Am I right in understanding we cannot trade Smith ...

[parson]

... if we sign Dwight Howard and Chris Paul? That we'll have renounce him to sign them, taking away the SNT option?

So, we're only SNTing him if we strike out in free agency. Probably the same with Teague.

Or am I missing something?

[GrimeyKidd]

Why cant we just keep teague and horford and get jefferson without getting into all the d howard and paul drama.

[theatlfan]

All depends on the sequence of events and other factors, but in all probability, you are correct - we wouldn't be able to SNT Smith or Teague if we landed both CP3 and Howard. The dependency is on cap room, we can SNT a renounced FA, but we'd need the cap room to sign the player before the trade.

Lining up the sequence of events wouldn't be as hard as you'd think though. There's a 2 week moratorium on player transactions at the beginning of the league year, so if we get CP3 and Howard to agree to come within that moratorium, then we could line up the transaction if they are agreed to within the moratorium as well. The problem would be that since we couldn't take on any salary, there really wouldn't be any incentive for the other team to play ball with us unless the other moving parts made sense to all parties. I've always eyed putting together a Teague SNT + L Williams + a future 1st deal on the table to a team that would be interested in acquiring Teague to free up extra $$ to give to Howard and CP3. Now that the salary cap is expected to be around $58M though, I'm not so sure how much sense that'd make for us since we still wouldn't be able to offer both their max anyway.

Why cant we just keep teague and horford and get jefferson without getting into all the d howard and paul drama.

Don't really understand landing Big Al. Not saying that he's a bad player or anything, but does he help us win a title? Seems like a move that sticks us back into mediocrity - good enough to ensure that we wouldn't have a great pick in the draft; not good enough that we're a legit title contender. If the move was paired with a few others, then maybe, but in isolation, it doesn't make much sense to me.

[jagstang76]

One positive perhaps is it always takes a while for the market to decide on josh, and that might buy us time to sort out how we can make it work. I'm guessing cuz I don't know cap stuff as well, but my theory is we could sign CP3 and then DH and then fill out the roster with a SnT with Josh. Maybe the cap holds hamper that, but it sounds good.

[theatlfan]

One positive perhaps is it always takes a while for the market to decide on josh, and that might buy us time to sort out how we can make it work. I'm guessing cuz I don't know cap stuff as well, but my theory is we could sign CP3 and then DH and then fill out the roster with a SnT with Josh. Maybe the cap holds hamper that, but it sounds good.

Yeah, this is pretty much what we can't do in an SNT for Smith. In the scenario where Paul and Howard did agree to join us, then we couldn't take on any $$ in a Smith SNT. Maybe a minimum guy since we'd have the cap hold anyway, but actually getting players you'd want is out of the question. BCS would be the other team taking on a contract of ours (L Williams? Jenkins?) along with Smith for a large TPE that we would then use to give more $$ to CP3 and Howard.

One thing to note is that the TPE is something I don't have a great grasp now. Under the old CBA, we'd have to renounce the TPE to use cap room which we would need to sign Howard and Paul for this scenario. I believe that would still be the case under the current CBA, but I'm not 100% on that.

[jagstang76]

I wasn't sure, so thanks for clarifying.

So, we essentially will need to know for sure if we want josh around and then determine if its even possible to get both Howard and Paul. If so, we renounce josh. If not, we can keep josh or work out a SnT for him.

[Jamaaliver]

^At this point, Josh and his agent will be integral in orchestrating a sign and trade.

There are teams that can sign Josh outright.

If Josh chooses a team that needs (or wants) a sign and trade, they will probably be the ones to initiate talks for the SnT. Adjusting their contract demands accordingly as they proceed.

[theatlfan]

I wasn't sure, so thanks for clarifying.

So, we essentially will need to know for sure if we want josh around and then determine if its even possible to get both Howard and Paul. If so, we renounce josh. If not, we can keep josh or work out a SnT for him.

Jamaaliver summed up our prospects and the action needed to actually SNT Josh quite well, but I figured I'd add some scenarios to it to put some figures next to the words. These consider that our Option #1 (signing both Paul and Howard) doesn't happen. If we only land one of those two, then I'd guess that we'd still be investigating SNT scenarios for Josh.

If HOU doesn't land Howard then rumor is that Smoove is their #2 target. Smoove spends time in HOU in the off-season and I'd guess in this scenario he would end up there in all likelihood. They have the cap room to sign him outright though, so the only scenario where they'd be willing to deal would be if they had another FA on the line who they'd want to open some cap room for as well. They would then play the two clubs (us and whoever the other FA is coming from) to get the deal that satisfies them the best. Most likely the deal would start with Lin who doesn't look like a fit next to Harden, and I'd imagine that they would like to shed both Royce White (definition of head case) and T-Robinson (don't get too excited here, he is a bust in all likelihood). The most available assets they have would be Terrance Jones, Motiejunas, and future pick(s). Whichever team would take the package that HOU would prefer to part with would get the SNT.

Assuming that Smith doesn't end up in HOU (they sign Howard or the interest level isn't what is currently rumored), then the next team that I'd have as a favorite would be DET. Dumars has been a rumored Smoove fan in the past and with their 1st next year already dealt to clear some cap for this offseason, there seems to be some desperation to make a splash in this offseason. Unfortunately, DET is another team with the cap room to sign Smith outright and would only be interested if they have another FA in line and they could get us bidding against the other team in an effort to shed a contract - in this case, Stuckey or Villanueva (they could amnesty the other if it became an issue). The interesting thing here is that the most available asset on DET could be Monroe due to his uncertain fit next to Drummond. He wouldn't come cheap though - I'd assume that the bidding would start at taking one of the contracts above and 2 future 1sts on top of the SNT player and go from there. Even then, they might prefer present production over future assets which puts us at a pretty large disadvantage in these negotiations.

Once these two teams go off the board, we actually could be in a pretty good situation for an SNT though. The teams with rumored interest (BOS, MIL, PHI) wouldn't have the cap room to sign Smoove without renouncing a player that I'd guess they'd prefer to keep, so they'd have to go through us if they want him. One thing to remember about this set though: these were the same guys we were dealing with at the deadline and we couldn't get anything done. We do have the advantage of the other team not having to worry about Smoove bolting in a few months though.

[Years80HAWKS]

But there is one basic point you are missing, I believe: Howard would come here to play with his pal Josh, not to see him leaving...

[jagstang76]

But there is one basic point you are missing, I believe: Howard would come here to play with his pal Josh, not to see him leaving...

I can't see many options where Josh stays. If he does help us bring over Howard, we would have to likely trade Horford to make it work if we are signing Paul too. And then he's not going to get the money he's hoping for. I guess that could be worked out, I just don't like a team with two knuckleheads who might feed negatively off each other.

[theatlfan]

But there is one basic point you are missing, I believe: Howard would come here to play with his pal Josh, not to see him leaving...

I've always wondered about this. I've seen these forever, but I've always wondered if this rumor is more connecting the dots than anything substantive. Think on it: we've heard of Dwight saying he would like to play with Paul, Asik, even Anthony Morrow, but I've never seen anything that would be a direct connection with Smith. Is there something I'm missing or has this just been parroted so much that it's become "common knowledge"?

[Jamaaliver]

But there is one basic point you are missing, I believe: Howard would come here to play with his pal Josh, not to see him leaving...

I've never heard/read/seen anything to make me believe Dwight's decision-making is at all based on what Josh does.

[tcorbin]

They can still trade Josh. They just need to trade Josh first, and then go after Howard and Paul.

Hawks won't be able to do a Josh trade on draft day, so the Hawks won't be able to make the pick, just hope the other team picks a guy that the Hawks like, and then make a trade during free agency. for instance, if Houston offers Josh $52 million for 4 years, Detroit could make an SnT offer of $65 million for 5 years and send the Hawks their newly drafted player or future pick. Sames goes for Milwaukee

[Jamaaliver]

Not sure if that works, tcorbin with the moratorium (waiting period) on trades/free agent signings. The numbers all become a reality on the same day.