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Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:21 am
by Ruhiel
NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?
Tweaked from Bill Ingram
Senior NBA Editor


When the Atlanta Hawks succumbed to the Chicago Bulls in the second round of the 2011 NBA playoffs many thought we had seem the last of Josh Smith in a Hawks uniform. Smith had become the favorite scapegoat for a team that was perceived to consistently underachieve, despite his being the team’s second-best scorer at 16.5 points per game and their best defender. Smith’s tendency to play out of control and take ill-advised shots drew the ire of new head coach Larry Drew on several occasions, leading many to feel that it was best if the Hawks traded Smith and moved in a different direction.

One of the other key issues driving the trade talk around Smith is the fact that starting center Al Horford really prefers to [defend] power forwards, which he can’t do with Smith in the mix and as the Hawks’ roster is currently constructed. If the Hawks could deal Smith for a starting center it would allow Horford to move over to [defend] the four, which he’s been lobbying to do for some time.

The NBA lockout drastically cut short the time teams had to make trades, but before the lockout went into effect the Hawks were busily working the phones looking for a deal. When that became public knowledge, Smith himself went on the defensive, saying he really felt it was time for his career to move in a new direction. He was finished with the Hawks, as well. Smith even reportedly named his preferred NBA destinations, listing the Houston Rockets, Boston Celtics, Orlando Magic and New Jersey Nets as his top teams.

When the lockout went into effect the Hawks had had little success in trying to move Smith. They had some brief discussion Los Angeles Clippers about attaining Chris Kaman, but the Clippers were looking for a small forward and didn’t believe Smith could fill that role despite his versatility. The Orlando Magic and New Jersey Nets lack the expendable pieces to make a deal happen (they’re not giving up Brook Lopez or Dwight Howard to get Smith), the Celtics didn’t seem to be interested, and the Rockets weren’t offering the kind of package that would get the deal done for Atlanta. And so, Josh Smith is still an Atlanta Hawk.

Perhaps that’s for the best, and perhaps the lockout has provided some time for cooler heads to prevail. After all, in Smith we’re talking about one of the best [combo] forwards in the Eastern Conference, and someone who has been considered a grievous snub in his repeated absence from the All-Star ranks. Giving him away for an older player like Kevin Garnett, as has been suggested, would be a mistake, as it would be to give him away for lesser pieces in an effort to save money. The Hawks may be reeling from their decision to ink Joe Johnson to a ridiculous contract, but cashing in a top-notch starter is not the answer. In fact, it would be a major step backwards for the Hawks.

No, the best trade for the Hawks might just be the one they haven’t made. Keeping Josh Smith could ultimately turn out to be the absolute best decision. Horford doesn’t want to play the five? Well, he has 12 million reasons to play wherever the Hawks ask him to play each year for the next five years, whether that’s at center or at point guard.

Of course, there are some feelings that need to be soothed if Smith is to stay. The organization needs to sit him down and draw him a map of the big picture, and head coach Larry Drew needs to take a sterner hand to rein in Smith’s game. The best solution is to have Smith get back on the same page as his coaches and his teammates and feel like he has a stake in the team’s success. If the Hawks can do that they won’t need to worry about their front court, and can focus on the bigger issues . . .
*spreading the court for rising new point guard Jeff Teague and Joe Johnson without sacrificing defense
* finding how Smith, an inside scorer who defends best at SF can coexist with Horford a PF-C who defends PFs best but scores best at center and forces Smith to take the outside role.
* the bench, with no center and committed salary how do Hawks maximize their talent's potential mismatches

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:33 pm
by dukeknicksirish
So which team is the best destination?

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:32 pm
by Geaux_Hawks
dukeknicksirish wrote:So which team is the best destination?


The point was to say, the Hawks are better off keeping Smith, than just trading him for meh..

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:26 pm
by Ruhiel
we're like the 76ers with Iguodala, except we get worse draft picks

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Sat Oct 1, 2011 2:54 am
by Geaux_Hawks
Ruhiel wrote:we're like the 76ers with Iguodala, except we get worse draft picks


I wish the Hawks had taken Iguodala over Childress in '04.

Would be perfect for this team right now.

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Mon Oct 3, 2011 3:28 am
by basics
Geaux_Hawks wrote:
Ruhiel wrote:we're like the 76ers with Iguodala, except we get worse draft picks


I wish the Hawks had taken Iguodala over Childress in '04.

Would be perfect for this team right now.


since Livingston and Harris were off the board, to me, the two clear cut choices for the Hawks at the time was Deng or Snyder, and i would have taken Deng only because i didn't see enough of Snyder, although Snyder did interest me.

Childress, Araújo, and Luke Jackson did not look like they had the athleticism to be in the NBA.

i liked Iguodala alittle, but i thought he was a boom or bust player like DerMarr Johnson

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Tue Oct 4, 2011 1:13 am
by Geaux_Hawks
basics wrote:
Geaux_Hawks wrote:
Ruhiel wrote:we're like the 76ers with Iguodala, except we get worse draft picks


I wish the Hawks had taken Iguodala over Childress in '04.

Would be perfect for this team right now.


since Livingston and Harris were off the board, to me, the two clear cut choices for the Hawks at the time was Deng or Snyder, and i would have taken Deng only because i didn't see enough of Snyder, although Snyder did interest me.

Childress, Araújo, and Luke Jackson did not look like they had the athleticism to be in the NBA.

i liked Iguodala alittle, but i thought he was a boom or bust player like DerMarr Johnson


I thought Iggy was worth the gamble though.. I honestly felt Deng was going to turn out to be a decent player with something like 14-5

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Tue Oct 4, 2011 2:49 am
by MaceCase
Hindsight is 20/20 but honestly.......how would the Hawks have afforded Iggy's contract with this current group? Unlike Chills it really would have come down to Josh or Iggy in their free agency summer given their asking prices.

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Tue Oct 4, 2011 4:15 pm
by Geaux_Hawks
MaceCase wrote:Hindsight is 20/20 but honestly.......how would the Hawks have afforded Iggy's contract with this current group? Unlike Chills it really would have come down to Josh or Iggy in their free agency summer given their asking prices.


We wouldn't have felt the need to overpay Joe..

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Tue Oct 4, 2011 11:01 pm
by MaceCase
Geaux_Hawks wrote:
MaceCase wrote:Hindsight is 20/20 but honestly.......how would the Hawks have afforded Iggy's contract with this current group? Unlike Chills it really would have come down to Josh or Iggy in their free agency summer given their asking prices.


We wouldn't have felt the need to overpay Joe..

What? When we initially signed Joe? No, Iggy and Josh were just sophomores so they would of had zero impactt on that deal.

On his recent contract? Wrong again because we simply would of had zero way to pay both Josh and Iggy in their free agency summer which, if you are forgetting, came years before Joe was up for a new deal. Why do you think we low balled Chills and he was barely asking for much above the MLE.

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Wed Oct 5, 2011 10:59 pm
by Geaux_Hawks
If you are trying to sell the Hawks "low balling on Childress because it was too expensive", then I disagree that they only low balled him because he wasn't worth the money. You see what happened in Phoenix.

Honestly, If we had drafted Iggy and Smith, and still traded for Joe, then we would have drafted our PG in CP3 or Deron. Therefore, we wouldn't have signed Claxton nor traded for Bibby, and by not doing that, we would have plenty of money to re-sign Smith and Iggy in that summer of 2008 to their current deals and CP3 or Deron.

It would have been expensive in 2009-2010, but maybe the Hawks could have traded down from 11 with the Spurs & got all their picks and drafted some depth with Tiago Splitter, Marcus Williams, and Marc Gasol in '07 and had one of the best starting 5 this year.

I know they wouldn't feel the need to give Joe 120 million, since we would have had Paul or Deron, Iggy, & Smith as the core, so maybe they let him go, and use that money on Wes Mattews.

I might be a bit too optimistic on it, but 2008-2009 would be the first year the Hawks would have had any big money committed outside of Joe if you exclude trading for Bibby and signing Speedy. Imagine the Hawks like this:

1-CP3/Shannon Brown(2006)
2-Matthews/Marcus Williams
3-Iggy/M. Williams
4-Smith/Splitter
5-Gasol/Zaza

Just being optimistic though. Maybe to optimistic, but I could see something similar to that occurring.

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Thu Oct 6, 2011 12:58 am
by MaceCase
So now hindsight is not only 20/20 but capable of creating an alternate reality where you can pick and choose what deals get done. :roll:

Joe was brought in that summer after Marvin was drafted to be the Hawks PG under BK's all 6'8" plan.
Considering Josh was a 3/4 and Iggy a 2/3 there is no glaring change in that scenario that would have changed BK's mind on drafting Marvin a 4/3 and then going out and getting Joe to be a 1/2. You can play revisionist history all you want but fact remains we have a wonderful poster in D-21 that updates salaries every summer for us in a sticky thread on the top

Have a look.
Under contract:
15,818,917 - Mike Bibby
14,232,566 - Joe Johnson
05,757,818 - Speedy Claxton
05,636,142 - Marvin Williams
04,026,720 - Al Horford
04,000,000 - Zaza Pachulia
02,071,680 - Acie Law
00,797,581 - Solomon Jones (non guaranteed year, can be waived and removed from the count)

So $52,341,424 without the Joshes cap holds and exceptions.
With Joshes cap holds:

52,341,424
+ 6,730,629 Josh Smith (3 x this year $2,243,543)
+10,894,347 Josh Childress (3 x this year $3,631,449)

Total: $69,966,400 with the cap being $58.68M next season.

+ MLE ($5.585M) and the Bi-annual exception ($1.91M for next season), unless ATL decides to renounce.

So, this time, with only Josh Smith cap holds, we are over the cap (unless other trades come). No cap room, but the previous cap room was almost the amount of the MLE, so it doesn't change anything.
Basically, we still have the MLE to get players this summer.


since you wanted to revise history where we drafted Paul instead and thus didn't need Bibby we also had a scenario for that too.
* before the Bibby trade:

Expiring contracts:
3,500,000 - Tyronn Lue
3,250,000 - Lorenzen Wright
2,860,000 - Anthony Johnson
0,427,163 - Mario West
0,783,000 - Salim Stoudamire

Under contract:
14,232,566 - Joe Johnson
05,757,818 - Speedy Claxton
05,636,142 - Marvin Williams
04,026,700 - Al Horford
04,000,000 - Zaza Pachulia
03,395,760 - Shelden Williams
02,071,680 - Acie Law
00,797,581 - Solomon Jones (non guaranteed year, can be waived and removed from the count)

So $41,484,247 without the Joshes cap holds and exceptions.
With Joshes cap holds:

41,484,247
+ 6,730,629 Josh Smith (3 x this year $2,243,543)
+10,894,347 Josh Childress (3 x this year $3,631,449)

Total: $59,109,223 with the cap being $58.68M next season.

Again, where is the money coming from? This is the ASG we are speaking of and those calculations are only including Josh and Chill's capholds not their actually salary.

While you are back there tinkering and tweaking history to make the money work why don't you go back one year and give Bob Sura birdflu that way we get Dwight and Josh in 04' and then draft Paul in 05'.

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Thu Oct 6, 2011 4:10 am
by Geaux_Hawks
I was optimisticly thinking. Not trying to re-write history. BK could have still picked Marvin, but I think he would at least gave one of the PG's a stronger thought since Iggy would have been a better starter over Childress. I did forget the 2005 draft was before the jj trade.

I'm not even going to get into the rest because it isn't that big of an issue. All I said was it would been nice if the Hawks had drafted Iggy over chill

Re: Cooler Talk NBA PM: The Best Josh Smith Trade?

Posted: Thu Oct 6, 2011 4:30 pm
by MaceCase
Sure it would have been nice but looking at the grand scheme of things revising history also tends to have a negative effect on things and not just positive.