Post#1604 » by King Ken » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:20 am
Comparison Test: This is when I compare their style of play, talent level, readiness at this particular time and rookie impact. Please note, some guys get way better during pre-draft and workout team. John Collins really showed range potential in his pre-draft time and in year 2, has showed tremendous 3pt% potential. Donovan Mitchell reached his expected peak 3P% in year 1 by making tremendous improvement. Personality test, work ethic, internal drive, vision, team, organizational fit, personnel, vet leadership and willingness to learn, and coaching greatly matters. It can really boost a prospects ceiling like the Hawks, Clippers and Nets for example or sink a prospects ceiling like the Suns, Magic and Pistons till D. Casey joined.
Let's start: 1-10 prospects on my big board.
1. Zion - There is no comparison in the history of the game for Zion. Offensively, he is one of the best we have ever seen. Defensively, he is one of the best we have seen as a prospect.
style of play - His style of play is clearly like an overaggressive combo guard. Similar to a Westbrook. He loves to post up smaller players and take larger players off the dribble. He has an ability to go skinny on his spin moves and his movements are swift and tight. His agility in the air and on the ground is down right impressive and the amount of torque he gets off the bounce is likely never been reached by others.
Defensively, his style is aggressive. He likes to take risk, especially when around the perimeter. Has a tendency to reach and get caught standing but his tremendous ability to make up ground. With Zion, you have to understand angles because he can take them away unlike anyone else in this class outside of Clarke and maybe in general, Shawn Marion. His shot blocking is actually quite great. His ability to impact the attacker from even attempting the shot really puts Gobert and Ben Wallace pressure on the offense. At times, you see the lack of standing reach but for the most part, it's difficult because he is so strong and tough to get position on and it will only get hard as he gains experience and better tutelage. I like to say he reminds me of Ben Wallace defensively. I still think he is a better defender than an offensive player at the next level. I think he is more of a #2 but he won't be stop in the NBA anyway so it doesn't matter.
Talent Level- It's really tough to compare anyone to Zion in this area. He isn't the most talented offensively player. He clearly isn't the most skilled. But he is extremely gifted and doesn't show many flaws.
NBA readiness and rookie impact - He is clearly ready, we all know that. It depends where he goes on how much he will average as a rookie. But I see him being the rare 6 tier. That's impacting points, steals, blocks, assists, rebounds, and for a big FG%. For a wing/guard, it's FTA and FT%. Guys who do this have rare impact. Zion off the ball expertise is where I see more work needed, shooting of course is a weakness and stamina. Some of this will improve with NBA coaching and the NBA training but the off the ball stuff is important and where coaches earn their check.
I will keep it short from now on. Zion is just rare.
2t. R.J. is another player who there is no legit comparison for. I looked across the database in the last 30 years, no one is an elite tier scoring potential with elite tier passing as well as a + rebounder. The closest player is who I used to compare him to, Kobe Bean Bryant. The other is Pistol Pete Maravich.
His style of play on offense is very unattractive with flashes of beauty. Some will say it's Harden like and he just gets it done. I think his game is probably beautiful but everyone knows he wants to shoot mid range jumpers or drive to the basket and in the NCAAs, they can really take the beauty out of things if you aren't shooting or showing elite athletic ability.
He does do a lot of Kobe like things. He is the best slipper I've seen since Kobe. No one just finds holes in a defense just to get a chance to score like him. No one has that Mamba mentality to chuck ish like him either. You can see a lot of Kobe in him. Similar level athletes too. Kobe's more explosive to me but both are great athletes. Defense is something he has potential in but he needs a lot of work. When he locks in a common phase with R.J.
Talent Level/NBA readiness and rookie impact - He is way more skilled than anyone else in the NCAA's that I've seen this year. He is the only one in this draft I've seen close to Luka from a skill stance from a wing in a very long time. Some will say what about Tatum but Tatum not this good at scoring right now. He could use a lot more polish. He is not polished the way Luka was. He will take some time but should still be a Day 1 impact guy.
2t. Ja is still #2. Ja is a blend of multiple players for me. His explosiveness and ability to rebound from the guard position is like Westbrook as a prospect. He is built like Fox. He passing vision and feel is a lot like Trae Young although he doesn't have the same floor game and BBIQ. His ability to attack the basket is similar to Dennis Schroder. His PnR proficiency will be beyond elite from the jump.
His style of play on offense is a lot like Dennis Schroder, similar BBIQ, feel for the offensive game and how he attacks and shoots like Dennis. With the explosiveness and athletic ability of Westbrook and the passing feel and vision of Trae Young. Does not have elite end to end speed of Dennis, Fox, or Westbrook but can finish like Russ. His first step is beyond elite. His ability to pass anytime makes him one of the scariest PnR PG prospects I've ever seen and truly, the most in all honesty. His ability to rebound on offense is scary as well as he is a foul drawing machine. He can play change of pace and change the tempo which is something you see only from true PGs but his decision making and stubbornness can get in his way.
Defensively, he isn't much outside of stats. Great PG rebounder, excellent at getting steals because all he really plays is the passing lanes and getting blocks. His game is dedicated to stats on defense, not impact. Like Dennis and Russ, good on D when he locks in but he rarely locks in and I wouldn't count on it as well. Plays at a mid level motor on both ends but his teammates love, love, love him. He always seems to have belief in them and that's a great trait.
Talent Level/NBA readiness and rookie impact - He will be 1st team all rookie with Zion and R.J. He will score around 15-17/7 rebounds and 7 assists per game. Not to mention be in the top half of blocks and steals for a PG and get some fans who will talk about him being an All Star but not a realistic one. Elite PG prospect like R.J. is an elite SG one.
4. Reddish - The comparison is OBVIOUS and Cam might be slightly better at this stage. It's Paul George. The only ones who say otherwise want him to drop to them. Their college stats were similar when you balance the margins in terms of comparisons.
His style of play on offense is a lot like Giannis in Europe. I don't care what no one says, he moves extremely smooth and covers a lot of ground quickly. He continues to pop off the screen for me. He still hasn't grown into his body. He doesn't have the explosiveness but his agility for a man his size is rare. Further along as a playmaker than stats indicate. Being on a bad team hurts his numbers and he is raw. Defensively, he is a major work in progress but he does have a good motor. Good at playing the passing lanes and has decent defensive instincts.
He is like PG at the same stage in every way. Just a tad further than Paul as a FR than Paul as a SO. I really don't care to go into more details. The eye test, data, and comparison test passed in flying colors.
5. Bol - We all know there is no one like Bol Bol. KP is the only one with his charts but his euro stats were meh while Bol's small sample size was crazy good.
His style of play on offense is a low motor extremely skilled big who has a tremendous translatable face up game with tremendous range. His back to the basket was good in college but I doubt it will translate as it's not that quick but his excellent footwork makes him at least a threat in back the basket. His ability to shoot short, mid, long and styles of pull-up, catch and shoot, isolation, and off the dribble makes him an extremely lethal offensive big. Even though his form is poor, his release is fairly quick and his length is generational. He will be a 20+ ppg scorer with ease in the NBA. Healthy or unheathy. Rare generational scoring ability from a big. He is also a very fluid athlete for his size that has at least average explosiveness.
His style of play on defense is what you expect from someone with a low motor. He doesn't like to move much outside of the lane. He is a drop defender but his rim and paint protection is real as is his shot blocking due to his athletic ability and length. Just don't expect much more than that. His low motor just doesn't make him a great fit for the modern NBA.
Talent Level/NBA readiness and rookie impact - He will make a larger impact than Reddish as a rookie but he will show you who he is and can he get better is the question or is he the Black KP? That said, he has franchise player potential and that will be appealing to most of the 4-15 teams. What's his injury status? Is he ready is to play NBA Basketball is the question? Will he work hard? Does he want it? This is for the NBA teams to answer, not us. KP made some jumps each year, can Bol do the same?
6. K.Z. Okpala - My comparison chart failed my #6 prospect. It compared him to Mo Harkless. Said nope to Giannis, Odom, even Tobias Harris. It looked like Okpala as a better player less potential than Mo Harkless. This is where my eye test has failed me.
I still hold the eye test dearly as anyone would but the data wasn't in my favor with Okpala and I decided to stick to my guns but the comparison chart is fairly good. It rarely fails me but it has for some prospects. Russell Westbrook, Gerald Henderson, Hasheem Thabeet, Evan Turner, and Ben McLemore. It really hasn't in the last three classes as we just simply have a lot more data as fans than we had in 2010.
Talent Level/NBA readiness and rookie impact - He is going to be in the G-League. No doubt about it. But his potential is much higher than any data chart or comparison chart. Guys just don't move like that with his work ethic and not become good pros. He has the tools and the measureables and he is smart and a hard worker for someone who's also at Stanford. Guys like him who are agile, smart, can handle the rock, covers a lot of ground in their strides, takes guys off the dribble fairly easy without seemingly looking that quick at doing it are doing it because they are great long strider athletes. Those guys rarely fail. He is 225 and hasn't grown into his body. He can be 240. Don't count him out. He can be special. I will move him down from here but I am still sky high on him long term.
7. Brandon Clarke - Clarke is a tough comparison for many because he is not a NBA PF. Clarke is 215 with the potential to be an optimal 215. While some will say, look at guys like Grant, Grant can't guard wings consistently and he has a 7'3 wingspan with a plus standing reach. Isn't laterally quick enough. Clarke is a defender who can guard 1-4 and consistently guard 2-3 and spot guard at 4. Clarke for me was extremely easy because I seen him as a future SF. He is like Demarre Carroll in terms of elite movement, BBIQ, execution, shooter and off the ball defensive skills. While being the athlete that Shawn Marion is with better finishing skills. Clarke also has good passing vision and instincts.
His style of play on offense is all about movement, BBIQ, timing, agility and more movement. On the ball, he is a tough cover because of his tremendous first step and decent handle. He has a feathery soft touch and he is excellent from 17 in which is tremendous in terms of shooting potential for most trainers. Isn't really that skilled so you are not going to see many moves from him. It's the simple jab, pump fakes, basic baller package but it's his first step and effectiveness with it that puts defenses in a tough position. Decent form for a big, miles better than at San Jose St but still average tier for the NBA. Should get 10-12 per24 off of movement, hustle and athleticism alone. Doesn't really set screens, a lot of flash screening from him but is an excellent roll man. Tremendous finisher. Tremendous awareness. I think it will translate. Elite offensive rebounder for a SF. His offensive ceiling is very high which is surprising for someone his age at SF. He will be a wealthy man's DMC at SF on offense.
His defensive potential at SF is generational. You are talking plus plus lateral quickness, elite communicator for his level and will translate in the NBA, plus plus at switching, plus plus at cutting off hedges, plus plus awareness, plus plus at closing out, elite athlete. Quick leaper and fast twitch, great defensive speed, can protect others. Can protect the paint, perimeter and the rim. Rare defender. Good defensive rebounder. Just can cover a lot of ground and efficiently. The best college defender I've seen. This is where he mixes the best of Marion and Carroll. He will not take long to translate on defense. On offense, different ballgame.
Talent Level/NBA readiness and rookie impact - On defense, you think someone like Okogie with his athletic ability and length is amazing, his guy makes him look like child's play. That said, it will take some time on offense. His career expected peak is .318 from three and DMC's was .319. DMC has been a career .362 from three and 74% from the FT line and become a reliable shooter. Which is better than Marion's .331 but not close to his 81% FA but Marion's three point peaks were in the high 30% and let's be clear, he didn't play in today's NBA. He did it when shooting threes wasn't look at like that till D'Antoni came to PHX which you saw a spike in Marion's % and even then, it's nothing like 2019. My guess is Clarke will average 10.6/7/2/2 BLK/1.5 STL in 24 MPG mainly with mins at SF if the team is smart. His percentages should be high close to the basket.
8. Jaxson Hayes - Hayes comparison is one of the unique bigs in this class. For me, he is a blend of Robin Lopez, Clint Capela and John Collins with shades of AD. Not a perfect blend or the best of but just has some parts of his game from those four.
His style of play on offense is all about movement, agility, his hands, his soft shooting touch and finishing. Think John Collins lite. He doesn't have John's feel for the game or for scoring and is such a negative with the ball that he is limited to finishing like Gobert/Capela for the most part. He does have a soft touch like Collins and shows signs he wouldn't be a 100% waste in the post-up. Lack of handles and passing is an issue for Hayes. His offensive rebounding reminds me of a freshman Robin Lopez. Once he grows into his body, he will need to really become a good boxout guy because he doesn't have a feel for rebounds at all. I think he has the potential but he is really going to have to do it.
His style of play on defense is a lot like Capela in that he is used to drop but his ability to defend is space is important when looking at his projection and his biggest advantage is his frame, coordination and fluidity is like AD. That means A LOT in terms of long term ability to defend in space and guard both 4 and 5s down the road. Once again, his rebounding is like Robin Lopez. He is raw mainly due to experience and size but he is very talented.
Talent Level/NBA readiness and rookie impact - Due to his talent, I expect him to at least see the floor but his body is not ready yet and he is still growing. His potential is tremendous as he has 3/D potential while being an elite potential finisher. Somewhat like Zach Collins and JJJ. Closer to Collins than JJJ due to readiness, talent wise, closer to JJJ. He should be a top 10 pick without question. I do see him getting mins at the 4 and 5. 20 mpg but he should get 30 mpg in year 2. He is a potential based guy. Don't expect much in year 1. Not ready for the NBA yet on both ends but don't count him out. Coaching and role can go along way for him.
9. DeAndre Hunter - The most polished prospect in this class is Mr. Hunter. His comparison is Otto Porter Jr. Both players were polished out of college. Both players have similar potential as prospects. Both are talented players with good height and wingspan for position.
His style of play on offense is about doing the little things to help the guys around him, movement off the ball, shooting, feel for the game, execution and taking advantage of mismatches when given the opportunity. His game is a tad different than Otto as a propsect. Otto has mid tier aggressiveness. Hunter is low tier. He is not aggressive but that doesn't mean he is not passionate. He is extremely passionate and it shows up possession by possession. Makes the right plays, cuts, moves, passes, dribbles, and makes his teammates better. His ability to shoot and space the floor spreads the floor for others and he is tough to defend. Does have Otto's explosiveness but is more athletic and a tad quicker.
His style of play on defense is a lot like Tony Allen in terms of it's conservative but tough and it's demanding as well. He defends in space and on the ball very well. He plays at an even tempo and can take it up a notch if needed. He really feels the game well on defense and forces the offense into tough plays. Just a smart kid who is always comminating and very athetlic. I feel he would be stronger in a system with other strong defenders but he is not a risk taker. Most of his steals will be legit. He will make you earn those buckets, every single one. A player who truly has 3/D ability and talent and like Tony Allen, he has ++ weight for his height which gives him flexiblity to both 2+3 but also 4 if needed. His veristiliaty will come in handy in the NBA.
Talent Level/NBA readiness and rookie impact - We saw Brodgon as ROY. I wouldn't be surprised if he is 1st team All Rookie. A legit 13-5-4 will be ideal for most teams getting top end perimeter defense. Has defensive anchor potential which also matters.
10. Darius Garland - I won't be the best person on Garland. Even after watching about 3 games of his in it's entirety, I need more time and tape, Other will be better for you with Garland. I like his talent, he has some Jeff Teague mixed with Mike Conley for me but I do not feel confident enough for him.