Mavs & Cavs Draft Pick Watch

peoriabird · Post #701 » by **peoriabird** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:21 am

I mean if New Orleans can win with that roster...Shouldn't the great one be able to will his team to victory more than one every 10 games?

personanongrata · Post #702 » by **personanongrata** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:45 am

peoriabird wrote:I mean if New Orleans can win with that roster...Shouldn't the great one be able to will his team to victory more than one every 10 games?

Not if they dont want to. They are truly tanking at a prodigious rate. I'm guessing they win one or two more games.

Post #703 » by **ATL Boy** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:13 am

Nothing would be more just than the Mavs packaging the 7th pick to us and having this shameless tanking backfire on them.

Geaux_Hawks · Post #704 » by **Geaux_Hawks** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:53 am

saloonyk8 wrote:
REHawksFan wrote:
saloonyk8 wrote:
Generally speaking the higher you draft the better prospect you can get. Even in a weak class picking 6-8 better than 12-15 in a strong class. Just look at last year man, it was a very strong class. What studs are around at 12-15?

This makes no sense. There's no way to determine that 12-15 in a very strong class is definitively worse or better than picking 6-8 in a weak class. It is highly possible that the 12th pick in a very strong and deep class ends up better than the 8th pick in a weak class. Now you could certainly argue that next year's class is no stronger than this year's class which would, if true, make a later pick next year worth less than an early pick this year. But your definitive statement that an early pick in a weak class is better than a later pick in a strong class could not be more wrong.

So I went back at looked at draft classes from 2013 on, it's very uninspiring list to say the least. There's only two definitive All Star players I noticed with Giannis and Mitchell in the picks 6-15 in 6 years worth of classes. That's 2/45. Dallas pick doesn't seem valuable in any sense with that lens.

Also makes me wonder why we aren't tanking more because we NEED another All Star and I think the odds of finding one in the top 5 are much higher.

Considering you only went back 6 years, I don't think you can fully evaluate the players over the last 2-3 years and say it's uninspiring for them. Why not open the spectrum to at least the last 10 years, in which you can find Steph Curry, DD, Heyward, PG13, Kemba, Klay, Kawhi, Vucevic(16), Dame, Drummond, Lavine, Turner, Booker, and a few of the recently drafted guys like Isaac, DSJ, Jamal Murray, Sexton, Knox, SGA, Hield, Wendell Carter, & Markannen who have some potential to be worth more than they currently are.

Just saying, there's more potential to be had if you do your homework and find the guys that can become star players.

Spud2nique · Post #705 » by **Spud2nique** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 5:53 am

peoriabird wrote:
Spud2nique wrote:Mavs just lost to Heat.. oh boy.

Can you give the rookie of the year trophy to a player that looses at th end of the season as much as the Great one does?

He looks tired and old. I’m not even hating he just looks it out there. Trae looks like he’s gettin warmed up! :nod:

peoriabird · Post #706 » by **peoriabird** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:25 am

personanongrata wrote:
peoriabird wrote:I mean if New Orleans can win with that roster...Shouldn't the great one be able to will his team to victory more than one every 10 games?

Not if they dont want to. They are truly tanking at a prodigious rate. I'm guessing they win one or two more games.

So he has been instructed to throw the games and the Pelicans management gave the opposite order?

personanongrata · Post #707 » by **personanongrata** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:24 am

peoriabird wrote:
personanongrata wrote:
peoriabird wrote:I mean if New Orleans can win with that roster...Shouldn't the great one be able to will his team to victory more than one every 10 games?

Not if they dont want to. They are truly tanking at a prodigious rate. I'm guessing they win one or two more games.

So he has been instructed to throw the games and the Pelicans management gave the opposite order?

Neither team is playing well. Both are 2-8 in their last 10 games. I'm not sure what your basis of comparison is.

REHawksFan · Post #708 » by **REHawksFan** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:28 am

Spud2nique wrote:
peoriabird wrote:
Spud2nique wrote:Mavs just lost to Heat.. oh boy.

Can you give the rookie of the year trophy to a player that looses at th end of the season as much as the Great one does?

He looks tired and old. I’m not even hating he just looks it out there. Trae looks like he’s gettin warmed up!

Not sure if this will work but here's a chart illustrating the usage of Luka over the course of the season compared with his +/-. I found it interesting.

personanongrata · Post #709 » by **personanongrata** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:58 am

If only the Mavs and Cavs picks were unprotected. Three cracks at Zion.

peoriabird · Post #710 » by **peoriabird** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:29 pm

REHawksFan wrote:
Spud2nique wrote:
peoriabird wrote:Can you give the rookie of the year trophy to a player that looses at th end of the season as much as the Great one does?

He looks tired and old. I’m not even hating he just looks it out there. Trae looks like he’s gettin warmed up!

Not sure if this will work but here's a chart illustrating the usage of Luka over the course of the season compared with his +/-. I found it interesting.

Excellent illustration of how he pads his stats while being inefficient.

observer1995 · Post #711 » by **observer1995** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 5:20 pm

I buy Barrett being better in the NBA because his game will stand out more with more floor spacing. Shoot it'd stick out more with Virginia's shooting alone in college.

I'm hesitant on him for the Hawks but if he and Trae were able to get there on playing off of each other, that's actually a pretty intriguing possibility. Their dribble driving and passing ability, with Collins as a dive man and a decent jump shot, Trae/Kevin's shot, and another good PNR center seems like it'd be pretty good.

The problem would be getting there, but there's been flashes that he will get it at some point.

lethalweapon3 · Post #712 » by **lethalweapon3** » Sat Mar 30, 2019 3:35 am

MAVSPICK NOT-BOTTOM-5 MAGIC #: 5
(nice trophy, Jason!)

~lw3

lethalweapon3 · Post #713 » by **lethalweapon3** » Sat Mar 30, 2019 4:23 am

Some back-of-napkin calculations (it's more of a paper towel) based on post-Lottery odds combos (#5 and #6 only)...

Neither #5 Nor #6 Move into Top 4: 36.36%
#5 Moves into Top 4, #6 Does Not: 26.44%
#6 Moves into Top 4, #5 Does Not: 21.54%
#5 AND #6 Move into Top 4: 15.66%

---

Pre-Lottery Scenario A (Hawks at #5, Mavs at #6)

Mavs pick conveys to Hawks: 62.80%
Mavs keep pick: 37.20%

Hawks stay or move down: 57.90%
Hawks move up: 42.10%

---

Pre-Lottery Scenario B (Mavs at #5, Hawks at #6)

Mavs keep pick: 78.46%
Mavs pick conveys to Hawks: 21.54%

Hawks stay or move down: 62.80%
Hawks move up: 37.20%

~lw3

High 5 · Post #714 » by **High 5** » Sat Mar 30, 2019 4:37 am

lethalweapon3 wrote:Some back-of-napkin calculations (it's more of a paper towel) based on post-Lottery odds combos (#5 and #6 only)...

Neither #5 Nor #6 Move into Top 4: 36.36%
#5 Moves into Top 4, #6 Does Not: 26.44%
#6 Moves into Top 4, #5 Does Not: 21.54%
#5 AND #6 Move into Top 4: 15.66%

---

Pre-Lottery Scenario A (Hawks at #5, Mavs at #6)

Mavs pick conveys to Hawks: 62.80%
Mavs keep pick: 37.20%

Hawks stay or move down: 57.90%
Hawks move up: 42.10%

---

Pre-Lottery Scenario B (Mavs at #5, Hawks at #6)

Mavs keep pick: 78.46%
Mavs pick conveys to Hawks: 21.54%

Hawks stay or move down: 62.80%
Hawks move up: 37.20%

~lw3

I hesitate to question you, but how do you figure the Mavs would have a 78.46% chance to keep their pick at 5th? I'm pretty sure it's only 44.3%. 42.1% chance to move up + 2.2% to stay at 5th.

King Ken · Post #715 » by **King Ken** » Sat Mar 30, 2019 4:41 am

We need to keep taking Ls

Bob8 · Post #716 » by **Bob8** » Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:36 am

peoriabird wrote:
REHawksFan wrote:
Spud2nique wrote:
He looks tired and old. I’m not even hating he just looks it out there. Trae looks like he’s gettin warmed up!

Not sure if this will work but here's a chart illustrating the usage of Luka over the course of the season compared with his +/-. I found it interesting.

Excellent illustration of how he pads his stats while being inefficient.

Chart also shows what for winning means if you trade 4 starters, not playing the only real asset you have got back and losing Barea for the season because of the injury. But that of course doesn’t fit well with your narrative.

REHawksFan · Post #717 » by **REHawksFan** » Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:29 pm

Bob8 wrote:
peoriabird wrote:
REHawksFan wrote:

Not sure if this will work but here's a chart illustrating the usage of Luka over the course of the season compared with his +/-. I found it interesting.

Excellent illustration of how he pads his stats while being inefficient.

Chart also shows what for winning means if you trade 4 starters, not playing the only real asset you have got back and losing Barea for the season because of the injury. But that of course doesn’t fit well with your narrative.

Just more excuses. The chart speaks for itself. The higher Luka's usage, the worse he plays.

Bob8 · Post #718 » by **Bob8** » Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:42 pm

REHawksFan wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
peoriabird wrote:Excellent illustration of how he pads his stats while being inefficient.

Chart also shows what for winning means if you trade 4 starters, not playing the only real asset you have got back and losing Barea for the season because of the injury. But that of course doesn’t fit well with your narrative.

Just more excuses. The chart speaks for itself. The higher Luka's usage, the worse he plays.

Because players in losing teams normally have great +\-? What would happen with Curry’s +\-, if they sold all starters except him? Yes context matters, but not here. Hate towards Luka is strong in this board. Interesting enough no one is talking about Trae in Mavs board.

thecampster · Post #719 » by **thecampster** » Sat Mar 30, 2019 1:11 pm

peoriabird wrote:
REHawksFan wrote:
Spud2nique wrote:
He looks tired and old. I’m not even hating he just looks it out there. Trae looks like he’s gettin warmed up!

Not sure if this will work but here's a chart illustrating the usage of Luka over the course of the season compared with his +/-. I found it interesting.

Excellent illustration of how he pads his stats while being inefficient.

Can't like this and the chart enough.

REHawksFan · Post #720 » by **REHawksFan** » Sat Mar 30, 2019 2:23 pm

Bob8 wrote:
REHawksFan wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Chart also shows what for winning means if you trade 4 starters, not playing the only real asset you have got back and losing Barea for the season because of the injury. But that of course doesn’t fit well with your narrative.

Just more excuses. The chart speaks for itself. The higher Luka's usage, the worse he plays.

Because players in losing teams normally have great +\-? What would happen with Curry’s +\-, if they sold all starters except him? Yes context matters, but not here. Hate towards Luka is strong in this board. Interesting enough no one is talking about Trae in Mavs board.

Yet there's a Mav on the Hawks board talking Luka? Weird. TBH, I don't hate Luka in the least. I think he's a hell of a player....just not currently the transcendent, generational player that Mavs fans think he is. I think he has potential to get there, but isn't there yet. I like Trae more and think he's played better than Luka since around January 1 which is ~40 games, so enough of a sample size to matter.

You say context matters? I agree, but I find it funny that you don't give context to the beginning of the season when Luka was playing WITH other NBA players that have been good enough to make the playoffs in Jordan and Barnes while Trae was playing with other rookies and missing his best player in Collins and a scorer in Prince.

Where's that context? Suits your narrative to claim context now that Luka is struggling (efficiency wise) but to ignore it with Trae. I also wonder where is context when considering Luka has been a pro for 3 years ? No wonder he came into the NBA a more well rounded player that had very little adjustment to go through early on.