Hawks improved on defense, but struggling to score

[Jamaaliver]

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[Jamaaliver]

Do the Hawks need to start sharing the ball?

The Hawks are winning games but passing less than any team in a decade.

So far, the 2 PG experiment appears to be working. New Hawk Dejounte Murray is averaging 22.6 points, 8.1 assists, 6.5 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game. The team’s defense has been better by about 3.0 points per 100 possessions and the Hawks are off to a 7-4 start (roughly a 52-win pace).

However, the team’s offense has been worse by about the same margin (2.6 points per 100) as the defense has improved and, stylistically, they have morphed into a fairly bizarre outlier. So far this season, the Hawks are averaging just 240 passes per game, lowest in the league by an enormous margin and the lowest total since player tracking statistics became available in the 2013-14 season.



As you can see the team’s passes per game have dropped steadily over the past two seasons and this year they’re averaging about 30 fewer passes per game than they did two years ago. It hasn’t depressed their assist totals which have climbed incrementally over the same span. But the product is a somewhat warped approach that relies a lot on the ability of Murray and Young to create advantages off the dribble.

This is just one possession, and a fairly quick one, but look how little movement there is. Young brings the ball up the court and runs a high pick-and-roll while three of his teammates stand and watch without moving at all.

NBA CourtOptix tracks the percentage of a team’s offensive possessions that include at least four frontcourt passes. At 9.1 percent, the Hawks aren’t just last in the league, they’re last in the league by a mile. The Los Angeles Lakers, at 12.6 percent, have the next lowest percentage and are the only other team in the league below 13 percent. Eleven teams have a percentage that is more than double that of the Hawks.

The Hawks rank in the top half of the league in assists per game but so many of them are coming after a single action and a single pass from either Young or Murray.

Young is currently third in the league in shot attempts after a touch length of six seconds or more, Murray is ninth. At 190 such shots combined, they have more than 25 entire teams. And it’s not as though those shots have been particularly efficient. They rank 25th (Murray) and 27th (Young) in effective field goal percentage among the 27 players who have attempted at least 50 such shots this season. Combined, they’re posting an effective field goal percentage of 36.2 on shots they’re taking, on average, 18.3 times per game.

I don’t want to be too hard on the Hawks at this point because what they’re doing is working to some degree. They are above average on offense, their defense is much improved and their record is strong to this point. But it’s also very early in the season, only two of their seven wins have come against teams with a winning record and their offense seems to be lacking the dynamism and versatility they made need for a deep playoff run.

The Step Back

[Jamaaliver]

The arrival of Dejounte Murray has moved Young into more off-ball situations. However, Young has posted a plus-13.6 net rating when both All-Star guards are on the floor and a minus-26.4 when Murray goes to the bench, per Cleaning The Glass.

Young is now down to shooting 37.4% from the floor and 31% from three-point range – a far cry from the 44.7% overall and 36.4% from deep that he averaged over the last three seasons. We are only 11 games into the Murray-Young experiment and while the underlying numbers have been mixed, the result and overarching theme has been winning.

Young’s game has always had some level of volatility. He also said that he is feeling fine despite some bumps and bruises and has seen his efficiency improve as the season progresses before. But, for the Hawks to truly reach their ceiling, they need him to get back to his usual efficient self sooner rather than later.

Even if there are more bumps in the road ahead, they are banking wins now as a buffer.

Soaring Down South

[Geaux_Hawks]

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This is an interesting stat. I didn't know this existed.

Really puts into perspective how consistently a team can get stops. Wonder if this is tracked daily or weekly.

[Jamaaliver]

Major mid-range reliance

While it’s buzzy to maximize attempts at the rim, from three, and from the free throw line in today’s NBA, it’s important to state that teams’ shot selection largely depend on the players’ strengths and weaknesses. Modern defenses have morphed to focus on defending those same areas that offenses are looking to exploit, but this Hawks team looks intent on zagging while others are zigging.

Upon acquiring Dejounte Murray, the Hawks have cemented their identity as a mid-range self-creation reliant attack. And newly extended holdover De’Andre Hunter also has many of the same tendencies in the shots he prefers as well as the spots on the floor he prefers.

The Hawks are tied for last in the NBA in three-point rate, with just 30.5% of their field goal attempts coming from long range. However, the Hawks are tops in the league in attempts from outside 10 feet but inside the arc, attempting 24.6% of their attempts from mid-range. Additionally, the Hawks are currently number one in pull up shot frequency, with over 30% of their attempts coming from off the dribble creation.

The three main pull up threats are largely cashing in on mid-range attempts as well, even as Trae Young struggles from other areas. Young, Murray, and Hunter rank in the 53rd, 69th and 76th percentiles respectively shooting from that area despite the high volume and difficulty of shooting from there. But none of the trio top 46% effective field goal percentage from that range despite the relative efficiency there which helps show the upper limit of this kind of shooting mix.

A shot diet of this type is easier to get clean looks and raise the offensive floor against teams with great rim protectors as compared to one more dependent on getting to the rim, but it also ultimately caps the Hawks’ ceiling — one reason behind the sagging offensive numbers this season.

Schematically, little has changed. The Hawks remain tops in the league in pick-and-roll play type frequency according to the NBA’s second spectrum tracking. Whereas previous years, the pick-and-roll was centralized around Young and Young alone, Murray has stepped in and ran a similar percentage when he’s on the ball.

Of course, the star player is having a rough shooting start to his campaign, and a lot of that is driven by Trae Young’s difficulty finishing in crowded space thus far as discussed below. So while we know Young will eventually shoot better than 43% effective field goal percentage, the structural tendencies of the high-volume perimeter players will make it exceedingly difficult for the Hawks to repeat their second ranked offense from a year ago.

Currently, Trae Young is shooting a brutally low 41% on shots at the rim, which places him in the single lowest percentile of NBA players. Young is a good finisher at the rim despite his size, but the effect of the dearth of shooters around him means help defenders can stay home and contest shots.

Additionally, the Hawks offense has appeared bogged down and lacking the ball movement and efficient play finishing from seasons past. Atlanta is dead last in points stemming from C&S situations as well as the percentage of points coming from three-pointers per the NBA’s tracking numbers.

Peachtree Hoops

[Jamaaliver]

We're at least in the upper right quadrant right now.

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[D21]

Six Games Played:

We're at least in the upper right quadrant right now.

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They are not better than 2 weeks ago, just a little bit better on defense but less on offense

EDIT: it's actually a bit better today
13th on offense / 6th on defense / 8th overall (tied with TOR)

[jayu70]

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?s=20&t=KUT7MrGigIwqJOF3-k9etQ

[Jamaaliver]

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[Jamaaliver]

Great company to be in...

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[Jamaaliver]

We are regressing on offense:

[D21]

We are regressing on offense

Unfortunately, I see sometimes the thing I feared: Trae and Murray playing more like in, or to be in, the All Star Game, than really trying to create open shots for the other guys. But it's a coaching problem first

Maybe once Bogi is back, the offense will improve

[Jamaaliver]

This is impressive, having two guys so high on this list. Word is one of the new assistants has really emphasized this tactic to CC and John.

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[Jamaaliver]

This means, what? Close wins and blow out losses?

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[jayu70]

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?s=20&t=h5RT2_LTaBvT-cI4OhF15Q

[azuresou1]

From a talent standpoint, it's clear we'll need to make some moves. We have next to no spacing in our starting lineup now. DJM is a poor outside shooter. Capela and Okongwu both have zero range. Most importantly, John Collins's ability to shoot has completely disappeared after his finger injury. The decision to play through it and subsequently never let it heal is IMO one of the worst decisions the franchise has made in years.

Compounding this - Nate McMillan is a garbage offensive coach. He amplifies all our skill deficiencies by not running any offensive sets. Between this massive long-time deficiency, his nepotism, and him literally stating it's not his job to develop players, I would have fired his ass.

In terms of next steps, I would shop JC for another forward who can shoot. His rim-running and interior scoring presence are much less valuable to us than to other teams, and hopefully other teams might think his poor outside shooting is just a fluke.

[D21]

This means, what? Close wins and blow out losses?

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Maybe if they were 14-2 or 13-3, but at 10-6, it's just losses bigger than wins.
Had two close wins with OT, but there were also wins with big margin.

From a talent standpoint, it's clear we'll need to make some moves. We have next to no spacing in our starting lineup now. DJM is a poor outside shooter. Capela and Okongwu both have zero range. Most importantly, John Collins's ability to shoot has completely disappeared after his finger injury. The decision to play through it and subsequently never let it heal is IMO one of the worst decisions the franchise has made in years.

Compounding this - Nate McMillan is a garbage offensive coach. He amplifies all our skill deficiencies by not running any offensive sets. Between this massive long-time deficiency, his nepotism, and him literally stating it's not his job to develop players, I would have fired his ass.

In terms of next steps, I would shop JC for another forward who can shoot. His rim-running and interior scoring presence are much less valuable to us than to other teams, and hopefully other teams might think his poor outside shooting is just a fluke.

We need to see how this team plays once Bogi is back, and decide what needs to change after a stretch. But clearly, Nate is still in my mind a good defensive assistant, but not creative enough on offense to be a top head coach.

[Jamaaliver]

From a talent standpoint, it's clear we'll need to make some moves. We have next to no spacing in our starting lineup now. DJM is a poor outside shooter. Capela and Okongwu both have zero range. Most importantly, John Collins's ability to shoot has completely disappeared after his finger injury. The decision to play through it and subsequently never let it heal is IMO one of the worst decisions the franchise has made in years.

Compounding this - Nate McMillan is a garbage offensive coach. He amplifies all our skill deficiencies by not running any offensive sets. Between this massive long-time deficiency, his nepotism, and him literally stating it's not his job to develop players, I would have fired his ass.

In terms of next steps, I would shop JC for another forward who can shoot. His rim-running and interior scoring presence are much less valuable to us than to other teams, and hopefully other teams might think his poor outside shooting is just a fluke.

It's good to hear your voice around these parts, Mike.

It's been too long.

[CP War Hawks]

The rotation of Capela-OO, JC-JJ basically being horrible out there explains it mostly. Without the rook to help out it would probably be historically bad. JH not providing much, no Bogi it's hit rock bottom, but again they are in a great spot and it can get better with some transactions.

[Jamaaliver]

I'm having a bit of trouble deciphering this at first glance.

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