Does Bembry have a future with the Hawks?

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

His TOV% was virtually the same as Trae's, if I looked at it right.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

His TOV% was virtually the same as Trae's, if I looked at it right.

They were basically the same but it is apples to oranges given the amount of ballhandling / assists.

TO%
Trae 17.6%
Bembry 17.4%

A/TO Ratio
Trae 2.14
Bembry 1.46

Trends are also relevant with Trae improving over the year and Bembry seeming to get worse:

Trae TOPG
Nov 4.2
Dec 4.4
Jan 4.1
Feb 3.3
Mar 3.7
Apr 2.5

Bembry Turnover Per 30 (Had to use a different metric since his minutes per game varied wildly unlike Trae)
Nov 2.0
Dec 1.8
Jan 2.3
Feb 2.2
Mar 2.3
Apr 2.7

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

If you're trying to do apples to apples, it might be important to not give April (~2 wks) the same weight in the comparison as the other months (~4 wks), right?

The "trend" you note seems to only really show up to any vivid degree if you treat April as you have.

And what do you expect from your 3rd PG, after all? The same as your #1?

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

If you're trying to do apples to apples, it might be important to not give April (~2 wks) the same weight in the comparison as the other months (~4 wks), right?

The "trend" you note seems to only really show up to any vivid degree if you treat April as you have.

And what do you expect from your 3rd PG, after all? The same as your #1?

Wow. Totally disagree. Ignore April and divide it into two halves:

Nov - 1H Jan: Weighted Avg: 4.3
2H Jan - Mar: Weighted Avg: 3.6
Trae TO Reduction: 19.4%

Nov - 1H Jan: Bembry (2.0 / 1.8 / 4.25) Weighted Avg: 2.07
2H Jan - Mar: Bembry (3.83 / 3.3 / 3.7) Weighted Avg: 2.22
Trae TO Increase: 7.2%

So one guy decreased his turnovers by almost 20% as the season went along while the other increased his turnovers by over 7%. Those are very different trends - a net 27% gap.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

The 3.83 / 3.3 / 3.7 = 2.22 weighted average thing didn't make sense to me, so I took a few minutes... okay, actually several... to take the raw data and do the Excel sheet on my own.

Here are the more exact numbers, done by month, by 10-game periods, and by half-seasons.



No denying that Young improved.

Also no denying that even as much as he improved, he still has a lot of ground yet to catch Bembry.

It's really those last dozen games #71-82 that affected the final numbers so heavily to Young's good and Bembry's bad.

The original point remains... there's ample reason to go into 2019-20 thinking of Bembry legitimately as your 3rd PG, instead of dedicating that space to someone who just isn't going to get much playing time b/c Young plays so much of every game as it is.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

The 3.83 / 3.3 / 3.7 = 2.22 weighted average thing didn't make sense to me

That is because those 3.83 / 3.3 / 3.7 numbers were Trae's numbers not Bembry's. That was my failure to delete that. The 2.07 and 2.22 averages are correct and are the same TO/30 numbers used in my previous post. (Per 30 being used because Trae averaged 30.9 mpg).

I am actually ok with Bembry as an emergency backup who you plan to never run the offense unless there is an injury. But he isn't a PG. He is a wing with decent passing ability.

[D21]

I am actually ok with Bembry as an emergency backup who you plan to never run the offense unless there is an injury. But he isn't a PG. He is a wing with decent passing ability.

He's a player with a very good feel for the game, and can play defense like you always need in a contender team. He just have to improve his shooting, and everything will be easier for him, and for the team.
IMHO, and at this moment, he should be a keeper

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

I am actually ok with Bembry as an emergency backup who you plan to never run the offense unless there is an injury. But he isn't a PG. He is a wing with decent passing ability.

He's a player with a very good feel for the game, and can play defense like you always need in a contender team. He just have to improve his shooting, and everything will be easier for him, and for the team.
IMHO, and at this moment, he should be a keeper

I was a fan of his out of college and like him as a rotation wing for us -- especially as he keeps developing. Last season was a good year for him.

[jayu70]

Read on Twitter

After battling injuries for his first two years in the league, Bembry played all 82 games this past season. With his fair share of highlight-worthy dunks and arguably the team leader in energy on both sides of the floor, he averaged a career-high in minutes, rebounds, assists, steals and points in the 2018-19 campaign.

....This past year has been a turning point for Bembry on and off-the-court, and now he looks to continue pushing the momentum in the right direction.

“It feels great, man. I got my first fully healthy season,” Bembry said at exit interviews. “I feel great, I feel like I can play a whole ‘nother season. I’m just happy to show what I can do, and show where I can improve as well. I feel like the ceiling is super high for me. I can show and get better in so many areas, but it feels great to get in a full 82 games in. It feels great to say.”

[Jamaaliver]

What is happening with (DeAndre’) Bembry’s contract status moving forward? We likely aren’t offering him a rookie contract extension, so will he be a RFA next summer? Does that make it more likely he seeks a trade mid-season since he appears to be buried behind Hunter, Huerter, Reddish, Crabbe, Evan Turner?

The deadline for Bembry’s rookie scale extension is Oct. 21. Unless something changes in these next few weeks, he won’t be getting an extension. That means he will enter next summer a restricted free agent. Because of that, Bembry understands the enormity of this season for him. Pierce is a big fan of Bembry because of the energy and defense he brings off the bench. As we’ve stated before, Bembry’s minutes might get pinched this year just because of the construction of the second unit and there needing to be shooters on the floor at his position, which hasn’t been a strength of his.

It’s possible he can seek a trade. The Hawks have been willing to work with players when they want a new situation for themselves. Even Tyler Dorsey, who you really only remember if you’re following this team religiously, wanted to be traded at the deadline last year for a better opportunity, and the Hawks made it happen. The same goes for Jeremy Lin wanting to be waived after the deadline. If Bembry decides he doesn’t want to be in Atlanta anymore, the Hawks will try to get a deal done.

It’s premature to talk about him requesting a trade just yet because who knows what this team is going to look like come February, but you shouldn’t expect an extension before the Oct. 21 deadline.

The Athletic

[jayu70]

Not surprised.

Simmons, Murray and Levert are the only 3 that have secured extensions.
Hield, Siakam, Brown - reported in talks with teams.
One name that intrigues me is Domantas Sabonis, I haven't heard of any talks with him and Indy.

[Jamaaliver]

I hope things work out for this dude...he's grown up a lot over the years.

Read on Twitter

[CP War Hawks]

I'm pretty sure they'll offer up a team friendly deal at some point. Half the team is made up of Unrestricted players as is.

[King Ken]

The 3.83 / 3.3 / 3.7 = 2.22 weighted average thing didn't make sense to me, so I took a few minutes... okay, actually several... to take the raw data and do the Excel sheet on my own.

Here are the more exact numbers, done by month, by 10-game periods, and by half-seasons.



No denying that Young improved.

Also no denying that even as much as he improved, he still has a lot of ground yet to catch Bembry.

It's really those last dozen games #71-82 that affected the final numbers so heavily to Young's good and Bembry's bad.

The original point remains... there's ample reason to go into 2019-20 thinking of Bembry legitimately as your 3rd PG, instead of dedicating that space to someone who just isn't going to get much playing time b/c Young plays so much of every game as it is.

Kevin Hureter might be overrated by our fans, the one thing that isn't overrated was everyone was better with him as a part of their rotation. When Bembry was playing with Kevin and VC, he was doing extremely well. Then he had to play with Bazemore or Prince is ish hit the fan. Add Lin being cut for Adams and that was the end of his success.

Kevin lacks versatility but makes up for it in lineup maximization. He fits most lineups. To me, he is worst with Trae and John defensively but he is at his best with them as well on offense. With Lin, he was effective on both ends. It could be also because as a starter, you got to play v. real ballers as a starter.

[jayu70]

Read on Twitter

Bembry is the only player left on the roster who precedes general manager Travis Schlenk’s arrival in Atlanta, a precarious position to be in but one Bembry embraces because it shows him that management and the coaching staff believe in him and see his value.
“I’m here for a reason, I feel like. They could have easily traded me. I still feel like I have something to prove, and I’m looking forward to doing that this season. I feel like if I can prove myself then I can stay here for a long time. You never know what can happen. 
Head coach Lloyd Pierce has noticed Bembry’s dedication to his growth and development plan. Pierce said that there’s no doubt Bembry has spent more time in Atlanta’s practice complex this offseason than any other player on the roster.
“He knows his growth long-term is going to come down to his growth on the offensive end, specifically with shooting,” Pierce said. “I’m proud of the kid. I think he’s done a tremendous job since he’s been here of committing himself to the Atlanta Hawks and committing himself to his growth and development.”
Those who follow the Hawks closely know Pierce isn’t mincing his words when he says how proud he is of Bembry. He’s one of Pierce’s personal favorites because of the spark he provides off the bench and his effort on defense.
“He has to be and will be our highest-motor guy defensively,” Pierce said. “He’s one of our best athletes. He’s one guy that I know for sure that I can stick on a perimeter player in the NBA and feel secure about, so that’s not going to change. As long as he’s doing that, I think he’s going to be all right. We’ve got a lot of versatility and we’ve got a lot of depth, and that’s the beauty of competition. They all have to earn it.”
Bembry will play because of what Pierce said about his defense, but Bembry’s offense has to improve for him to have a solidified role. He knows this.

[Jamaaliver]

Coach Lloyd giving Bembry the start early in preseason. Nice gesture by the coach as DB attempts to cement his role in the rotation in a contract year:

Read on Twitter

[jayu70]

Wow!

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[Jamaaliver]

Contract-year Bembry is a thing!!!

Read on Twitter

[jayu70]

Love the hustle on defense, just needs to slow down on offense.
More consistency needed and stop missing bunnies.

[Jamaaliver]

A look at DeAndre’ Bembry’s early play and where he might fit in Atlanta’s plans

Digging into the fourth-year wing



Dubbed the “Tasmanian Devil” by Cole Zwicker of The Stepien, Bembry is a double-edged sword of a glue guy. Since he was drafted, Hawks fans have become accustomed to the ‘DeAndre’ Bembry Experience,’ best encapsulated by a savvy steal leading to a transition opportunity, then (at least occasionally) to a turnover.

Blessed with great hands, but not always great discretion, Bembry has been a maddening player in some respects. An afterthought in his first two seasons, he has ascended to a regular role in Atlanta’s rotation under Lloyd Pierce. Travis Schlenk will soon have a decision to make regarding his future with the team. Bembry, whose rookie deal expires at the end of the season, has shown glimpses, but not substance.

As a potential “second contract” player, Bembry might be worth a longer look.

Coach Pierce seems to like Bembry, and even when the Hawks are back to full strength, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which he would drop out of Atlanta’s rotation. And nor should he, as he remains the Atlanta’s best perimeter defender.

Advanced metrics favor Bembry’s defense. Among metrics which measure defensive impact, Bembry consistently grades out as Atlanta’s best wing defender. He leads all qualifying Hawks perimeter players in FiveThirtyEight’s defensive RAPTOR rating. He does the same in BBall-Index’s D-PIPM metric, and in Basketball Reference’s defensive box plus/minus.

Over his career, Bembry has maintained a 2.3 percent steal rate. This season, he’s posting a career high 2.7 percent, which ranks 98th percentile for his position. A playmaking defender with a sturdy 6’6 frame and a 6’9 wingspan, Bembry has great instincts for accumulating stocks — blocks and steals — and he has the athleticism and versatility to defend both guard spots. Notably, Pierce has chosen to take Trae Young out of the game in crucial defensive situations in order to take advantage of Bembry’s ability to deter opposing point guards.

Spoiler:

Long-term outlook in Atlanta

With significant cap space next summer, Schlenk will have no shortage of options for filling out Atlanta’s rotation in 2020 -- which might prohibit Bembry’s return to Atlanta; there just might not be enough minutes to go around to invest in Bembry.

That said, Bembry should still receive worthwhile consideration for a second contract.

While his offense still leaves much to be desired, there just aren’t a lot of wings who offer the defensive versatility of Bembry. Given more time to develop, it’s possible he could pursue a Sefolosha-esque trajectory and turn into a reliable glue guy.

But what might a reasonable second contract for Bembry look like?

According to BBall-Index’s PIPM Career Projection Tool, Bembry’s five year value in terms of wins added is estimated at $35.6 million, or $7.1 million annually. An annual amount in that range is a fairly reasonable discussion figure, though close to $7 million per season would be on the higher end value. Anything more than that, barring an unforeseen leap on offense, would certainly constitute a walk-away point.

Looking down the line, in the playoffs, wings who can defend are especially important, and given the defensive questions in Atlanta’s current core, Bembry could play a role as a defensive specialist in a potential playoff rotation.

Peachtree Hoops