Reading the Tea Leaves - MIL/ATL
Posted: Tue Jul 9, 2013 9:20 am
This is pure speculation and I've probably been thinking on this too much, but I figured I'd throw it out there and see what y'all think... well, other than I thought about this too hard.
I'll cut to the chase: the deal between MIL and ATL is Jeff Teague for Giannis Antetokounmpo (hereafter referred to as GiAnt) + whatever we can get for one of their FAs in an SNT. The current holdup is trying to make the salaries match since MIL's hope would be that they could simply do an SNT with one of the players on their former roster, but we haven't found the one that we like yet.
The rationale:
Larry Drew runs a fairly complex O that is an offshoot of the Princeton motion O, so bringing in some of "his guys" should only help with the transition of the rest of the team, especially if that guy is the PG. Neither Ellis nor Jennings had any college and looking at their unrepentant chucker stats, I could see questioning if either could learn the O well enough and fast enough for Drew to implement his entire O within the off-season so he could grow tweak it in season. For a team that is looking to climb the playoff ladder, winning a few more games early in the schedule could pay some dividends come playoff time. From the HC to the FO, they identified Teague as someone they wanted early and we're willing to pull some strings to get it done.
On draft night, MIL's drafting of GiAnt was on of the big head-scratchers of the mid-1st round. A team that was looking to remain in playoff contention was drafting a 2-3 year project raised more than a few eyebrows. Why did this happen? If you remember, Drew also had a very odd ending as HC for us. He stuck around well into June under contract even though we were openly interviewing HC candidates and he was openly interview for other HC positions. Not to say we let him into the inner circle at this time, but he was around and probably could figure out some of the prospects we liked. With this knowledge, he could validate the fairly open rumor that we were the ones who promised GiAnt, so MIL pulled the trigger on drafting GiAnt with the thought of moving him to us within a few weeks.
At some point, MIL contacts us with the trade proposal and suggest to us to look into their FA since they're not expecting to keep any of them: Ellis and Jennings could be our replacement at PG, but Dalembert, Redick, and Dunleavy would do. We're receptive and both side are willing to wait on the deal since we both have cap room and having an RFA cap hold on the books is more beneficial under the current CBA. We decide to look into Jennings first and brought him to Atlanta last week for an interview, and apparently we weren't impressed (or else we wouldn't have opened up the negotiations with Ellis). Both Dunleavy and Redick jumped at championship teams immediately with MIL receiving scant considerations for their leaving which shrank our potential pool (quite simply: we weren't willing to do Teague for GiAnt and 2 2nds). We finally decide that Ellis would do and start negotiations with him before SAC steps in and offers more $$ and a chance to return out West where he apparently still has his home from his time with GSW. Also, our chase of Andrew Bynum is holding things up further since we're not sure about our cap situation or if we'll need another big.
At this point, we're still trying to find the fit. I think our Plan A is to see if a 3rd team starts sniffing around Jennings in which case we open up a 3 team 2x SNT in which MIL gets Teague, Team 3 gets Jennings, we get GiAnt and whatever concessions Team 3 is willing to give for Jennings. Plan B is talking directly with SAC, but there is precious little on that roster that is intriguing and the Hayes / Fredette offer they were trying to get CLE to swallow looks to be an obvious pass for us. Plan C would probably be to either just take Jennings or turn our attention to Dalembert and overpay him for a year.
IF this is all the case, I figure I'd put on my toy GM hat and throw out the offers for the 1st 2 plans (the 3rd is self evident):
Plan A: * assumes we miss out on Bynum
TOR trades Rudy Gay for Jennings / MIL trades Jennings and GiAnt for Teague and Zaza / ATL trades Teague and Zaza for Gay and GiAnt
TOR dumps Gay for a young PG to kick start Ujiri's rebuilding; we get Gay to bridge the gap until GiAnt is ready.
Other possible teams: DET and ORL
Plan B:
SAC trades Jason Thompson and Jimmer Fredette for Monta Ellis / MIL trades Ellis and GiAnt for Teague / ATL trades Teague for Thompson, Fredette, and GiAnt
SAC gulps and parts with Thompson instead of Hayes, but they land their man. We take Thompson as a swing big who can move Horford to PF part time; Fredette is nothing more than an expiring.
I'll cut to the chase: the deal between MIL and ATL is Jeff Teague for Giannis Antetokounmpo (hereafter referred to as GiAnt) + whatever we can get for one of their FAs in an SNT. The current holdup is trying to make the salaries match since MIL's hope would be that they could simply do an SNT with one of the players on their former roster, but we haven't found the one that we like yet.
The rationale:
Larry Drew runs a fairly complex O that is an offshoot of the Princeton motion O, so bringing in some of "his guys" should only help with the transition of the rest of the team, especially if that guy is the PG. Neither Ellis nor Jennings had any college and looking at their unrepentant chucker stats, I could see questioning if either could learn the O well enough and fast enough for Drew to implement his entire O within the off-season so he could grow tweak it in season. For a team that is looking to climb the playoff ladder, winning a few more games early in the schedule could pay some dividends come playoff time. From the HC to the FO, they identified Teague as someone they wanted early and we're willing to pull some strings to get it done.
On draft night, MIL's drafting of GiAnt was on of the big head-scratchers of the mid-1st round. A team that was looking to remain in playoff contention was drafting a 2-3 year project raised more than a few eyebrows. Why did this happen? If you remember, Drew also had a very odd ending as HC for us. He stuck around well into June under contract even though we were openly interviewing HC candidates and he was openly interview for other HC positions. Not to say we let him into the inner circle at this time, but he was around and probably could figure out some of the prospects we liked. With this knowledge, he could validate the fairly open rumor that we were the ones who promised GiAnt, so MIL pulled the trigger on drafting GiAnt with the thought of moving him to us within a few weeks.
At some point, MIL contacts us with the trade proposal and suggest to us to look into their FA since they're not expecting to keep any of them: Ellis and Jennings could be our replacement at PG, but Dalembert, Redick, and Dunleavy would do. We're receptive and both side are willing to wait on the deal since we both have cap room and having an RFA cap hold on the books is more beneficial under the current CBA. We decide to look into Jennings first and brought him to Atlanta last week for an interview, and apparently we weren't impressed (or else we wouldn't have opened up the negotiations with Ellis). Both Dunleavy and Redick jumped at championship teams immediately with MIL receiving scant considerations for their leaving which shrank our potential pool (quite simply: we weren't willing to do Teague for GiAnt and 2 2nds). We finally decide that Ellis would do and start negotiations with him before SAC steps in and offers more $$ and a chance to return out West where he apparently still has his home from his time with GSW. Also, our chase of Andrew Bynum is holding things up further since we're not sure about our cap situation or if we'll need another big.
At this point, we're still trying to find the fit. I think our Plan A is to see if a 3rd team starts sniffing around Jennings in which case we open up a 3 team 2x SNT in which MIL gets Teague, Team 3 gets Jennings, we get GiAnt and whatever concessions Team 3 is willing to give for Jennings. Plan B is talking directly with SAC, but there is precious little on that roster that is intriguing and the Hayes / Fredette offer they were trying to get CLE to swallow looks to be an obvious pass for us. Plan C would probably be to either just take Jennings or turn our attention to Dalembert and overpay him for a year.
IF this is all the case, I figure I'd put on my toy GM hat and throw out the offers for the 1st 2 plans (the 3rd is self evident):
Plan A: * assumes we miss out on Bynum
TOR trades Rudy Gay for Jennings / MIL trades Jennings and GiAnt for Teague and Zaza / ATL trades Teague and Zaza for Gay and GiAnt
TOR dumps Gay for a young PG to kick start Ujiri's rebuilding; we get Gay to bridge the gap until GiAnt is ready.
Other possible teams: DET and ORL
Plan B:
SAC trades Jason Thompson and Jimmer Fredette for Monta Ellis / MIL trades Ellis and GiAnt for Teague / ATL trades Teague for Thompson, Fredette, and GiAnt
SAC gulps and parts with Thompson instead of Hayes, but they land their man. We take Thompson as a swing big who can move Horford to PF part time; Fredette is nothing more than an expiring.