Wondering - are we going about this backwards?

parson · Post #1 » by **parson** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:34 pm

Just playing with a thought: what if we traded Josh Smith to Orlando instead of Al Horford? Now, let me admit that I prefer Horford anyway, but I don't think prejudice is driving this idea. Rather, I think basketball reasons are leading me to this.

I don't think Smith and Dwight Howard can win big together. Smith needs to play inside (on offense AND on defense), where DH will be stationed (both ways). And if Smith goes outside to get out of DH's way, well.... that's even worse.

Dwight Howard needs guys who can shoot from the perimeter and some who can shoot midrange jumpers. For the latter, Al Horford is 2nd only to Dirk.

Also - and this gets personal - Josh Smith needs to be the man. In ORL, he'd sell tickets while they rebuilt. If we traded him to ORL, we could add 3-4 first round picks (HOU's and 2-3 of ours) and Devin Harris ($8.5 million expiring) in order to also take back Richardson. They would clear salary, tank into the lottery and rebuild quickly with a massive influx of talent, 1-2 of whom would be their high lottery picks ... and Josh Smith as their leader and max salary. He'd love it; the fans would love him (he mostly hurts with dumb shots in the playoffs), and the Magic would be a very talented and deep team in 2-3 years. Plus, they'd have only $10 million in salary after next year (of course, they'd have to add Smith's new contract and pay their 1st rounders). They would easily be in the hunt for 2 max FAs at that time.

This "Dwight Howard wants to play with his buddy" thing can only be used so far. Basketball reasons need to come into play at some point. For that matter, however, when DH (early last year) listed friends he'd want to play with, I don't believe Smith's name was mentioned, but Anthony Morrow's was.

Finally, we could gamble on this deal NOW. We wouldn't have to have promises from DH that he'd re-sign. If he left, it'd be the same as losing Smith. We would have lost 4 firsts for one year of high ticket sales and one shot at a championship. We'd still be in the market for 2 max FAs.

dtown8 · Post #2 » by **dtown8** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 5:56 pm

Keep Josh and Horford....... Zaza and two draft picks for Dwight and Jason Richardson

No other team can make a better offer for Dwight without a commitment.

parson · Post #3 » by **parson** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 5:58 pm

dtown8 wrote:Keep Josh and Horford....... Zaza and two draft picks for Dwight and Jason Richardson

No other team can make a better offer for Dwight without a commitment.

Did you try that over at the ORL board? Seems to me, HOU could better that.

dtown8 · Post #4 » by **dtown8** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:01 pm

parson wrote:
dtown8 wrote:Keep Josh and Horford....... Zaza and two draft picks for Dwight and Jason Richardson

No other team can make a better offer for Dwight without a commitment.

Did you try that over at the ORL board? Seems to me, HOU could better that.

apparently the Houston deal is not going to happen ....

"Magic Return To Negotiating Table With Nets On Howard Trade"

i think their is a problem with getting a commitment from Bynum to resign in Houston.

theatlfan · Post #5 » by **theatlfan** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:11 pm

Short answer: I agree with you whole-heartedly, but...

Long answer:
Before starting, I would say that I see Howard and Smoove as very much redundant. Both do many of the same things on the floor, but Howard does it in a 7' body and in a position where it's acceptable to simply leave on the low block all game. IMO, a Horford/Howard front court combo would be my ideal, and I acknowledge that my inclusion of Smoove as an SF is really my personal bias (I do like Smoove - he was the only reason I watched when we were down) than anything having to do a basketball decision. If we had Horford and Howard together, then I'd think that would challenge LAL's current duo of Gasol/Bynum for the best front court duo in the NBA.

But on to the issue of whether we should deal Smoove over Horford in an attempt to land Howard. 1st, The "Dwight Howard wants to play with his buddy" thing is a very big issue. If we want to sign Howard long term (and I see no reason to make a deal for him without actually wanting that), then we'd want to ensure that he's as comfortable as possible here. If it means keeping his buddy here, then that's what it means. Sure, it's babying and we probably shouldn't need to do that, but the best values for contract in the NBA are rookie deals and superstars. We could count at least 1/2 of Smoove's new deal as part of Howard's and still feel we're ahead.

2nd, ORL has a say. I'd think Horford and his longer term deal would be more valuable to ORL than Smoove's expiring one. Even if ORL would prefer the expiring, they wouldn't give full value for the deal and a 3rd team would need to be found who would give full (or close enough to) value for Smoove for the deal to work.

parson · Post #6 » by **parson** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:11 pm

dtown8 wrote:
parson wrote:
dtown8 wrote:Keep Josh and Horford....... Zaza and two draft picks for Dwight and Jason Richardson

No other team can make a better offer for Dwight without a commitment.

Did you try that over at the ORL board? Seems to me, HOU could better that.

apparently the Houston deal is not going to happen ....

"Magic Return To Negotiating Table With Nets On Howard Trade"

i think their is a problem with getting a commitment from Bynum to resign in Houston.

Then, yeah, I'd agree with you.

But it seems to me that the salaries don't work in your deal. According to Micheal Cunningham, we're only $1.5 million under the cap. Your deal has us taking in Howard's $19,536,360 and Richardson's $5,799,625 (total: $25,335,985) and sending out Zaza's $5,248,750. That's a difference of $20,087,235. After next season, we should be that far under the cap ... but not now.

dtown8 · Post #7 » by **dtown8** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:18 pm

parson wrote:
dtown8 wrote:
parson wrote:Did you try that over at the ORL board? Seems to me, HOU could better that.

apparently the Houston deal is not going to happen ....

"Magic Return To Negotiating Table With Nets On Howard Trade"

i think their is a problem with getting a commitment from Bynum to resign in Houston.

Then, yeah, I'd agree with you.

But it seems to me that the salaries don't work in your deal. According to Micheal Cunningham, we're only $1.5 million under the cap. Your deal has us taking in Howard's $19,536,360 and Richardson's $5,799,625 (total: $25,335,985) and sending out Zaza's $5,248,750. That's a difference of $20,087,235. After next season, we should be that far under the cap ... but not now.

you can always add Harris and Petro's contract to the deal to make it work

parson · Post #8 » by **parson** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:18 pm

theatlfan wrote:Short answer: I agree with you whole-heartedly, but... But on to the issue of whether we should deal Smoove over Horford in an attempt to land Howard. 1st, The "Dwight Howard wants to play with his buddy" thing is a very big issue. If we want to sign Howard long term (and I see no reason to make a deal for him without actually wanting that), then we'd want to ensure that he's as comfortable as possible here. If it means keeping his buddy here, then that's what it means. Sure, it's babying and we probably shouldn't need to do that, but the best values for contract in the NBA are rookie deals and superstars. We could count at least 1/2 of Smoove's new deal as part of Howard's and still feel we're ahead.

In all the time that Howard has been demanding the Nets, has Josh Smith been a part of the deal?

theatlfan wrote:2nd, ORL has a say. I'd think Horford and his longer term deal would be more valuable to ORL than Smoove's expiring one. Even if ORL would prefer the expiring, they wouldn't give full value for the deal and a 3rd team would need to be found who would give full (or close enough to) value for Smoove for the deal to work.

I posted this idea over on their board. So far, it's been encouraging.

parson · Post #9 » by **parson** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:21 pm

dtown8 wrote:you can always add Harris and Petro's contract to the deal to make it work

Harris at $8.5 million and Petro at $3.5 equal up to $12 million. You're still about $8 million shy.

parson · Post #10 » by **parson** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:23 pm

I told y'all I was playing around with an idea. Now, I've just had a bad thought: what would be the odds of Howard going back to ORL to join Smith after next year?

Oh well.

dtown8 · Post #11 » by **dtown8** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:30 pm

parson wrote:
dtown8 wrote:you can always add Harris and Petro's contract to the deal to make it work

Harris at $8.5 million and Petro at $3.5 equal up to $12 million. You're still about $8 million shy.

the trade works, you forgot that after the Joe trade, it put the Hawks $10 million under the cap. with the cap, Harris, Petro, and Zaza (not to mention Stevenson and the buy out of Farmar), that equals $30 million. the Hawks can easily take on Dwight and JRich's contract.

Rip2137 · Post #12 » by **Rip2137** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:13 pm

You know they traded Joe for other players right?

theatlfan · Post #13 » by **theatlfan** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:59 pm

parson wrote:In all the time that Howard has been demanding the Nets, has Josh Smith been a part of the deal?

Different times though. In the past, Smoove hasn't been a big fan of our Hawks and had one foot out the door. Why would Howard say he wants to go somewhere to play with someone that already had one foot out the door?

parson wrote:I posted this idea over on their board. So far, it's been encouraging.

Well, that would be fantastic. But as with the problem @ the T&T board, the decision of a fan doesn't necessarily mesh with the decision of a GM. The ORL GM would be in the same position as the NJN GM after dealing for Wallace last season - he has to overpay Smoove to ensure he'll stay. You can't trade Howard for a player then lose the player in FA the next season - it's the same issue with the Bynum deal.

As I said in my expanded quote, it would be my preference to pair Horford to Howard long term as opposed to pairing him with Smoove, but is it realistic with the persons involved? That I don't know. Every time I listen to/read what Howard says is more or less listening to someone who sees greener pastures than someone who really knows what he wants. I think that Howard really just wants to play in Brooklyn (or a bigger market) because of his endorsement contract with Adidas. The players he lists are more of an overture to acquire those players so that it's a championship team when he gets there. Are we to consider ourselves one of those bigger markets? I have no idea - I haven't seen his contract with Adidas...

Skyhawk1 · Post #14 » by **Skyhawk1** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 11:17 pm

Why would D. Howard commit to the Hawks if we traded for him? Think about that, we'd be losing 2 of our best players (Horford and Teague), then you have a team that's probably as bad as this Magic team that D. Howard plays right now. The only win-win situation, I mean for the Hawks and Howard, is if he signs here as a free agent next season. By doing that, he'd be giving up lots of money. Possible but unrealistic. Now, we can always pray and hope that D. Ferry pulls another miracle. I mean, if he could convince the Nets to trade for JJ, this guy can do pretty much anything.

Rip2137 · Post #15 » by **Rip2137** » Thu Jul 12, 2012 6:58 pm

Um...trading Horford and teague wouldn't have us as bad as a team that has to start Turk and Chris Duhon got minutes. Teague leaves, we have Lou Williams or Devin Harris to fill that spot. Horford gone...well...he is in that spot.

I wouldn't do the trade myself, as I think teague+Horford will be more valubale that Dwight+nobody in the future, plus our front line of Smith and Dwight would shoot a combined 50% from the freethrow line, and our offense would be condenced because if you were playing D, wouldn't you just leave Smith open from 16 feet instead of leaving any shooter or singling Dwight?

But lets not get crazy. Outside of 2 players, the Magic are pretty bad.