Azure's FA signing (No CP3/Dwight)

[azuresou1]

As is, we only have Horford, Lou Will, and Jenkins under contract next year, with Josh/Jeff being FAs. Here is my offseason FA signing plan, based on player performance this past year. This assumes that any players we draft are not going to be ready to contribute this immediate year.

Move 1: Resign Jeff Teague - 5/38
As a RFA, resigning Teague will be cheaper than signing a FA PG of the same tier. Plus, always good to have some continuity.

Move 2: Sign Tiago Splitter - 4/42 offer
Splitter was one of the most underrated players these past few seasons. I have him as my 12th 'best' big man by VORP, ahead of Marc Gasol, and 19th in terms of actual production. He can also play the 5, unlike other good FA bigs like Paul Millsap. He also is currently a Spur and there's some nice continuity working with Coach Bud.

Move 3: Sign wing depth - Matt Barnes & Dorell Wright - 2/6 each
Both these guys should be cheap and undervalued - Barnes because he somehow ALWAYS gets underpaid, and Wright because I don't think many teams are hunting for SFs. Both these guys are excellent bench contributors who can shoot, don't take bad shots, and play respectable defense. They're not starter caliber, but between the two of them we can get a full 48 minutes at the 3, with situational rotation (Wright for offense, Barnes for defense).

Move 4: Sign Monta Ellis - 2/20, team option 2nd year
I feel dirty about this signing because I don't quite LOVE Monta, and he definitely has his flaws. However, he produced a solid $8M in value this season, he's entering his prime, and the market for SGs is dry and barren this year. Seriously - it's wretched. With a team option for the 2nd year, we can cut ties if this experiment doesn't work out.

Move 5: Resign Kyle Korver - 3/15, team option 3rd year
The SF FA market is pretty wretched too. This contract is actually slightly under what Korver produced this year, but he's getting older/past his prime so we shouldn't overpay. He's also one of the most one-way players in the league (although surprisingly NOT a defensive liability).

Move 6: Resign Ivan Johnson - 3/8
Hopefully he hasn't played himself out of our range. He produced, and was a very good two way player. I want him to become the new Zaza... speaking of which...

Move 7: Resign Zaza Pachulia - 4/5
Zaza's not very good at this point and can't stay healthy. Still, I'd like him to retire with the Hawks, and have this be his last contract.

I didn't include FA signings that I would love, but I think are improbable (e.g. Jarrett Jack, who's probably gonna stay in GS)

Final roster:
Jeff Teague/Lou Williams
Monta Ellis/John Jenkins
Kyle Korver/Matt Barnes/Dorell Wright
Al Horford/Ivan Johnson
Tiago Splitter/Zaza Pachulia
+ whoever we draft

Total FA spending: $41M
Total Salary: $59M

Estimated VORP/Value Starting Roster: 2923% Offensive, 351% Defensive, 3274% Total VORP, $42.7M production
Estimated Total Roster Value: $58.7M production

For comparison:
Indiana Pacers starting 5: 2098% O, 899% D, 2997% Total, $39.5M production
Indiana Pacers top 10 players: $46.6M production

For **** and giggles:
Miami Heat Starting Roster: 3359% O, 467% D, 3826% Total, $76.1M production

Note that values can change based on the rest of the team and as players develop, but I think we can build a team which is as if not more competitive than the Pacers while remaining under the cap and WITHOUT getting Dwight or CP3 with smart signings and building depth... still not touching Miami though.

Thoughts?

[parson]

Move 1 depends on Budenholzer's vision.
Move 2 is a good idea.
Moves 3 and 5 cancel each other out.
Move 4 would push out Lou Williams. Plus, he's a me-1st kind of guy who would destroy a passing offense.
Moves 6 and 7 are fond hopes of mine.

[GrimeyKidd]

While i agree with zazas health issues i wouldnt say hes not good anymore thats a bit of a stretch

[ATL Boy]

Are you sure Zaza would give us that kind of a discount? I mean 5 mil overall for 4 years is only just over 1 mil a year, he's a sufficient backup C who will get interest from other teams.

Other than that what Parson said basically

[Jamaaliver]

While i agree with zazas health issues i wouldnt say hes not good anymore thats a bit of a stretch

I'm with Grimey on this one. Zaza has proven to be one of the best backup bigs in the league and is even capable of filling in as a starter on occasion. (AL's injury, when we run the Big lineup)

I certainly hope he comes back.

Is Splitter really $10 million better than Zaza?

Splitter avg 11 ppg and 7 rpg as a starter last year.
Zaza avg 7 ppg and 8 rpg as a starter last year.

[tcorbin]

.... Monta Ellis

I would rather go with Al Jefferson. Finally give Horford a true post player.

[Jamaaliver]

.... Monta Ellis

I would rather go with Al Jefferson. Finally give Horford a true post player.

I'm with tcorbin on this one.

Especially with BUD implementing a Ball Movement offense. Golden State became a much better team once he was traded and Milwaukee fans seem to want him to go.

If we thought JJ was a ball stopper, Monta is a blackhole.

I'd rather just bring Devin back.

[jagstang76]

I agree. I'm not a fan of Ellis. He's not really a star and will only score for you. Much like Carmelo, it can only take you so far.

I like the idea of getting Splitter if DH is out. I thought he was restricted though? That would it tough to nab him.

At SF, I would like to have Korver back and add a Barnes type player. The idea of them splitting time and having situational options would be great.

Definitely bring back Zaza! He might be on the back end of his career, but he's still a quality guy who always brings energy.

Finally, I like Teague a lot. Barring us landing CP3, I want him on this team. I believe he has the ability to be Tony Parker lite under Coach Bud.

One last point I will add. While I like this plan, I don't think it's what Ferry will do should he not get DH/CP3. He's more likely going to blow up things and rely on young players to fill the roster.

[azuresou1]

I think you guys are way underrating Monta. He's not a great shooter anymore, but he would be devastating in transition with Teague, and he's a way underrated passer (27.1 AST% last year, vs. Lou Will at 20.4 AST%). Furthermore, is anyone comfortable with starting Jenkins at the 2 right now? I'm not. A 2 year deal to Monta with a team option for year two is very much a "prove-it" deal which is likely beneficial to both us and him.

I could be wrong on Zaza but I don't think teams are going to be courting him much. He's been injured two years in a row now, and he's not a great offensive player OR a defender.

I don't know how you can talk about Monta being a ball stopper and then ask for Al Jefferson. While he's not a negative on defense, he's not as good as Splitter, and will likely command more because he produced more.

As for Splitter, I like what I see - a fluid big man with good hands, who can finish, has good positioning, plays team basketball, and is a low mistake player. He's not 'sexy' in the way that a Dwight Howard is, but he's a fundamentally sound player that has good athleticism and skill.

I will note that our team very much becomes a finesse team, rather than a grinding team.

[azuresou1]

Zach Lowe has an excellent if short piece on the effectiveness of the Splitter/Duncan frontcourt, as well as a clip. Look at how fluidly he moves, and the great pass to get it inside to the cutter.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/875 ... dd-couples

If Splitter can perform so well with Duncan, I'd have to think he could perform similarly with Horford.

[MaceCase]

I'm with you on every move except Monta. Beyond my dislike for his style of play, not thinking that he is THAT much better than Louis to justify twice the salary while already having Louis, and wanting to move away from Mini-Me backcourts in general, I just don't see how he would walk away from 11 million guaranteed to essentially take the same deal less 1 million. Him opting out of the last year of his current deal would suggest that he is pursuing a more lucrative deal and if that is not available, at least a longer term one that would guarantee at least 3-4 years near his current amount. I would hope that Ferry is not willing to be the one to offer that kind of security.

You had us resigning Korver regardless so I would just roll with him at the starting 2 with Barnes and Wright at the 3. This makes the team better defensively too as we are both bigger on the wings with a more athletic and longer 3 and brings us closer to the Spurs model that Bud is used to because it would force Jeffrey and Al into the Parker and Duncan roles of being the primary facilitators with Korver, Wright, and Splitter playing off the ball. Won't be as good, obviously, but the team will still maintain flexibility to add another gamechanger plus the draftees can be brought along nicely.

[Geaux_Hawks]

With CP3's recent comments, you could probably take Teague and Ellis out of your plans, and sub him in. That would end up being a great offseason with all those moves. I would probably look to sign Barnes cheaper since he will be a ring chaser anyway.

[azuresou1]

If we could sign CP3, I would actually rather that we sign Teague and try to convert him to a undersized 2 rather than sign Korver. We'd be undersized, but we'd be FAST, have unparallelled handling, penetration and passing, and still maintain good spacing.

I like Korver but I don't want him as a starting 2 - his handles are nonexistent, and I think you need a secondary ball handler to deal with traps and presses and to really get those seams to form.

[MaceCase]

If we could sign CP3, I would actually rather that we sign Teague and try to convert him to a undersized 2 rather than sign Korver. We'd be undersized, but we'd be FAST, have unparallelled handling, penetration and passing, and still maintain good spacing.

I like Korver but I don't want him as a starting 2 - his handles are nonexistent, and I think you need a secondary ball handler to deal with traps and presses and to really get those seams to form.

That's why I mentioned the Spurs model, they start Danny Green and Kawhi of which neither is a secondary ball handler to Parker or at least not much if any better than I think Kyle or Wright/Barnes is.

[tcorbin]

^ That is why i'm all for Reggie Bullock, or KCP for the 18th pick, because they really fit the San Antonio model. Maybe Shabazz, depending if Buldenholzer can work on his attitude.

[Jamaaliver]

^ That is why i'm all for Reggie Bullock, or KCP for the 18th pick, because they really fit the San Antonio model. Maybe Shabazz, depending if Buldenholzer can work on his attitude.

I'd love to have KCP as our starting SG for the next ten years.