Any trade ideas?

[Hawk4Playoffs]

The Hawks are doing much better than I would have predicted 1/4 of the way through the season. With that said we are still lacking a SF. Korver and Stevenson are both SG.

I think we should be able to trade Morrow and or Harris for a SF.

Derrick Williams is a name that jumps out to me. He has really dropped out of Rick Adleman's rotation. I think he has a lot of up side and is young and would mesh well with Al and Josh. ESPN was suggesting Morrow and Jenkins for Williams. That seems like a fair trade seeing that we don't use Morrow or Jenkins much.

What do you guys think? Any other ideas?

[ATL Boy]

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1153036

[theatlfan]

Always hated that thread - for all the reasons it has become. 47 pages for a board that typically get 2-3 new threads a day? Doesn't make any sense...

Derrick Williams is a name that jumps out to me. He has really dropped out of Rick Adleman's rotation. I think he has a lot of up side and is young and would mesh well with Al and Josh. ESPN was suggesting Morrow and Jenkins for Williams. That seems like a fair trade seeing that we don't use Morrow or Jenkins much.

What do you guys think? Any other ideas?

Don't want Derrick Williams unless MIN pays us to take him. He's the bad kind of 'tweener - not athletic enough for SF; not big enough for PF. 2nd year in the league and can't beat out an average player for backup minutes and MIN thought enough of his chances @ SF that they went out and got Kirilenko from overseas.

Don't be blinded by youth here - I'll be surprised if he does more with his career than Marvin Williams.

[MaceCase]

I have no idea why people still like to classify Williams as a tweener. Just because a guy says he can play a position to increase his draft stock and get playing time for a team already featuring an All-NBA 4 doesn't make it so. He's a PF through and through with some perimeter skills. The fact that he is both heavier and longer than all of the Hawks' PFs should make this rather evident.

I wouldn't buy too much into his playing time either because he does play for Rick Adelman, a guy that has had guys from Peja, Hedo, Crash, Terrence Williams, Goran Dragic, Patrick Patterson, etc. ride the pine over their first few seasons. If you are looking at a guy of that kind of skill level and potential and all it's costing you is Morrow's expiring and Jenkins you simply do not scoff at it.

The Hawks are in a talent acquisition stage and just can't be overly reliant on free agency to get it done. Trading for talented prospects that other teams neither have the time or desire to develop is a big way to do that. If he's looking like he's not getting it by his 3rd year and his salary is somehow looking restrictive amongst the tons that the Hawks have available, well the team can just walk away from his 4th option year and in the end all it cost them was Morrow (who they could sign back) and Jenkins (who is not projected to be much greater than Morrow).

[ATL Boy]

I have no idea why people still like to classify Williams as a tweener. Just because a guy says he can play a position to increase his draft stock and get playing time for a team already featuring an All-NBA 4 doesn't make it so. He's a PF through and through with some perimeter skills. The fact that he is both heavier and longer than all of the Hawks' PFs should make this rather evident.

I wouldn't buy too much into his playing time either because he does play for Rick Adelman, a guy that has had guys from Peja, Hedo, Crash, Terrence Williams, Goran Dragic, Patrick Patterson, etc. ride the pine over their first few seasons. If you are looking at a guy of that kind of skill level and potential and all it's costing you is Morrow's expiring and Jenkins you simply do not scoff at it.

The Hawks are in a talent acquisition stage and just can't be overly reliant on free agency to get it done. Trading for talented prospects that other teams neither have the time or desire to develop is a big way to do that. If he's looking like he's not getting it by his 3rd year and his salary is somehow looking restrictive amongst the tons that the Hawks have available, well the team can just walk away from his 4th option year and in the end all it cost them was Morrow (who they could sign back) and Jenkins (who is not projected to be much greater than Morrow).

Agree with everything you just said, great post Mace

[dms269]

Always hated that thread - for all the reasons it has become. 47 pages for a board that typically get 2-3 new threads a day? Doesn't make any sense...

Derrick Williams is a name that jumps out to me. He has really dropped out of Rick Adleman's rotation. I think he has a lot of up side and is young and would mesh well with Al and Josh. ESPN was suggesting Morrow and Jenkins for Williams. That seems like a fair trade seeing that we don't use Morrow or Jenkins much.

What do you guys think? Any other ideas?

Don't want Derrick Williams unless MIN pays us to take him. He's the bad kind of 'tweener - not athletic enough for SF; not big enough for PF. 2nd year in the league and can't beat out an average player for backup minutes and MIN thought enough of his chances @ SF that they went out and got Kirilenko from overseas.

Don't be blinded by youth here - I'll be surprised if he does more with his career than Marvin Williams.

The reason it is there is for when rumors pop-up, and they do, we don't get 5-10 threads of people asking opinions about the rumors of Josh to the Lakers for Pau or the constantly proposals that pop-up when a reporter decides to run with the story of "Josh is unhappy, demands trade".

[GrimeyKidd]

Itd better be Morrow Tolliver or Scott only hawks that should be availible to trade

[theatlfan]

I have no idea why people still like to classify Williams as a tweener. Just because a guy says he can play a position to increase his draft stock and get playing time for a team already featuring an All-NBA 4 doesn't make it so. He's a PF through and through with some perimeter skills. The fact that he is both heavier and longer than all of the Hawks' PFs should make this rather evident.

I wouldn't buy too much into his playing time either because he does play for Rick Adelman, a guy that has had guys from Peja, Hedo, Crash, Terrence Williams, Goran Dragic, Patrick Patterson, etc. ride the pine over their first few seasons. If you are looking at a guy of that kind of skill level and potential and all it's costing you is Morrow's expiring and Jenkins you simply do not scoff at it.

The Hawks are in a talent acquisition stage and just can't be overly reliant on free agency to get it done. Trading for talented prospects that other teams neither have the time or desire to develop is a big way to do that. If he's looking like he's not getting it by his 3rd year and his salary is somehow looking restrictive amongst the tons that the Hawks have available, well the team can just walk away from his 4th option year and in the end all it cost them was Morrow (who they could sign back) and Jenkins (who is not projected to be much greater than Morrow).

People call him a 'tweener because he is. You can play an elite athlete with SF measurables @ PF, but if you've only got PF athleticism, then it's typically a mismatch. Our front court is perhaps the most athletic in all the NBA and that's why we get away with it (well, on some nights at least...). D Williams doesn't possess even Horford's athleticism, so forth Josh's. Unless D Williams re-invents his game, I just don't see anything more than a fringe short rotation player at this point.

Disagree on Adelman. Sure, anyone with 20+ years experience doing anything will have a few items that someone can nitpick on if they decide to look deep enough. I'm sure if we diagnosed the careers of a Phil Jackson or a Pat Riley, there would be a couple of guys that we could pick out as well. He's generally played most of his younger players - guys like Clifford Robinson, Joe Smith, Aaron Brooks, Luther Head, Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Chase Budinger, and even Ricky Rubio last year. As far as your list here, I find it hard to believe that getting 20+ minutes every night in the players 2nd year or playing a guy the exact same amount as he was playing before a mid-season trade as "rid[ing] the pine over their first few seasons".

Doesn't really matter with Adelman though, it's not so much what Adelman decides to give Williams as much as what he does with it. Williams simply hasn't produced, and for a guy that was supposed to be a near finished product when he came into the league, that's a big problem. Sure, maybe Williams can change his game and become something, but I can definitely see why Adelman wouldn't want to give him the game time to do that while racking up L's on a team trying to make a jump.

Last, and perhaps most importantly, we can't take on Williams' contract for expirings and not lose better opportunities. It's one thing to be "overly reliant" on FA - quite another to bow out of the only time you'll realistically be able to try for big one. Horford, L Williams, Josh, and Teague alone would put us very close to - if not already over - the line where we couldn't offer the max to someone with 7 years experience (which is most of them considering a 4 year rookie scale contract + 3 year extension), adding in D Williams puts us well over that line. Once you factor in a couple of guys who'll insist on a 3 year deal for Bird Rights, and we're done for a few years. The trade isn't, and won't, be Morrow (or any other expiring) + Jenkins (or any cheap, young asset) for D Williams, we'll also be giving up the ability to offer the max for 3-4 years at least... or we'll have to bail on Teague to do it. Do you honestly have that much belief in D Williams that he'd perform well enough this year (we can always get him in the off-season when his value would probably be even lower) to ditch out on FA or lose Teague? Seems awfully steep...

[MaceCase]

People call him a 'tweener because he is. You can play an elite athlete with SF measurables @ PF, but if you've only got PF athleticism, then it's typically a mismatch. Our front court is perhaps the most athletic in all the NBA and that's why we get away with it (well, on some nights at least...). D Williams doesn't possess even Horford's athleticism, so forth Josh's. Unless D Williams re-invents his game, I just don't see anything more than a fringe short rotation player at this point.

He possesses a greater standing reach and wingspan than both Al and Josh who have prototypical reach and length for the PF position so I don't get where these SF measurables are coming from. You don't play basketball with the top of your head so his height really isn't relevant in the least. I don't see how his athleticism is even being called in to question either considering his college career and combine results so once again, he's a tweener in mind or skillset but definitely not physically

Disagree on Adelman. Sure, anyone with 20+ years experience doing anything will have a few items that someone can nitpick on if they decide to look deep enough. I'm sure if we diagnosed the careers of a Phil Jackson or a Pat Riley, there would be a couple of guys that we could pick out as well. He's generally played most of his younger players - guys like Clifford Robinson, Joe Smith, Aaron Brooks, Luther Head, Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Chase Budinger, and even Ricky Rubio last year. As far as your list here, I find it hard to believe that getting 20+ minutes every night in the players 2nd year or playing a guy the exact same amount as he was playing before a mid-season trade as "rid[ing] the pine over their first few seasons".

The majority of all of those players were played around 20 minutes during their early years under Adelman.....just like Williams. You have a few exceptions like Joe Smith, Rubio and Head but the rest follow the same pattern as how Adelman is handling Williams now. The point is they for the most part turned out successful to very successful despite Adelman limiting them to ~20 minutes a game in their first couple seasons so playing time can't be looked at as a determinant of their talent level.

Doesn't really matter with Adelman though, it's not so much what Adelman decides to give Williams as much as what he does with it. Williams simply hasn't produced, and for a guy that was supposed to be a near finished product when he came into the league, that's a big problem. Sure, maybe Williams can change his game and become something, but I can definitely see why Adelman wouldn't want to give him the game time to do that while racking up L's on a team trying to make a jump.

I don't get where this is coming from. Williams was a college sophomore so I don't know how exactly he was viewed to be a "near finished" product when drafted. He was drafted to a team featuring arguably the best PF in the game under a coach who we've both managed to establish treats young players to a certain degree for a team looking to make a playoff push for the first time in ever. Of course there is a learning curve for him but unfortunately the Wolves are not in the mindset that he has to be developed at all costs. There are already aspects of his game that he does well such as rebounding and even blocking shots, where he is failing is continually trying to prove to people and himself that he can be a 3.

Last, and perhaps most importantly, we can't take on Williams' contract for expirings and not lose better opportunities. It's one thing to be "overly reliant" on FA - quite another to bow out of the only time you'll realistically be able to try for big one. Horford, L Williams, Josh, and Teague alone would put us very close to - if not already over - the line where we couldn't offer the max to someone with 7 years experience (which is most of them considering a 4 year rookie scale contract + 3 year extension), adding in D Williams puts us well over that line. Once you factor in a couple of guys who'll insist on a 3 year deal for Bird Rights, and we're done for a few years. The trade isn't, and won't, be Morrow (or any other expiring) + Jenkins (or any cheap, young asset) for D Williams, we'll also be giving up the ability to offer the max for 3-4 years at least... or we'll have to bail on Teague to do it. Do you honestly have that much belief in D Williams that he'd perform well enough this year (we can always get him in the off-season when his value would probably be even lower) to ditch out on FA or lose Teague? Seems awfully steep..

Far too many presumptions being made here. Too many speculations over what Josh will ask for, over what Teague will get, if the target is a max, If said max player is genuinely interested in signing in ATL over their current situation and other suitors, etc. etc. You already admitted that a max FA will be tough to sign if the intention is to just move on forward with the current roster so it really isn't hard to see that Teague is already looking mighty expendable so I don't know why Williams is being talked of as if his acquisition would force that decision. I can't remember but I believe its you that's absolutely sure that Josh will get a max and I'd stand to reckon that Teague would be asking for money in the same range as Jrue Holiday got......well the team isn't affording a max player at that point regardless so you are damned if you do look to acquire talent and damned if you don't. Your premise is faulty because those better opportunities were not even available to you under your own scenario.

[theatlfan]

He possesses a greater standing reach and wingspan than both Al and Josh who have prototypical reach and length for the PF position so I don't get where these SF measurables are coming from. You don't play basketball with the top of your head so his height really isn't relevant in the least. I don't see how his athleticism is even being called in to question either considering his college career and combine results so once again, he's a tweener in mind or skillset but definitely not physically

Well, the eyeball test doesn't match what you're saying. Maybe there's a different reason that these aren't matching up: maybe his athleticism doesn't translate, maybe he's staying more on the perimeter than he should (aka, 'tweener in mind as you suggest), maybe it's something completely different. Doesn't really change the fact that what he's doing now simply isn't working at either F position.

The majority of all of those players were played around 20 minutes during their early years under Adelman.....just like Williams. You have a few exceptions like Joe Smith, Rubio and Head but the rest follow the same pattern as how Adelman is handling Williams now. The point is they for the most part turned out successful to very successful despite Adelman limiting them to ~20 minutes a game in their first couple seasons so playing time can't be looked at as a determinant of their talent level.

Have to admit that I'm completely baffled by your line of logic here. To recap: Adelman gives the young players plenty of minutes (20+ minutes - enough to be in the fringes of the short rotation) to prove he should be on the floor more and has proven that he'll give the young players who do prove that they can help the team win (e.g., Rubio, Smith, Head) more minutes as warranted... but the reason Williams hasn't gotten more than 20 minutes with a handful of DNPCD's isn't because of the fact he's hitting 40% from the floor with slightly below average D, it's because Adelman doesn't give young players a chance. Is this what you're saying?!?

I don't get where this is coming from. Williams was a college sophomore so I don't know how exactly he was viewed to be a "near finished" product when drafted. He was drafted to a team featuring arguably the best PF in the game under a coach who we've both managed to establish treats young players to a certain degree for a team looking to make a playoff push for the first time in ever. Of course there is a learning curve for him but unfortunately the Wolves are not in the mindset that he has to be developed at all costs. There are already aspects of his game that he does well such as rebounding and even blocking shots, where he is failing is continually trying to prove to people and himself that he can be a 3.

In today's game, a prospect entering the draft after 2 years in college is considered "advanced" - especially one who played at a basketball factory like Arizona. We're not talking about a Marvin Williams who was a backup on a veteran laden UNC team with 3 JRs who had NBA careers or a big who was only passing through college to get to the pros. We're talking about someone who led his team to a deep NCAA run and earned numerous accolades. Whereas you don't necessarily expect any prospect to come in and be an immediate star, it isn't too much to think one with so many accolades should have enough talent and/or skill to be able to figure out ways to contribute to the team fairly quickly, definitely within a year+. Maybe he hasn't adjusted from being "the man" to being a contributor, but that's his fault - not Adelman's. Considering our PF situation, I don't see how he'd be "the man" here either, so we're just inheriting someone else's problem. In general, I don't see any need to take someone else's problem unless they're paying me to do so.

Far too many presumptions being made here. Too many speculations over what Josh will ask for, over what Teague will get, if the target is a max, If said max player is genuinely interested in signing in ATL over their current situation and other suitors, etc. etc. You already admitted that a max FA will be tough to sign if the intention is to just move on forward with the current roster so it really isn't hard to see that Teague is already looking mighty expendable so I don't know why Williams is being talked of as if his acquisition would force that decision. I can't remember but I believe its you that's absolutely sure that Josh will get a max and I'd stand to reckon that Teague would be asking for money in the same range as Jrue Holiday got......well the team isn't affording a max player at that point regardless so you are damned if you do look to acquire talent and damned if you don't. Your premise is faulty because those better opportunities were not even available to you under your own scenario.

I know it's easy to stick your head in the sand and say future plans don't matter because there's too many unknowns, but the fact is that Ferry has had the plan to carry the $$ to FA since the day he agreed to the JJ deal. If you don't acknowledge that, then you're simply not playing the same game as the real world. Optimizing the return we could get in FA is our main goal right now and yes, there are many factors and assumptions that would need to be made to get there.

If you think I'm the one who's insisted that Smoove gets maxed, then you've probably misread my statements. I've always said that Josh will be looking for the max and will demand it, but I really don't know what he'll actually get. I do think it's reasonable to assume that he'll get a raise though - 10% on $13.2M puts us @ $14.5M which seems to be a reasonable assumption on his floor. I don't think it's out of the question that he'd take a little less (or, at least, take the floor given here) if Ferry would use the money to put a better team around him, but until I see it, it's a hard assumption.

As far as Teague and FA after D Williams in general, you're not looking far enough. Now sure, if a miracle happens and a D12/CP3/Smoove pairing actually becomes a possibility, then the entire roster changes and there's probably not room for Teague... but having extra money like $5.3M owed to D Williams becomes a mighty big thorn in the side. Sure maybe we could dump D Williams at this point, but the better question is why take him on in the 1st place? You're just creating extra work and probably have to give more value to dump him.

But let's look at the more realistic scenario. 1st, the cap. We currently have ~$18.5M already committed to 3 players and possibly another ~$2.5-2.75M in 2 1st round picks. Adding in Smith at his floor (above), we're somewhere between $33M and $36M or $22M - $25M in cap room (Note here that we can't keep the 2 picks even without Jenkins while offering the max after taking Williams). In FA, the 2 best currently realistic targets would seem to be either Bynum (health concerns, but those would be well-reviewed before signing) for ~$18M or Iguodala (dunno - I'd guess somewhere in the Smoove range - $15-max). Even at the high end, we could clear cap in Jenkins ($1.25M) and the 2 picks to clear up to $8+M to try to fit Teague in. At the low end, we wouldn't even have to dump the young'uns. So, yes, it is a possibility that we could get a max or near max guy and keep the core.

Now, sure, there could be holes poked in the scenario, that's part of both the fun and the downfall of looking so far ahead. Smoove or Teague could want more, Iguodala might not be a fit, Bynum may be perfectly happy taking PHI's $$ while going bowling with his HS friends. H3ll, Ferry may not even be looking for a star in FA as much as simply wanting to use the cap space to take salary dumps to pull more assets (I don't think this is likely as per the quotes Ferry gave in regards to his meetings with Gearon and ASG on hiring though). Undeniably, the numbers are tight but also plausible. Taking on any $$ basically scuttles the whole mission though before it even really began.

[Ice32]

What about Corey Brewer from Denver? The dude is having a decent year off the bench for the Nuggets and would be a decent 20mpg guy with the Hawks. One of the fastest runners/cutters in the NBA and has improved his shooting percentages. Does gamble on the defensive end, but gets a ton of steals/deflections. Pure energy guy that can really disrupt the oppositions playmaker.

Would be re-united with Al Horford. Dude is a winner, 2 x NCAA Champ and won a ring in Dallas. Can guard 1-4 positions, ideal as a sub, but can start when needed. Probably worth 3-4 million over 3 years.

Plenty of fast breaks with him on the court.

[MaceCase]

Well, the eyeball test doesn't match what you're saying. Maybe there's a different reason that these aren't matching up: maybe his athleticism doesn't translate, maybe he's staying more on the perimeter than he should (aka, 'tweener in mind as you suggest), maybe it's something completely different. Doesn't really change the fact that what he's doing now simply isn't working at either F position.

Well the eyeball test isn't a subjective measure now is it? Fact is that over 60% of his offense comes from the perimeter. Now he could stroke it in college but he's not finding the same success so far in the pros, to speak as if this isn't something that can be addressed with a young player at this stage of their career is folly though. We are seeing the same issue with Thomas Robinson who was a pure post player in college trying to remake themselves as a point forward in the pros. To put it simply, it's not their game but it doesn't mean that they don't have game.

Have to admit that I'm completely baffled by your line of logic here. To recap: Adelman gives the young players plenty of minutes (20+ minutes - enough to be in the fringes of the short rotation) to prove he should be on the floor more and has proven that he'll give the young players who do prove that they can help the team win (e.g., Rubio, Smith, Head) more minutes as warranted... but the reason Williams hasn't gotten more than 20 minutes with a handful of DNPCD's isn't because of the fact he's hitting 40% from the floor with slightly below average D, it's because Adelman doesn't give young players a chance. Is this what you're saying?!?

What are you baffled by? I said that even with most of those guys listed, with the exception of only 3 players, they averaged nearly exactly 20 minutes of play during their first couple of seasons under Adelman. Williams is averaging precisely 20 minutes of play during his first 2 seasons under Adelman. What, should I throw all of my focus into him not playing in 4 out of a total 21 games this season or is the relevant point that regardless of the talent level or current production Adelman has an established MO of playing his young guys 20 minutes over a large sample of players? If you want point out that 11 out of the 14 players listed were not deserving of more than 20 minutes playing time during their 1st two seasons under Adelman then be my guest.

In today's game, a prospect entering the draft after 2 years in college is considered "advanced" - especially one who played at a basketball factory like Arizona. We're not talking about a Marvin Williams who was a backup on a veteran laden UNC team with 3 JRs who had NBA careers or a big who was only passing through college to get to the pros. We're talking about someone who led his team to a deep NCAA run and earned numerous accolades. Whereas you don't necessarily expect any prospect to come in and be an immediate star, it isn't too much to think one with so many accolades should have enough talent and/or skill to be able to figure out ways to contribute to the team fairly quickly, definitely within a year+. Maybe he hasn't adjusted from being "the man" to being a contributor, but that's his fault - not Adelman's. Considering our PF situation, I don't see how he'd be "the man" here either, so we're just inheriting someone else's problem. In general, I don't see any need to take someone else's problem unless they're paying me to do so.

I'd have to say that if you are going to make such a definitive sweeping statement about college sophomores being "advanced" that you establish actual evidence because I'm not just going to take you on your or your eye's word. Especially considering that there is a whole slew of lottery drafted "upper" classmen from this draft alone such as Ross, Lamb, Waiters, Robinson, Leonard, and Marshall that are struggling in the time they are getting if they are even getting time. Struggling to develop at a position he never played before because he's stuck behind one of the best PF's in the game is not a reason to knock Williams either but it is a sign of him trying to adapt to a team even if it's at his own detriment. There is no magic wand that a player can flip that makes them just naturally fit whatever a team needs of them.

I know it's easy to stick your head in the sand and say future plans don't matter because there's too many unknowns, but the fact is that Ferry has had the plan to carry the $$ to FA since the day he agreed to the JJ deal. If you don't acknowledge that, then you're simply not playing the same game as the real world. Optimizing the return we could get in FA is our main goal right now and yes, there are many factors and assumptions that would need to be made to get there.

You say this but then explain Ferry making a longterm signing with Louis Williams? Did that not have an impact on next year's salary goals especially when there were short term gunners available too such as Louis' replacement in Philly.? The majority of Ferry's statements have been about longterm franchise building too so I find it rather perplexing that people think he's going to make or break his 6 year tenure here on just one free agent summer. One can say he's banking on all of the deals expiring but who's to say that he's not targeting a trade though this year?

If you think I'm the one who's insisted that Smoove gets maxed, then you've probably misread my statements. I've always said that Josh will be looking for the max and will demand it, but I really don't know what he'll actually get. I do think it's reasonable to assume that he'll get a raise though - 10% on $13.2M puts us @ $14.5M which seems to be a reasonable assumption on his floor. I don't think it's out of the question that he'd take a little less (or, at least, take the floor given here) if Ferry would use the money to put a better team around him, but until I see it, it's a hard assumption.

As far as Teague and FA after D Williams in general, you're not looking far enough. Now sure, if a miracle happens and a D12/CP3/Smoove pairing actually becomes a possibility, then the entire roster changes and there's probably not room for Teague... but having extra money like $5.3M owed to D Williams becomes a mighty big thorn in the side. Sure maybe we could dump D Williams at this point, but the better question is why take him on in the 1st place? You're just creating extra work and probably have to give more value to dump him.

But let's look at the more realistic scenario. 1st, the cap. We currently have ~$18.5M already committed to 3 players and possibly another ~$2.5-2.75M in 2 1st round picks. Adding in Smith at his floor (above), we're somewhere between $33M and $36M or $22M - $25M in cap room (Note here that we can't keep the 2 picks even without Jenkins while offering the max after taking Williams). In FA, the 2 best currently realistic targets would seem to be either Bynum (health concerns, but those would be well-reviewed before signing) for ~$18M or Iguodala (dunno - I'd guess somewhere in the Smoove range - $15-max). Even at the high end, we could clear cap in Jenkins ($1.25M) and the 2 picks to clear up to $8+M to try to fit Teague in. At the low end, we wouldn't even have to dump the young'uns. So, yes, it is a possibility that we could get a max or near max guy and keep the core.

Let's look at the real numbers game though and why I say your plan is an unlikely course of action. The team is at 18.5 mil to 3 players but then you have to add 3.3 mil in just minimum roster capholds for the remaining 7 empty roster slots (7x 473k). Note, we aren't including the draft picks. Using optimistic cap estimations of the limit rising from 58-61 mill, you are looking at 36-39 million before even resigning Smoove at lets say his mentioned floor of 14.5mil. That leaves you with a remainder of 22-24 million for other free agents. If the target is a 7-9 year max then lets be optimistic again and use the starting max salary of 16.4 million. So you now have a remainder of 5.4-8.4 million to resign Teague. Perhaps he, his agent or the market are more than fine with placing him on a salary from the MLE to what Jeremy Lin is making, why not since we're being optimistic about the plan all around.

This is why thinking the team is banking on free agency is a flawed idea. It is a plan dependent on the current free agents, other teams' free agents and the overall landscape of the NBA and salary cap structure all coinciding at once to fulfill a singular goal. Plausible sure, but not likely. Would adding Derrick Williams take that slim chance to none? Sure, but that's only if resigning this core is the primary goal and no other "realistic" scenarios could arise. We already know that resigning guys is expensive and Ferry already dealt with having to clear that out once. As far as looking to the future, the team would already be maxed out in one summer for a depthless roster in this scenario. Not exactly the best way of franchise building now is it nor is it jiving with that "flexibility" word that Ferry likes throwing around. I also doubt other veterans will be taking deep paycuts to join the great likes of Iguodala or Bynum either so again, I think it's rather ridiculous to think that Ferry would turn down turning minimal assets into talented prospects in favor of the chance at maxing out salary on a limited roster.......with Jeff Teague, a guy who is still struggling to impress in his 4th year being the lynchpin.

[azuresou1]

Corey Brewer is one of the most underrated guys in the league.

[MaceCase]

Corey Brewer is one of the most underrated guys in the league.

One of a very few select players that are better sans afro than with.

[Hawk4Playoffs]

The Hawks still don't have a SF. Josh can play SF but not well. Come playoff time we will face Carmelo, Gerald Wallace, Paul Pierce, Loul Deng, Danny Granger, Lebron James, Thaddeus Young...

We really need a SF if we want to go anywhere in the playoffs. Cause with Josh guarding SF position means zaza, horford and josh clogging up the lanes for teague, lou and devin. It means more Josh jumpers. Lets face it, Deshawn isn't the same defensive player he used to be, Korver can't contain those guys.

What SF are available right now? Anybody on the trading block? You can keep arguing that we will get CP3 and Howard through free agency but its not happening. I can't see any possibility of CP3 or Dwight leaving LA. They would be leaving behind a lot of money if they left their respective teams. I really don't see anybody offering Josh the Max... I think 5 year 75 mil is the best Josh is going to get. My point is that we need to build now and stop worrying about 2013 free agency. Trade either Devin Harris, Morrow, Scott, Jenkins, Tolliver and get somebody we can use now. I don't know who we can get... but we certainly need somebody.

[MaceCase]

The Hawks still don't have a SF. Josh can play SF but not well. Come playoff time we will face Carmelo, Gerald Wallace, Paul Pierce, Loul Deng, Danny Granger, Lebron James, Thaddeus Young...

We really need a SF if we want to go anywhere in the playoffs. Cause with Josh guarding SF position means zaza, horford and josh clogging up the lanes for teague, lou and devin. It means more Josh jumpers. Lets face it, Deshawn isn't the same defensive player he used to be, Korver can't contain those guys.

What SF are available right now? Anybody on the trading block? You can keep arguing that we will get CP3 and Howard through free agency but its not happening. I can't see any possibility of CP3 or Dwight leaving LA. They would be leaving behind a lot of money if they left their respective teams. I really don't see anybody offering Josh the Max... I think 5 year 75 mil is the best Josh is going to get. My point is that we need to build now and stop worrying about 2013 free agency. Trade either Devin Harris, Morrow, Scott, Jenkins, Tolliver and get somebody we can use now. I don't know who we can get... but we certainly need somebody.

Agreed, this became appallingly evident during Saturday's game. Kyle has been phenomenal in a team defense role so far but even the Golden State announcers were saying that the plan was to attack through whoever Kyle was guarding....and it worked REALLY well for them.

There are cheap expiring long forwards out there like Brewer and Dorell Wright that could be available but I think that for our expirings, guys like Trevor Ariza, Caron Butler and Tayshaun Prince would be players that their respective teams are more likely to want to dump. Tayshaun is the most productive out of the group but also the longest contract so I think it would depend more on what other assets could be attached to those players to make Ferry want to jump on any deal involving them.

In the back of my head I can see less likely but possible scenarios where Rudy Gay or Luol Deng may be available due to the cap realities of their teams.

[theatlfan]

Well the eyeball test isn't a subjective measure now is it? Fact is that over 60% of his offense comes from the perimeter. Now he could stroke it in college but he's not finding the same success so far in the pros, to speak as if this isn't something that can be addressed with a young player at this stage of their career is folly though. We are seeing the same issue with Thomas Robinson who was a pure post player in college trying to remake themselves as a point forward in the pros. To put it simply, it's not their game but it doesn't mean that they don't have game.
...
What are you baffled by? I said that even with most of those guys listed, with the exception of only 3 players, they averaged nearly exactly 20 minutes of play during their first couple of seasons under Adelman. Williams is averaging precisely 20 minutes of play during his first 2 seasons under Adelman. What, should I throw all of my focus into him not playing in 4 out of a total 21 games this season or is the relevant point that regardless of the talent level or current production Adelman has an established MO of playing his young guys 20 minutes over a large sample of players? If you want point out that 11 out of the 14 players listed were not deserving of more than 20 minutes playing time during their 1st two seasons under Adelman then be my guest.
...
I'd have to say that if you are going to make such a definitive sweeping statement about college sophomores being "advanced" that you establish actual evidence because I'm not just going to take you on your or your eye's word. Especially considering that there is a whole slew of lottery drafted "upper" classmen from this draft alone such as Ross, Lamb, Waiters, Robinson, Leonard, and Marshall that are struggling in the time they are getting if they are even getting time. Struggling to develop at a position he never played before because he's stuck behind one of the best PF's in the game is not a reason to knock Williams either but it is a sign of him trying to adapt to a team even if it's at his own detriment. There is no magic wand that a player can flip that makes them just naturally fit whatever a team needs of them.

Honestly, I had a hard time responding to this; some of this is really borderline insulting.

1st, Adelman and his handling of younger players. Saying you're going with a "larger sample size" is a simple fallacy. This group you're throwing away is a part of the overall sample size, and by throwing away any particular grouping just invalidates any conclusions - this is just basic statistics. The fact that you dismiss a group is bad enough, but to throw it away simply because it's an inconvenient fact to your argument is simply childish. Honestly, if we're going to debate something, then I expect more than just sophomoric trashing of facts that refute your argument. This is 2x true when the guys you're throwing out only include a guy that was waived the year after he was under Adelman and another that actually got the 2nd most minutes of his career within his "first few seasons".

2nd, I mentioned that I don't expect any prospect to necessarily adapt to the NBA game immediately, but that kids who stick with college generally adapt to a role better than younger guys. So, you go back all of 6 months to dispute this?!? C'mon, I had right there that I'd give a kid a year. Instead of walking back even to the previous draft where you can see kids like Enes Kanter and Tobias Harris - two guys that have generally had positive reviews out of their respective teams even though they haven't been able to break 20 minutes per - and guys like Klay Thompson, Marcus Morris, K Leonard, and Shumpert who've altered their roles from being "the man" in college to be a contributor on their team early. Now, nothing is a sure thing in the draft and yes, there will be some flops, some guys who'll take longer, and some who can only play one way at any level for any classification, but this isn't something that I'm opining as much as I'm parroting and there is some logic behind the hypothesis. H3ll, maybe it's wrong, I don't know, but you definitely made a lazy effort, at best, to dispute it and ending up just wasting time in both yours writing it and whoever's in reading it.

3rd (for now), you conveniently side-step the questions at the heart of the matter here. How are we in a situation to cure the fixes that you bring up to fix D Williams as a player (his measurables are good for a PF; he needs minutes)? Sure, he's behind Love and Dante Cunningham in MIN, but we've got two AS (at least in our FO's mind) in front of him here. What makes you think we're a better situation to help what ails him?

Look, I know that many view me as a D Williams hater - and maybe I am. Even some of the things that you say to defend him (60% of O comes from perimeter; shooting is busted; may need to change something mentally) are really the reasons I wouldn't bother with him. Yes, I still think he's a 'tweener (I gave up on the measurables argument since a) it was starting to get into minutiae and b) I really didn't care anymore - BTW, the SF measurables are for Smoove) and think he needs to reinvent his game (or maybe as you say, re-find the way to play the game he left in college) to even become a competent starter - so forth All-NBA. But I'm willing to put these aside to hear you out, but instead, I'm just subjected to this lazy and childish riposte.

You say this but then explain Ferry making a longterm signing with Louis Williams? Did that not have an impact on next year's salary goals especially when there were short term gunners available too such as Louis' replacement in Philly.? The majority of Ferry's statements have been about longterm franchise building too so I find it rather perplexing that people think he's going to make or break his 6 year tenure here on just one free agent summer. One can say he's banking on all of the deals expiring but who's to say that he's not targeting a trade though this year?

OK, most of this is a fantastic embellishment which is nothing more than another childish attack. Where did I say that going into FA was "make or break" for Ferry? All I said was it was a "better opportunit[y]" than taking on what amounts to being a salary dump for MIN. I didn't even say it's the best opportunity, just think that it's a baseline that any trade where we take on salary has to beat. Don't project something onto me or put words in my mouth. I honestly expect better.

As far as why he signed him, it's simple: he was the player we wanted at a price we couldn't refuse. Ferry has also made it clear that he expects to remain competitive throughout his tenure and signing good players at great values is a no brainer acquisition. If you search through some of the articles on Peachtree Hoops, you'll see that one of the writers there is a (former?) poster here named Evil Dallas. In the writeups he shows that the expected production to price of the current team far outstrips that of our previous incarnations and a big part of that is L Williams thanks to an AS level PER and a MLE salary. I tend to agree here.

Let's look at the real numbers game though and why I say your plan is an unlikely course of action. The team is at 18.5 mil to 3 players but then you have to add 3.3 mil in just minimum roster capholds for the remaining 7 empty roster slots (7x 473k). Note, we aren't including the draft picks. Using optimistic cap estimations of the limit rising from 58-61 mill, you are looking at 36-39 million before even resigning Smoove at lets say his mentioned floor of 14.5mil. That leaves you with a remainder of 22-24 million for other free agents. If the target is a 7-9 year max then lets be optimistic again and use the starting max salary of 16.4 million. So you now have a remainder of 5.4-8.4 million to resign Teague. Perhaps he, his agent or the market are more than fine with placing him on a salary from the MLE to what Jeremy Lin is making, why not since we're being optimistic about the plan all around.

... Or possibly as much as $.5M less than what Nash signed for. If he buys into what we're selling, then this seems reasonable. Thanks for these numbers.

This is why thinking the team is banking on free agency is a flawed idea. It is a plan dependent on the current free agents, other teams' free agents and the overall landscape of the NBA and salary cap structure all coinciding at once to fulfill a singular goal. Plausible sure, but not likely. Would adding Derrick Williams take that slim chance to none? Sure, but that's only if resigning this core is the primary goal and no other "realistic" scenarios could arise. We already know that resigning guys is expensive and Ferry already dealt with having to clear that out once. As far as looking to the future, the team would already be maxed out in one summer for a depthless roster in this scenario. Not exactly the best way of franchise building now is it nor is it jiving with that "flexibility" word that Ferry likes throwing around. I also doubt other veterans will be taking deep paycuts to join the great likes of Iguodala or Bynum either so again, I think it's rather ridiculous to think that Ferry would turn down turning minimal assets into talented prospects in favor of the chance at maxing out salary on a limited roster.......with Jeff Teague, a guy who is still struggling to impress in his 4th year being the lynchpin.

As I said above, I'm not sure that going to FA is the best opportunity (really don't know the other opportunities to compare it to). It's just a baseline opportunity to compare other things to. Losing this opportunity to take on a salary dump where the payment is a currently flawed player who you're even arguing should stay at the same position as our two best players is definitely worse than this baseline. I think Ferry is carrying a 3 year plan - Year 1) clear out the dead weight in terms of production vs price (JJ and Marvin... at least so far); Year 2) put together the championship core to go forward with (FA is just one way to do that); Year 3) finish assembling the pieces to surround the core. Sure, in year 2 it will be harder to assemble the depth needed, but the hope would be that, similar to MIA, there's proof that the team is working with a deep playoff run. When Year 3 comes around, it becomes a much easier sales pitch to convince the role players that we could make a legitimate run at a title.

[MaceCase]

Honestly, I had a hard time responding to this; some of this is really borderline insulting.

1st, Adelman and his handling of younger players. Saying you're going with a "larger sample size" is a simple fallacy. This group you're throwing away is a part of the overall sample size, and by throwing away any particular grouping just invalidates any conclusions - this is just basic statistics. The fact that you dismiss a group is bad enough, but to throw it away simply because it's an inconvenient fact to your argument is simply childish. Honestly, if we're going to debate something, then I expect more than just sophomoric trashing of facts that refute your argument. This is 2x true when the guys you're throwing out only include a guy that was waived the year after he was under Adelman and another that actually got the 2nd most minutes of his career within his "first few seasons".

Listen I'm not really invested enough in this matter to really tolerate your sensitivity over alleged insults no matter how flowery written it may all be. Fact is if you are going to create a list and continually add to said list and at the end of said list the overwhelming majority of examples fit more with a current example then alas, the few that do not are thus in my mind exceptions. Rather simple, if 75%-80% followed the same course as a current example then I can very easily establish that as the prevailing trend. If you want to focus on the 20-25% of that sample and somehow attribute that to being more definitive of the whole then be my guest, it's your prerogative but alas again, I'm sure you'll find this as a poorly veiled insult. I for one am not invested enough in a hypothetical trade idea to delve deep into the specific circumstances that influenced the majority of those players averaging only 20 minutes in their first few seasons under a specific coach. All I know is that at a glance, only 3 stand out from what I'm currently seeing with Williams.

2nd, I mentioned that I don't expect any prospect to necessarily adapt to the NBA game immediately, but that kids who stick with college generally adapt to a role better than younger guys. So, you go back all of 6 months to dispute this?!? C'mon, I had right there that I'd give a kid a year. Instead of walking back even to the previous draft where you can see kids like Enes Kanter and Tobias Harris - two guys that have generally had positive reviews out of their respective teams even though they haven't been able to break 20 minutes per - and guys like Klay Thompson, Marcus Morris, K Leonard, and Shumpert who've altered their roles from being "the man" in college to be a contributor on their team early. Now, nothing is a sure thing in the draft and yes, there will be some flops, some guys who'll take longer, and some who can only play one way at any level for any classification, but this isn't something that I'm opining as much as I'm parroting and there is some logic behind the hypothesis. H3ll, maybe it's wrong, I don't know, but you definitely made a lazy effort, at best, to dispute it and ending up just wasting time in both yours writing it and whoever's in reading it.

We can play this game forever, we can walk back just another draft and make note of college sophomores and juniors such as Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Al-Farouq Aminu, Gordon Hayward/Alec Burks, Cole Aldrich, Patrick Patterson, Ed Davis and Larry Sanders struggling to make any appreciable impact until their 3rd seasons if that. It has nothing to do with him being "the man" and having to reduce his role. You are using examples of players that are utilizing their exact skillset from college in the pros or at the minimum filling in at the same position that they played in college. Why the fact his role and position is already being occupied by a player by the name of Kevin Love is being omitted I have no idea. It's as if his present circumstance has zero meaning to you as you are railing against him for failing to reinvent himself as an entirely different type of player than what he was in school.

3rd (for now), you conveniently side-step the questions at the heart of the matter here. How are we in a situation to cure the fixes that you bring up to fix D Williams as a player (his measurables are good for a PF; he needs minutes)? Sure, he's behind Love and Dante Cunningham in MIN, but we've got two AS (at least in our FO's mind) in front of him here. What makes you think we're a better situation to help what ails him?

Look, I know that many view me as a D Williams hater - and maybe I am. Even some of the things that you say to defend him (60% of O comes from perimeter; shooting is busted; may need to change something mentally) are really the reasons I wouldn't bother with him. Yes, I still think he's a 'tweener (I gave up on the measurables argument since a) it was starting to get into minutiae and b) I really didn't care anymore - BTW, the SF measurables are for Smoove) and think he needs to reinvent his game (or maybe as you say, re-find the way to play the game he left in college) to even become a competent starter - so forth All-NBA. But I'm willing to put these aside to hear you out, but instead, I'm just subjected to this lazy and childish riposte.

For one, he can succeed at what he knows here in Atlanta. His skillset is that of a back to basket player who can also face up and attack from 15 feet and in, something neither Al or Josh are willing or capable of doing consistently. Unlike in Minnesota where (you're going to hate this) Love's inferior to a SF's measurables (6'7.75", 6'11.25" wingspan, 8'10" standing reach") prevents then from playing in consistent lineups together, we know that Al can play C fulltime and Josh can spot at SF. Larry Drew already utilizes this lineup with Ivan to a lot of success and I believe that Williams could increase the potential of it. Looking forward it also creates flexibility for the team heading into free agency. If Josh decides to pull an Elton Brand/Carlos Boozer/Hedo Turkoglu/Lebron James and bolt or just prices himself out of Ferry's desires then there is a contingency with a potential replacement. If the big CP3/Dwight dream is looking like a reality and Al has to be moved to clear up necessary salary then you have a contingency for a cheaper replacement already on the roster. If Ivan, Zaza and Tolliver (yes, that's meant as a joke) bolt for literally greener pastures you also have a position of depth already filled, etc. etc.

OK, most of this is a fantastic embellishment which is nothing more than another childish attack. Where did I say that going into FA was "make or break" for Ferry? All I said was it was a "better opportunit[y]" than taking on what amounts to being a salary dump for MIN. I didn't even say it's the best opportunity, just think that it's a baseline that any trade where we take on salary has to beat. Don't project something onto me or put words in my mouth. I honestly expect better.

As far as why he signed him, it's simple: he was the player we wanted at a price we couldn't refuse. Ferry has also made it clear that he expects to remain competitive throughout his tenure and signing good players at great values is a no brainer acquisition. If you search through some of the articles on Peachtree Hoops, you'll see that one of the writers there is a (former?) poster here named Evil Dallas. In the writeups he shows that the expected production to price of the current team far outstrips that of our previous incarnations and a big part of that is L Williams thanks to an AS level PER and a MLE salary. I tend to agree here.

Oh, cut the theatrics. Did you not say this exactly?:

.....but the fact is that Ferry has had the plan to carry the $$ to FA since the day he agreed to the JJ deal. If you don't acknowledge that, then you're simply not playing the same game as the real world. Optimizing the return we could get in FA is our main goal right now...

Did I put those words in your post? Does the Louis Williams deal not fly in the face of that exact quote? His signing came after the JJ trade and it directly impacts money available in 2013's free agency so really now.

Here's the thing, you can disregard (Derrick) Williams all you want but I also think that he could help the team remain competitive and at a price (Jenkins and Morrow) we couldn't refuse. Louis is a bargain for sure but Williams is also putting up an above league average PER with the potential for more while also being on the equivalent of a MLE deal.

... Or possibly as much as $.5M less than what Nash signed for. If he buys into what we're selling, then this seems reasonable. Thanks for these numbers.

Yes, we can expect that our free agents will be just as willing to forego a major payday in their 20s as a 38 year old looking to ring chase at the end of their career. This type of thinking worked out well for OKC in their negotiations with Harden.

As I said above, I'm not sure that going to FA is the best opportunity (really don't know the other opportunities to compare it to). It's just a baseline opportunity to compare other things to. Losing this opportunity to take on a salary dump where the payment is a currently flawed player who you're even arguing should stay at the same position as our two best players is definitely worse than this baseline. I think Ferry is carrying a 3 year plan - Year 1) clear out the dead weight in terms of production vs price (JJ and Marvin... at least so far); Year 2) put together the championship core to go forward with (FA is just one way to do that); Year 3) finish assembling the pieces to surround the core. Sure, in year 2 it will be harder to assemble the depth needed, but the hope would be that, similar to MIA, there's proof that the team is working with a deep playoff run. When Year 3 comes around, it becomes a much easier sales pitch to convince the role players that we could make a legitimate run at a title.

The baseline in all of this is that you view Williams as nothing more than a salary dump. If that's your thinking from the beginning then all of the rest of your arguments will follow suit. Fact is that a trade like this fulfills a need for Minnesota in that it gives them two SGs when all they have healthy is Shved at the expense of a talented prospect that is unlikely to fulfill their potential behind Love on a team looking desperately to make the playoffs at the end of a long rebuild. Make no mistake, they are giving up the best player in the deal but shoring up a position of need from a position of strength with the added benefit of being able to free up salary perhaps to resign Pekovic. That is what makes the value equal out and even make a proposal like this plausible.

The Hawks have a more versatile roster due to length and athleticism that can accommodate Derrick Williams just like the team has done for Louis Williams despite having Teague and Harris already. We've managed to establish that the salary is only restrictive if maintaining the core is the plan to go along with a max player but even you admit that Bynum and Iguodala would be the mostly likely signees....That doesn't scream contending for a championship. That looks no different than the previous rosters with Joe and Marvin as far as upside an its ability to attract top tier vets on minimum deals. The core can just as easily be retained and a lower tier free agent(s) be signed or traded for with the rest of the money either being rolled over to the future or utilized in trades. It's not the end of the world or even having as dramatic an effect on the cap as you are making it out to be so just leave it at that.

[Hawk4Playoffs]

Agreed with MaceAce.

[Geaux_Hawks]

I think this is a great time to pick up a great talent with upside. Williams could be a good fit here..