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Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread

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Are you happy with the draft?

Yes
2
50%
No
2
50%
 
Total votes: 4

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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3841 » by Jamaaliver » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:25 pm

This model ESPN uses sees JJJ as a higher projected prospect than Wendell Carter. But sees JJJ more likely to be a role player (slightly) and W Carter Jr more likely to be an All Star (slightly).

This is a bit of a relief. Hearing so much praise for JJJ, I was starting to fear I drastically overlooking something.

Noteworthy that Jaren has the lowest bust potential of anyone in this draft...according to the model.

Jamaaliver wrote:
Boom or bust: ESPN's Draft Analytics model predicts top players in 2018 NBA draft

The best prospect in the 2018 NBA draft is not Deandre Ayton or Luka Doncic. It's Marvin Bagley III.

That assertion is neither a scout's opinion nor a writer's hot take, but rather the conclusion of ESPN's Draft Analytics model.

The former Arizona center and the Slovenian point guard are widely regarded as the primary candidates for the Suns' selection at the No. 1 spot, but the model -- based on a variety of criteria -- projects Bagley to have the best average early career of anyone in the class. It also believes Bagley has the best chance among this year's crop of playing at an All-Star level in his first five seasons.

this is not a unanimous decision: Ayton and Doncic both rank higher in ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony's Top 100.



So where does the model come down on some of the other top names in this year's class?

No. 4 Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C, Michigan State

Overall, the model likes Jackson in spite of what it would consider a lack of star potential. The system believes he is remarkably solid and the most likely player to end up a regular starter -- but not an All-Star -- in the NBA with a 42 percent chance. His shot to reach that next level -- of being an All-Star -- is much lower (8 percent) than someone like Mikal Bridges (15 percent). For teams picking this high, it's hard to pass upside in a star-driven league like the NBA.


No. 5 Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova

Besides Bagley at No. 1, Bridges is a fairly big call for the model at No. 5. It's only a handful of spots ahead of where many expect him to go, but this early, that makes a big difference. To wrap up the thought above, Bridges' 15 percent All-Star chance makes him second-most likely in the class, behind only Bagley, despite the fact that he quite possibly will be the oldest person selected in the lottery. This is all about his college production: at Villanova he was an efficient scorer with strong ball security and provided both steals and blocks en route to a strong overall defensive rating. From the model's standpoint, looking at his college play, what's not to like?



No. 10 Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma

There's no boom-or-bust prospect in this year's class quite like Young, the divisive player who took college hoops by storm at the beginning of the season before struggling in the second half. Outside of Lonnie Walker IV, whom the model despises, no one has a higher bust percentage (23 percent) than Young in Givony's top 15. But at the same time, the former Oklahoma point guard also has the fifth-best shot at becoming an All-Star (12 percent).
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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3842 » by Spud2nique » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:41 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:This model ESPN uses sees JJJ as a higher projected prospect than Wendell Carter. But sees JJJ more likely to be a role player (slightly) and W Carter Jr more likely to be an All Star (slightly).

This is a bit of a relief. Hearing so much praise for JJJ, I was starting to fear I drastically overlooking something.

Noteworthy that Jaren has the lowest bust potential of anyone in this draft...according to the model.

Jamaaliver wrote:
Boom or bust: ESPN's Draft Analytics model predicts top players in 2018 NBA draft

The best prospect in the 2018 NBA draft is not Deandre Ayton or Luka Doncic. It's Marvin Bagley III.

That assertion is neither a scout's opinion nor a writer's hot take, but rather the conclusion of ESPN's Draft Analytics model.

The former Arizona center and the Slovenian point guard are widely regarded as the primary candidates for the Suns' selection at the No. 1 spot, but the model -- based on a variety of criteria -- projects Bagley to have the best average early career of anyone in the class. It also believes Bagley has the best chance among this year's crop of playing at an All-Star level in his first five seasons.

this is not a unanimous decision: Ayton and Doncic both rank higher in ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony's Top 100.



So where does the model come down on some of the other top names in this year's class?

No. 4 Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C, Michigan State

Overall, the model likes Jackson in spite of what it would consider a lack of star potential. The system believes he is remarkably solid and the most likely player to end up a regular starter -- but not an All-Star -- in the NBA with a 42 percent chance. His shot to reach that next level -- of being an All-Star -- is much lower (8 percent) than someone like Mikal Bridges (15 percent). For teams picking this high, it's hard to pass upside in a star-driven league like the NBA.


No. 5 Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova

Besides Bagley at No. 1, Bridges is a fairly big call for the model at No. 5. It's only a handful of spots ahead of where many expect him to go, but this early, that makes a big difference. To wrap up the thought above, Bridges' 15 percent All-Star chance makes him second-most likely in the class, behind only Bagley, despite the fact that he quite possibly will be the oldest person selected in the lottery. This is all about his college production: at Villanova he was an efficient scorer with strong ball security and provided both steals and blocks en route to a strong overall defensive rating. From the model's standpoint, looking at his college play, what's not to like?



No. 10 Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma

There's no boom-or-bust prospect in this year's class quite like Young, the divisive player who took college hoops by storm at the beginning of the season before struggling in the second half. Outside of Lonnie Walker IV, whom the model despises, no one has a higher bust percentage (23 percent) than Young in Givony's top 15. But at the same time, the former Oklahoma point guard also has the fifth-best shot at becoming an All-Star (12 percent).
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Picking between JJJ and Wendell would be tough...
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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3843 » by Spud2nique » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:49 pm

I have 1 problem with Bamba...he is too nice. I need a mean SOB.
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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3844 » by Jamaaliver » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:53 pm

Spud2nique wrote:Picking between JJJ and Wendell would be tough...



1. I 100% agree.

2. I, sadly, don't think anyone is seriously debating those two specifically. I suspect the debates raging through scouting departments everywhere is: JJJ v Bamba.




Someone's gonna stumble upon a Wendell Carter Jr or Miles Bridges and end up with a stud simply because they were picking later and those prospects suddenly become great value. :nonono:

Like us with J Collins, Utah with Donovan Mitchell or Phoenix with Devin Booker.
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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3845 » by jayu70 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:59 pm

Spud2nique wrote:
Jamaaliver wrote:This model ESPN uses sees JJJ as a higher projected prospect than Wendell Carter. But sees JJJ more likely to be a role player (slightly) and W Carter Jr more likely to be an All Star (slightly).

This is a bit of a relief. Hearing so much praise for JJJ, I was starting to fear I drastically overlooking something.

Noteworthy that Jaren has the lowest bust potential of anyone in this draft...according to the model.

Jamaaliver wrote:

ESPN



Picking between JJJ and Wendell would be tough...

The only reason it would be tough is if I'm taking either at #3.
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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3846 » by azuresou1 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:01 pm

Table is the way to go

Image


My takeaways on what the model says vs. general consensus:
- Loves Bagley and Bridges (high star%, low bust %)
- Hates MPJ, Trae, Sexton
- Sees JJJ and Bamba as low ceiling but very high floor
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Re: RE: Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3847 » by King Ken » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:04 pm

azuresou1 wrote:Table is the way to go

Image


My takeaways on what the model says vs. general consensus:
- Loves Bagley and Bridges (high star%, low bust %)
- Hates MPJ, Trae, Sexton
- Sees JJJ and Bamba as low ceiling but very high floor


It tells you that JJJ and Bamba arent that good. If selected it will be based off of potential but both can help a team right now. Even off of potential, it has to be something they can't account for to be a star. For me, Bamba has Giannis upside. JJJ has Marvin Williams upside. I see one as a much better long term prospect than the other.

Mikal and Bagley is my #7 and #1 overall player and for a reason. They can be all stars. I see Mikal as Al Horford like at SG in terms of doing a lot while also being a team impact player. He will be very good for many years to come. Bagley is the only person in this class I think is a lock to be an all star and has a extremely high chance at being a superstar.

Sexton and Young are fairly rated. Can't say the same for Porter. I have more bust potential on him but more all star potential as well.

I like Walker IV. But you know he is a Zack Lavine type but better off the ball and on D. Not the same scorer. He will never rate well with these but will translate to the NBA without issue due to how freaky of an athlete he is

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Re: RE: Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3848 » by King Ken » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:07 pm

Spud2nique wrote:
Jamaaliver wrote:This model ESPN uses sees JJJ as a higher projected prospect than Wendell Carter. But sees JJJ more likely to be a role player (slightly) and W Carter Jr more likely to be an All Star (slightly).

This is a bit of a relief. Hearing so much praise for JJJ, I was starting to fear I drastically overlooking something.

Noteworthy that Jaren has the lowest bust potential of anyone in this draft...according to the model.

Jamaaliver wrote:

ESPN



Picking between JJJ and Wendell would be tough...
For me it's not. Carter is most likely going to peak at a higher clip than Brook Lopez who was a borderline AS for most of his career.

JJJ at best will be Larry Sanders with range. That's more valuable than Carter Jr but both need the right situation and personnel to be effective long term. Carter Jr needs less and can still contribute without being an eye sore.

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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3849 » by Jamaaliver » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:09 pm

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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3850 » by Jamaaliver » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:10 pm

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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3851 » by Jamaaliver » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:12 pm

Not so bold prediction, but one of the teams represented in this photo will draft Wendell next week.

Not sure if he ends up playing with any of them, though.

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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3852 » by King Ken » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:18 pm

Spud2nique wrote:I have 1 problem with Bamba...he is too nice. I need a mean SOB.

Think Steph, he doesn't play nice
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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3853 » by kg01 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:35 pm

The best NBA analyst in the world (aka Tim Legler) just endorsed #TheMPorterJr (said he's a bucket-getter, sure to translate to the NBA game) and called Young a total boom/bust prospect who showed no competitiveness or fire on defense all year.

Hol' on, kg's gotta go 3rd person on y'all foos ...

kg is bak in the Porter-house, baybee!!!!
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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3854 » by Jamaaliver » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:53 pm

An underrated prospect and project with incredibly high upside for the 2nd round.

Michael Cunningham wrote:Hawks draft workout report: Trevon Duval, Duke

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Trevon Duval was a consensus top-10 national recruit out of IMG Academy, either the No. 1 or No. 2 point guard in the 2017 class. He would have been top dog at nearly every NCAA program.

After his workout with the Hawks on Wednesday, Duval echoed recent comments by college teammate Wendell Carter, who said Duke’s players would be able to show more of their strengths in the NBA. There are reasons to think Duval can elevate his game in the pros despite a shaky outside shot.

Duke’s offense went through...the post, so Duval didn’t get to play to his strengths by operating with the ball and slashing to the basket. Duval also wasn’t able to fully showcase his athletic ability in Duke’s zone defense, though he still ranked tied for 12th in the ACC in steals percentage.

Duval has a good physical profile for his position. At the combine last month he measured 6-foot-2 1/2 inches tall and 191 pounds with an excellent wingspan of 6-8 1/4. Duval is a strong and explosive athlete who was able to get into the lane at Duke, something he said will translate to the NBA.



Duval was a good playmaker at Duke, with an assist percentage that ranked sixth-best in the ACC among players with at least 800 minutes played, according to Sports Reference. But Duval’s poor shooting is the biggest reason he’s not a top prospect in this draft after he was projected as a lottery pick coming out of high school.


If Duval can improve his shot he could stick in the NBA because of his strength, athletic ability and playmaking ability. He’s likely to be available when and if the Hawks use the No. 34 overall pick.
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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3855 » by Spud2nique » Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:25 am

Jamaaliver wrote:Not so bold prediction, but one of the teams represented in this photo will draft Wendell next week.

Not sure if he ends up playing with any of them, though.

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The three teams in the photo make up 98% of the pie..hawks 2%...
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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3856 » by Spud2nique » Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:40 am

jayu70 wrote:
Spud2nique wrote:
Jamaaliver wrote:This model ESPN uses sees JJJ as a higher projected prospect than Wendell Carter. But sees JJJ more likely to be a role player (slightly) and W Carter Jr more likely to be an All Star (slightly).

This is a bit of a relief. Hearing so much praise for JJJ, I was starting to fear I drastically overlooking something.

Noteworthy that Jaren has the lowest bust potential of anyone in this draft...according to the model.




Picking between JJJ and Wendell would be tough...

The only reason it would be tough is if I'm taking either at #3.


Ya that qualifies as nightmarish for sure.
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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3857 » by Spud2nique » Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:35 am

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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3858 » by ATL Boy » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:20 am

The longer it takes to get to the draft the more the Kings overthink this. They're literally in the easiest position in the draft, just needing to take whoever falls between Doncic and Ayton, and it feels like they're about to blow it, as they usually do.

This bodes very well for us. Take Luka if he falls and don't look back.


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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3859 » by Jamaaliver » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:18 am

ATL Boy wrote:The longer it takes to get to the draft the more the Kings overthink this. They're literally in the easiest position in the draft, just needing to take whoever falls between Doncic and Ayton, and it feels like they're about to blow it, as they usually do.

This bodes very well for us. Take Luka if he falls and don't look back.



Yep. Schlenk seems like he's blowing smoke, just waiting for draft night to make his move(s).

Vlade and the Kings are one workout away from trading #2 for Markelle Fultz and a bag of magic beans. They didn't plan on picking this high and have no idea what to do.
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Re: Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#3860 » by Jamaaliver » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:19 am

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