RealGM

You know, in the off chance that the ownership group looks at the RealGM forums, and that they actually decide to take a serious look at what the fans would like. Since, you know, we're one of the biggest fansites on the Internets.

Hey Atlanta Spirit, you really should hire me. I promise to always make rationale decisions that even if they turn out poorly, will completely be explainable to fans and any stakeholders.

Alternately, Rick Sund, if you're still there, you should hire me to be on your team. I'm fine without being Assistant GM as long as that potential path is there. Sorry for trying to steal your job; can't blame a guy for trying.

Now that that's out of the way... Moves are done in chronological order.




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Move 1: Trade Joe Johnson to Dallas.
Details: Joe Johnson for Lamar Odom, Shawn Marion, Dominique Jones
Rationale: Joe Johnson must be the first piece moved in a Hawks rebuild - he simply makes too much money. Without moving him for smaller pieces, any other moves, barring blatantly highway robbery, are not likely to make the team better in the long term. For Atlanta, this breaks down his contract into what are essentially two contributing expirings, as well as a young player who admittedly hasn't shown much.

For Dallas, Dirk has already professed that he feels the need for another scorer/playmaker on the team. This trade, along with the team going after Deron Williams in FA, would allow them to field a starting lineup of Williams/Carter/Johnson/Dirk/Haywood, which is just offensively stacked. Odom and Jones were non contributors, meaning that from a player standpoint, they are merely swapping Marion for Johnson, a clearcut upgrade in talent.

Move 2a: Trade Josh Smith to Toronto
Details: Josh Smith for Jose Calderon, DeMar DeRozan, 2012 1st
Rationale: This is Josh Smith's final year in Atlanta, and it's probably time to move on. I think
a lot of our team's issues stem from Josh's attitude as a leader - highly bipolar play, inconsistent effort, a tendency for the ball movement to stagnate, and way too many jumpshots. But I don't want to linger on the negative. This trade gives us a productive expiring distributing PG, a decent young swing prospect, and a lotto first.

For Toronto, they need two way talent. Josh Smith could actually play the 3 in Toronto with Bargnani's shooting, and Jonas Valanciunas coming over.

Move 2b: Trade Josh Smith to Cleveland
Details: Josh Smith for Luke Walton, Boobie Gibson, 2012 1st
Rationale: We get a very high 1st round pick, as well as a shooter. Cleveland gets a veteran who would tremendously help Kyrie as a passing target, solidifies their interior defense with Varejao, and teaches Tristan Thompson how to use his athleticism defensively. Not to mention Josh Smith isn't that old yet, and he fills that 6'9 athletic SF/PF hole in Cleveland's wounded heart.

Move 3: Let most of the bench walk.
Details: Don't resign Hinrich unless he is willing to take a veteran's minimum. Don't resign Collins, Stackhouse, Radmanovic, Dampier, or Pargo.
Rationale: Hinrich has not played well in his stint in Atlanta, to my surprise. Made a couple buckets here and there, played some decent defensive stints, but definitely didn't bring the sort of impact both as a player and as a leader that I had anticipated. For another team he might be worth the money, but not here, not with our financial problems. Min or out.

Move 4: Resign a few bench guys, but inexpensively
Details: Resign Green and McGrady to minimums. Offer Ivan Johnson a small $2-3MM deal.
Rationale: These guys have been solid contributors, and at a low price are worth the money.


Move 5a. (traded with Toronto): Draft a SG, and then BPA
Details: Draft a high-caliber SG with the Toronto pick (8th) such as Austin Rivers or Bradley Beal if he slips. With our own pick, draft whoever is the best player available talentwise, regardless of position.
Rationale: With Joe Johnson moving out the door, we have no starting-caliber 2 guard. Beal or Rivers would both be able to step into that slot immediately, and both have sufficient upside to be All-Stars for a long time. By Joe Johnson AND Josh Smith out the door, we almost certainly fall into the lotto for this next year, meaning that we shouldn't be drafting to fill a specific need, but drafting the player most likely to contribute in the future. Who this player would be can highly vary, although I'd be thrilled if a big man like Arnett Moultrie fell to us.

Move 5b. (traded with Cleveland): Draft Andre Drummond, and then BPA
Details: Just like it says
Rationale: Andre Drummond has the potential to be an elite center. Yes, he has boom/bust written all over him, but I think it's been proven that every championship needs a superstar caliber player on it. His game also pairs excellently with Horford's, and we should have enough shooters on the roster to make the transition easier for him. With the second pick, we again take BPA; I'd prefer Tony Wroten if he fell to us.

Move 6: Hire an experienced, proven coach with a track record of competence
Details: I'd prefer Jeff Van Gundy. Jerry Sloan and Phil Jackson would also be acceptable. Mike D'Antoni, bless his heart, would not.
Rationale: Look, I like Larry Drew. He seems like he's a really nice guy who all the players respect. The problem? Well, for one, they don't seem to listen to him. Another thing is that his player management sucks. Couldn't get Josh Smith to stop taking long jumpshots - in fact, Josh started taking them at an unprecedented rate. Wouldn't play Teague any meaningful minutes until there literally were no other PGs on the roster. Wouldn't keep in hot hands. Just not head coach in my opinion. Great guy though.
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Final Roster A
Jeff Teague/Jose Calderon
(Austin Rivers/Bradley Beal)/Willie Green
DeMar DeRozan/Marvin Williams/TMac
Shawn Marion/Lamar Odom/Ivan Johnson
Al Horford/Zaza Pachulia/Arnett Moultrie

Final Roster B
Jeff Teague/Tony Wroten
Daniel Gibson/Willie Green/T-Mac
Lamar Odom/Marvin Williams/Luke Walton
Al Horford/Shawn Marion
Andre Drummond/Zaza Pachulia

In 2013/2014, we get left with Teague, Horford, Marvin, Marion, and either Beavers/Moultrie or Drummond/Wroten, and a total of ~$37MM in salaries.

Thoughts? Constructive criticism? Irrational hatred? Job offers? Send 'em my way!

Thanks for all this work. It helps all of us when you lay it out like this.

The "a" scenario is too horrible to consider. Back to the lottery ... so soon?

Look at your "b" scenario: if you take Joe out of the equation, you have Smith to CLE for Drummond. That's the only value you're bringing in. That, alone, is your deal. We lose $2 million immediately off of our cap and the rest the next year. The deal becomes Smith (and his contract) for Drummond (and his rookie contract).

If Drummond is all he's supposed to be and if we keep Joe (which I expect), we're good next year and great after. If Drummond takes 3-4 years to grow up, we're toast. Of course, all that's with the expectation that Drummond is there when we draft. What if he's not? I just have to believe that a Center is going to go high in the draft, unless he's not that good or he's too much of a headcase. Someone is going to reach for him, if he's all folks say he is.

I think Dallas would only be interested in Joe Johnson if they fail at signing Deron Williams. The team needs to find a competent upgrade at the 5, but that won't occur, if they acquire Joe Johnson, and sign Deron Williams.

This trade is interesting: Details: Josh Smith for Jose Calderon, DeMar DeRozan, 2012 1st

The issue I have with roster a is that we continue to have Horford at the 5. I prefer him to start at the 4, if Josh Smith is moved, Shawn Marion is suspect at the 4, and the lineup is just a first round exit (if they make the playoffs).

Both these final rosters are intended for a rebuild, yes. Bear in mind that while they aren't terribly competitive rosters this immediate next season, following that we'll be looking at something like $22-24 MM in expirings the year after.

I'd rather go back to the lottery than stick with this treadmill team, where we acquire more and more expensive pieces that don't actually contribute. See: Washington Wizards, circa 2007.

Drummond will probably take at least two years to be legitimately good. I think that's fine - we'll be able to add some other pieces in the interim while establishing a culture of fundamentally sound basketball. The Cleveland pick is expected to be 3rd, and with the #1 pick almost certainly taking Anthony Davis and Washington, NOH, and SAC all having starting caliber C's already, our odds should be good.

HMFFL, as a Mavs fan as well, wouldn't Dallas at least have to consider the massive amount of offensive weaponry at their disposal with Deron/Joe/Dirk, and probably Terry still coming off the bench? Mahinmi and Wright also played well this season, and could probably be re-signed cheaply given that they would get meaningful minutes, and it's not like Odom or Jones contributed ANYTHING to the Mavs. It'd be almost a straight talent upgrade from Marion to Joe.

Also, with roster A, Horford has to play C again, yes. However, with all that cap room, we could be a player in 2013 FA. Some names: Dalembert, Pekovic, Mozgov... Dwight Howard?

The offense that Joe Johnson would bring won't be needed if Dallas can sign Deron Williams. The problem with the trade is that Dallas will be thin at the 3, 4, and 5 on defense. Marion is serviceable on defense but that's about it. JaVale McGee should be an option for Dallas this off-season at the 5, since Dwight Howard most likely won't happen now, so the focus needs to be on another scorer, and a mobile 5 that can contribute.

We do know when Joe Johnson was a free agent, Cuban attempted a S&T for him, but he had no intentions on including the overhyped Rodrigue Beaubois. I think Cuban would still be interested in Joe but only if Deron passes on signing with Dallas.

I agree, that Mahinmi and Wright should be cheap, and Dominique Jones will only become successful if he can dominate the ball (won't happen). I think the majority of Dallas fans on Realgm are sick of Jason Terry, and he expects a large extension, but I think he only deserves around $5-$6 mill per year (Jamal Crawford money). Delonte West is the guard that needs to be a fixture on the team so I hope he gets extended.

HMFFL, Shawn Marion is arguably the best defender in the NBA(I will say in the last decade, but thats another discussion), way better than servicable. If your team has all the other pieces in order, he is an amazing addition.

Not saying I agree with these trades, just seems you are downgrading what he brings to a team.

Rip2137 wrote:HMFFL, Shawn Marion is arguably the best defender in the NBA(I will say in the last decade, but thats another discussion), way better than servicable. If your team has all the other pieces in order, he is an amazing addition.

Not saying I agree with these trades, just seems you are downgrading what he brings to a team.

I would have no interested in Marion being my starting 4. Mainly because his offense game is far from being what it once was. It's frustrating watching him drive inside to only miss a floating layup.

I expect Cuban to stay loyal to Marion. I view him as valuable, but do you view his contract as reasonable?

$8,646,364
$9,316,796

azuresou1 wrote:Move 1: Trade Joe Johnson to Dallas.
Details: Joe Johnson for Lamar Odom, Shawn Marion, Dominique Jones
Rationale: Joe Johnson must be the first piece moved in a Hawks rebuild - he simply makes too much money. Without moving him for smaller pieces, any other moves, barring blatantly highway robbery, are not likely to make the team better in the long term. For Atlanta, this breaks down his contract into what are essentially two contributing expirings, as well as a young player who admittedly hasn't shown much.

For Dallas, Dirk has already professed that he feels the need for another scorer/playmaker on the team. This trade, along with the team going after Deron Williams in FA, would allow them to field a starting lineup of Williams/Carter/Johnson/Dirk/Haywood, which is just offensively stacked. Odom and Jones were non contributors, meaning that from a player standpoint, they are merely swapping Marion for Johnson, a clearcut upgrade in talent.

I have not read all the trades, choosing to respond to each one as I read them.

I don't want to come off pissy at all because I respect dudes that take the time to think these things out.

My only question is: Why would Dallas add sooooo much payroll, when they could probably get Joe's productivity for a lot cheaper elsewhere?

I mean Joe is sooooo expensive. He is really, really expensive.

Now I haven't done the footwork on Dallas other than knowing they are way under the cap next season which gives them tremendous flexibility, but damn, for the money they would be paying Joe, they could keep Marion and still add a great guy for eleven million dollars. Wouldn't a guy like OJ Mayo cost 35% of what Joe makes and, with added playing time, wouldn't he add similliar production?

I think a team that has capspace, like Dallas, under a new CBA, would like to sign or acquire guys that have good dollar for dollar deals and Joe just doesn't fit that bill at all.

Now, assuming they could still sign Deron Williams even after trading for Joe (I'm not sure that's true), then you may have something.

It reminds of the move that Boston made to acquire Ray Allen. Once KG saw the talent being amassed in Boston, it made him want to go there. That move may actually sway Deron toward Dallas. So I like the move for them in that regard.

So, I suppose that if it were possible to sign Deron Williams and acquire Joe Johnson then it's a definite Dallas "power move" (albeit a very, very expensive one). However, it's also a risk because even with the acquisition of Joe Johnson, Deron Williams may still not come. Which leaves Dallas with Joe Johnson and his 90 million dollars.

Joe is expensive, yes. But he's far better than any reasonably available SG, including OJ Mayo, who is worse in pretty much every capacity other than as a shooter.

If my math is correct, Dallas adds close to no salary by doing this trade, meaning they can still add Deron. No doubt there is risk for Dallas, but I think they need to arm up for a final run.

I'm pretty sure your math is in fact wrong.

I haven't done extensive research on the subject, but according to this: http://www.hoopsworld.com/whose-got-cap-space ... the Mavs are only looking to be 4-5 mill under the cap next year.

Then why all the D.Will talk?

Apparently they were going to "buy out" Odom for like 2 mill or so (not a typical buyout--only 2 mill of next years contract is guaranteed) and amnesty Haywood. With the "buyout" of Odom, there capspace jumps to 13-14 mill and if they amnesty Haywood there capspace jumps to 21-22 mill.

So, if I'm correct (like I said I haven't crossed my T's and dotted my I's on this--so correct me if I'm wrong), the Mavs were looking at a solid 13.5 million in capspace or 21.5 if they amnesty Haywood (leaving them center-less).

If they were to acquire Joe Johnson, they would be taking away 9.5 million of there capspace. Leaving them with either 4 million left to spend or 12 million left spend (if they amnesty Haywood).

If my numbers are right, that makes it damn near impossible to acquire Joe Johnson and Deron Williams ... at least in the manner you have described.

I looked over the math again just now. Post-trade, assuming they keep Wright at his below-market option and amnesty Haywood, they'll have just over $14MM in cap space. Would Deron take a backloaded deal to play with Dirk/Johnson? Possibly. I do agree that it would be less probable than I initially thought.

Any other thoughts? I know we have more posters on this board than just this.

Azuresou1, I like the way you're thinking! I'm not sure how plausible any of the trades are (whether they do work or not), but I think we need to let go of the two most polarizing players on this team and retool the core. I'd like to bring back guys like Green and Johnson for the bench, but the real trick is going to be retooling the starting lineup. Josh is going to be easier to move, but do you really think CLE will give up on a potential superstar in Drummond for a head-case like Smoove? It doesn't matter who they already have, they need the best talent possible. I could see them trading Verajo should they plan on taking Drummond, which would solve some of our issues. I think moving JJ is all about giving the other team a lot of incentive for taking on his deal. We're not going to get expiring contracts back. We are going to get smaller, less effective, bad contracts in return and perhaps a pick. I don't think, if we have Sund as our GM still, we are going to see any moves like that though.

azuresou1 wrote:I looked over the math again just now. Post-trade, assuming they keep Wright at his below-market option and amnesty Haywood, they'll have just over $14MM in cap space. Would Deron take a backloaded deal to play with Dirk/Johnson? Possibly. I do agree that it would be less probable than I initially thought.

Any other thoughts? I know we have more posters on this board than just this.

Deron Williams will have an opt clause that favors him in his contract so he can sign a full max after a few years. He won't accept a backloaded deal at all.

If you look at all other 29 teams I can ONLY see one trade partner that makes sense for Joe Johnson ... that's Detroit.

Detroit has a handful of short term bad contracts and a couple of young quality, young players on rookie deals that would help balance out and swallow a deal like Joe's.

They also really need a PF ... wink, wink Josh Smith.

Detroit and the Hawks need to seriously get on the phone with each other if the Pistons don't find a seriously good PF with their #9 pick ... and if the Hawks are serious about getting their books in order. Josh Smith will be a FA real soon and he will expect to be paid if not traded.

They have to make a move or move forward with Joe, Josh, and Horford getting paid a ton of money to be their top three players for the next three or four years.

Everything I've heard from Mark Cuban indicates to me that he wouldn't touch Joe Johnson's contract. I think that part of your plan fails miserably. There's a good chance that some of the players you listed won't even be on Dallas's roster to trade. For instance, Odom is likely to be bought out for 2.4M. Either Marion or Haywood is a serious amnesty candidate to get greater cap room in order to offer the max to Deron Williams. After Williams is in the fold, Cuban won't be paying full retail for a 3rd "star". The reason is that the luxury tax that goes into affect after next season is quite punitive. Cuban passed on Nash and Chandler in the past because he thought they would lock him into a bad financial model. Trading for Joe Johnson's contract would be worse in sheer dollars. Not likely for someone who takes the big financial picture into consideration.