theatlfan wrote:Thanks for the list. There are some issues with our team in terms of debt and I don't know how Forbes breaks it out. The same group that owns the Hawks owns the Arena we play in as well. Sometimes I've seen these combined; sometimes I've seen them separated. In years past, I think Forbes separated it. It makes a big difference on the overall numbers though. For one, the Hawks carry all the debt - the city itself doesn't allow debt on the arena. 2nd, last I checked, the arena didn't actually make $$. This was before the sale of the hockey team though and one of the reasons for selling that team was to make the arena profitable.
I trust the Forbes numbers more than the numbers in the NBA's latest memo (discussed on the wiretap). Forbes at least does an independent look. The NBA profits seem too small this year, and I imagine Forbes numbers will be higher. That said, the TV deal should fix all this, so long term the Hawks will be on very sure footing. They're not right now though.
Having said that, the problem with this is that there is heavy competition in ATL for the entertainment $$. I am sure the same is true in Texas, but you have to understand how compressed things are here. We have recently successful NFL and MLB franchises inside ATL; we have the ACC BB and SEC FB. 6 different SEC schools, FSU's, and Clemson's FB stadium make up 8 of the 40 or so largest sports venues in the world and are within a 5 hour drive of Atlanta which is a little longer than the travel time from Dallas to San Antonio. Further, LSU isn't too much further and within a stone's throw of arguably the coolest city in the US. More and more cities in proximity to ATL are getting professional franchises as well - CHAR (NBA/NFL), ORL (NBA), TB (MLB) - that slowly eats away at our fan base. We haven't even discussed things like Spring Training or minor league BB nor non-sporting event. The fact is that you just can't expect to make a big profit here by churning out teams that would be fringe playoff teams in the West - just not going to happen. You either need to think big or get out because you won't make $$ here trying to take the middle road... not with a sports team at least.
Well, how about the team keeps trying to improve from within (while making the playoffs) for a few more years, while they become solvent, and if that doesn't work out in 2-3 years... then sure, tank away to try and become a contender.
As I noted above, I have no problem with the direction and no problem with where we are at now. But if the plan is simply to compete for the "best of the rest" title, then yeah, Ferry will have failed here.
How will Ferry have failed, if that's ownerships' mandate?
It will be a *very* rare case that a new GM will ever walk in behind a successful GM - otherwise the last guy would still have the job. Sure, Paxson might be worse than many (I would put up a couple of our GMs during my lifetime for contention in the worst NBA GM of all time), but the fact is that most every GM walks into a bad situation and having Lebron meant that Ferry's situation wasn't as bad as you make it seem. I can't think of any GM that wouldn't prefer to walk into a situation with established stars and have to deal with supporting them than walking into a tear down/rebuild situation. All he needed to do was cobble together a semi-decent supporting case - just one that could stay afloat in case Lebron went down - and 19 Ws says that, after 5 years, he was nowhere close.
Paxson was arguably the worst GM in NBA history. He blew every non-Lebron lotto pick he had, and he refused to even agree to tank to get Lebron until after the Cavs conducted an illegal workout with their players and saw Lebron was the best player on the court (the Cavs had "coincidentally" been at a practice arena Lebron was at, so they played some "pick-up games"). He lost pretty much every trade he made, and left the team directionless. Even a fan on a message board pulling names out of a hat could have done better than Paxson. Here are some of his lotto picks:
Diop- 8th pick
Wagner- 6th pick
L.Jackson- 10th pick
Langdon- 11th pick
Mihm- 7th pick
Notice, he didn't just pick badly on these 5 lotto pick...
every, single one of these picks was a complete bust. Every a clown throwing darts should luck into better players than this. He did get Andre Miller, but (after botching trade talks and getting outmanoeuvred by the Clippers... THE CLIPPERS!) he moved him for Darius Miles... who he wanted to play point guard. No, I am deadly serious. Paxson's plan was for Darius Miles to be a big point guard, like Magic Johnson. Other Paxson moves including letting Boozer out of his contract and watching him walk, trading a future lotto pick for Sasha Pavolovic, trading another first rounder for Jiri Welsch, moving young D.Anderson for Lamond Murray, and then dumping Lamond for a player who was most famous for being named Yogi. He dumped a young Matt Harpring for nothing. The guys just had no clue what he was doing.
When Ferry arrived in 2005 he walked into this mess. Ownership needed Lebron to sign an extension in 2 years time, a real worry given the team's play to date, ownership was about to let Z-Ill walk, and the remaining best players on the team were Drew Gooden, Robert Traylor, Jeff McInnis, Ira Newble, Sasha Pavlovic, Lucious Harris and old man Eric Snow. That's unspeakably bad. The team had no picks, weren't allowed to tank, and everyone turned them down in free agency. When Ferry signed the best FA he could get, Hughes, the guy got hurt almost immediately (his other pick up, Donyell Marshall, was a nice one). Ferry worked hard to turn the team around with the zero assets he had, and the team improved substantially from the collection of D-League players I named above to a solid-ish cast of role players such as Mo Williams, Delonte West, Anthony Parker, Joe Smith, Jamison, Wally World, etc. Not the best, but they were NBA players. He tried desperate moves, like trading for Shaq and Ben Wallace, and under his watch Varejao developed well (and he refused to trade him). The team correspondingly improved, from a 42 win team to a 50 win team, and then to the best record in the NBA 2 years running. Sure, Lebron was carrying these guys, but at least Ferry gave him something to carry.
What else could Ferry have done? He had no picks, no ability to tank, no free agents would sign there, and he had no assets to trade with. He made the best of an awful situation.
I think the Cavs were always going to suck in 2011, I saw it coming, and they sucked before any injuries/tank trades happened. However if they'd been healthy and trying all season I think they'd have been closer to a 25-30 win team post Lebron. I doubt the garbage Ferry was left with could have won 15 games on their own.
