 18% of his possessions and he assists 17%.
Duncan uses 28%. Amare 30%.

If u examine Al's game he is a passer not a 7 foot scorer... 2 FTA per game because of inability to dribble like a smaller player...

neither Smith or Horford could unseat Gasol (offensive boards+efficiency), Nowitzki (Usage and Efficiency), or Duncan (offensive boards+efficiency) at PF. Or Garnett (Defensive Points Allowed, DEF Rebounding, Usage% AND Assist%.

Together Smith and Motiejunas could have a Duncan type impact.

For Horford to succeed he'd need a Tyson Chandler AND a high usage small forward ie Durant.

Ruhiel,

I agree about Chandler I wasnt advocating trading Horford for Chandler. I wouldnt mind Thabeet only if he gets waived by Houston or if you trade him for Marvin Williams who I know you like to be a backup 2 guard for the Hawks. 2 questions

First who are the top 8 teams in the East this coming season whenever that is and how would you rank them 1 to 8.

Second, if the chances of making the trades you have suggested are slim to none, what other group of moves would you make similar or different then your original Thabeet deal?

[Ruhiel]

Ruhiel,

I agree about Chandler I wasnt advocating trading Horford for Chandler. I wouldnt mind Thabeet only if he gets waived by Houston or if you trade him for Marvin Williams who I know you like to be a backup 2 guard for the Hawks. 2 questions

Thabeet (10%) +Smith (25%)+ Horford (20%)= 50% Usage,
that still leaves JJ and Teague responsible for 50% of possessions. Subtract JJ's 26% usage and that leaves Teague responsible for 24% of the offense.
Hell of a load to put on Teague and planning for failure. He's 22% usage at best. thats why we put

First who are the top 8 teams in the East this coming season whenever that is and how would you rank them 1 to 8.

1- MIA + Dalembert- still a shallow bench and another pg/sf to go with DW + LJ . they'll be a defend and run team with Dalembert.
Bcuz he hustles and blocks shots, People don't realize how bad Joel Anthony is rebounding wise. With Dalembert they'll still need to upgrade Mike Miller. He was not the big guard mismatch they expected. That being said they made the Finals last year.
2- Chicago + JR Smith- Smith is a streaky shooter. He looks like he's taking bad shots because he's a big guard and u'd think he'd slash more. But he has average NBA length to dribble with and overrelys on jumpshots and fast break dunks.

The catch - because Smith shoots so many 3s and dunks his career high True Shooting% was 60.3% on 26% usage. He has not reached those #s since '08 (more minutes/feuds with Karl?) but playing with Bulls should boost his #s a lot.
Streaky shooter and could stall Chicago's offense at times allowing teams to surge back but...very dangerous.
Expect to see him match Joe Johnson in the playoffs for what? one fifth Joe's salary?

3- Philadelphia- The Sixers seemed like idiots for trading a premium center Dalembert for Hawes and drafting Turner only to realize he's not as good a big guard as Iguodala.
Speights is a great offense-first talent but only performs well when he's not sharing shots (ie next to a defense-first center).
With so many overlapping talent and Vucevic's age perhaps they are ranked too high. But they do have depth now and a center.
With Brand regaining form, expect Vucevic to outperform his draft position of No. 16.

4- Atlanta- win on talent not organization. Horford cannot play well in a big lineup in the playoffs. Spacing is off. Usage is low. Thus
For Horford to succeed he'd have to play with a high usage player and a defensive player in sf and center. Ie Dwight howard + Josh Smith or Perkins+ Durant/Pierce.

ATL seems like the franchise over invest in players who receive rewards so they an have better perception around the league. Like they're peaccocking and have no clue, how to construct a (rebounding and easy scoring) winning team.

They have a passing big man and surround him with shooters and are completely content with accolades instead of wins.
Horf is a low usage/creativity player who excels in assist %. thats why we put so many shooters around him to excel. Bibby, Crawford, $128 mil for Joe+Williams.
So much spacing lol.

Instead of switching to a Josh-Smith-just-passed-Shawn-Marion-as-the-best-rebounding-SF-in-the game-and-is-a-great-post-play-SF + stretch4+ center+ Joe Johnson...

This team will return with the same Orlando type formula: AL Horford + shooters then switch with big men and fail every time.
I half expect Smith to come back 250 lbs this time. If hes gonna defend and rebound vs PFs full time why not?

Other Teams added quality rookies, CHI and other teams retooled, us switching between traditional and small guard lineups... players could pack it in and season would be shot.

5- New York- offense is their defense, no center last year. have not seen Harrelson play but he measured identical to Kevin Love albeit 20 lbs heavier and looks like he could be a bruiser.
Knicks will take what they can get.
Iman Shumpert, amongst others measured similar to Arenas and Jamal Crawford. A 6'5 player with average NBA wingspan, will have to rely on jumper and develop extreme body control to beat NBA defenders. If his shot is falling...
.......
6- {wherever D.Howard is}/Orlando- have semi-canned their dumb strategy of surrounding Dwight w/ 1 dimensional players. But not all the way (contractual obligations)
is Justin Harper enough? will he guard Smith? Johnson? Will Arenas recover after long layoff? who knows.

Orlando seems to have gotten the message of "size" but still logistically... Dwight Howard will nvr win as long as his team has no size down low next to him.

7- Milwaukee- added a 7'0 PF, however he's 220 as of now.could be 230. measured with David Lee's length on a 7'0 frame.
A taller Hansbrough? can he get FTA? who knows? but Mbah a Moute + Bogut = no offense

8- Indiana- Hibbert is overrated, he can do some things because of lack of size at C, but he's bird chested and slow footed. At perhaps the weakest position in the NBA Horford abuses him. Guards dunk on him.
Heard he's putting on weight... but 7'2+ players who are efficient scorers are historically, very rare.

That being said the best PF available is Mr. David West, who will be 30 next season. they might pass and develop Hansborough?

what is G. Hill's role? P. George? will Granger be traded? Still as with anyone on this list, Hawks should be afraid because unlike the Hawks they have defined roles and have scrappy players who are their only to play defense and score opportunistically booned by Granger of course.

[brigadierjerry]

Ruhiel,

I agree about Chandler I wasnt advocating trading Horford for Chandler. I wouldnt mind Thabeet only if he gets waived by Houston or if you trade him for Marvin Williams who I know you like to be a backup 2 guard for the Hawks. 2 questions

Thabeet (10%) +Smith (25%)+ Horford (20%)= 50% Usage,
that still leaves JJ and Teague responsible for 50% of possessions. Subtract JJ's 26% usage and that leaves Teague responsible for 24% of the offense.
Hell of a load to put on Teague and planning for failure. He's 22% usage at best. thats why we put

First who are the top 8 teams in the East this coming season whenever that is and how would you rank them 1 to 8.

1- MIA + Dalembert- still a shallow bench and another pg/sf to go with DW + LJ . they'll be a defend and run team with Dalembert.
Bcuz he hustles and blocks shots, People don't realize how bad Joel Anthony is rebounding wise. With Dalembert they'll still need to upgrade Mike Miller. He was not the big guard mismatch they expected. That being said they made the Finals last year.
2- Chicago + JR Smith- Smith is a streaky shooter. He looks like he's taking bad shots because he's a big guard and u'd think he'd slash more. But he has average NBA length to dribble with and overrelys on jumpshots and fast break dunks.

The catch - because Smith shoots so many 3s and dunks his career high True Shooting% was 60.3% on 26% usage. He has not reached those #s since '08 (more minutes/feuds with Karl?) but playing with Bulls should boost his #s a lot.
Streaky shooter and could stall Chicago's offense at times allowing teams to surge back but...very dangerous.
Expect to see him match Joe Johnson in the playoffs for what? one fifth Joe's salary?

3- Philadelphia- The Sixers seemed like idiots for trading a premium center Dalembert for Hawes and drafting Turner only to realize he's not as good a big guard as Iguodala.
Speights is a great offense-first talent but only performs well when he's not sharing shots (ie next to a defense-first center).
With so many overlapping talent and Vucevic's age perhaps they are ranked too high. But they do have depth now and a center.
With Brand regaining form, expect Vucevic to outperform his draft position of No. 16.

4- Atlanta- win on talent not organization. Horford cannot play well in a big lineup in the playoffs. Spacing is off. Usage is low. Thus
For Horford to succeed he'd have to play with a high usage player and a defensive player in sf and center. Ie Dwight howard + Josh Smith or Perkins+ Durant/Pierce.

ATL seems like the franchise over invest in players who receive rewards so they an have better perception around the league. Like they're peaccocking and have no clue, how to construct a (rebounding and easy scoring) winning team.

They have a passing big man and surround him with shooters and are completely content with accolades instead of wins.
Horf is a low usage/creativity player who excels in assist %. thats why we put so many shooters around him to excel. Bibby, Crawford, $128 mil for Joe+Williams.
So much spacing lol.

Instead of switching to a Josh-Smith-just-passed-Shawn-Marion-as-the-best-rebounding-SF-in-the game-and-is-a-great-post-play-SF + stretch4+ center+ Joe Johnson...

This team will return with the same Orlando type formula: AL Horford + shooters then switch with big men and fail every time.
I half expect Smith to come back 250 lbs this time. If hes gonna defend and rebound vs PFs full time why not?

Other Teams added quality rookies, CHI and other teams retooled, us switching between traditional and small guard lineups... players could pack it in and season would be shot.

5- New York- offense is their defense, no center last year. have not seen Harrelson play but he measured identical to Kevin Love albeit 20 lbs heavier and looks like he could be a bruiser.
Knicks will take what they can get.
Iman Shumpert, amongst others measured similar to Arenas and Jamal Crawford. A 6'5 player with average NBA wingspan, will have to rely on jumper and develop extreme body control to beat NBA defenders. If his shot is falling...
.......
6- {wherever D.Howard is}/Orlando- have semi-canned their dumb strategy of surrounding Dwight w/ 1 dimensional players. But not all the way (contractual obligations)
is Justin Harper enough? will he guard Smith? Johnson? Will Arenas recover after long layoff? who knows.

Orlando seems to have gotten the message of "size" but still logistically... Dwight Howard will nvr win as long as his team has no size down low next to him.

7- Milwaukee- added a 7'0 PF, however he's 220 as of now.could be 230. measured with David Lee's length on a 7'0 frame.
A taller Hansbrough? can he get FTA? who knows? but Mbah a Moute + Bogut = no offense

8- Indiana- Hibbert is overrated, he can do some things because of lack of size at C, but he's bird chested and slow footed. At perhaps the weakest position in the NBA Horford abuses him. Guards dunk on him.
Heard he's putting on weight... but 7'2+ players who are efficient scorers are historically, very rare.

That being said the best PF available is Mr. David West, who will be 30 next season. they might pass and develop Hansborough?

what is G. Hill's role? P. George? will Granger be traded? Still as with anyone on this list, Hawks should be afraid because unlike the Hawks they have defined roles and have scrappy players who are their only to play defense and score opportunistically booned by Granger of course.

Where is Boston on this list?They wont fall that far off

[Ruhiel]

Brigadierjerry, if we cant beat Boston after 4 years when they lost their center, and their anchor Garnett is half retired and plays 30 minutes per game...

well then A) you must be playing 4 small guard lineupss out there B) you're bigs are as soft as 4 small guards.

Seriously though I did this with an eye on the playoffs and Boston was so far off my radar I completely forgot them.
Boston is going to have to be more and more offense oriented and the only way they beat us is if we play small and let them rebound with us.
There rookies look nice but going forward they are very close to rebuilding and for them to be considered a threat we'd have to play their game and try to outshoot Pierce and Allen in a halfcourt non rebounding lineup....












Damn, barring any trades I guess they are a threat.

[Ruhiel]

Second, if the chances of making the trades you have suggested are slim to none, what other group of moves would you make similar or different then your original Thabeet deal?

Firstly, lets disregard, Shaq, Ben Wallace, and Duncan dominance for the first 1/2 of the decade.

Dating back to 2006... title frontcourts. Backups generally attempt to bring the same things as starters, rebounding and shooting balance.
.....
Below I see
* only one team, Boston had zero players grabbing 1/10 missed boards. Still grabbed 1/5 as a starting frontcourt. Dangerous for a team with 4 total Gold categories. Usage%, Assist%, Steal% and True Shooting %. So Boston's bigs (Pierce is a big guy for those who havent noticed) only grabbed 41% of all boards. But they used 60% of possessions on offense, facilitated half of their teammates offense, and they achieved over 180% true shooting combined.
Only 2 other starting frontcourts registered that. One team had Magic Johnson passing guys the ball and the other was Dallas 2011.
Also stole 5% of all possessions which also helps indicate defensive length and disruption in this case.

* Offensive Rebounding is extremely important on hiding weaknesses on a contender.

*Even with Kobe Bryant (he uses 32% of offense iirc), Lakers big men starters use 58% of team possessions.




If you notice Garnett by himself defensive Rebounded near 26% of all defensive boards, combined with Perkins and Pierce that is a lot of secured misses and in this case is indicative of just how little second chances their defense allowed.
...............
now look at us.

Smith has the worst rebound % for a PF not named Dirk Nowitzki. But is Smith ever called soft? No, he's called boneheaded.
Truth is he's literally a small forward.

Between ATL, LAL, DAL, and BOS...even in the big lineup Atlanta "frontcourt" is out of their league.
They have THE worst Possession Usage (indicative of aggressive shot selection) to Assist Ratios.
On the flip side they have highest amount of assists. I remember reading Doc Rivers praising Al and the thing that hit a cord with me was he said "the bigs outrun the guards" and "inverted fastbreak".
That is true and by design. ATL 1stly desires to keep Al on the floor, so they get shooters and isolationists to complement his passing awareness.
Not guards who will run out and dunk on you or get fouled trying in transition.

Its why Bibby started over Teague and Teague was never considered. First and foremost coaches looked at spacing.
They obsess over 3s because it erases all boneheaded coaching mistakes. When it fails you just blame it on Smith being a bad stretch 4 and needing to make people play up on him so he can beat people off the dribble without a jump shot.
So we get Bibby, Hinrich, Crawford add them to Johnson. Slow it up spread the floor, iso and scramble for shots.
it's primitive style ball, trying to reinvent the wheel.

Horford's inability to create easy shot opportunities is so severe that he was tied on usage rate with the ever timid Jeff Teague (teague's steal % is terrific btw).

With Horford and Smith's lack of spacing AND Teague the only shooter will be Johnson. Leaving Drew to play 3 guard rotations and Marvin Williams.

Thus retreading 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

If we are going to make Joe a 2nd option AND succeed in the playoffs then we have to trade Al for a high efficiency volume shooter AND offensive rebounding AND defensive length.

Smith must also raise his efficiency. One way to do that is lose weight. His first step in transition/ posting up SFs was VERY weak in comparison to last year.
His blocks were down, and while he was the best at getting free throws and best SF rebound% in the NBA he can be so much more if he slims down to 2010 levels.

Smith's post game was very effective at times against Deng but his stamina led to fouls on the other end, holding his sides. Things he would not do in previous years, it looks like he just let himself go tbh.

His usage % is fine, its his defense stamina and speed that have suffered.

[brigadierjerry]

If we are going to make Joe a 2nd option AND succeed in the playoffs then we have to trade Al for a high efficiency volume shooter AND offensive rebounding AND defensive length.

Smith must also raise his efficiency. One way to do that is lose weight. His first step in transition/ posting up SFs was VERY weak in comparison to last year.
His blocks were down, and while he was the best at getting free throws and best SF rebound% in the NBA he can be so much more if he slims down to 2010 levels.

Smith's post game was very effective at times against Deng but his stamina led to fouls on the other end, holding his sides. Things he would not do in previous years, it looks like he just let himself go tbh


That is a good point about Smith. He had his moments but he seem to get tired and wasnt as ated athletic as in the past. Also needs to learn not to get so frustrated if he doesnt get a call. Has to play better man to man defense. The more I think about it the more I think I think Smith as a 3 but a very big if he can do two things lose weight and be able to hit an outside shot but within the offense and from about 20 feet out. Also needs to learn how to dribble with his other hand. He needs to pattern his game similar to a Lamar Odom type. Can you give me the stats to compare Smith and Lamar's Odom peak years from when he was on the Clippers till now?

Also how do you feel if Johnson was moved to the small forward spot what are your thoughts on that? The thing with Johnson there isnt any reason why he cannot be what Pierce was or still is to a lesser extent in scoring especially his early years when the Celtics went to the ECF against the Nets and even against Detroit those early 2000 years. They have very similar skill sets where neither one relies on their athleticism but are crafty in getting their shots off. To me why cant Drew say I want you JJ to average 25 points a game.

[td00]

Take your pick on Al or Josh....one has to go because we don't succeed with our current 3 captains.

What is their value? Everyone thinks Al is more valuable, but how considering who he guards on defense? How is he so valuable that he does not and can't guard other centers? Without a 6 man C rotation, Al is exposed. So we put Josh on the perimeter, treat him like Odom, which he's not, and make the best of it. It got us to exactly where we finished every season in recent memory.

Give Teague the ball, team him with Joe, who is still a very good 2, and let's formulate an inside/out scheme that takes advantage of our athletic forwards. We need Jamal or a very good replacement like a Rudy Gay at the 3. I just don't lke what I see from Josh on the perimeter...not do i like what Al thinks he is....a guy that has the offense runs through from the perimeter.

Did I mention Marvin? That's the obvious ommission here....I would rather give Anthony Randolph a chance in that slot.

Not that we're going to play anytime soon this season, but don't expect the players to just buckle and give up the power they have created. Even an Amare will go overseas and play 'some' to increase his market while these clueless owners (including the enigmatic group here) clowns around complaining of losses. Blah blah goes the commish.

[Ruhiel]

If we are going to make Joe a 2nd option AND succeed in the playoffs then we have to trade Al for a high efficiency volume shooter AND offensive rebounding AND defensive length.

Smith must also raise his efficiency. One way to do that is lose weight. His first step in transition/ posting up SFs was VERY weak in comparison to last year.
His blocks were down, and while he was the best at getting free throws and best SF rebound% in the NBA he can be so much more if he slims down to 2010 levels.

Smith's post game was very effective at times against Deng but his stamina led to fouls on the other end, holding his sides. Things he would not do in previous years, it looks like he just let himself go tbh


That is a good point about Smith. He had his moments but he seem to get tired and wasn't as ated athletic as in the past. Also needs to learn not to get so frustrated if he doesnt get a call. Has to play better man to man defense. The more I think about it the more I think I think Smith as a 3 but a very big if he can do two things lose weight and be able to hit an outside shot but within the offense and from about 20 feet out. Also needs to learn how to dribble with his other hand. He needs to pattern his game similar to a Lamar Odom type. Can you give me the stats to compare Smith and Lamar's Odom peak years from when he was on the Clippers till now?

20 feet out is too much imo. Oscar Robertson said it best. You want to get in a position where you're pivoting on the court, short corner, free throw line, baseline... these are the places you get fouls.
Smith has to be a homing missile homing in on drawing fouls at the rim or otherwise. You saw him doing it in the playoffs, just fatigue set in, and there was a particular call where he got stonewalled by 2 Bulls defenders and lost the ball only to regather... 4get if he missed or made shot but anyways those are "respect" calls and moves Kobe or Pierce would get called for... I like the mentality/ability but u have to advertise that to refs thruout season until u get those calls...

Lamar Odom's peak years are now in LAC his assists were up but also his Turnovers. His true shooting % was similar to Smith's...
Also was skinnier so he probably finished worse thru contact. Odom has really improved in recent years with his "power" play.

On LAC he handled too much offense and it reflects on his AST% and TOV%.

Lamar Odom, discounting his injured?
One year he had assisted 25% of teams buckets. He ran the offense. However he also had 17% turnover rate. Thats about 1 turnover every 5 plays.

Smith assists 17% and turns it over 14%. Smith will never be a PG mismatch like 6'11 Odom.

The small forward is not traditionally a teams high assist HUB. They are supposed to be the ones shooting not passing. Dr. J, Bird, Pierce, Rick Barry, and Lebron are exceptions.
Smith is more James Worthy, Shawn Marion.

Tayshaun Prince, Bruce Bowen, Ariza, and Marion had lower AST% than turnover %.
Artest was close but because of his lack of finishing ability he passed a lot too.

If Smith is busy running the lane then there is little opportunity for turnovers, if the assist is there then make it. But he should be more Marion/Worthy than Lebron (halfcourt) to succeed.

Also how do you feel if Johnson was moved to the small forward spot what are your thoughts on that? The thing with Johnson there isn't any reason why he cannot be what Pierce was or still is to a lesser extent in scoring especially his early years when the Celtics went to the ECF against the Nets and even against Detroit those early 2000 years. They have very similar skill sets where neither one relies on their athleticism but are crafty in getting their shots off. To me why cant Drew say I want you JJ to average 25 points a game.

-1 Johnson at SF no
-2 Paul Pierce (124 wins shared) just passed Dominique at 117.
Joe Johnson is at 54 wins.

Both played on bad teams early on... Paul Pierce is fat etc etc...

2nd highest Defensive Win Shared
Johnson 2.4 - 2009-2010 6'9 wingspan Josh Smith led his team with 5.1
Pierce 5.6- 2001-2002 7'0 wingspan Antoine Walker was on his team

TS% TRB% STL% BLK% USG% OFF DEF
Julius Erving .558 10.5 2.4 2.5 26.8 111 101
Paul Pierce .569 9.6 2.1 1.3 27.8 110 103
Dominique .536 10.4 1.8 1.0 30.3 110 108
George Gervin .572 7.3 1.6 1.3 30.7 112 108
Joe Johnson .527 6.6 1.4 0.5 23.6 107 110

Paul Pierce wingspan- 7'0, Vince Carter 7'0, Josh Smith 7'0, Carmelo 7'0,

Joe Johnson 6'9
Pierce can get away with not being "athletic", they get boards and get better shots. Joe Johnson cannot even get 4 free throws a game he's not .

Johnson does not do anything exceptional of what a front court player must do to win.

[reincarnatingDABULLS]

Would hawks fans be upset if your FO helped the Lakers acquire D Howard by trading either smith or horford for bynum or gasol and artest as a throw in, either way?



I think a legitate starting C, whether Bynum or Gasol, would compliment horford or smith excellently.
This would also help to get D Howard out of your conference, but it is at the expense of trading them smith or horford, along with Bynum or Gasol as well.

[brigadierjerry]

Ruhiel,

Can you compare Mitch Richmond peak years to Joe Johnsons?

[Ruhiel]

Ruhiel,

Can you compare Mitch Richmond peak years to Joe Johnsons?

Richmond's highest WS/48 was 29yo - 32yo.

Both bad defensive ratings. Nothing spectacular on steals. Ritchmond got more free throws, Johnson assists a higher rate of team's field goals not necessarily a redemptive quality.

Just my observation, at 6'5 Ritchmond is more of a cannonball. Johnson can't get to the free throw line, can't tuck the ball, duck his head into the chest of the defender and shoot over the defender...

Mitch had a better %s. Johnson nvr gets to the line... Otherwise very similar players.