RealGM

Posted: **Tue Apr 8, 2014 5:59 pm**

Via Peachtree Hoops:

Compelling argument

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2014/4/8/ ... ul-millsap

I was attending my seven-year old son's second ever flag football game (he scored! Woot!) when I got the question.

"Should the Atlanta Hawks make the playoffs this year?"

This question has permeated the Twitterverse, Kris' Mailbag and every other place it's even possible to think about or talk about the Atlanta Hawks.

I have answered many times, but need to bring this out even further.

Of course the Hawks should make the playoffs.

Reasons below:
That's why they play the game.

Most players and coaches aren't just in it for the country club lifestyles and fat paychecks, though there is no doubt if Peachtree Hoops were an NBA team, that's precisely why we'd be doing it.

Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll, Kyle Korver and the like weren't signing or re-signing with the Hawks so they can work on their post-career real estate or car wash franchises. They came to win, be a part of a playoff culture and drive towards being part of building the foundation for a championship caliber Hawks franchise.
Culture

Let's talk about that culture. Let's see, tanked-out, bottomed-out franchise with no hope of getting back up to the top or perennial playoff team with the financial flexibility and draft picks to continue to add talent to push ahead towards that championship goal?

Hmmmmm....

It's important to maintain playoff continuity -- it makes a difference when you are trying to get guys to take less to come play for you, avoid massive overpayments for role players, etc. When you are a terrible team, and you are not the Lakers in sunny Los Angeles, playoff caliber players aren't excited to join your squad.
The lottery is no sure thing

Tanking seems like a great idea when Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are at the top of the lottery. Ask Cleveland how their years of struggling after LeBron left is going. And they had the #1 pick twice. Atlanta was terrible for the beginning of the century and they never got the top pick once.

Still, we see Cleveland going all-in and trading for Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes. Why did they go all-in? To make the playoffs and try to keep the one guy they did get for all that badness, Kyrie Irving, to stay. And that's no guarantee, either. Cleveland is ready to get the heck out of the lottery quagmire. so why would the Hawks be so anxious to jump into it?

For every Oklahoma City Thunder, there have been a half dozen or more other franchises that didn't fare well through the tanking paradigm and they either had to tank again and start over or build a different ladder for which to climb out of the NBA lottery dungeon.
Drafting in the middle of the first round isn't like missing the draft

Right now the Hawks would pick 15th based on their current record. The last three years the following players have been selected at #15: Kawhi Leonard, Mo Harkless and Giannis Antetokounmpo (a.k.a. The Greek Freak).

You can still select an impact player for your franchise there without selling out any chance of goodness, much less greatness to get there. Picking down there in 2014 may even be as good as picking eighth or ninth.

In our Peachtree Hoops NBA draft section, there are a lot of exciting players available in the middle of this draft. The RedRev, Patrick Laney himself emailed me to tell me that picking eighth in this draft may only be an advantage over fifteen in the manner of being able to choose first from that pool, but that after the sixth pick, there is a lot of variance between 7-20.
Where the Hawks are as a franchise

Nobody doesn't want a shot at choosing the next Olajuwon or Jordan in the draft and those guys were taken #1 and #3 in that draft. But Karl Malone was #13, Kobe Bryant also was 13th, Tony Parker 28th, etc.

It's not a death sentence as a franchise, it just takes a savvy draft GM to make the most of those picks. The Hawks are in terrific financial and draft pick position. This administration cares about culture, building a team the right way, no shortcuts and establishing a basketball cornerstone in Atlanta, just as was done in San Antonio, a very unlikely destination.

To do that you have to establish a winning attitude and that's not an attitude that comes with tanking, an abundance of inexpierenced players and a half-decade in the lottery.

It's alright to make the playoffs, don't be afraid of it, it's a good thing.

Posted: **Tue Apr 8, 2014 6:43 pm**

Thanks for sharing, PK!

That's a well written, well thought out piece, I'd say!

Posted: **Tue Apr 8, 2014 7:03 pm**

They should rename the draft the crapshoot. Steve Nash was at 15 as well.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 2:50 am**

Sorry, but backing into the playoffs in the eighth seed with a sub .500 record just isn't an accomplishment IMO.

It may have been a source of pride way back in 2008 when we were in the midst of one losing season after another.

While I agree that tanking is not ideal, I take no pride in being a losing team in the postseason that gets swept out by the #1 seed. Particularly when better teams with a winning record are stuck sitting at home. We've suddenly become the poster child for a broken playoff system that awards mediocrity as we sink further and further below .500 while still maintaining a hold on the 8th seed.

I'm siding with Ferry on this one:

We're not focused on trying to be the eighth seed in the playoffs because that's not our goal.

I consider the season a disappointment and largely a failure. The development of our youth was uneven, we still don't know if AL can lead a team or if he can play PF. We got embarrassed a number of times in blowout losses.
Millsap was a revelation, Teague had a solid season. Beyond that, meh.

And as much as we discount the importance of a lottery pick, the last time we were there we acquired AL Horford. It'd be nice to get another player of that caliber...and since we apparently can't grab such a player in Free Agency, the draft lottery is the best bet.

I view this season as a worst case scenario. We suffered through a difficult, losing season and still didn't manage to benefit from a high draft pick or seeing our recent draftees develop.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 4:06 am**

We better draft well then and pray the young talent develops quicker.

Otherwise, we're looking at a second round exit at best.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 4:08 am**

This season isn't a failure.

Its sad when people have gotten to this point. When I was growing up, if a team lost their best player, then lost another chunk of their team for double digit games yet still fought to make the playoffs, I was proud I was the fan of a team that has heart.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 4:34 am**

Rip2137 wrote:...if a team lost their best player, then lost another chunk of their team for double digit games yet still fought to make the playoffs, I was proud I was the fan of a team that has heart.

Fair point. Our team does indeed have heart. Now we just need some talent.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 2:21 pm**

A few weeks ago I was firmly on the tank train and cheering for losses. Then I watched a few more games and I became disgusted with myself.

When I watch the Hawks play, I see pride and determination. I see players playing unselfishly, freely passing the ball and making aggressive plays on defense, because they trust their teammates. I see execution. I see joy.

I cannot in good conscience root for a team like that to fail.

Will I be distraught if NY somehow catches up and we miss the playoffs? No, I think objectively the long-term reward of a higher pick offsets the short-term disappointment. Talent is always needed. But as long as this team continues to maintain and build on this winning culture, I will push for wins.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 3:36 pm**

I think the point of the article is go look at the drafts, some teams have tanked intentionally and wound up with great lottery picks....................and Anthony Bennett. Or Greg Oden.............. is there a sure fire STAR in this draft we can realisitcally land? Theres no LBJ or Durant or LMA etc in this draft. Its deep enough we can get someone of impact at 12-15 just as much as 5-10. Just my opinion on my LIMITED knowledge of college basketball.

What do you have to lose pushing for the playoffs? (as the 8th seed) you get something the fans can half ass cheer for, 2 more games for revenue, still a decent draft pick.

I think the point is 8th seed or 9th place, the lottery implications arent as big. Its a BIG RISK to get 9th place and HOPE for a high lottery pick

If my math is correct, based upon the lottery numbers, the hawks, if the season ended RIGHT NOW, would have a 1.7% chance of landing the top pick. If they make the playoffs they would pick 15th (as the standings are right now. We are talking a difference of most likely picks 4-5 apart. looking at mock drafts, we are talking ROLE PLAYERS, toss ups. The only picks in this draft that matter IMO are Randle, Parker, Wiggins, Embiid if he stays healthy. We have literally a better shot at beating the heat, than landing those picks.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 5:19 pm**

Cleveland is a bad example for tanking because they're not good at identifying or developing talent. I mean, the fact that they re-signed Mike Brown and drafted Anthony Bennett #1 should tell you all you need to know about their ownership/management.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 5:42 pm**

azuresou1 wrote:Cleveland is a bad example for tanking because they're not good at identifying or developing talent. I mean, the fact that they re-signed Mike Brown and drafted Anthony Bennett #1 should tell you all you need to know about their ownership/management.

If youre the hawks, with 2....potentially 3 All Stars already (Millsap, AH, Teague), there are far more BUSTS in the draft than SURE things.

I would like to see someone make the argument that the 9-10th seed would net us Japari Parker vs Adriene Payne, then I would see some merit.

But right now, in this draft, and this draft class, based on odds, etc, we are practically talking about role players available.

I kind of think we go after Asik, i dont care what his price tag is. we need a Center.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 6:26 pm**

Don't kid yourself on it not being meaningful. If we fall out of the playoffs, we'll be the 10th or 11th worst team. Assuming 10th, that would give us:

1.1% chance for 1st
1.3% chance for 2nd
1.6% chance for 3rd
87.0% chance for 10th
8.9% chance for 11th
0.2% chance for 12th
0.0% chance for 13th

That means we have a 4% chance of getting a Top 3 pick that yes, would turn into Parker, Wiggins, or Embiid. And a 10th-12th pick innately has more value than a 15th pick.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 6:28 pm**

PandaKidd wrote:I kind of think we go after Asik, i dont care what his price tag is. we need a Center.

On this, I agree 100%. Seeing AL Jefferson having a career season while carrying a moribund Bobcats franchise on his back is disheartening. Seeing Dieng putting up monster double-doubles time and time again pains me physically.

We could have had either of these guys, but chose vets like Antic and Brand and unproven players like Ayon and Bebe. None of whom have been consistent or dominant.

PandaKidd wrote:But right now, in this draft, and this draft class, based on odds, etc, we are practically talking about role players available.

On this note, I must disagree. Recent players available in the 9-10 range include Trey Burke, Michael Carter-Williams (and Giannis) last year. Andre Drummond and John Henson the year prior, Kemba Walker & Klay Thomspon in 2011, Paul George in 2010, and Demar DeRozan in 2009.

We're talking starters, All Stars and Franchise caliber players available at #9 over the course of the last 5 drafts.

And with this draft being heralded as one of the deepest NBA Drafts in years, this seems the opportune time for a top ten pick.

Again, I'm not in favor of tanking the entire season. But it might be more beneficial to start limiting Korver and Millsap's minutes and give Muscala and Dennis a couple of starts over the last week of the season.
Us getting humiliated by the Heat in 4 or 5 games only lowers the perception of the franchise making it even harder to attract free-agents in the future.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 6:47 pm**

Im talking THIS draft. Lets look at the draft boards, and go by ODDs.

10th worst team, ODDs are we get a 10th pick

1 Milwaukee Bucks Jabari Parker SF Duke
2 Philadelphia 76ers Julius Randle PF Kentucky
3 Orlando Magic Joel Embiid C Kansas
4 Boston Celtics Andrew Wiggins SF Kansas
5 Utah Jazz Dante Exum PF Australia
6 L.A. Lakers Aaron Gordon PF Arizona
7 Sacramento Kings Noah Vonleh PF/C Indiana
8 Detroit Pistons [a] Marcus Smart PG Oklahoma St.
9 Cleveland Cavaliers Clint Capela PF Switzerland
10 Philadelphia 76ers [b] Nik Stauskas SG Michigan
11 Denver Nuggets [c] Gary Harris SG Michigan St.
12 Orlando Magic [d] Tyler Ennis PG Syracuse
13 Minnesota Timberwolves Doug McDermott PF Creighton
14 Memphis Grizzlies Dario Saric SF Croatia
15 Atlanta Hawks Adreian Payne PF Michigan St.
16 Chicago Bulls [e] Montrezl Harrell PF Louisville
17 Phoenix Suns [f] Willie Cauley-Stein C Kentucky
18 Boston Celtics [g] Rodney Hood SF Duke
19 Chicago Bulls James Young SG/SF Kentucky
20 Toronto Raptors Zach LaVine SG UCLA

OR top 100

1. Joel Embiid 7-0 250 C Kansas Fr.
2. Jabari Parker 6-8 235 SF Duke Fr.
3. Andrew Wiggins 6-8 200 SF Kansas Fr.
4. Marcus Smart 6-4 220 PG Oklahoma State So.
5. +2 Dante Exum 6-6 188 PG/SG 1995
6. -1 Noah Vonleh 6-10 240 PF Indiana Fr.
7. +1 Julius Randle 6-9 250 PF Kentucky Fr.
8. -2 Gary Harris 6-4 210 SG Michigan St. So.
9. +1 Zach LaVine 6-5 180 PG/SG UCLA Fr.
10. +8 Kyle Anderson 6-9 230 SF UCLA So.
11. -2 Rodney Hood 6-8 215 SF Duke So.
12. +3 Doug McDermott 6-7 225 SF Creighton Sr.
13. +6 Elfrid Payton 6-3 190 PG Louisiana Lafayette Jr.
14. -3 Jerami Grant 6-8 210 SF Syracuse So.
15. -2 Tyler Ennis 6-2 180 PG Syracuse Fr.
16. +9 TJ Warren 6-8 225 SF NC State So.
17. +32 Nik Stauskas 6-5 190 SG Michigan So.
18. +5 Aaron Gordon 6-8 220 PF Arizona Fr.
19. -5 James Young 6-6 215 SG Kentucky Fr.
20. -3 Glenn Robinson III 6-6 220 SF Michigan So.

What do the Hawks NEED? Center and SG IMO. Is Scott and Korver our SFs?

Looking at these , the difference in caliber SG/SF is negligible outside the top 5. Are you saying Hood,Young, Dougie Mcbuckets, etc is a All Star caliber player?

I just dont think there is that big a difference between 10th and 15th based on our NEEDS.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 7:38 pm**

Sure... the ODDS are that we'll get the 10th pick... but then again, odds aren't why you play the lottery in the first place.

You play the lottery for the chance to hit it big. Ditto for the NBA draft lottery. A 4% chance at Wiggins/Parker/Embiid is a 4% chance. Let's look at some similarly ranked teams that ended up in the top 3.

2013: 8th place Wiz get 3rd pick - 12.4% - Otto Porter
2011: 8th place Clippers get 1st pick - 2.8% - Kyrie Irving
2008: 9th place Bulls get 1st pick - 1.7% - Derrick Rose
2007: 7th place Blazers get 1st pick - 5.3% - Greg Oden (could have been Kevin Durant)

I can't find records prior to that, but Wiki tells me that in 1993 the Magic got Chris Webber with a chance 1.5%, and in 1999 the Hornets got the 3rd pick (Baron Davis) despite barely missing the playoffs.

A 4% chance at a franchise player is not bad... and way better than a 0% chance.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 8:05 pm**

PandaKidd wrote:What do the Hawks NEED? Center and SG IMO. Is Scott and Korver our SFs?

I just dont think there is that big a difference between 10th and 15th based on our NEEDS.

When I look at the Hawks, I see one of the worst teams in the league. We go long, crucial stretches without scoring. We have trouble defending.

I think we need talent across the board. Regardless of position. The fact that we won 30+ games is a testament to great coaching. But I no longer believe we have a team that is just a few pieces away from competing.

We just need a top young player at any position.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 8:26 pm**

Jamaaliver wrote:
PandaKidd wrote:What do the Hawks NEED? Center and SG IMO. Is Scott and Korver our SFs?

I just dont think there is that big a difference between 10th and 15th based on our NEEDS.

When I look at the Hawks, I see one of the worst teams in the league. We go long, crucial stretches without scoring. We have trouble defending.

I think we need talent across the board. Regardless of position. The fact that we won 30+ games is a testament to great coaching. But I no longer believe we have a team that is just a few pieces away from competing.

We just need a top young player at any position.

One of the worst teams in the league? We are 9-2 in our last 11 games with Teague/Korver/Carroll/Milsap/Antic starting. Our offense is top 3 in the league with a healthy Horford. Just look at the last 5 games Horford played this year.

114 - 100 W vs LAL
124-107 W Sac
118-85 W vs Utah
119-121 L vs Miami. I think we were all screaming at our TVs throughout the 4th and OT though. The refs stole this one from us.
127-125 W vs Clev.

Now I know those wins are against lottery teams, but as Hawks fans it was a delight to see our team scoring that many points game in and game out and routinely beating the teams we were supposed to beat and by double digits.

We were 16-13 with Horford but we had a horrific stretch at the end of December where we had to play 8 games in 11 days which I've never seen a team have to do before. We lost 4 of those last 5 as our guys were absolutely burnt out.

In January, our guys really started gelling and we were 7-4. The record doesn't look great but a few things make it look better. The 4 losses were to @ SAS, vs OKC, @ NYK, @ MIA. We lost on a Timmy D buzzer beater in SAS and the refs screwed us in the Miami game. Out of our 7 wins, only 1 win (Wash) was by less than 10 points. We also scored atleast 100 in 10/11 games.

With that said, we are currently not a contender when Al is healthy but I think we are a lot closer than people think. Add an all-star wing who can create his own shot as well as a bench player or two and we are contenders.

Good to see ya Jamaal. Its been awhile. Looking forward to these next couple weeks of hoops as my work schedule has finally lightened up.

Posted: **Wed Apr 9, 2014 9:10 pm**

The NBA has proven time and time again that trades and free agency are the way to go to rebuild your team.

Teams rebuilt and became contenders by high draft picks are few and far between.

Posted: **Thu Apr 10, 2014 2:56 pm**

I think they have nice PIECES, but no superstar.

If you think AH is our PF, Millsap is our SF, Teague is our PG:

We need an elite wing. I would be ok with Carrol for defensive purposes, but we need a scoring wing/sf combo player. Korver could fit this role, but, I think I would rather see Korver enter into a more 6th man type role, play 30 min a night, almost like a 6th starter ala James Harden for OKC.

CENTER

Lets look at potential lineups based on what we know:
Teague - PG
SG- ???
SF- Millsap
PF- Horford
C- ???

In this configuration , you have to choose between Korver and Carrol as the SG. I dont like Korver at SG. He cant defend other SGs imo. Carroll you gain defense, inconsistent offense. So, if we go for a wing, what happens then? Carroll/Korver seem like odd men out, one of them at least.

OR

Teague-PG
SG-???
SF-Millsap/Korver
PF-???/Millsap
C-Horford

If Horford is our center, then Millsap seems odd man out, he CAN play a PF combo with Horford, that makes Korver the SF choice IMO.

I just see musical chairs, and someone is out. Its either Millsap or Korver/Carroll.

Posted: **Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:14 pm**

PandaKidd wrote:I think they have nice PIECES, but no superstar.

If you think AH is our PF, Millsap is our SF, Teague is our PG:

We need an elite wing. I would be ok with Carrol for defensive purposes, but we need a scoring wing/sf combo player. Korver could fit this role, but, I think I would rather see Korver enter into a more 6th man type role, play 30 min a night, almost like a 6th starter ala James Harden for OKC.

CENTER

Lets look at potential lineups based on what we know:
Teague - PG
SG- ???
SF- Millsap
PF- Horford
C- ???

In this configuration , you have to choose between Korver and Carrol as the SG. I dont like Korver at SG. He cant defend other SGs imo. Carroll you gain defense, inconsistent offense. So, if we go for a wing, what happens then? Carroll/Korver seem like odd men out, one of them at least.

OR

Teague-PG
SG-???
SF-Millsap/Korver
PF-???/Millsap
C-Horford

If Horford is our center, then Millsap seems odd man out, he CAN play a PF combo with Horford, that makes Korver the SF choice IMO.

I just see musical chairs, and someone is out. Its either Millsap or Korver/Carroll.

Say we signed Melo. I don't see any reason why one must go since none of them are making a tremendous amount of money. I also don't see why Horford can't start at C. Pero has already proven that he can play solid one on one D in the post. Bring in another guy similar to Brand once he retires.

We would have the most versatile group of forwards in the league.

Teague
Korver/Carroll
Melo/Carroll/Scott
Milsap/Melo/Horford
Horford/Pero/a new player

and I think Carroll has proven that he can be consistent on the offensive end. After a slow start to the year in December, he posted solid FG and 3 pt shooting percentages for 4 straight months. He has been in a rut over the past 6 games but I think the 4 months of quality offensive play in the middle of the year is more reliable than the first month of the year when we were the players were figuring each other out or the small 6 game sample of recent.

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