Why Al Horford isn't a Power Forward

[Rip2137]

I know, I am probably the last one that points this out, but I want to use this as my means to point out why.

Al Horford Scouting from me:

Excellent without the ball and GREAT hands. Uses his quickness to get to the right spot on the court and finishes well around the rim off those catches. Smart player that reads the defense well off picks. Knows when to pop, knows when to dive(sounds simple but so few players in the leage "get it" now).

NO post game. Size of defender doesn't matter. He has 1 consistant move in his offense game with his back to the basket...hard dribble towards the middle, spin back towards the baseline for layup/baby hook. His hook shot, fade away and other post moves are severly lacking.

Deadly midrage jumpshot that he can get off quickly and hit with amazing consistancy.

Defensively, uses his quickness and strength effectively against larger offensive players but tends to get in foul trouble against guys that are more physical. Has trouble guarding quicker, faceup bigs that have a quick first step. Great in the pick and roll showing on guards and getting back to his man. So-so on defensive rotations alot of times off the ball.

Rebounding, its either his rebound or we might not get it. Doesn't consisntantly block out and often tries to block out late. His quickness to the ball hides this alot, but often doesn't put a body on the ball.

Now, at Center, Al's quickness off the ball is apparent. He routinely backdoors the bigger guys, out runs them up the court, getting to the spot and finishes before they can get there. He uses his jab step effectively against Centers as they fear his quickness in face up situations. This often leads to him getting his jumper off effectively. Him being guarded by the rim defender also opens up his jumper as well.

At PF, Al's quickness is average to below average. He will find getting open harder when not matched up with a slower guy. When not being guarded by a guy considerably slower than him laterally, they can take a extra step up, negating some of the room he gets with the threat of quickness for his jumper. When not being guarded by the rim defender he will find fewer opportunities for the wide open midrange jumper.

Defensively, guys with quick face up games get him in foul trouble quickly. He will face this nightly playing the 4 full time.

This is why I feel the perfect front court mate for Al would be a 4 with a quick face up game AND a post game that demands a double. Josh not having any semblance of a post game is hindering Al more than Al playing Center instead of the 4.

At the 4 we need a guy with a good post game, but is too quick for the other team to cross match and put their Center on him to negate it. But I think we have a SPECIAL Center that will be average by having him step over full time.

[tcorbin]

On another thread, i mentioned that i would prefer Millsap over Jefferson if the Hawks can't get Dwight or Peck.

Free agents to get or re-sign if Dwight doesn't come?
http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1229573

[Rip2137]

I like Jefferson as he can hit the face up jumper(so you still have to give him room) and he is top 5 in the league with his back to the basket and command a double. He has never shown he can effectively pass out of the double, however, but that can be helped.

[Jamaaliver]

Your assessment of AL's skillset seems fairly accurate.

I have to be honest. I'm not even sure it matters which position we call it anymore. I agree that we need another big with a skillset that fully complements AL's abilities.

But he plays both positions pretty effectively every single game. Anytime Zaza comes in and AL is on the court with him, AL is essentially playing PF. Whether he's guarding the opposing Center or not.

My concern with AL at Center is that he gets dominated by much bigger guys with lesseer abilities. Asik is a prime example. At 7'0" tall with a reach that puts him about 12 feet in the air, he simply outrebounds our smallish froncourt without jumping. Thusly, he averaged 18 rpg against us. A bigger body prevents Asik from getting those rebounds just by better blocking him out.

The entire time Josh and AL have been together, we've been one of the weaker rebounding teams in the league.

At PF, AL and can still run the pick and roll (pick and fade, pick and pop) still run the fast break. And more easily guard players his own size. (I can't wait for the first matchup of josh versus AL next season.)

And we see this pretty much every single game.

[GrimeyKidd]

Hes a tweener between PF/C i think he plays both accurately well its just theirs alot of bigger guys out their thats why we like him at his original position him and josh

[tcorbin]

I don't think their is much argument here.

Dwight is a no brainer.

Peck would be a good investment for any team.

Jefferson although has some flaws, would finally give the Hawks a low post scorer.

Millsap would keep Horford at center, but Millsap's ability to hit jumpers, ability to move without the ball, run the floor, high IQ, and rebound and defend at a high rate would fit in perfectly into Drew/Ferry's San Antonio style of offense.

Kaman could be a value pick up, he could be slightly better than Zaza, but i don't think he would be enough to push the Hawks pass the second round of the playoffs.

that only leaves David West and Elton Brand for debate. I really don't like either guys, even though they have a good jump shot, they don't rebound or defend at a high rate, and they don't run the floor well.

[Rip2137]

I just don't think the size issues is a legit issue come playoff time and won't be for a long time. Chandler, Noah, whatever the heat are trotting out...that doesn't hurt us. And lets be honest, Al Horford owns Roy Hibbert.

Lopez might be a problem, but dude isn't a very effective rebounder so we won't get hurt there and there aren't many guys in the league that can fend off his offensive game if Deron and joe ever decide to enter the ball to the post.

The only teams with size are those fringe teams out west and honestly, who cares. They aren't making the finals. I just feel that Al is a elite center and a slightly above average power forward. I would rather him be elite and get beat on the boards sometimes than be slightly above average and cancel out the rest of his game.

[Jamaaliver]

Fair enough.

Keep in mind that AL is averaging GREATER than 17 ppg and 10 rpg when starting at PF with Zaza at Center this season. That's 11 games now and counting. He's also avg 20 ppg and 10 rpg in games Josh doesn't play.

The sample size is growing, but, as always, AL's performances are holding steady.

[Rip2137]

You are ignoring defensive and offensive breakdowns in those games. The past few games, that might have been the starting lineup but they went away from it really quickly and didn't even start the second half with that lineup.

Just because he starts there doesn't mean he plays most of the game there. Generally on of the first subs on those nights is Korver for zaza, putting the lineup right back to normal.

[Jamaaliver]

Most of those games came from earlier in the season, last month, etc.

I used only a single game from the last few weeks, I also focused only on games where Zaza started and played significant minutes at Center.

Think Josh suspension vs Brooklyn, the Indiana game Josh sat out, etc.

The numbers bear out and have for years now.

AL literally plays PF all the time.

[parson]

Just because he starts there doesn't mean he plays most of the game there. Generally on of the first subs on those nights is Korver for zaza, putting the lineup right back to normal.

Ahem:

He's also avg 20 ppg and 10 rpg in games Josh doesn't play.

Dear Smith fans,
Why did it have to be Smith versus Marvelous?
Why did it have to be Smith versus Joe?
Why does it have to be Smith versus Horford?

[GrimeyKidd]

Just because he starts there doesn't mean he plays most of the game there. Generally on of the first subs on those nights is Korver for zaza, putting the lineup right back to normal.

Ahem:

He's also avg 20 ppg and 10 rpg in games Josh doesn't play.

Dear Smith fans,
Why did it have to be Smith versus Marvelous?
Why did it have to be Smith versus Joe?
Why does it have to be Smith versus Horford?

Everyone unite. Josh and Al do their jobs so theirs no debate

[Jamaaliver]

Everyone unite. Josh and Al do their jobs so theirs no debate

The problem with that thinking...we're in 5th place in the East and only 13th place of all the teams in the league.

The two together have have very limited success. No division titles. No Conference titles. Bottom of the league in rebounding.

They combine to form a very capable duo. But we;re still just very average with them together.

[_BBIB_]

Remember when people though Josh Smith was a Small Forward?

I made the same arguments then that seem obvious now.

Josh Smith ball handling and driving ability for a small forward were average. His shooting for a small forward was severely below average

Putting him at Power Forward makes him above average to elite for driving and ball handling for a PF, and although still not a great shooter still not as woeful compared to other PFs than compared to other SFs

Also puts him more around the basket where his shot blocking and altering abilities are more into play.


It's the same for Horford. Horford has ELITE shooting, athleticism, etc for a Center.

Now sure he may be undersized in the traditional sense but guess what THIS IS NOT A TRADITIONAL ERA


There are no Hakeems, Shaqs, or even Ewings

[_BBIB_]

Everyone unite. Josh and Al do their jobs so theirs no debate

The problem with that thinking...we're in 5th place in the East and only 13th place of all the teams in the league.

The two together have have very limited success. No division titles. No Conference titles. Bottom of the league in rebounding.

They combine to form a very capable duo. But we;re still just very average with them together.

Look again kid. We're 9th in the league and 4th in the East.

And the two of them alone can't win but with the progression of Jeff Teague this team has a much higher ceiling

And that's even without adding another option which they will have plenty of money to do.

We had an Iguodola and we can compete with any team in the league with those 4 players

[Jamaaliver]

Any suggestions about what to do when do come across a large frontline?

We've seen AL get pummeled by Asik, Noah, Hibbert, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez.

We've even seen Josh get pushed around as an undersized PF. We've been consistently one of the worse rebounding teams with AL and Josh in the frontcourt. We can't keep on switching starting lineups everytime we face a real center, can we?

It's a serious flaw on our team. One that could be exploited by a lesser team like BKN, NY, Indy.

[parson]

Well, we could move Smith to SF and Horford to PF but that would contradict the OP, wouldn't it?

[Jamaaliver]

Well, we could move Smith to SF and Horford to PF but that would contradict the OP, wouldn't it?

That's kind of what I'm getting at. I'm of the belief that AL can be as effective ( or even more) if he plays PF and gets to play against smaller guys.

Even with this impressive stretch of games recently, I'm not in favor of keeping Josh. Not at PF or SF.

I hypothesize that a Defensive SF and a post scoring Center makes us a tougher match.

[parson]

^Sure, a good post scorer (who would be good on defense) would help. How many are there of those?

I say we keep Smith, we keep Horford and we try to plug in a Center (Getting the best Center in the NBA would be nice, of course). Seems to me that we'll need either a good Center if we keep Smith or a great Center if we lose him. Finding a good one is more likely.

[Jamaaliver]

^

I say we keep Smith, we keep Horford and we try to plug in a Center (Getting the best Center in the NBA would be nice, of course). Seems to me that we'll need either a good Center if we keep Smith or a great Center if we lose him. Finding a good one is more likely.

Their pairing has its moments, but they don't fully complement each other. (They are both undersized, have limited post games, neither is a consistent offensive threat.)

Their passing is great, sometimes, but we've seen these two for 5+ years now and not bear much fruit.