Josh Smith's Peak pt.2: What Happened To Smith
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:20 am
What Happened To Josh Smith’s Assist Rate?
In 2009-10, Josh Smith arguably had the best year of his career, posting some really good numbers. Even though his points per game, 15.7, wasn’t his highest mark, Smith was playing a great well rounded game, and that showed in his PER, which was a career high 20.96. Maybe the most impressive aspect of Smith’s game two years ago was the fact that he was more concerned with getting his teammates involved than past years. While Smith’s turnover rate remained stagnate, Smith saw his assist rate jump up from 14.47 in 2008-09 to 24.81 in 2009-10.
However, the 2009-10 season may have been Smith’s peak as his play dropped last year, seeing his PER go from 20.96 to 19.18. A lot of people want to point to the return of Smith’s three point shot as the reason for the dip in performance, but that isn’t really the case as Smith was hitting 33 percent of them. That’s not a great number, but that isn’t a terrible number either. In fact, Smith’s True Shooting Percentage (TS%) actually increased from 2009-10 to least year, going from 53.6 percent to 54.0 percent. The real problem in Smith’s game this past season was the drop in his assist rate, as it went from 24.81 two years ago to 18.52 last year.
So what happened with Smith and his assist rate? He stopped having success passing out if isolation situations. As a passer, Smith was at his best two years ago, working out of isolation situations where his passes would result in his teammates posting a points per possession (PPP) of 1.50 while shooting 61.1 percent and an eFG% of 76.4 percent. One of the reasons why Smith was so successful passing out of isolation situations is that the Hawks would usually run sets involving cuts off of Smith as he worked with the basketball:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fskwT3rG8vU&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
Whenever Smith was isolated with the basketball, the Hawks would be cutting off of him. Whether it be set plays or just something his teammates did (both happened in the Hawks’ offense), the team seemed really concerned with providing him with options as his tried to isolate his man. Almost as if they knew if they didn’t Smith might get out of control and force something. The result was 31.6 percent of Smith’s assists out of isolation going to a cutter.
Last season, the cutting off of Smith stopped, and so did the success rate passing out of isolation. Last year, Smith’s teammates posted a PPP of just 0.75 when Smith passed it to them out of isolation situations. Maybe the biggest factor is that he wasn’t hitting cutters anymore, as just 25 percent of his assists went to cutters. The reason why Smith wasn’t hitting cutters is that the cutters weren’t there anymore:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lF3bYGe-vzs&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
Whenever Smith isolated last year, the movement off of the basketball from two years ago seemed to disappear. Nobody was cutting and the four other Hawks were standing around watching Smith try to create something and the result was more turnovers. Two years ago, Smith turned the ball over just 7.8 percent of the time when in isolation. This was because when Smith started to put himself in a tough position by overdribbling, a teammate would cut and provide him with a safety valve. With the Hawks’ seemingly standing around more, when Smith would start to get himself in trouble, those safety valve’s weren’t there and he turned the ball over.
Josh Smith is one of the most dynamic players in the NBA because he can do a number of things. However, the Hawks need to understand that they need to make things easier for him on the offensive end by providing him with passing options, especially when he is isolating his man. It’s interesting, Larry Drew’s offense promised much more off ball movement than Mike Woodson, and for the most part his delivered on that promise, but for some reason when Josh Smith had the ball, that movement stopped.
http://nbaplaybook.com/what-happened-to ... sist-rate/
In 2009-10, Josh Smith arguably had the best year of his career, posting some really good numbers. Even though his points per game, 15.7, wasn’t his highest mark, Smith was playing a great well rounded game, and that showed in his PER, which was a career high 20.96. Maybe the most impressive aspect of Smith’s game two years ago was the fact that he was more concerned with getting his teammates involved than past years. While Smith’s turnover rate remained stagnate, Smith saw his assist rate jump up from 14.47 in 2008-09 to 24.81 in 2009-10.
However, the 2009-10 season may have been Smith’s peak as his play dropped last year, seeing his PER go from 20.96 to 19.18. A lot of people want to point to the return of Smith’s three point shot as the reason for the dip in performance, but that isn’t really the case as Smith was hitting 33 percent of them. That’s not a great number, but that isn’t a terrible number either. In fact, Smith’s True Shooting Percentage (TS%) actually increased from 2009-10 to least year, going from 53.6 percent to 54.0 percent. The real problem in Smith’s game this past season was the drop in his assist rate, as it went from 24.81 two years ago to 18.52 last year.
So what happened with Smith and his assist rate? He stopped having success passing out if isolation situations. As a passer, Smith was at his best two years ago, working out of isolation situations where his passes would result in his teammates posting a points per possession (PPP) of 1.50 while shooting 61.1 percent and an eFG% of 76.4 percent. One of the reasons why Smith was so successful passing out of isolation situations is that the Hawks would usually run sets involving cuts off of Smith as he worked with the basketball:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fskwT3rG8vU&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
Whenever Smith was isolated with the basketball, the Hawks would be cutting off of him. Whether it be set plays or just something his teammates did (both happened in the Hawks’ offense), the team seemed really concerned with providing him with options as his tried to isolate his man. Almost as if they knew if they didn’t Smith might get out of control and force something. The result was 31.6 percent of Smith’s assists out of isolation going to a cutter.
Last season, the cutting off of Smith stopped, and so did the success rate passing out of isolation. Last year, Smith’s teammates posted a PPP of just 0.75 when Smith passed it to them out of isolation situations. Maybe the biggest factor is that he wasn’t hitting cutters anymore, as just 25 percent of his assists went to cutters. The reason why Smith wasn’t hitting cutters is that the cutters weren’t there anymore:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lF3bYGe-vzs&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
Whenever Smith isolated last year, the movement off of the basketball from two years ago seemed to disappear. Nobody was cutting and the four other Hawks were standing around watching Smith try to create something and the result was more turnovers. Two years ago, Smith turned the ball over just 7.8 percent of the time when in isolation. This was because when Smith started to put himself in a tough position by overdribbling, a teammate would cut and provide him with a safety valve. With the Hawks’ seemingly standing around more, when Smith would start to get himself in trouble, those safety valve’s weren’t there and he turned the ball over.
Josh Smith is one of the most dynamic players in the NBA because he can do a number of things. However, the Hawks need to understand that they need to make things easier for him on the offensive end by providing him with passing options, especially when he is isolating his man. It’s interesting, Larry Drew’s offense promised much more off ball movement than Mike Woodson, and for the most part his delivered on that promise, but for some reason when Josh Smith had the ball, that movement stopped.
http://nbaplaybook.com/what-happened-to ... sist-rate/