As promised... my 2013 Hawks prediction

[azuresou1]

Team - Wins - Losses - Offensive Rank - Defensive Rank
Atlanta Hawks 46 36 10 16

Slightly above-average offense, middle of the pack defense, tied for 5th in the East (with Detroit) at 46 wins.

Full rankings here: http://www.buildingbetterball.com/2013/ ... ojections/

[Yungsta404]

I predict us to be around .500

I agree we will probably be average to above average offensively. Getting rid of josh should help our offense.

Defensively I think we will probably be at the bottom half of the league unless Bud is Thibs 2.0. We lost josh and we are even smaller than last year. Our starting 1/2/3 will be a combination of teague, korver, and either lou or jenkins and once again our frontcourt will be undersized this season.

Im very irritated that we had all this cap space and didnt address anything but our coaching.

[parson]

I'm almost sorry (if it's a bother, that is)
to ask but could you calculate what would be the difference if we traded Millsap for Asik on 15 December?

Sent from my SCH-I535 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[azuresou1]

Won't have time to run it through the model until after this weekend, but I guess that Dec 15 is far away anyways

My best guess without running it through is that we probably actually end up dropping a couple of wins, and our defense and offense rankings switch. I'd guess that it provides a 3-4 win boost to Houston, who get hurt in the model by playing Motiejunas big minutes.

[azuresou1]

Never mind! Had an opportunity to run it through the model

Atlanta w/ Millsap - 46-36, 10O 16 D
Atlanta w/ Asik - 45-37, 14O 9 D

Largely value neutral for us, while Houston projects as getting +3 wins... which is all the more reason I think Ferry should, with good salesmanship, be able to extract a some additional minor assets from Houston.

[parson]

^ Thanks.

This is assuming Horford doesn't improve while playing PF fulltime, right?

[azuresou1]

Yeah, I don't see why he would, especially since statistically he plays better at C than at PF.

[parson]

^ Except for the facts that he's, physically, really a PF, he's never played beside a true (and good) Center and he keeps getting beat up when he logs large minutes at Center.

[Jamaaliver]

^ Except for the facts that he's, physically, really a PF, he's never played beside a true (and good) Center and he keeps getting beat up when he logs large minutes at Center.

Indeed. In college he played next to a capable defensive Center (Noah) and their team dominated opposing front-courts for years at a time. Also, take into account his repeated requests to play PF, his lack of shot-blocking and his elite jump shooting (with his underdeveloped post game); he is a natural PF.

Here's hoping Bebe develops fast and furious so we can see these two playing together at some point.

[azuresou1]

I'd completely agree that Al is a 'traditional' PF. That said, the league has now evolved to a place where traditional PFs are now regarded as Cs for many teams, and traditional SFs like LeBron, Melo, Thad Young, etc. are now almost universally fulltime PFs. Even twigs like Durant are starting to play meaningful minutes at PF.

LeBron - 29% SF, 42% PF
Melo - 8% SF, 48% PF, 4% C
Durant - 60% SF, 17% PF
Gallinari - 31% SF, 25% PF

Meanwhile, Al did significantly better at C than he did at PF, and has for a few seasons now:
2012 PF: 17.9 PER, 19.0 Opponent PER
2012 C: 21.9 PER, 16.6 Opponent PER

2011 PF: 18.7 PER, 23.1 Opponent PER
2011 C: 19.5 PER, 13.6 Opponent PER

2010 PF: 19.6 PER, 13.1 Opponent PER
2010 C: 23.4 PER, 17.7 Opponent PER

Despite what we 'feel', the overwhelming statistical evidence is that Al plays significantly better at C than he does at PF. I cannot in all good conscience deny that evidence and claim to be an unbiased analyst.

[azuresou1]

Also - I already bumped Asik's DVORP to halfway between his 2011 and 2012 ratings, to account for the fact that he no longer plays with a team full of s*** defenders as he did in Houston, but neither does he play backup minutes on a great defensive team. That in my mind should provide the most accurate assessment of his impact to the Hawks.

[parson]

Yao Ming murdered Horford. The taller the opponent, the more trouble Horford's had.

To me, the question exists because we have never seen Horford paired with a true Center (a good Center, that is). It's all conjecture. However, if azuresou1 is right about Horford lining up against LBJ, Carmello Anthony, Thad Young and the like, Horford should thrive.

[D21]

Despite what we 'feel', the overwhelming statistical evidence is that Al plays significantly better at C than he does at PF. I cannot in all good conscience deny that evidence and claim to be an unbiased analyst.

Like Parson said, it's the evidence, but in a team without a true C. In this case, we don't know what the evidence is.
It could still be better at PF, or could be better at C, and the only possibility to know it would be to try. That's why last season I said that if we had to trade Josh, it had to be for a, even an expiring C, to at least be able to test a C with Al at PF, and know all the facts.

[Jamaaliver]

I'd completely agree that Al is a 'traditional' PF. That said, the league has now evolved to a place where traditional PFs are now regarded as Cs for many teams...Despite what we 'feel', the overwhelming statistical evidence is that Al plays significantly better at C than he does at PF. -

That's poppycock. Enough with these so called 'advanced stats'. WATCH THE TAPE.

AL gets eaten alive by bigger, stronger, taller centers. D Howard used to eat AL's lunch. Asik feasted on rebounds against us last year.

Look at the playoffs. Pacers won the games when AL started at Center. Hawks won when Al was moved to PF and a bigger, stronger Center.

We are in a Conference with All Star Centers on most of the top teams: Brooklyn, Chicago, Indiana, New York. Those teams consistently outrebound us when AL has to play Center because we are undersized across the board.

2010 Playoffs: Dwight feasts on Horford and gets him foul trouble every game.
2011 Playoffs: A bigger, stronger Center gives Dwight fits defensively; Horford thrives at PF.

Omer friggin' Asik averaged 18 rebounds per game against our undersized frontcourt. He just reached over their heads and snatched the ball away.

Step away from the computer, use your eyes to watch the games. It's pretty obvious that against big Centers, we suffer greatly with AL at Center. If we get a big, strong Center and move AL to PF we can finally dominate the paint and force OTHER teams to match up with us. Instead of vice-versa.

AL avg something like 20/10 in reg season games he started at PF last year. In a playoff series, we'd be a nightmare if we had a damn 7 footer plus a big strong PF like Horford.

We've been one of the worst rebounding teams for years because we have been undersized at the 4 and the 5.
Now that Josh is gone, it's easily fixed. Get a DAMN Center!!!!

[Jamaaliver]

Remember the game winner Horford hit over Larry Sanders in MIL?

Imagine Horford doing that to tiny PFs every night!!!!!

[MaceCase]

The tape also showed David West (a PF) eat Horf alive in those closing playoff games that the Hawks actually lost when he started at PF. The tape also showed Horf struggle against more faceup oriented PFs all year long in addition to strong PFs such as West. The stats would seem to back this up so it makes no sense to first misrepresent them and then decide to use a smaller sample of statistics as proof positive that a larger sample of statistics are bunk. Which is it, do you trust stats or only trust them when they fit the agenda and if not, then lie to fit them to the agenda?

Furthermore the debate now shifts to the caveat that "well he wasn't next to a true C to really validate those stats". So now we need to disregard entirely that Zaza, Collins, Petro, Dampier etc. counting as "true Cs" despite all being over 6'11" and 260lbs+ and further shift the debate to "well he wasn't next to a good C" so we can strike Zaza from the list and move the goal posts "He wasn't next to a starting to All Star caliber C to really get a sense for it". In response, no duh, increase the talent level at any of the positions and it will give you a rosier outlook but alas, is that a positional issue or a talent issue?

Al at C/PF is just going to go the way of the "Marvin needs a change of scenery", "Joe needs more talent around him", "Josh just needs a coach, pg, change of position" debates. In the end all we'll see is wishful thinking. You can throw around that the "right scenery", "age", "right coach, pg, position" still haven't come about for those other longstanding debates but the simple fact of the matter is that the league itself has evolved past this particular debate.

To argue that Al may be overwhelmed by bigger and stronger players at times is fine but to somehow assume that a player that is not at all adept with his back to the basket or scoring one on one in general will somehow thrive offensively against players more accustomed to guarding his faceup game while also offering greater range, speed, and offensive repertoire on offense themselves, will somehow thrive and even surpass what he's done in the past as a C based on simply being bigger just isn't logical. After all.......hasn't he worked his way to being an All Star center......despite being smaller?

But that's just in the case of the faux PFs such as Lebron, Young, Anthony and Ilyasova though. Who amongst Greg Monroe, Kevin Garnett, Carlos Boozer, David West, and Nene is Al bigger than and will be bullying in the post? So the entirety of the Eastern Conference has either PFs that Al doesn't have a physical advantage over and PFs that have a skill advantage over him. Whatever respite he's getting from not having to battle guys 20 pounds heavier is being eliminated by having to battle guys as quick, as long, as strong and more talented than the majority of plodders he's seen in the past.




In summary, you are going to get less of the same of Al at PF and not some entirely different better player regardless of whom you place next to him. The only difference an Asik will give you over a Zaza is a better team, not a better Al. We have seen more than enough of Al to know that he's not some Dream against PFs but Mr. Roboto against Cs and the stats confirm it.

[Jamaaliver]

So...many...words...

AL is my favorite Hawk. But he is not without flaws at either position. He gets eaten alive regularly by big, post oriented Centers.

And he is indeed susceptible to jump shooting PFs. But just as he struggled against West, West struggled to contain AL as well. (Remember Game 3 where AL abused West) And that is my point, he can actually dish out against small PFs.

And I'm not against using stats in a debate, but some point the inane overuse of 'advanced stats' is just too much.

I do count Zaza, Collins, Petro as competent defensive Centers and this is what leads me to believe it'll work. If our frontcourt plays so well with severely limited players at the 5 next to Horford, imagine what a competent or topflight Center next to Horford could accomnplish.

We have literally YEARS of sample to observe of Drew using the 'BIG' lineup effectively against teams with 7 foot centers that cause a matchup issue for AL. And we have years of sample size of AL getting abused on the boards and in the paint against seven footers.

I first became convinced after watching us dismantle the Orlando Magic in the 2011 playoffs one year after being humiliated by them. Drew did the most basic of personnel moves and it worked brilliantly. He put a big on a big and played him straight up. We stifled our rivals and tormentors in the series.

[Jamaaliver]

There are not many PFs strong enough to stop Horford in the East. But there are at least a half dozen ALL-Star caliber Centers that AL CAN NOT STOP.

Hibbert, Lopez, Bynum, Chandler, Jefferson, Joakim.

AL and his most recent coach have expressed multiple times over the years that the beating he takes at Center wears him down over the course of the year.

AL literally plays minutes at PF every game and manages to handle his own at the position. But last year we were undersized at every position most nights and it showed.

[Jamaaliver]

I mean just watch the tape of Asik against us in last season's opener. He is an average player at best, but he dominated the boards that night just by being longer and taller.

Josh and AL are both more talented, but ASIK is just BIGGER.

That happens to us pretty much every time we play a big, strong Center. Not even great Centers. Just big, strong ones.

The solution is an easy one. The one Drew used fairly often. Put a big on a BIG at Center. Slide AL over to PF, and now our front court becomes a strength.

The tape. Just watch the tape.

[Jamaaliver]

And I keep hearing that the league has evolved from it, but almost every team in the East trots out a big, post oriented Center.

From Drummond in Detroit, to Valanciunas in Toronto. Olynyk in Boston. AL Jefferson in Charlotte. Vucevic in Orlando. Noel Nerlens in Philly.

Nearly every Eastern team has focused top money or high draft picks on the old fashioned defensive, shot blocking, rebounding or post-scoring Center.

Denver just promoted Javale McGee to starter, OKC just drafted a 7 footer in the lottery, San Antonio, PHX, Minnesota.

Most teams in this league feature the old fashioned Center as a starter.