Josh Smith's Peak pt.2: What Happened To Smith

[Ruhiel]

What Happened To Josh Smith’s Assist Rate?

In 2009-10, Josh Smith arguably had the best year of his career, posting some really good numbers. Even though his points per game, 15.7, wasn’t his highest mark, Smith was playing a great well rounded game, and that showed in his PER, which was a career high 20.96. Maybe the most impressive aspect of Smith’s game two years ago was the fact that he was more concerned with getting his teammates involved than past years. While Smith’s turnover rate remained stagnate, Smith saw his assist rate jump up from 14.47 in 2008-09 to 24.81 in 2009-10.

However, the 2009-10 season may have been Smith’s peak as his play dropped last year, seeing his PER go from 20.96 to 19.18. A lot of people want to point to the return of Smith’s three point shot as the reason for the dip in performance, but that isn’t really the case as Smith was hitting 33 percent of them. That’s not a great number, but that isn’t a terrible number either. In fact, Smith’s True Shooting Percentage (TS%) actually increased from 2009-10 to least year, going from 53.6 percent to 54.0 percent. The real problem in Smith’s game this past season was the drop in his assist rate, as it went from 24.81 two years ago to 18.52 last year.

So what happened with Smith and his assist rate? He stopped having success passing out if isolation situations. As a passer, Smith was at his best two years ago, working out of isolation situations where his passes would result in his teammates posting a points per possession (PPP) of 1.50 while shooting 61.1 percent and an eFG% of 76.4 percent. One of the reasons why Smith was so successful passing out of isolation situations is that the Hawks would usually run sets involving cuts off of Smith as he worked with the basketball:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fskwT3rG8vU&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Whenever Smith was isolated with the basketball, the Hawks would be cutting off of him. Whether it be set plays or just something his teammates did (both happened in the Hawks’ offense), the team seemed really concerned with providing him with options as his tried to isolate his man. Almost as if they knew if they didn’t Smith might get out of control and force something. The result was 31.6 percent of Smith’s assists out of isolation going to a cutter.

Last season, the cutting off of Smith stopped, and so did the success rate passing out of isolation. Last year, Smith’s teammates posted a PPP of just 0.75 when Smith passed it to them out of isolation situations. Maybe the biggest factor is that he wasn’t hitting cutters anymore, as just 25 percent of his assists went to cutters. The reason why Smith wasn’t hitting cutters is that the cutters weren’t there anymore:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lF3bYGe-vzs&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Whenever Smith isolated last year, the movement off of the basketball from two years ago seemed to disappear. Nobody was cutting and the four other Hawks were standing around watching Smith try to create something and the result was more turnovers. Two years ago, Smith turned the ball over just 7.8 percent of the time when in isolation. This was because when Smith started to put himself in a tough position by overdribbling, a teammate would cut and provide him with a safety valve. With the Hawks’ seemingly standing around more, when Smith would start to get himself in trouble, those safety valve’s weren’t there and he turned the ball over.

Josh Smith is one of the most dynamic players in the NBA because he can do a number of things. However, the Hawks need to understand that they need to make things easier for him on the offensive end by providing him with passing options, especially when he is isolating his man. It’s interesting, Larry Drew’s offense promised much more off ball movement than Mike Woodson, and for the most part his delivered on that promise, but for some reason when Josh Smith had the ball, that movement stopped.

http://nbaplaybook.com/what-happened-to ... sist-rate/

[Ruhiel]

Disclaimer: To me This has nothing to do with our problems on defense. In my opinion Smith should not handle assists and stay inside and (any center+Smith+Horford) is counterproductive because it's limited by Smith being outside.

Smith's role in halfcourt should be:
A) [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgNGfEmiibM[/youtube]
B) [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cr02zmlQ3h4[/youtube]
C) [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xIpEPF1mAA[/youtube]

Teague and Johnson handle the ball and with Smith vs. guys his size his speed advantage is negated so he has to pick his spots and be fed like in A) B) C).

Transition:
The rest of Smith's possessions come off of him clogging the passing wings and transition off of steals or bad shots from team defense.
A) [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqyF002WQXc[/youtube]
B) [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COwvwhw930I[/youtube]

But in transition Teague and Johnson should be handling the ball and passing to Smith. Not the other way around.
C) [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXivt0gMyN4[/youtube]
D) [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mmq1XyfJjjU[/youtube]
E) [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPohQA0it1I[/youtube]
F) [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igvf4F_oFj4[/youtube]
Joe Johnson + Smith alley oops are nice. But the rim run D) where he curls & gets fouled is especially nice and Smith can do that a lot more if he is an inside SF with outside PF.

[MaceCase]

Pay attention to where Smith initiates the offense in 09-10 and the difference from 10-11. in 09-10 because he didn't rely on the three ball at all he initiated offense from within the perimeter allowing him to better drive into the teeth of the defense when facing up from the high post and the ability to find cutters when working out from the low post. In 10-11 he's initiating offense from behind the 3 line where, because his man sags, his passing angles can be anticipated and the defense can react better to his drives.

09-10 is not only a key year because he eliminated the 3ball but a key year because he reduced the amount of jumpers he took, period. Citing his TS% in 10-11 is a bit fallacious also because it not only coincided with him hitting a career high in 3s but also a career high in FT% but unfortunately, due to his increased perimeter as opposed to inside play, his FT rate plummeted not allowing him to take advantage of his newfound FT stroke.

[Geaux_Hawks]

He really just needs to get back down to 230 and take less jumpers. Drew needs to really work with him and make him into a facilitator. He could be a point-forward version of Larry Nance if he goes back to how he played in 09-10.

Drew needs to run plays that will set Smith up in the high post and either let him drive, have teammates run cuts to the basket, or back his man down. He is quicker than 4's and stronger than 3's, with the ability to make great passes. He can draw fouls easily & defenders easily if used correctly. Drew needs to run more offense through him.

He can take a jumper or 2 to keep the defense honest though. He has improved his shot, therefore I wouldn't cringe if he ever shot a jumper, but just don't over do it.

[Jodi]

Just trade Josh Smith to the Pistons for Rip Hamilton, Austin Daye and a 1st round draft pick and I'll be happy...

[evildallas]

Just trade Josh Smith to the Pistons for Rip Hamilton, Austin Daye and a 1st round draft pick and I'll be happy...

That would suck.

A few things on Josh's assist rate. He shot better from outside early on which caused him to fall in the love with perimeter shot (doesn't take much) and thus took him out of a spot where he created openings for others by drawing defensive attention. He had been drawing defenses down low and kicking out for open jumpers more frequently in previous years. He still would do it occasionally, but that leads me to point number 2 and that was that Joe, Jamal, and Marvin's outside shooting percentages were down last year. Those two factors reduce an assist rate.

[#1 pick]

Pay attention to where Smith initiates the offense in 09-10 and the difference from 10-11. in 09-10 because he didn't rely on the three ball at all he initiated offense from within the perimeter allowing him to better drive into the teeth of the defense when facing up from the high post and the ability to find cutters when working out from the low post. In 10-11 he's initiating offense from behind the 3 line where, because his man sags, his passing angles can be anticipated and the defense can react better to his drives.

09-10 is not only a key year because he eliminated the 3ball but a key year because he reduced the amount of jumpers he took, period. Citing his TS% in 10-11 is a bit fallacious also because it not only coincided with him hitting a career high in 3s but also a career high in FT% but unfortunately, due to his increased perimeter as opposed to inside play, his FT rate plummeted not allowing him to take advantage of his newfound FT stroke.

This. Smith needs to leave the 3pt line alone at all cost. It hurts his game too much.