Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread

[Jamaaliver]

From what I've seen, if he stayed an extra year in college he'd be in talk to go #1 next year based on projected improvements to his game. So I do understand why scouts are so high on him.

I just don't know if he can take over a game or carry a team at the highest levels. He reminds me of a bigger Serge Ibaka.

I'd still take Michael Porter, Jr. over him.

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The advanced stats do love this kid.

FWIW

[Jamaaliver]

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[thr3ep01nte4]

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I still like Bamba more with the defense and rebounding. Ayton is better than him too. What cannot be overlooked is the physical side of the NBA, athleticism, strength, and size. This guy is a good defender but he’s a light rebounder, which is hard for him to be your only big man on the court. An example is Porzingis, who is an elite defender but terrible rebounder for his size. Poor rebounding makes it difficult for him to be the anchor of your team. I’d take a guy who’s also elite at defense and excellent at rebounding like Bamba, or an elite rebounder who has all the tools to be sufficient at defense like Ayton over JJJ.

[Jamaaliver]

What cannot be overlooked is the physical side of the NBA, athleticism, strength, and size.

This guy is a good defender but he’s a light rebounder, which is hard for him to be your only big man on the court. Poor rebounding makes it difficult for him to be the anchor of your team. I’d take a guy who’s also elite at defense and excellent at rebounding like Bamba, or an elite rebounder who has all the tools to be sufficient at defense like Ayton over JJJ.

These are all very valid points.

But I do wonder:

Does being a mediocre rebounder at 18 on a college team with 2 other big men, mean he'll still be a mediocre rebounder at 25, in the NBA as his team's starting Center?

I honestly don't know.

[thr3ep01nte4]

Bamba plays alongside Dylan O. Ayton playes alongside Ristic. Wendell Carter and Bagley play together. There’s no excuse.

Remember Al Horford going against Dwight Howard and Al Horford against Tristan Thompson? It doesn’t matter how many shots you alter. If you don’t secure the rebound, you don’t eliminate possessions.

[Jamaaliver]

Bamba plays alongside Dylan O. Ayton playes alongside Ristic. Wendell Carter and Bagley play together. There’s no excuse.

Remember Al Horford going against Dwight Howard and Al Horford against Tristan Thompson? It doesn’t matter how many shots you alter. If you don’t secure the rebound, you don’t eliminate possessions.

Yeah. Sounds right.

But I still wonder...

Horford was actually a consistently good rebounder under Woodson and Drew. Much less so under Budenholzer and Stevens.
Even in college, Horford rebounded well enough under Billy Donovan.

Regarding JJJ, I simply wonder if this is a result of Tom Izzo's scheme. Also, the kid only plays 22 minutes per game.

I'm skeptical of the actual numbers so early in his development.

[kg01]

Bamba plays alongside Dylan O. Ayton playes alongside Ristic. Wendell Carter and Bagley play together. There’s no excuse.

Remember Al Horford going against Dwight Howard and Al Horford against Tristan Thompson? It doesn’t matter how many shots you alter. If you don’t secure the rebound, you don’t eliminate possessions.

Yeah. Sounds right.

But I still wonder...

Horford was actually a consistently good rebounder under Woodson and Drew. Much less so following the pec tears.
Even in college, Horford rebounded well enough under Billy Donovan.

Regarding JJJ, I simply wonder if this is a result of Tom Izzo's scheme. Also, the kid only plays 22 minutes per game.

I'm skeptical of the actual numbers so early in his development.

This is what you meant to say.

[thr3ep01nte4]

Horford was actually a consistently good rebounder under Woodson and Drew. Much less so under Budenholzer and Stevens.
Even in college, Horford rebounded well enough under Billy Donovan.

Regarding JJJ, I simply wonder if this is a result of Tom Izzo's scheme. Also, the kid only plays 22 minutes per game.

I'm skeptical of the actual numbers so early in his development.

For rebounding, I value more about the rebounding rate than the actual number. Actual numbers are heavily influenced by playing time and the pace.

Al Horford in college played 25 mpg and had a 17% rebounding rate. In the NBA, he played 33 mpg for the Hawks and had a 15.4% (8.3% o-board, 22.3% d-board). For an elite rebounder, the rebounding rate should be around 20% (10% o-board, 30% d-board), e.g., Gobert, Towns, Drummond etc. And normally as the player gets older, the rebounding rate tends to decline. Al Horford was at 18% as a rookie, and 12.4% in his last year as a Hawk. Here is the link to the data by BBREF: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01.html#advanced::none.

In college, you basically play against inferior competition. It's not likely that your rebounding rate would go up in the pros. Jaren Jackson has rebounding rate now at 14.9% (8.3% o, 19.7% d). It's highly doubtful that he will rise to the elite rebounding level. Similar example is Myles Turner, who spent his 18-yo season at Texas. Turner had a 16.7% (7.2% o, 24.9% d) rebounding rate in college. In the NBA, Turner's rebounding rate basically stays the same for three years so far at 13.2% (5.9% o, 20.3% d).

[Jamaaliver]

For rebounding, I value more about the rebounding rate than the actual number. Actual numbers are heavily influenced by playing time and the pace.

In college, you basically play against inferior competition. It's not likely that your rebounding rate would go up in the pros. Jaren Jackson has rebounding rate now at 14.9% (8.3% o, 19.7% d). It's highly doubtful that he will rise to the elite rebounding level.

Nice.

Can you look up the collegiate rebounding rates of Horford based on each year?

Did the rebound rate increase from year 1 to year 2 to year 3?

Can you do the same for John Collins

My guess is that each player drastically increased their rebounding rate after their freshman season.

If JJJ were to stay in college and increase his rebounding rate, would that portend a better rebounder in the pros.

[Jamaaliver]

But I still wonder...

Horford was actually a consistently good rebounder under Woodson and Drew. Much less so following the pec tears.

Ummm...yeah. That probably played a role. I've read a few places that Horford under CMB and CBS now defends much more on the perimeter guarding PnR ball handlers and closing out on shooters than the old days. This often leads to him being out of position for defensive rebounds.

I wonder if JJJ would be affected similarly in our system.

[kg01]

But I still wonder...

Horford was actually a consistently good rebounder under Woodson and Drew. Much less so following the pec tears.

Ummm...yeah. That probably played a role. I've read a few places that Horford under CMB and CBS now defends much more on the perimeter guarding PnR ball handlers and closing out on shooters than the old days. This often leads to him being out of position for defensive rebounds.

I wonder if JJJ would be affected similarly in our system.

No need to even think about it since we won't be drafting him.

Next question.

[Jamaaliver]

No need to even think about it since we won't be drafting him.

Next question.

[Jamaaliver]

Bold prediction:

At least two of the players listed below will be drafted by/for the Hawks this summer.

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[Jamaaliver]

ESPN Draft Expert's take on JJJ:

At 6-foot-11 and 242 pounds, with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, it’s very likely that Jackson will see significant minutes at center in the NBA as his promising frame fills out, rather than at the 4, as he mostly does in college at the moment. Jackson’s ability to space the floor (44 percent from 3; 79 percent from the line), block shots (5.9 per 40 minutes), switch on every screen and, increasingly, put the ball on the floor from the perimeter make him an ideal fit for the modern NBA.
He has significant upside to grow into as well, as he’s the youngest player currently projected to be drafted. Jackson is the exact type of player the Cavs sorely need on their roster right now, but he’d be a terrific building block to have regardless of what LeBron James decides to do.

Amico Hoops

[Spud2nique]

Bold prediction:

At least two of the players listed below will be drafted by/for the Hawks this summer.

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If it’s Shamet and Brunson I get to punch you in the arm? Deal?

[Spud2nique]

Ummm...yeah. That probably played a role. I've read a few places that Horford under CMB and CBS now defends much more on the perimeter guarding PnR ball handlers and closing out on shooters than the old days. This often leads to him being out of position for defensive rebounds.

I wonder if JJJ would be affected similarly in our system.

No need to even think about it since we won't be drafting him.

Next question.

KG I swear if you jinxed us and we end up drafting JJJ it’s on you because of this jinxy butt post!

[MaceCase]

No need to even think about it since we won't be drafting him.

Next question.

KG I swear if you jinxed us and we end up drafting JJJ it’s on you because of this jinxy butt post!

Kenny G can give himself an out by saying unless the Hawks fall back enough or trades back for more picks.

[Spud2nique]

As a franchise, we need to go for a homer in this draft..no singles, doubles or triples. We are one of the only franchises that haven’t had a real superstar since Nique, no disrespect to Mutombo and JJ. We need a bonified star! I can’t think of a franchise with fewer stars.

I want to be on TNT more....I want to be in the spotlight as a franchise for a minute. When is it our turn?

[kg01]

As a franchise, we need to go for a homer in this draft..no singles, doubles or triples. We are one of the only franchises that haven’t had a real superstar since Nique, no disrespect to Mutombo and JJ. We need a bonified star! I can’t think of a franchise with fewer stars.

I want to be on TNT more....I want to be in the spotlight as a franchise for a minute. When is it our turn?

If you believe this, then you need to drop a certain dad-bod rockin' forward down your board. He's gonna be small-forward wHorford. Nice player to have but not the battleship we need.

[Jamaaliver]

As a franchise, we need to go for a homer in this draft..no singles, doubles or triples...I want to be in the spotlight as a franchise for a minute. When is it our turn?

Understandable...I'd be okay with a couple of triples, though. If we don't have a shot at Ayton, trade back for multiple top 12 picks and fill the roster with young studs.

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If it’s Shamet and Brunson I get to punch you in the arm? Deal?