2018-19 Atlanta Hawks Season Wins Prediction Thread

[swijayas]

30 wins

[ChokeFasncists]

TraeLin looks good, 34 if mostly healthy, plz!

[Roy Tarpley]

Taking predictions until 10/17, before start of season.

Although the roster is still subject to change, I think it's close enough to ready that we can stop the arm-chair playmaking and weekend warrior jousting and put your +1s where your mouth is. The winner will get a bag of +1s in 2025 and an autographed picture of Jon Koncak and Tree Rollins.

Rules:

- Enter your season win total prediction on this thread. You can change your prediction as many times as you want before the season starts but your last prediction before the start of the season will be the one that counts.

- If you waffle by providing a range of wins (e.g., "Anywhere from 15-30 wins), I will used the average and round up (e.g, 22.5 = 23 wins).

- If you equivocate with a lot of jibber jabber but don't provide a definitive number or range, you will not be included.

Good luck to all!

I will periodically tabulate the predictions throughout the pre-season.

Predictions as of 10/15

graymule 41
sprost 39
cbssports July 20 sportsline 35
ChokeFasncists 34
GoodDayLA 32
steady 32
swijayas 30
Roy Tarpley 30
macd-gm 28
fivethirtyeight.com CARMELO August 14 early (and October 15 late) prediction 28
British Sport Book Sky Bet 27
ioeve 27
Bet online.ag 27
ESPN RPM Kevin Pelton 26
birdlives_ma 25
tbhawksfan1 25
jayu70 25
Westgate Superbook August 6 24
ATL Boy 23
~Wretch~ 23
Peachtree Hoops Writers panel (10 writers) 23.3
Robo_Claw 22
ESPN Summer Forecast Panel 22
13th Man 21
Jamaaliver 19
Geaux_Hawks 18

Average: 26.2 (916/35)

[Jamaaliver]

After discussing it over with many of my advisors and taking our injury situation into account early.

Spoiler:

“The Philly model is not our plan,” Hawks general manager Travis Schlenk said Wednesday. “We want to be competitive.”

Be advised that Schlenk’s definition of “competitive” mightn’t coincide with yours. He referred to his time at Golden State. From 2008 through 2011, the Warriors won 29, 26, 36 and 23 games, which wasn’t quite Philly-style tanking.

That’s apparently Schlenk’s model for the Hawks – win 30 or so games, maybe have a sniff at the playoffs, keep your draft picks and hit big when you exercise them. “If we miss out (on postseason play) one year,” he said, “it’s not the end of the world.”

myAJC -- 2017

I am upping my predicted win total for the Hawks to...


21 victories.

Read on Twitter

[Roy Tarpley]

FINAL

Although the roster is still subject to change, I think it's close enough to ready that we can stop the arm-chair playmaking and weekend warrior jousting and put your +1s where your mouth is. The winner will get a bag of +1s in 2025 and an autographed picture of Jon Koncak and Tree Rollins.

Rules:

- Enter your season win total prediction on this thread. You can change your prediction as many times as you want before the season starts but your last prediction before the start of the season will be the one that counts.

- If you waffle by providing a range of wins (e.g., "Anywhere from 15-30 wins), I will used the average and round up (e.g, 22.5 = 23 wins).

- If you equivocate with a lot of jibber jabber but don't provide a definitive number or range, you will not be included.

Good luck to all!

I will periodically tabulate the predictions throughout the pre-season.

Predictions as of 10/17

graymule 41
sprost 39
cbssports July 20 sportsline 35
ChokeFasncists 34
GoodDayLA 32
steady 32
swijayas 30
Roy Tarpley 30
macd-gm 28
fivethirtyeight.com CARMELO August 14 early (and October 15 late) prediction 28
British Sport Book Sky Bet 27
ioeve 27
Bet online.ag 27
ESPN RPM Kevin Pelton 26
birdlives_ma 25
tbhawksfan1 25
jayu70 25
Westgate Superbook August 6 24
Bovada 24
ATL Boy 23
~Wretch~ 23
Peachtree Hoops Writers panel (10 writers) 23.3
Robo_Claw 22
ESPN Summer Forecast Panel 22
13th Man 21
Jamaaliver 21
Geaux_Hawks 18

Average: 26.2 (942/36)

[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

[jayu70]

Update time....whose predictions are still in play?

Predictions as of 10/17

graymule 41
sprost 39
cbssports July 20 sportsline 35
ChokeFasncists 34
GoodDayLA 32
steady 32
swijayas 30
Roy Tarpley 30
macd-gm 28
fivethirtyeight.com CARMELO August 14 early (and October 15 late) prediction 28
British Sport Book Sky Bet 27
ioeve 27
Bet online.ag 27
ESPN RPM Kevin Pelton 26
birdlives_ma 25
tbhawksfan1 25
jayu70 25
Westgate Superbook August 6 24
Bovada 24
ATL Boy 23
~Wretch~ 23
Peachtree Hoops Writers panel (10 writers) 23.3
Robo_Claw 22
ESPN Summer Forecast Panel 22
13th Man 21
Jamaaliver 21
Geaux_Hawks 18

Average: 26.2 (942/36)

Hawks are currently 11-26, 12th in EC, last is the SE.

We are 4 games from the midway point of 41 games. The next 4 games we play @Bucks, vs Heat, @Raptors, @Nets.
What will our record be 41 games in?
I predict we go 1 of 4 and end at 12-29.

Next up 12 more games until the trade deadline Feb 7th. 4 home games, 8 roadies, including a 5 game West Coast swing - with most against playoff caliber teams except Suns, Bulls and the Wiz, again.

TP and Baze should be back by mid-January, maybe?

What will our record be at the trade deadline?
I think we win 2 of the 12, if Baze and TP get back sooner rather than later, we'll win an additional 1 maybe 2 games.
My predictions: 15-38

[Vol4ever]

I will stay with my Hawsquawk prediction of 21.

[Hazer]

I’m sticking with my Hawksquawk prediction of 28 as well.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

Here were the Hawksquawk predictions:


Poster Record Conference Rank # of AS/Rookie-Soph Leading Scorer Leading Rebounder Expected WL
bleachkit 70-12 1st 1 Huerter Huerter 70-12
Gray Mule 41-41 8th 2 Prince Len 41-41
Jeffery123 41-41 7th 2 Prince Len 41-41
silent 39-43 7th 2 All-Stars / 2 Prince Len 43-39
REHawksFan 38-44 8th 2 Collins Collins 35-47
thecampster 36-46 9th 2 Prince Len 36-46
Peoriabird 35-47 9th 2 Prince Len 38-44
JCDBaptist 34-48 9th 3 Prince Collins 38-44
Buzzard 33-49 11th 3 Collins Collins 33-49
Jdawgflow 32-50 10th 2 Collins Collins 31-51
marco102 31-51 10th 2 Prince Len 34-48
lethalweapon3 30-52 11th 2 Young Collins 24-58
LamarHampton 30-52 10th 2 Prince Collins 26-56
AHawks89 29-53 12th 3 Prince Collins 33-49
TheFuzz 28-54 13th 2 Prince Collins 24-58
AHF 28-54 12th 2 Young Collins 30-52
hazer 28-54 12th 1 All-Star / 2 Prince Len 32-50
Sothron 28-54 NA NA NA NA 28-54
High5 28-54 13th 2 Prince Collins 26-56
macdaddy 28-54 14th 1 AS / 1 Young Len 28-54
PSSSHHHRRR87 28-54 13th 2 Prince Len 28-54
Spud 27-55 13th 2 Prince Collins 27-55
benhillboy 27-55 12th 2 Collins Collins 27-55
Dejay 27-55 12th 2 Prince Len 27-55
JayBirdHawk 25-57 13th 2 Prince Len 28-54
Hawkitus 23-59 NA 2 Prince Len 18-64
sturt 23-59 14th 2 Prince Len 22-60
frosgrim 22-60 15th 2 Young Collins 19-63
Vol4ever 22-60 NA 2 Prince Collins 22-60
capstone 21-61 15th 2 Collins Collins 21-61
TheNorthCydeRises 21-61 14th 2 Young Collins 18-64
KB21 18-64 15th 1 Collins Collins 18-64

Not sure if anyone knows how to insert a table on here but that would help a lot with formatting. Here is how to read this:

Record = Predicted record for the season
Conference Rank = Where they fall in the East
Total Number of All-Stars + Players on the Rookie / Soph Teams
Leading Scorer = Total Points
Leading Rebounder = Total Rebounds
Expected W/L = Pythagorean Wins; the formula is G * (Tm PTS14 / (Tm PTS14 + Opp PTS14)). The formula was obtained by fitting a logistic regression model with log(Tm PTS / Opp PTS) as the explanatory variable. Using this formula for all BAA, NBA, and ABA seasons, the root mean-square error (rmse) is 3.14 wins. Using an exponent of 16.5 (a common choice), the rmse is 3.48 wins. (Note: An exponent of 10 is used for the WNBA.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

On pace now for 24.4 wins and 20 expected wins.

[Buzzard]

I think I predicted 30 wins ( give or take 2 either way ) over at the Squawk.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

I think I predicted 30 wins ( give or take 2 either way ) over at the Squawk.

You were 33 wins (see above) so very close.

[Buzzard]

I think I predicted 30 wins ( give or take 2 either way ) over at the Squawk.

You were 33 wins (see above) so very close.

TY Sir, I knew I was in that 30 range and near the top as far as positive win total goes.

[Vol4ever]

Well I guess I actually picked 22 on the Squawk. 21,22 it dont matter

[jayu70]

Update time....whose predictions are still in play?

Predictions as of 10/17

graymule 41
sprost 39
cbssports July 20 sportsline 35
ChokeFasncists 34
GoodDayLA 32
steady 32
swijayas 30
Roy Tarpley 30
macd-gm 28
fivethirtyeight.com CARMELO August 14 early (and October 15 late) prediction 28
British Sport Book Sky Bet 27
ioeve 27
Bet online.ag 27
ESPN RPM Kevin Pelton 26
birdlives_ma 25
tbhawksfan1 25
jayu70 25
Westgate Superbook August 6 24
Bovada 24
ATL Boy 23
~Wretch~ 23
Peachtree Hoops Writers panel (10 writers) 23.3
Robo_Claw 22
ESPN Summer Forecast Panel 22
13th Man 21
Jamaaliver 21
Geaux_Hawks 18

Average: 26.2 (942/36)

Hawks are currently 11-26, 12th in EC, last is the SE.

We are 4 games from the midway point of 41 games. The next 4 games we play @Bucks, vs Heat, @Raptors, @Nets.
What will our record be 41 games in?
I predict we go 1 of 4 and end at 12-29.

Next up 12 more games until the trade deadline Feb 7th. 4 home games, 8 roadies, including a 5 game West Coast swing - with most against playoff caliber teams except Suns, Bulls and the Wiz, again.

TP and Baze should be back by mid-January, maybe?

What will our record be at the trade deadline?
I think we win 2 of the 12, if Baze and TP get back sooner rather than later, we'll win an additional 1 maybe 2 games.
My predictions: 15-38

41 Games in.....12-29. Thought?

12 games to the trade deadline.

[macd-gm]

28 is possible but now seems high. We've seen glimpses but "health" of our vets will probably keep us in the low 20s.

[Spud2nique]

Update time....whose predictions are still in play?

Predictions as of 10/17

graymule 41
sprost 39
cbssports July 20 sportsline 35
ChokeFasncists 34
GoodDayLA 32
steady 32
swijayas 30
Roy Tarpley 30
macd-gm 28
fivethirtyeight.com CARMELO August 14 early (and October 15 late) prediction 28
British Sport Book Sky Bet 27
ioeve 27
Bet online.ag 27
ESPN RPM Kevin Pelton 26
birdlives_ma 25
tbhawksfan1 25
jayu70 25
Westgate Superbook August 6 24
Bovada 24
ATL Boy 23
~Wretch~ 23
Peachtree Hoops Writers panel (10 writers) 23.3
Robo_Claw 22
ESPN Summer Forecast Panel 22
13th Man 21
Jamaaliver 21
Geaux_Hawks 18

Average: 26.2 (942/36)

Hawks are currently 11-26, 12th in EC, last is the SE.

We are 4 games from the midway point of 41 games. The next 4 games we play @Bucks, vs Heat, @Raptors, @Nets.
What will our record be 41 games in?
I predict we go 1 of 4 and end at 12-29.

Next up 12 more games until the trade deadline Feb 7th. 4 home games, 8 roadies, including a 5 game West Coast swing - with most against playoff caliber teams except Suns, Bulls and the Wiz, again.

TP and Baze should be back by mid-January, maybe?

What will our record be at the trade deadline?
I think we win 2 of the 12, if Baze and TP get back sooner rather than later, we'll win an additional 1 maybe 2 games.
My predictions: 15-38

41 Games in.....12-29. Thought?

12 games to the trade deadline.

I predicted 27 on squawk. I’ll stick with that I guess but thinking around 24,25 now.

[Spud2nique]

Yup..Hazer had 28 on squawk as well.

[macd-gm]

Biggest surprises so far this season:
Bembry establishing himself
Heurter already cemented as a starter
Omari not seeing the floor at all anymore when Vince is the only backup PF roster
Being competitive in january without Baze or Prince