Game Thread: Magic @ Hawks 02/10/19

[jayu70]

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[Hazer]

There is no difference between sitting at any spot 1-5 as far as screening someone from being bottom 5. We'd screen just as effectively at the 1 spot.

So if we were in spot 1 and Orlando in spot 5, and Dallas decided to pivot from making playoffs to keeping their pick, at spot 1 we could control Orlando from winning meaningless games and letting Dallas slip past them into said 5th spot?

Let's use a concrete example of this to illustrate the point using your example that they pass the team with the 4th best position:

Today Dallas 26-29

Top 5 Hawk Lottery teams
1. NYY 10-45
2. PHO 11-47
3. CLE 11-45
4. CHI 13-43
5. ATL 18-38

Hypothetical: CHI gets to 27 wins by going 14-12 the rest of the way and Dallas loses every game.

If Atlanta stays at the 5th spot and "protects" against this by losing more games, how does that look?
1. NYY 15-67
2. PHO 16-66
3. CLE 17-65
4. ATL 25-57
5. DAL 26-56
6. CHI 27-55

Now how does it look if Atlanta was at the worst record?
1. ATL 14-68
2. NYY 15-67
3. PHO 16-66
4. CLE 17-65
5. DAL 26-56
6. CHI 27-55

In both cases, all we do is stay below Dallas and we do not "block" them any more effectively at the 5th spot than we do at the 1st spot. The reality is that in both scenarios it is out of our control because if Dallas can get a worse record than everyone but 4 teams (including us) then they make the top 5 regardless of whether we are in spot 1 or spot 4.

I know you’re using a hypothetical to make the point, but the fallacy there is having a team who’s won 13 games all season (3-7 in their last 10), somehow finish out at 14-12. Yes, in that unlikeliest of that unlikely scenario, Hawks position 1-5 would be moot. However, here in reality, Bulls aren’t going 14-12 (probably more like 8-18) and Dallas isn’t winning less than 30 games. But I’ll play along, instead using the most likely real scenario, yet even giving you Dallas not winning another game:

1) NY 15-67
2) PHO 16-66
3) CLE 17-65
4) CHI 21-61
5) ATL 25-57
6) DAL 26-56

Very realistic W/L nimbers for NY, PHO, CLE, and CHI. ATL could realistically be closer to upper 20s. But operating under your hypothetical assumption of DAL going 0-fer and not winning anymore games, Hawks could pretty much stay on nearly their current pace and still (deliberately) stay under DAL. My list is the realistic one of what the bottom 5 will most likely look like, and magnifies the importance of
my theory of “Taking the 5th.”

[peoriabird]

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Either that was an academy award winning performance by Pierce or he is actually upset that the team isn't putting forth the effort lately to win games. We know what the conspiracy theorist think.

[benhillboy]

Haven’t been able to catch the games much in the last week. Good for me. I’m guessing the rookies are hitting the wall hard. We need to go back on the road or something.

[peoriabird]

Haven’t been able to catch the games much in the last week. Good for me. I’m guessing the rookies are hitting the wall hard. We need to go back on the road or something.

John can't rebound anymore...Nobody can play defense anymore. Its been ugly

[benhillboy]

Haven’t been able to catch the games much in the last week. Good for me. I’m guessing the rookies are hitting the wall hard. We need to go back on the road or something.

John can't rebound anymore...Nobody can play defense anymore. Its been ugly

I’ve been throwing out games versus the Raptors for the past few years. Won the rebounding battle versus Charlotte but Kemba being +25 over Trae is to be expected as well. When your best defender is a gambling reserve I expect it to only be good in spurts.

John leaves a little to be desired in terms of boxing out defensively, and I’m sure teams are paying more attention to keeping him off the glass. I’m looking at 3 combined rebounds sideways last night from Len, Baze, and Taurean. I’d be quite pleased if we go 3-3 to wrap the month.

[kg01]

I'm not saying but ..... seems Collins' play has tailed off since the all-stars were named. Not that he should've expected an invite but .... eh, probably coincidence.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

So if we were in spot 1 and Orlando in spot 5, and Dallas decided to pivot from making playoffs to keeping their pick, at spot 1 we could control Orlando from winning meaningless games and letting Dallas slip past them into said 5th spot?

Let's use a concrete example of this to illustrate the point using your example that they pass the team with the 4th best position:

Today Dallas 26-29

Top 5 Hawk Lottery teams
1. NYY 10-45
2. PHO 11-47
3. CLE 11-45
4. CHI 13-43
5. ATL 18-38

Hypothetical: CHI gets to 27 wins by going 14-12 the rest of the way and Dallas loses every game.

If Atlanta stays at the 5th spot and "protects" against this by losing more games, how does that look?
1. NYY 15-67
2. PHO 16-66
3. CLE 17-65
4. ATL 25-57
5. DAL 26-56
6. CHI 27-55

Now how does it look if Atlanta was at the worst record?
1. ATL 14-68
2. NYY 15-67
3. PHO 16-66
4. CLE 17-65
5. DAL 26-56
6. CHI 27-55

In both cases, all we do is stay below Dallas and we do not "block" them any more effectively at the 5th spot than we do at the 1st spot. The reality is that in both scenarios it is out of our control because if Dallas can get a worse record than everyone but 4 teams (including us) then they make the top 5 regardless of whether we are in spot 1 or spot 4.

I know you’re using a hypothetical to make the point, but the fallacy there is having a team who’s won 13 games all season (3-7 in their last 10), somehow finish out at 14-12. Yes, in that unlikeliest of that unlikely scenario, Hawks position 1-5 would be moot. However, here in reality, Bulls aren’t going 14-12 (probably more like 8-18) and Dallas isn’t winning less than 30 games. But I’ll play along, instead using the most likely real scenario, yet even giving you Dallas not winning another game:

1) NY 15-67
2) PHO 16-66
3) CLE 17-65
4) CHI 21-61
5) ATL 25-57
6) DAL 26-56

Very realistic W/L nimbers for NY, PHO, CLE, and CHI. ATL could realistically be closer to upper 20s. But operating under your hypothetical assumption of DAL going 0-fer and not winning anymore games, Hawks could pretty much stay on nearly their current pace and still (deliberately) stay under DAL. My list is the realistic one of what the bottom 5 will most likely look like, and magnifies the importance of
my theory of “Taking the 5th.”

I beg of you Hazer to focus on what difference it makes if Atlanta is 5th on that list or 2nd. Please articulate anything on that topic because there is zero protective value to us being the 5th team. If Dallas can't catch any of NY, PHO, CLE, and CHI then it does not matter at all where we finish so long as it is below them. If we are 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th -- it doesn't matter.

There is nothing special about us being in the 5th place. At all. Not even a little. You need to retire that proposition.

EDIT Nevermind - I saw that you got there on the other thread.

[Hazer]

Let's use a concrete example of this to illustrate the point using your example that they pass the team with the 4th best position:

Today Dallas 26-29

Top 5 Hawk Lottery teams
1. NYY 10-45
2. PHO 11-47
3. CLE 11-45
4. CHI 13-43
5. ATL 18-38

Hypothetical: CHI gets to 27 wins by going 14-12 the rest of the way and Dallas loses every game.

If Atlanta stays at the 5th spot and "protects" against this by losing more games, how does that look?
1. NYY 15-67
2. PHO 16-66
3. CLE 17-65
4. ATL 25-57
5. DAL 26-56
6. CHI 27-55

Now how does it look if Atlanta was at the worst record?
1. ATL 14-68
2. NYY 15-67
3. PHO 16-66
4. CLE 17-65
5. DAL 26-56
6. CHI 27-55

In both cases, all we do is stay below Dallas and we do not "block" them any more effectively at the 5th spot than we do at the 1st spot. The reality is that in both scenarios it is out of our control because if Dallas can get a worse record than everyone but 4 teams (including us) then they make the top 5 regardless of whether we are in spot 1 or spot 4.

I know you’re using a hypothetical to make the point, but the fallacy there is having a team who’s won 13 games all season (3-7 in their last 10), somehow finish out at 14-12. Yes, in that unlikeliest of that unlikely scenario, Hawks position 1-5 would be moot. However, here in reality, Bulls aren’t going 14-12 (probably more like 8-18) and Dallas isn’t winning less than 30 games. But I’ll play along, instead using the most likely real scenario, yet even giving you Dallas not winning another game:

1) NY 15-67
2) PHO 16-66
3) CLE 17-65
4) CHI 21-61
5) ATL 25-57
6) DAL 26-56

Very realistic W/L nimbers for NY, PHO, CLE, and CHI. ATL could realistically be closer to upper 20s. But operating under your hypothetical assumption of DAL going 0-fer and not winning anymore games, Hawks could pretty much stay on nearly their current pace and still (deliberately) stay under DAL. My list is the realistic one of what the bottom 5 will most likely look like, and magnifies the importance of
my theory of “Taking the 5th.”

I beg of you Hazer to focus on what difference it makes if Atlanta is 5th on that list or 2nd. Please articulate anything on that topic because there is zero protective value to us being the 5th team. If Dallas can't catch any of NY, PHO, CLE, and CHI then it does not matter at all where we finish so long as it is below them. If we are 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th -- it doesn't matter.

There is nothing special about us being in the 5th place. At all. Not even a little. You need to retire that proposition.

EDIT Nevermind - I saw that you got there on the other thread.

Wise man, admit point, many moon. Small man, never wrong, witch doctor

[Hazer]

The Magics are the team directly above the Hawks for 6th worst. And y’all are surprised how this game is going? Done told y’all

Your boy Isaac showing life. He’s got the body and skills for sure.


Throw this game away let’s get ready for the Lakers on Tuesday.

Good memory, I was resident Isaac draft advocate around here. You’re right, he’s really starting to show something. His 3 blocks on a single Hawks’ possession was hilarious (infuriating)