RealGM

So after updating the Salaries Information thread, I got :

Estimated Guaranteed contract at this moment :

12,000,000 - Al Horford
05,225,000 - Louis Williams
01,258,800 - John Jenkins
01,208,400 - Jared Cunningham
00,100,000 - 2013-14 guaranteed part for Jeremy Tyler waived in 2012-13
01,348,200 - 17th pick (1,617,840 if signed for 120%)
01,419,200 - 16th pick (1,703,040 if signed for 120%)
05,393,258 - Kyle Korver (minimum for a first year of a $24M/4yrs 7.5% increasing contract)
09,290,954 - Paul Milsap (minimum for a first year of a $19M/2yrs 4.5% increasing contract)
02,444,988 - DeMarre Carroll (minimum for a first year of a $5M/2yrs 4.5% increasing contract)
01,450,900 - 3 "incomplete roster charge" : 3 x 490,180

Total : 41,159,340 This leaves $17.34M, maybe only 17M if contracts of Milsap and Carroll are flat

We have Teague's Q.O. at this moment : $6,082,692
Josh Smith cap hold is 16,402,500 so we can't have both.
Don't know who Ferry did renounce to sign Milsap, but he should have, or Milsap would have had to come in Sign-&-trade

We can note that Carroll salary fits the Room Exception, so maybe Ferry will really sign him once the team is at the cap, which would mean that we can delete Carroll from the list, and gets 2.5M more in room.

There's also a possibility that if Schröder and Nogueira stay in Europe and ATL have a letter, that their cap hold could be deleted, making another 2.7M of room to add.

If we move saying we have renounced Josh, and still got rights on Teague, what do you prefer ?
Renounce Teague and use 17M then the 2.5M Room exception ?
Keep Teague Q.O., use 11M on F.A., then sign Teague or use him in Sing-&-trade (we can go over the cap by signing him for more than his Q.O.) ?

Very good job, thanks. Makes me embarrassed that I forgot Lou Williams when I mention this same idea.

If Asik comes (I hope!), that's 8.3, leaving around $12 million for Teague (Ferry seems to be trying to drive his price down - doesn't that mean he's planning to keep him, if he can get him cheap?) and whatever money is left over for our bench. That's assuming we stash Nogueira and Schröder.

Thanks for this.

I think the easy path would be to hold off signing Millsap and Carroll until the Smoove situation resolves itself. IIRC, that's actually a fairly common scenario in these situations especially since we don't expect Smith to stay out there until August or anything. If there's an SNT for Smoove, then one of our demands would be that the salary we take back < the amount of room we have + the players we want to keep (Scott and Mack would be 2nd year minis) + Teague's cap hold. Eyeballing your numbers would mean we could take back around $10-11M - another ~$1M more if Nogueira stays overseas for another season.

theatlfan wrote:If there's an SNT for Smoove, then one of our demands would be that the salary we take back < the amount of room we have + the players we want to keep (Scott and Mack would be 2nd year minis) + Teague's cap hold. Eyeballing your numbers would mean we could take back around $10-11M - another ~$1M more if Nogueira stays overseas for another season.

That may be the problem. If Smith says, "I want 16.5," we'd have a very hard time making a SNT work. Let me add this to what you posted: we need to keep in mind the HOU side, as well. They spent almost all of their available cap space on Howard. They don't have the room to take back much more salary than they send out. If Smith wants the full $16.5 million, they need to send out around $16 million.

I say stash Bebe and Dennis. Resign Josh,Ivan,Pachulia. Bring in a durable backup point who can drive to the rim.

Millsap was renounced as part of the Utah deal to bring in Gsws trash so a sign and trade would have been impossible.

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parson wrote:

theatlfan wrote:If there's an SNT for Smoove, then one of our demands would be that the salary we take back < the amount of room we have + the players we want to keep (Scott and Mack would be 2nd year minis) + Teague's cap hold. Eyeballing your numbers would mean we could take back around $10-11M - another ~$1M more if Nogueira stays overseas for another season.

That may be the problem. If Smith says, "I want 16.5," we'd have a very hard time making a SNT work. Let me add this to what you posted: we need to keep in mind the HOU side, as well. They spent almost all of their available cap space on Howard. They don't have the room to take back much more salary than they send out. If Smith wants the full $16.5 million, they need to send out around $16 million.

An SNT works like a regular trade - so for this scenario, the salaries only have to be within $5M. Once HOU signs Howard with cap space, then they don't have to stay under the cap. If Smith signs a 4 year/$64M deal ($16M average) with 4.5% increases, then his y1 salary comes in just under $15M, so they could send out about $10M and the deal would work for them (or Asik or Lin + one of their 2nd year former 1sts in Motiejunas and T Jones). If they wanted to make it work with just Asik or Lin, then Smoove would need to agree to a 4 yr/$57M deal.

This is our advantage. The SNT isn't clearing cap, it is a trade. HOU would need to drop both Asik and Lin to clear the cap to offer Smoove those figures, but by dealing with us, they only need to drop one. So, the question is how much can they get for an Asik/Lin package on the open market without taking back any salary versus how much is it worth it to them to keep either. We should demand at least 95% of that difference.


EDIT: Note the reports that HOU are pulling Asik and Lin off the market. Considering that the publicity around Asik and his new role and the fact that Lin is overpaid @ $8+M (not his salary, just his cap figure), this is an obvious ploy to trump up some interest.

GrimeyKidd wrote:I say Resign Josh,Ivan,Pachulia.

Ewwww.

Funny that Ferry had seen enough of this guy after 4 months to know he was not a fit. But Hawks fans, after 10 years of Smoove, still are begging to bring him back.

Even though we already drafted and signed his replacements...

OK, so if we stash the new kids and let go of Stevenson and Mack, I'm guessing that our cap will come to roughly $44 mil??? If the cap is set at $58.5, then we have about $14.5 mil to play with and $17 mil if we manage to use Carroll as a MLE option (could we also sign another player at that same level and have that fall into the MLE too?).

Here's a couple questions I have still:
If Ferry does resign Teague, what can his contract likely look like?
If we SnT Teague, can't we go over the cap in what we bring back? That might give us some extra room to play with. Or do the salaries have to match?
If my numbers are right/close above, we can at least make a run at a big like Pek or as rumored Ellis, but we can't get both. Depending on Teague's numbers, shouldn't we be able to get one of the two above and resign Teague?
Could we pick up Stevenson's option and count it as the other part of the MLE?
(I've been assuming that all the deals during the moratorium can be applied in a certain order so that we can take advantage of MLE and such. Is that right?)
Lastly, what is the floor of the cap that we have to spend? Isn't there a point every team has to get to?

I like where we are with the cap. We have room to still maneuver and add to the roster. I just don't want to get into any long-term deals that could hurt the team's ability to make a significant move in the future.

It may not be productive to discuss what could have been, but I just have to know. I was hoping that, if we did not get Dwight, we would either trade Josh for Asik, or as a plan C, we would preserve as much cap space as possible for 2014 FA. Regarding plan C, I have to know, if we had kept only Horford, Louis Williams, Korver, Teague, and our two recent picks on contracts that last beyond the summer of 2014, would we have had enough cap space to sign 2 max level contracts in the summer of 2014? If not, would we have only needed to let Teague walk and/or trade Lou for an expiring contract to reach that goal? (I know the Millsap signing klls that cap space, which is why I'm concerned abou that signing.) Thanks guys.

jagstang76 wrote:OK, so if we stash the new kids and let go of Stevenson and Mack, I'm guessing that our cap will come to roughly $44 mil??? If the cap is set at $58.5, then we have about $14.5 mil to play with and $17 mil if we manage to use Carroll as a MLE option (could we also sign another player at that same level and have that fall into the MLE too?)

If we let all unguaranteed contracts walk, and renounce all F.A., and we have a letter for stashing both picks :

12,000,000 - Al Horford
09,500,000 - Paul Milsap (09,290,954 minimum for a first year of a $19M/2yrs 4.5% increasing contract)
05,400,000 - Kyle Korver (5,393,258 minimum for a first year of a $24M/4yrs 7.5% increasing contract)
05,225,000 - Louis Williams
02,500,000 - DeMarre Carroll (2,444,988 minimum for a first year of a $5M/2yrs 4.5% increasing contract)
01,258,800 - John Jenkins
01,208,400 - Jared Cunningham
00,100,000 - 2013-14 guaranteed part for Jeremy Tyler waived in 2012-13

Total : 37,192,200 for 7 players
Since Carroll can be signed once we are at the cap, using the Room MLE, we can delete him.

Total of guaranteed contract : 34,692,200 for 6 players (Carroll being the waiting 7th player)
Add 6 roster charges for 2,941,080 and it makes 37,633,280 so almost 21M of room now (if it was on one player), but really almost 23.5M (we get 490,180 more room each time we sign a player because of deleted roster charge)

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If we bring both picks or don't have a letter, it adds :
01,348,200 - 17th pick (1,617,840 if signed for 120%)
01,419,200 - 16th pick (1,703,040 if signed for 120%)

Total : 37,633,280 + 1,348,200 + 1,419,200 - (2 x 490,180) = 39,420,320 for 8 players (Carroll being the waiting 9th player)

19M to use now on one player, and up to 20.5M as we would delete 3 of the 4 roster charges left until there's one left at the moment we sign Carroll with the Room MLE

-----

If we keep Teague cap hold, there is 6,082,692 more, but one roster charge less so it use nearly 5,600,000 of room

Total : 39,420,320 + 6,082,692 - 490,180 = 45,012,832 for 9 players (Carroll being the waiting 10th player)

13.5M to use now on one player, or 14M on two players. We could offer more than the MIN offer of 12M to Pekovic if we want.

jagstang76 wrote:If Ferry does resign Teague, what can his contract likely look like?
If we SnT Teague, can't we go over the cap in what we bring back? That might give us some extra room to play with. Or do the salaries have to match?
If my numbers are right/close above, we can at least make a run at a big like Pek or as rumored Ellis, but we can't get both. Depending on Teague's numbers, shouldn't we be able to get one of the two above and resign Teague?
Could we pick up Stevenson's option and count it as the other part of the MLE?
(I've been assuming that all the deals during the moratorium can be applied in a certain order so that we can take advantage of MLE and such. Is that right?)
Lastly, what is the floor of the cap that we have to spend? Isn't there a point every team has to get to?

I like where we are with the cap. We have room to still maneuver and add to the roster. I just don't want to get into any long-term deals that could hurt the team's ability to make a significant move in the future.

I don't know what kind of contract he would offer him, but having Bird rights on him, we can go over the cap when signing him, and I think (not sure) that now we have renounce all our exception to use cap room, we get the Room MLE that we would be able to use even after signing Teague, so going over the cap with his new contract, and then use the Room MLE

As we can go over by signing him, we can if we sign-&-trade him too.
We can get more than what we sign him for. As long as we end under the Tax, and assuming Teague will get less than 9.8M in first year, we can get up to 150% + 100k of his first year salary
I don't think Stevenson can be changed, he plays for 2.4M or he's waived.
And teams must spend 90% of cap starting this season, so 52.65M

Thanks d21! So it would seem we have a lot of options still left and should not have any issues reaching the 90% threshold. I like how Ferry has maintained flexibility to this point with mostly short-term deals. Whether we are able to get the guys we want now or not, I feel good that at least we can hit reset fairly easily and make adjustments.

Hey D21, do you mind helping me out with the scenario I posted above? I was trying to figure out if we have taken a positive path relative to what could have been if we had maintained more cap space.

Thanks D21 for being the holder of the spreadsheet.

Looks like we could offer Pekovic his max if we get letters from our 2 1sts. We'd end up with a situation since Millsap would be a backup, but it is what it is. Having said that, I'm not sure that MIN wouldn't just match all the same...

^ I know this isn't the Pekovic thread but you're probably right. MIN fans are hoping he will sign a lower offer, so that they can match and keep his salary down, compared to his going FA next year. If he just takes the QO this year, he'll be a UFA next year. And he knows teams are clearing cap to sign a major FA at that time. He'd be a nice consolation gift for someone missing out on James . . . and would easily earn a max offer.

Rod700 wrote:It may not be productive to discuss what could have been, but I just have to know. I was hoping that, if we did not get Dwight, we would either trade Josh for Asik, or as a plan C, we would preserve as much cap space as possible for 2014 FA. Regarding plan C, I have to know, if we had kept only Horford, Louis Williams, Korver, Teague, and our two recent picks on contracts that last beyond the summer of 2014, would we have had enough cap space to sign 2 max level contracts in the summer of 2014? If not, would we have only needed to let Teague walk and/or trade Lou for an expiring contract to reach that goal? (I know the Millsap signing klls that cap space, which is why I'm concerned abou that signing.) Thanks guys.

Al Horford 12,000,000
Louis Williams 5,450,000
Kyle Korver 5,800,000
16th pick $1,483,100 x 120% = 1,779,720 (picks are always signed for the 120% allowed)
17th pick $1,408,900 x 120% = 1,690,680

Total = 26,720,400 for 5 players.
Renounce all F.A and exceptions, add 7 x "2014-15 roster charges of 507,336" : 3,551,352

TOTAL = 30.27M
Impossibility to sign two 7-9yrs or 10+yrs Max contracts , without Teague !

Something we did not work with is that since we can sign Carroll with the Room exception after signing or sign-&-trading Teague, we can estimate what we can spend or receive with trades before signing Carroll :

Tax limit : almost 70.5M
Carroll : 2.5M

We can go up to 68M of salaries before signing him, it's important to see what kind of sign-&-trades we can do with Teague in case we receive more than we send

Thanks D21!

You're welcome

With official numbers, we get a bit more than what expected :

- Salary Cap : 58.679 instead of 58.5 so it makes 0.179M more of Cap Room
- Tax threshold : 71.748 instead of 70.5, so almost 1.25M more Tax Room in case we make a sign-&-trade with Teague that bring more salaries.