Revisting (Schroder Traded, Young drafted) 2018 draft strategy

[ATL Boy]

Guys, let's try to get this thread back to the topic of the Schroder trade and the 2018 draft strategy. If you'd like to continue talking about the Hawks' playoff chances next year then be my guests, but I only ask that we make a new thread for it.

[graymule]

Guys, let's try to get this thread back to the topic of the Schroder trade and the 2018 draft strategy. If you'd like to continue talking about the Hawks' playoff chances next year then be my guests, but I only ask that we make a new thread for it.

- - But the 2018 draft strategy has a direct effect on our playoff chances. I like our playoff chances BECAUSE of the
former 2 year drafts.

[thecampster]

Schoeder was traded after the draft

The trading away of Dennis was in the works for 2 months prior to the draft. It was no secret.

[thecampster]

Great homer speech! It touched all the bases of a thorough homer speech...."my team is the only team that had to deal with injuries and all the other teams except my team have roster questions going into next year".

You talk about roster issues for other teams, but at this point there's no guarantee that Atlanta is going to be able to field a roster that is better than the team ATL had this season, other than the expected improvement of Trae, JC, Huerter and Spellman.


Like I said, I hope you guys are right and I'm dead wrong and next year we are laughing about this as we watch ATL in the playoffs, but I think a more likely scenario is you guys are setting yourself up to be disappointed. My goal for next season is for the rooks to show noticeable improvement and the roster to be tweaked with the influx of some promising wing rookies and hopefully a rim protector big man. Anything more than that is pure gravy for me.

You can mock all you want but you've yet to bring anything substantive to the conversation other than calling me and others "homers". That's some real insight there. And funny thing is, I've addressed every roster question facing the Hawks in my post. Dwayne Dedmon. That's it. If you want to claim that Dedmon being an unrestricted FA is the same as DWade retiring, Vucevic being an unrestricted FA, Kemba Walker being an unrestricted FA, etc.... then you and I have DRASTICALLY different opinions of Dwayne Dedmon.

Here's an idea...why don't you actually analyze the position the Hawks are in compared to these other teams before automatically assuming everyone else is just a homer.

And FYI...

Brooklyn Nets - 28 wins in 2018; 42 wins in 2019; an increase of 14 wins or 50%
Orlando Magic - 25 wins in 2018; 42 wins in 2019; an increase of 17 wins or 68%
Milwaukee Bucks - 44 wins in 2018; 60 wins in 2019; an increase of 16 wins or 36%
Sacramento Kings - 27 wins in 2018; 39 wins in 2019; an increase of 12 wins or 44%

So please....tell me more about how teams don't jump up in the standings in one year. And how it's a homerish opinion to think the Hawks could improve their win total by 10-12 games or 35-40%.

The prediction for wins is pretty easy. 5-24 start due to no Collins/lesser Collins, 3 rookies and new system. Rest of the year were just below .500. Easy answer here is our post 30 game win % which was .450 which would be 37 wins. Now factor in the eventual trading of Bazemore (either before start of the year or the break), 2 probable top 10 picks and 40 million in cap space (1 top 50 player) and you can add 5-10 additional wins. It is not crazy to see 42 wins next year and a ceiling of 47. The 37 to 47 window is reasonable.

In my humble opinion, the season hinges on a personal nutritionist vs Waffle House. If Omari Spellman hires a personal nutritionist and or the Hawks get him one and he gets himself into real basketball shape, we get disturbingly better. Spellman reminds me of fat Shawn Kemp vs young in shape Shawn Kemp.

Shawn Kemp 1996 was 19.6 ppg, 11.2 rpg and 280 lbs. Kemp 2000 had fallen off the wagon. Was above 320 lbs and was no longer even a starter. I have this magic weight in my head of 265 for Spellman where he becomes unstoppable. His first step was his biggest anchor last year. Getting in the best shape of his life would make the Hawks terrifying.

[REHawksFan]

You can mock all you want but you've yet to bring anything substantive to the conversation other than calling me and others "homers". That's some real insight there. And funny thing is, I've addressed every roster question facing the Hawks in my post. Dwayne Dedmon. That's it. If you want to claim that Dedmon being an unrestricted FA is the same as DWade retiring, Vucevic being an unrestricted FA, Kemba Walker being an unrestricted FA, etc.... then you and I have DRASTICALLY different opinions of Dwayne Dedmon.

Here's an idea...why don't you actually analyze the position the Hawks are in compared to these other teams before automatically assuming everyone else is just a homer.

And FYI...

Brooklyn Nets - 28 wins in 2018; 42 wins in 2019; an increase of 14 wins or 50%
Orlando Magic - 25 wins in 2018; 42 wins in 2019; an increase of 17 wins or 68%
Milwaukee Bucks - 44 wins in 2018; 60 wins in 2019; an increase of 16 wins or 36%
Sacramento Kings - 27 wins in 2018; 39 wins in 2019; an increase of 12 wins or 44%

So please....tell me more about how teams don't jump up in the standings in one year. And how it's a homerish opinion to think the Hawks could improve their win total by 10-12 games or 35-40%.

The prediction for wins is pretty easy. 5-24 start due to no Collins/lesser Collins, 3 rookies and new system. Rest of the year were just below .500. Easy answer here is our post 30 game win % which was .450 which would be 37 wins. Now factor in the eventual trading of Bazemore (either before start of the year or the break), 2 probable top 10 picks and 40 million in cap space (1 top 50 player) and you can add 5-10 additional wins. It is not crazy to see 42 wins next year and a ceiling of 47. The 37 to 47 window is reasonable.

In my humble opinion, the season hinges on a personal nutritionist vs Waffle House. If Omari Spellman hires a personal nutritionist and or the Hawks get him one and he gets himself into real basketball shape, we get disturbingly better. Spellman reminds me of fat Shawn Kemp vs young in shape Shawn Kemp.

Shawn Kemp 1996 was 19.6 ppg, 11.2 rpg and 280 lbs. Kemp 2000 had fallen off the wagon. Was above 320 lbs and was no longer even a starter. I have this magic weight in my head of 265 for Spellman where he becomes unstoppable. His first step was his biggest anchor last year. Getting in the best shape of his life would make the Hawks terrifying.

I like the way you think.

With that said, though, 47 wins is a little rich for my taste. I will be pleasantly surprised by anything over 42. My range of expected outcomes is somewhere in the 38-42 wins. I can easily see the team progressing from 24 last year to 29 this year to 42 next year to 50+ the following year. Given the age and makeup of the team, there's nothing outlandish about that type of win progression, imo.

[thecampster]

I like the way you think.

With that said, though, 47 wins is a little rich for my taste. I will be pleasantly surprised by anything over 42. My range of expected outcomes is somewhere in the 38-42 wins. I can easily see the team progressing from 24 last year to 29 this year to 42 next year to 50+ the following year. Given the age and makeup of the team, there's nothing outlandish about that type of win progression, imo.

Well, I do deep dives into the roster and cap. Here is how I see it from my point of view. http://www.shamsports.com/capulator


Current salary that definitely is coming off the books this year.

Carmelo 25.5 mil
Lin 11 mil
Crawford 2.3 mil
Jabari Bird 1.3 mil
Jordan Sibert .047 mil

All of these had a cap charge for the Hawks last year. This is where the majority of our salary cap room is coming from.

These 3 players are officially free agents. With their upcoming cap charge.

Dedmon 8.2 mil
Anderson 7.5 mil
Carter 1.6 mil

Jaylen Adams is on a non-guarantee at this point at 1.417 million.

Bembry, Collins and Prince have team options and all are picked up.

So that gives us 9 currently signed and 5 draft picks. There is no way we use all 5 picks because we only have 6 open slots and no dedmon, anderson or carter signed. I am assuming we are going to use the second rounders in trades to acquire salary...more on that later. I'm assuming we are going to use 3 of our draft pick. This leaves us only 3 roster slots.

So I am assuming we are resigning Carter and probably at about 2.5 or so million like last year. I am for the sake of this argument going to not resign either of Dedmon and Anderson. Here is where this leaves our roster.


Bazemore - 19+ mil
Plumlee - 12.5 mil
Young - 6.273 mil
Len - 4.16 mil
Prince - 3.481 mil
Collins - 2.686+ mil
Huerter - 2.636+ mil
Bembry - 2.603+ mil
Spellman 1.897+ mil
Carter - 2.5 mil

#5 pick - 6.34 mil
#9 pick - 4.422+ mil
2nd round pick - .85 mil

12 roster slots - $68,765,830

The Hawks have 3 roster spots to fill and $39 million to do it and the only major roster player missing is Dedmon. It would be easy to assume the 5th and 9th pick will offer some contribution off the bench...better if we win the lottery.

So now we get to the tricky situation with Bazemore, Plumlee and those 2nd round picks. Another 32 million dollars are tied up in Plumlee and Bazemore, both on their last years. They are going to be hot commodities going into the trade deadline. The Hawks also have 2 other bonus future firsts on the books on the way. They have trade chips. It will be pulling teeth to get F/A to sign here this year but we can always trade for them. There are good players out there that teams need to dump for salary (or other) reasons. Examples are Kevin Love, Jaylen Brown, C.J. McCollum, Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, and Anthony Davis. Depending on how aggressive the Hawks want to be, there are names on this list (Brown/Porter/Beal) that could be good fits in our system and could be gotten for the right deal. All of this depends on the direction we go in the draft and what we can swing in free agency but there is 39 to 71 potential million in new players that could come here without hurting our draft this year and without trading our core. That's a ton of potential and 37-47 could be low depending on how it shakes out. How much of that 39 million we use (and or if we can dump Baze/Plumlee for a longer contract/good player) affects this too much to guess at our win total. Post playoffs/lottery there will be a trade. Don't be surprised if Baze is gone with a future asset or if the seconds are gone to take on someone else's salary.

[peoriabird]

I like the way you think.

With that said, though, 47 wins is a little rich for my taste. I will be pleasantly surprised by anything over 42. My range of expected outcomes is somewhere in the 38-42 wins. I can easily see the team progressing from 24 last year to 29 this year to 42 next year to 50+ the following year. Given the age and makeup of the team, there's nothing outlandish about that type of win progression, imo.

Well, I do deep dives into the roster and cap. Here is how I see it from my point of view. http://www.shamsports.com/capulator


Current salary that definitely is coming off the books this year.

Carmelo 25.5 mil
Lin 11 mil
Crawford 2.3 mil
Jabari Bird 1.3 mil
Jordan Sibert .047 mil

All of these had a cap charge for the Hawks last year. This is where the majority of our salary cap room is coming from.

These 3 players are officially free agents. With their upcoming cap charge.

Dedmon 8.2 mil
Anderson 7.5 mil
Carter 1.6 mil

Jaylen Adams is on a non-guarantee at this point at 1.417 million.

Bembry, Collins and Prince have team options and all are picked up.

So that gives us 9 currently signed and 5 draft picks. There is no way we use all 5 picks because we only have 6 open slots and no dedmon, anderson or carter signed. I am assuming we are going to use the second rounders in trades to acquire salary...more on that later. I'm assuming we are going to use 3 of our draft pick. This leaves us only 3 roster slots.

So I am assuming we are resigning Carter and probably at about 2.5 or so million like last year. I am for the sake of this argument going to not resign either of Dedmon and Anderson. Here is where this leaves our roster.


Bazemore - 19+ mil
Plumlee - 12.5 mil
Young - 6.273 mil
Len - 4.16 mil
Prince - 3.481 mil
Collins - 2.686+ mil
Huerter - 2.636+ mil
Bembry - 2.603+ mil
Spellman 1.897+ mil
Carter - 2.5 mil

#5 pick - 6.34 mil
#9 pick - 4.422+ mil
2nd round pick - .85 mil

12 roster slots - $68,765,830

The Hawks have 3 roster spots to fill and $39 million to do it and the only major roster player missing is Dedmon. It would be easy to assume the 5th and 9th pick will offer some contribution off the bench...better if we win the lottery.

So now we get to the tricky situation with Bazemore, Plumlee and those 2nd round picks. Another 32 million dollars are tied up in Plumlee and Bazemore, both on their last years. They are going to be hot commodities going into the trade deadline. The Hawks also have 2 other bonus future firsts on the books on the way. They have trade chips. It will be pulling teeth to get F/A to sign here this year but we can always trade for them. There are good players out there that teams need to dump for salary (or other) reasons. Examples are Kevin Love, Jaylen Brown, C.J. McCollum, Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, and Anthony Davis. Depending on how aggressive the Hawks want to be, there are names on this list (Brown/Porter/Beal) that could be good fits in our system and could be gotten for the right deal. All of this depends on the direction we go in the draft and what we can swing in free agency but there is 39 to 71 potential million in new players that could come here without hurting our draft this year and without trading our core. That's a ton of potential and 37-47 could be low depending on how it shakes out. How much of that 39 million we use (and or if we can dump Baze/Plumlee for a longer contract/good player) affects this too much to guess at our win total. Post playoffs/lottery there will be a trade. Don't be surprised if Baze is gone with a future asset or if the seconds are gone to take on someone else's salary.

You made that way too complicated...Just say we are making the playoffs next year!

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

well I'm not making any anti-Hawk predictions, just my opinion that they won't make the playoffs last year.

*Checks the results from the last year...*

I like your odds on this prediction!

(FWIW, I am 100% not in the camp of expecting anything like 50 wins from this team next season unless something remarkable happens in FA. It took a .500 record to make the playoffs this season, however, so I don't think that kind of jump is necessary to have us contending for the playoffs which is my expectation.)