Atlanta Hawks at a crossroads
Posted: Sat May 5, 2012 7:14 pm
RealGM
Sports is our Business
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/
Atlanta Hawks at a crossroads
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1179441
Page 1 of 1
Re: Atlanta Hawks at a crossroads
Posted: Sat May 5, 2012 9:57 pm
A few critiques:
#1) There are more than those 2 decisions that contribute to the situation, but I agree those would be the top two. Others that were damaging were lottery picks spent on Shelden Williams and AC Law, the decision to resign Mike Bibby, and the decision to resign Marvin Williams. The decision to pass on Paul or Williams has caused the last 7 years to be worse than they should, but given how both those players have been traded before they could walk away in free agency maybe it isn't a important to the current Hawks except that it left us with Marvin Williams and he's here for 2 more years.
#2) You say Joe Johnson is just a scorer. That's not true. While he is horribly overpaid, he is actually one of our better perimeter defenders. His reputation for defense fell off a bit when we had Jamal Crawford probably due to osmosis. Now, he's back to defending at a high level. Not enough to justify the paycheck, but without the charisma to sell out arenas he'll never justify the salary.
#3) The Hawks aren't actually set at C because Al Horford doesn't want to play there and is overmatched when facing the biggest and best centers in the league. Zaza Pachulia actually proved to be a competent center this year because he got consistent minutes, but he's in the last year of his deal.
#4) SG may not be a set position either. It may actually be SF. As Joe Johnson ages with an essentially unmovable contract, if he slows, he might be better at SF than SG because of matchups. One of the two positions is manned.
I'd also argue that in spite of his inconsistency at this point that PG is filled with Jeff Teague.
I also disagree with the overall argument that it is crossroads and time for a change. It's coming and is likely to be next summer (Josh and Zaza contracts end, Jeff an RFA), but the signs are there that the Hawks shouldn't jump the gun. Josh Smith developed into the teams best player this year. I'd want to see if it is maintained or even exceeded with Al back in the lineup. Jeff Teague and Zaza Pachulia improved their games significantly. It might even merit making Jeff, Joe, Josh, Al, and Zaza the primary lineup. That lineup would eliminate one of the biggest flaws in the current lineup. I speak of Marvin Williams/Kirk Hinrich because either of those guys contribute so little offensively that they allow the opponent to hide a weak defender and always crack down on Joe Johnson with their top perimeter defender. Zaza doesn't provide much offensive punch, but still requires a big to check.
If Josh still wants out it may force the crossroads because of the fear of losing him for nothing, but even then the Hawks don't have to accept the best offer in the off-season as they would still have the trade deadline in 2013 and even the possibility of a sign and trade in the summer of 2013. If Josh has softened his stance or the right deal isn't found the Hawks can focus on 1 more year.
The big thing that makes me believe this isn't the crossroads summer is that trading Josh Smith won't return enough immediate help to do anything but maybe maintain position in the standings. I have to believe that ownership sees that they have 1 more year as currently constructed based on contracts. That 1 more year could possibly get that late playoff run that converts casual observers into actual fans. I think they'd rather risk losing Josh for nothing than giving up on that last window. Also under this ownership they've shown a history of letting contracts play all the way out rather than trade before losing an asset (Harrington, Johnson, Crawford, Bibby, Hinrich). Dealing the expiring contract doesn't seem to be in their vocabulary.
#1) There are more than those 2 decisions that contribute to the situation, but I agree those would be the top two. Others that were damaging were lottery picks spent on Shelden Williams and AC Law, the decision to resign Mike Bibby, and the decision to resign Marvin Williams. The decision to pass on Paul or Williams has caused the last 7 years to be worse than they should, but given how both those players have been traded before they could walk away in free agency maybe it isn't a important to the current Hawks except that it left us with Marvin Williams and he's here for 2 more years.
#2) You say Joe Johnson is just a scorer. That's not true. While he is horribly overpaid, he is actually one of our better perimeter defenders. His reputation for defense fell off a bit when we had Jamal Crawford probably due to osmosis. Now, he's back to defending at a high level. Not enough to justify the paycheck, but without the charisma to sell out arenas he'll never justify the salary.
#3) The Hawks aren't actually set at C because Al Horford doesn't want to play there and is overmatched when facing the biggest and best centers in the league. Zaza Pachulia actually proved to be a competent center this year because he got consistent minutes, but he's in the last year of his deal.
#4) SG may not be a set position either. It may actually be SF. As Joe Johnson ages with an essentially unmovable contract, if he slows, he might be better at SF than SG because of matchups. One of the two positions is manned.
I'd also argue that in spite of his inconsistency at this point that PG is filled with Jeff Teague.
I also disagree with the overall argument that it is crossroads and time for a change. It's coming and is likely to be next summer (Josh and Zaza contracts end, Jeff an RFA), but the signs are there that the Hawks shouldn't jump the gun. Josh Smith developed into the teams best player this year. I'd want to see if it is maintained or even exceeded with Al back in the lineup. Jeff Teague and Zaza Pachulia improved their games significantly. It might even merit making Jeff, Joe, Josh, Al, and Zaza the primary lineup. That lineup would eliminate one of the biggest flaws in the current lineup. I speak of Marvin Williams/Kirk Hinrich because either of those guys contribute so little offensively that they allow the opponent to hide a weak defender and always crack down on Joe Johnson with their top perimeter defender. Zaza doesn't provide much offensive punch, but still requires a big to check.
If Josh still wants out it may force the crossroads because of the fear of losing him for nothing, but even then the Hawks don't have to accept the best offer in the off-season as they would still have the trade deadline in 2013 and even the possibility of a sign and trade in the summer of 2013. If Josh has softened his stance or the right deal isn't found the Hawks can focus on 1 more year.
The big thing that makes me believe this isn't the crossroads summer is that trading Josh Smith won't return enough immediate help to do anything but maybe maintain position in the standings. I have to believe that ownership sees that they have 1 more year as currently constructed based on contracts. That 1 more year could possibly get that late playoff run that converts casual observers into actual fans. I think they'd rather risk losing Josh for nothing than giving up on that last window. Also under this ownership they've shown a history of letting contracts play all the way out rather than trade before losing an asset (Harrington, Johnson, Crawford, Bibby, Hinrich). Dealing the expiring contract doesn't seem to be in their vocabulary.