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Would y'all please check my math, 'cuz I think I'm right.

The most anyone can offer Howard this offseason is 30% of the cap, because he has 8 years of service. In his 9th year, he'd be eligible for 35% of the cap.

So:
In year one, LA and ATL will pay him exactly the same - 30% of the cap number set by the NBA (probably around $60 million).
In year 2, LA will pay him 7.5% more than year 1; ATL will pay him 4.5% more.
In year 3, LA will pay him 7.5% more than year 2; ATL will pay him 4.5% more.
In year 4, LA will pay him 7.5% more (it's adding up, isn't it?); ATL still can only pay him 4.5% more.

However, in year 5, LA will only be able to pay him 7.5% more than year 4, while ATL can re-sign him at the NEW MAX: 35%. Boooom. That makes up for the advantage LA had earlier.
Whats more, in year 6, LA will have to offer the same deal ATL gave him THE YEAR BEFORE: 35%, while ATL is happily paying him 7.5% more ... and it compounds from there.
Going one step farther, the cap ceiling will almost definitely be larger by then, if not rising every year, because the NBA will negotiate a new TV deal the same year ATL would re-sign Howard (2016), so the cap could be huge.

That means that for 4 years the Lakers can pay him more than any other team but that's made up in the 5th year and every year after that other team could pay him more.

What prevents him and the Lakers from just signing a 4 year deal with all of the higher pay raises and then negotiating a bigger max on his next deal?

I agree but have you heard of anyone even mentioning he might sign for 4 years?

What I'm afraid of is that I'm wrong but can't find where.

I'm not a 'capologist' (just ask Mace ), but other factors to keep in mind from a financial perspective:

Dallas, TX (Dwight's second choice) has no state tax. You're talking a few million saved over the life of the contract, at least.

The endorsement/appearance income from playing in LA (or even Brooklyn) would be fairly substantial compared with playing for a 2nd tier team in a midlevel market like ATL. This additional income could easily compensate for any lost revenue any player might receive for playing in Atlanta.

So I don't come off as Debbie Downer, we at least have lower cost of living expenses than NY or LA.

If we could some how convince Dwight to sign with ATL... resign Josh, teague, korver and Ivan.

C - Dwight / filler?
PF - Horford / Ivan
SF - Josh / Korver
SG - Lou / Jenkins
PG - Teague / filler?

I don't know if Atlanta has money for that... but if they did. WOW!

parson wrote:I agree but have you heard of anyone even mentioning he might sign for 4 years?

What I'm afraid of is that I'm wrong but can't find where.

It's not wrong it's just a feeble premise, really. Whatever advantage you think would be available to him if he signed elsewhere would still be available to the Lakers to go along with the higher pay raises.

Let's just put it this way, he could negotiate option years into the deal (an ETO or PO on both or either of the 4th and 5th year) just like every other max deal there is in the league (excluding Joe Johnson who you can read a lot into that decision) allowing him the flexibility to view the landscape and decide whether he should just keep the extra 25 or if he can recoup most of it on a new deal.

He can also go a more radical route and take a 1 year deal which will put him into the higher experience max bracket right at the end of it and go from there.



Overall I don't see the money or extra year to be much of an advantage regardless because guys like Garnett have been getting numerous lucrative deals (one on which he took a paycut on) during their 30s so we shouldn't believe that Dwight is beholden to the Lakers as though they are the only ones capable of offering him his last big contract.

Ferry seems to have an expert read of the pulse of the NBA, if he feel like the Hawks have a good chance of getting Dwight, then they do.

he knew he could get rid of Joe, he knew he could get rid of Marvin, he knew that Jenkins was a good pick and he knew that Louis would be a good signing, so if he feels like he and Josh can make a good offer to Dwight this summer, then that should be a good sign for Atlanta.

Would "Bird Rights" come into play in who can offer him the most?

BAMABIRD wrote:Would "Bird Rights" come into play in who can offer him the most?

That's precisely what this discussion is about, Bird free agent contract versus a non Bird free agent contract.

Well according to rumors Atlanta/Dallas has already called LA about Dwight but we turned down the trade offers.

What do you think Ferry offered? Horford/fillers for D12

Cashin out wrote:Well according to rumors Atlanta/Dallas has already called LA about Dwight but we turned down the trade offers.

What do you think Ferry offered? Horford/fillers for D12

I think it was a Horford deal, but LA prolly demanded someone like Lou or Teague and we felt that it wasn't worth it because we wouldn't have a PG

Cashin out wrote:Well according to rumors Atlanta/Dallas has already called LA about Dwight but we turned down the trade offers.

"We" turned the offer down? Not doubting you (I'm actually wondering about the writer) but I'd love to see that link.

parson wrote:

Cashin out wrote:Well according to rumors Atlanta/Dallas has already called LA about Dwight but we turned down the trade offers.

"We" turned the offer down? Not doubting you (I'm actually wondering about the writer) but I'd love to see that link.

I got it from the LakersUnderground, I think it was a yahoo report saying Atlanta/Dallas has already called about Dwight but the Lakers wasn't interested in trading Dwight right now.

Cashin out wrote:

parson wrote:

Cashin out wrote:Well according to rumors Atlanta/Dallas has already called LA about Dwight but we turned down the trade offers.

"We" turned the offer down? Not doubting you (I'm actually wondering about the writer) but I'd love to see that link.

I got it from the LakersUnderground, I think it was a yahoo report saying Atlanta/Dallas has already called about Dwight but the Lakers wasn't interested in trading Dwight right now.

So, you're a Laker fan, gotcha. I thought you might be saying the Hawks turned them down. I was interested in what we'd think is too much.

I sincerely doubt that the discussion even got to the point where actual proposals and counter-proposals were discussed. A lot of times rival GMs just call up, say "think we can discuss player X?" and they get the response "absolutely not". You don't just call someone up and show your best hand, you gotta get a feel for what you can get away with otherwise you've left yourself nowhere to negotiate from.

Ya think?

On the trade machine, interestingly enough a trade with Al, Zaza and Teague for D12 still turns favorable to LA...
If zaza and teague is not what LA wants, let's trade them + ATL 1st for a nice package to add to Horford.

That being said, I am not so hot about getting D12 anymore since he has proven that he could pretty much poison a team as he did in ORL (last year) or now LA rather than help them reach a higher level...

Here is a thought:

Howard and LAL 2nd to ATL

Horford, Cousins , Fredette and HOU 2nd to LAL

Teague, Zaza, Jamison, HOU 1st to SAC

FCNATL85 wrote:Here is a thought:

Howard and LAL 2nd to ATL

Horford, Cousins , Fredette and HOU 2nd to LAL

Teague, Zaza, Jamison, HOU 1st to SAC

If that's all it takes to get Cousins then just cut LAL out and lets take Cousins for ourselves. Give them one of our expirings instead (Morrow?)
PG: Devin
SG: Korver
SF: Josh
PF: Horford
C: Cousins

Nasty