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As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction

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Re: As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction 

Post#81 » by Jamaaliver » Fri Sep 20, 2013 4:21 pm

Game 4 Recap:

After an embarrassing performance two nights earlier, the Hawks changed up their lineup. They had been dominated on the boards in the two previous games, so they went back to a bigger lineup that worked so well against Dwight Howard and Orlando in the opening round.

Seven-footer Jason Collins started at center between Al Horford and Smith, putting Marvin Williams in a reserve role. Collins had a couple of early dunks, but he wound up playing less than 12 minutes.


http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=310508001

Jeff Schultz after Game 4:

The effort on the boards were better, thanks in part to Drew’s pregame decision to “go big” with his lineup and start Jason Collins at center.

http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2011/05/08/hawks-and-smith-bounce-back-in-a-major-way/
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Re: As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction 

Post#82 » by Jamaaliver » Fri Sep 20, 2013 4:26 pm

It's been so long, I had completely forgotten that our normal Lineup with Horford at Center got dominated on the boards.

Horford had to guard Boozer because, at 280 lbs, he was too strong for Smoove. Smoove had to guard Noah. We got manhandled in the paint by the combo of Boozer, Noah, Gibson and Omer Asik!

Drew had to go BACK to the Big lineup midway through the Chicago series which levelled out the rebounding advantage Chicago held from 10+ per game in the first 3 games.
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Re: As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction 

Post#83 » by Jamaaliver » Fri Sep 20, 2013 4:54 pm

Drew: "There are guys in this league that require special attention in keeping off the glass. Noah’s activity, to me he could be considered one of those guys. Sometimes it means Twin boxed him out and he’s not coming up with the ball. His first assignment is to get him boxed off and allow someone else to come up with it.”

L.D. on another benefit of the Twin lineup: "Asking Josh to defend Noah at times, he’s much taller and much longer. It’s a tough assignment for him. Having him go against guy like Boozer who is real physical is also tough. Another physical body has been good for us. It frees up Al and Josh up to a certain extent.”


http://blogs.ajc.com/hawks/2011/05/09/atlanta-hawks-notes-quotes-and-links-2/

Seriously. We've been in need of a larger frontcourt, a legit Center, for years now.

More AJC analysis after switching AL to PF in the Bulls playoff series:

The “big” lineup paid dividends but not the one with Twin. He lasted just 12 minutes, didn’t get a rebound and had problems chasing Boozer in the crossmatch but Zaza had nine rebounds in 25 minutes.
“Give them credit,” Boozer said. “Their bigs were very active.”


If we only had a competent 7 footer to put NEXT to Horford.
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Re: As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction 

Post#84 » by Yungsta404 » Fri Sep 20, 2013 4:55 pm

Last season I remember when we played horford at center we got destroyed on the boards even by average frontcourt players.

The wizards frontcourt combo of okafur and nene destroyed us.
Anderson varajao single handedly killed us on the boards.
Asik killed us.
taj gibson killed us when noah and boozer were out.
etc...

Horford at center just makes us too soft of a team on the interior.
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Re: As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction 

Post#85 » by Jamaaliver » Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:03 pm

Yungsta404 wrote:Horford at center just makes us too soft of a team on the interior.


Indeed brother. Though AL has consistently been our best rebounder since the day he was drafted, our teams have consistently been one of the worse rebounding teams in the league for the last 6 years.

Big teams dominate us in the paint and on the boards, regularly.
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Re: As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction 

Post#86 » by MaceCase » Fri Sep 20, 2013 8:16 pm

parson wrote:That's you, demanding someone else "man up" but ....

Sorry but you cannot be so dense as to not know how a bad back and injured hamstring can hold you down. Horford was visibly reduced by the injuries. Folks were posting what a coward they thought he was - for not mixing it up as physically as he had been doing. By the way, your argument about the "major surgery on a torn major muscle group" - that's called a strawman argument. How he gritted it out from one injury has very little to do with other injuries.

Face it, you picked an example to "prove" something about Horford and you screwed up. That's what can happen when you've got your eyes locked on your statistics book and not on the actual player - you end up letting the numbers tell you what to think, instead of your own good brain, eyes and experience. I remind you of a quote from Benjamin Disraeli that Samuel Clemens made famous, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

But I will forgive you; I reckon "you just don't know no better."

What you have is your own opinion of Horford's physical state with nothing to back it up. What you have is pure cowardice and conjecture on your part because in your mind, your theory on Al being better at PF is absolutely sound no matter the amount of facts that are thrown in your face. When given Azu's original assesment, no, clearly something is wrong here with this metric, we should have added 50 wins or so with Al at PF. When given the head 2 head from B-R, well he could have been guarding Steph Curry all game for all we know. When given the position stats from 82games specifically taken from his performances specifically at PF, yea well jkgjgjka klgaka, don't trust them. When given his record in games he started at PF, yea well he didn't play at PF the whole game. When given his play by play production from PF, yea well you are cherry picking. When given his whole series in 2011, yea well he was injured.

This is called running. You want me to man up yet you are turning tail at every chance and throwing pot shots from the shadows. Now Al's injuries months before that particular playoffs were more restrictive than others that he has experienced before. Now you are a member of the Hawks medical staff with full knowledge of the severity of those injuries. Now never mind that he didn't really miss any games due to them, never mind that he didn't experience a statistical drop off as bad, if at all, when these so called injuries originally occurred or in the weeks or months thereafter as he did in the playoffs. These injuries all seemed to have coalesced and hit home months later right around the start of playoffs. And I'm just supposed to believe all of that no matter how far in the way it flies in the face of logic and normal intelligence......because you say so. Because clearly, faith in established fact should never outweigh one's faith in their own eyes or their opinions.
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Re: As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction 

Post#87 » by parson » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:26 am

MaceCase wrote:What you have is your own opinion of Horford's physical state with nothing to back it up.

Pot; kettle. What we both have are simply arguments to support our positions. Somehow, you get insulted if anyone dares disagree with you.
MaceCase wrote:What you have is pure cowardice and conjecture on your part because in your mind, your theory on Al being better at PF is absolutely sound no matter the amount of facts that are thrown in your face.

I've dealt and am dealing with the facts. Your problem is, you see ONE set of facts and draw conclusions. I've shown you others.
MaceCase wrote: When given Azu's original assesment, no, clearly something is wrong here with this metric, we should have added 50 wins or so with Al at PF.

I never said that. You just made that up.
MaceCase wrote: When given the head 2 head from B-R, well he could have been guarding Steph Curry all game for all we know.

Why can't you see that you are wrong with your assumption that Basketball Reference is really showing games where - in this specific case - Horford was matched up directly against Kevin Garnett? It does not. It simply shows where the 2 appeared in the same games. If you don't believe me, go to the website, type in Horford's name and Stephen Curry's name. It will give you 5 games where they were "head-to-head." Only we know they never were matched up but only appeared in the same 5 games. THEN I PROVED THAT OTHERS (mainly Kendrick Perkins) WERE ACTUALLY HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH HORFORD. I destroyed that claim - one you still insist on making. You're wrong about that claim. Throw all the insults you want at me but it doesn't change that fact.
MaceCase wrote:When given the position stats from 82games specifically taken from his performances specifically at PF, yea well jkgjgjka klgaka, don't trust them.

I would like to see Horford play with a good Center and I do believe the fact he hasn't had one up to now taints those statistics.
MaceCase wrote:When given his record in games he started at PF, yea well he didn't play at PF the whole game.

I showed that he played the majority of minutes at Center. Who cares if, for example, Petro starts if he only plays 19 minutes at Center, then Horford plays the majority there? Especially when West (in your example) played all his minutes at PF?
MaceCase wrote: When given his play by play production from PF, yea well you are cherry picking.

You picked 2 games out of 6 in a series where he, on the whole outplayed West. ONLY those 2 games supplied you with an argument.
MaceCase wrote:When given his whole series in 2011, yea well he was injured.

That was a very important argument for you and I showed that Horford had a serious back and hamstring injury at the time. You didn't remember Horford's injuries and you're angry I shot down the argument. You still cannot say, "My bad," in that case. You made a conclusion based on a few statistics and screwed up by not remembering 2 very large extenuating circumstances.
MaceCase wrote:This is called running. You want me to man up yet you are turning tail at every chance and throwing pot shots from the shadows.

Earlier, when you showed me I was reading the game logs backwards, I admitted it. You are constitutionally incapable of doing the same. I disproved your arguments (really, the B-R point is embarrassingly dumb) and all you can do is throw angry insults.
MaceCase wrote:Now Al's injuries months before that particular playoffs were more restrictive than others that he has experienced before.

That is still a strawman argument, made all the more foolish by your complaint that I am calling one set "more restrictive" than his pectoral injury, even though you made the same claim in reverse. If you think I'm dumb for doing it, why are you doing it, too? However, I supported my claim by reminding you that this board had members noticing Horford's lowered level of play and criticizing him for it.
MaceCase wrote:Now you are a member of the Hawks medical staff with full knowledge of the severity of those injuries.
Jealous?
MaceCase wrote:Now never mind that he didn't really miss any games due to them, never mind that he didn't experience a statistical drop off as bad, if at all, when these so called injuries originally occurred or in the weeks or months thereafter as he did in the playoffs.

Qualify much? So he gutted it out. You say that's proof he wasn't hurt? Really? And he did play softer - your lawyer-like qualifying of his performance shows you can't prove your statements - or you would have.
MaceCase wrote: These injuries all seemed to have coalesced and hit home months later right around the start of playoffs.

Silly.
MaceCase wrote:And I'm just supposed to believe all of that no matter how far in the way it flies in the face of logic and normal intelligence......because you say so.

You're supposed to debate respectfully, without angry insults at anyone who dares disagree with you. And I'm allowed to have my opinion, especially when your conclusions are so easily disproved.
MaceCase wrote:Because clearly, faith in established fact should never outweigh one's faith in their own eyes or their opinions.

Here we have the crux of your problem - the root of your faulty logic: you pick one narrow set of facts and "establish" them as absolute truth. I picked others and disagreed with you.
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Re: As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction 

Post#88 » by MaceCase » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:35 am

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/splits/_/ ... al-horford

Man, that back, that hamstring. They really tanked his whole February through April. Al must be an elephant, it just took until the Orlando series (despite getting an easier assignment) for his brain to register the injuries.

But oh, there goes my over reliance on stats again.
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Re: As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction 

Post#89 » by parson » Sat Sep 21, 2013 6:00 am

^ You're too easy when you get mad. Check out (on that same site) the month of April. He had his worst month of the season, especially shooting 76 percentage points worse than his season average. He also had his worst scoring and rebounding averages that month. He shot worse and scored less in the CHI series, culminating with his terrible ORL series, where he shot 154 percentage points worse than his season average. His performance went down each month of the regular season: rebounding went down to 9.9 in Feb, then 8.4 in March and 7.3 in April. Scoring went down each month. Shooting percentage went down each month. Any idea why?

And what about your Basketball Reference's "head-to-head" claim? See where you went wrong yet?
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Re: As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction 

Post#90 » by MaceCase » Sat Sep 21, 2013 7:39 am

parson wrote:Pot; kettle. What we both have are simply arguments to support our positions. Somehow, you get insulted if anyone dares disagree with you.

But what exactly is supporting your arguments? Nothing and no matter how many times you people say that I feel insulted, just remember that it's you that is complaining.

I've dealt and am dealing with the facts. Your problem is, you see ONE set of facts and draw conclusions. I've shown you others.

No, I seem to be drawing from a wide reaching resource of facts while you dance away from each with hypotheticals, suppositions and perfectly placed explanations as to why they aren't relevant to you.

I never said that. You just made that up.

Oh forgive me, this is literal day and people are only allowed to spout "concrete" opinions but not hyperbole.

Here are the actual replies:
parson wrote:^ Thanks.

This is assuming Horford doesn't improve while playing PF fulltime, right?


parson wrote:^ Except for the facts that he's, physically, really a PF, he's never played beside a true (and good) Center and he keeps getting beat up when he logs large minutes at Center.


This sure reads like someone who isn't trying to put down what the metrics told him.

Why can't you see that you are wrong with your assumption that Basketball Reference is really showing games where - in this specific case - Horford was matched up directly against Kevin Garnett? It does not. It simply shows where the 2 appeared in the same games. If you don't believe me, go to the website, type in Horford's name and Stephen Curry's name. It will give you 5 games where they were "head-to-head." Only we know they never were matched up but only appeared in the same 5 games. THEN I PROVED THAT OTHERS (mainly Kendrick Perkins) WERE ACTUALLY HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH HORFORD. I destroyed that claim - one you still insist on making. You're wrong about that claim. Throw all the insults you want at me but it doesn't change that fact.

The point (which you clearly missed) that I'm making to you in that single paragraph that you broke up is that you seem to have a perfect excuse for everything under the sun. Never mind that we could naturally assume that a frontcourt player would have direct influence against another frontcourt player (unless they are Dirk, they tend to occupy a rather specific area of the court and perform rather specific tasks regardless) but for the sake of argument we will say that it could have been Rajon Rondo actually guarding the frontcourt all this time. Who knows, I don't know, do you know? That measure doesn't specify so I'll just let my imagination run wild to suit my agenda!

I would like to see Horford play with a good Center and I do believe the fact he hasn't had one up to now taints those statistics.

And this is a copout if there ever was one. Why should we rely on other players to evaluate Al as a specific player himself? Does he require a Center strong enough to lift him up to the rim to dunk? Did we need to see Lebron in Miami before we could figure out he is a pretty good player? Just like I took the trouble to look through individual games to compile Al's stats at PF, 82games did that for every game and compiled it in a concise manner. If you want to go down the rabbit hole of "well I need to see player X with Y in order to make any judgements" then perhaps your opinions on his potential are being tainted also by him playing next to other great players but I'm pretty sure that this double edged sword won't swing in that direction.

I showed that he played the majority of minutes at Center. Who cares if, for example, Petro starts if he only plays 19 minutes at Center, then Horford plays the majority there? Especially when West (in your example) played all his minutes at PF?

If we are going to follow this logic then we actually have zero evidence of him being able to play PF seeing as the only instance where he ever played predominantly at PF was the Orlando series which you already excused away. So what have we left outside of his measurements from the draft combine to make claims of him being fit for PF?

You picked 2 games out of 6 in a series where he, on the whole outplayed West. ONLY those 2 games supplied you with an argument.

My original point was about those two games and when questioned about those two games I went even deeper to support my point on those two games. Do you know how much work I put into just researching that? Work that none of you would ever dare muster but you guys are always the quickest to shoot down guys like Azu or me or all of the professional statisticians that are working to revolutionize how the game is getting quantified with your simple arguments of the "tape" telling you otherwise.

If I ever get the free time perhaps I'll pull an 82games and go through every minute that Al played at PF in that series and every other too but alas, I fear my work will be wasted considering that whenever I type more than 3 syllables your attention spans seem to falter and you always seem to have excuses already saved in your hotkeys.

That was a very important argument for you and I showed that Horford had a serious back and hamstring injury at the time. You didn't remember Horford's injuries and you're angry I shot down the argument. You still cannot say, "My bad," in that case. You made a conclusion based on a few statistics and screwed up by not remembering 2 very large extenuating circumstances.


You didn't prove anything and certainly not the severity of any of those injuries. Even the suggestion that injuries that occurred months before a series were cause for Al's poor play sounds insane yet, there you were suggesting it as if it was fact. Did you provide an injury report? Log of games missed? Provide any statistical drop off to prove that he was severely hampered by these injuries as you suggested? Perhaps the reason why I forgot is for the simple fact that they weren't noteworthy enough to anyone outside of Al Horford apologists.

Earlier, when you showed me I was reading the game logs backwards, I admitted it. You are constitutionally incapable of doing the same. I disproved your arguments (really, the B-R point is embarrassingly dumb) and all you can do is throw angry insults.

You haven't disproven anything except for harping on minor points that do nothing to effect the overall point of anything that I've said. What you have is your excuses and nothing to back it up so what is there for me to feel corrected on? Where have I gone wrong? Did I miss anything?

That is still a strawman argument, made all the more foolish by your complaint that I am calling one set "more restrictive" than his pectoral injury, even though you made the same claim in reverse. If you think I'm dumb for doing it, why are you doing it, too? However, I supported my claim by reminding you that this board had members noticing Horford's lowered level of play and criticizing him for it.

No what it is is proving that your excuse is preposterous by combating it with another preposterous statement. I in no way believe that his pectoral injury was in any way restrictive during the Boston series (sure as hell didn't look like it) the same way I certainly don't believe that a supposed back bruise and strained hamstring that he received months before tanked his Orlando series. If injury truly is the root cause for a situation, especially one that occurred months before, then you will see far more evidence of it being represented previously. What I want for you is to prove the severity which you can't outside of well it's the back and the hamstring, clearly he essentially slipped a disc and tore a muscle.....thus why he missed all of 5 games all year with little statistical drop off until the Orlando swoon. Perhaps a guy always complaining about having to play a man's position really is just soft. That ever occur to you?

Jealous?

As with everything you do, I'm sure you'll provide your credentials /sarcasm.

Qualify much? So he gutted it out. You say that's proof he wasn't hurt? Really? And he did play softer - your lawyer-like qualifying of his performance shows you can't prove your statements - or you would have.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/splits/_/ ... al-horford

I'm sure you're going to focus in on April and say "SEEEE!".

Nevermind that month is where he played his least amount of minutes what with the team already having it's 1st round matchup with the Magic clinched and all (SEEEEE! http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... &year=2011). Yet despite the lower minutes and nothing to play for in those closing games he wasn't able to reproduce the same rebound rates, FG% and barely even points in the Orlando series. CLEARLY had to be the injury from February at work.

Heck even check out his individual game logs
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2011/

Pay special attention to the games that occurred after these "severe" injuries were sustained. Those were some gutsy performances.

Silly.

I know, I thought so too thus why I remarked about it so sarcastically.

You're supposed to debate respectfully, without angry insults at anyone who dares disagree with you. And I'm allowed to have my opinion, especially when your conclusions are so easily disproved.


Big part of respectful debates is actually disproving another person's arguments and not just saying that you did when you didn't and expecting them to eat that bull ****. If my pointing out that it's garbage rustles your jimmies then for the love of God, grow a backbone or just learn to argue better.

Here we have the crux of your problem - the root of your faulty logic: you pick one narrow set of facts and "establish" them as absolute truth. I picked others and disagreed with you.

What facts have you provided and what is this "narrow" set that I'm harping on because it seems as if I've ran the full gamut which taken in entirety......seemed to have proved my point. You think that your nitpicks and Devil's advocacy actually laid waste to the metrics I (and others) have provided?

See I could have just started my side of the debate with the preposition of "from watching every Hawk game that Al Horford has played, having live chatted while doing so, and blogged on them after to fully encompass both what my eyes saw with the views of others from the same broadcast, I've come to the conclusion that he's not a fluid or strong enough athlete to thrive at the PF position". But see in that case the argument is just going to go back and forth between my stance and "well my eyes tell me different". So like any reasonably intelligent person I decided to go beyond that and actually quantify what my eyes saw with stats. They were proven right but alas bringing stats to the debate didn't make it more civil or me more informed, nope it just became a matter of me being told that I'm focusing on one minor subset of a modicum of a footnote, never watched the game, I'm a meanie, I type too much, the end.
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Re: As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction 

Post#91 » by dms269 » Sun Sep 22, 2013 12:52 am

This argument has stopped being a productive thread.

Locking it.
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