atlantabbq99 wrote:A couple of years ago, i was trying to figure out why a guy that picked in the middle of the first round does way better than a guy who is picked 5 spots ahead of him. Like Tobias Harris, Kawhi, Klay, Butler, do better than guys like Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes, Terrance Ross.
I came to realize that you really can't think of guys in rankings but in tiers. Like in alot of mock drafts, Al-Farouq Aminu was four or five spots ahead of Paul George. So i could really care less if a guys is ranked 10 or 15, and i don't mind reaching for for a guy anymore. Its better to put guys in tiers and in that group, figure out which one is the best guy.
The more i look at Oubre and Winslow, the more i don't like their game. They look like fools gold. They are starting to look like Marvin or Aminu to me. They pass the eye test and that could fool alot of people.
First, yeah, I do think in tiers for the draft. If the draft thread was still around, you can see where I try to figure out tiers by taking a composite of a handful of Big Boards and have put that exercise up on those threads for the last few years. From the exercise earlier this season, the 1st tier was Okafor (and I think the love we see now for others sneaking in here has more to do with the prospect fatigue in that we've been hearing about Okafor for the last 3-4 years while the others have been able to fly a little under the radar), then KAT, Mudiay, and Russell are in the 2nd tier. Stanley Johnson and Porzingis are 2 guys who some are saying should be in that 2nd tier while others aren't as convinced. The 3rd tier goes out to about 12-13 and I really can't say that I've seen too many have Booker in this tier since shortly after KY started SEC play (which, not coincidentally, was about when Booker went from hitting > 50% from 3 before to < 30% after season-to-date). I've poked around some more recently, and I think the tiers are basically the same although maybe 3 guys that were in that 3rd tier (Looney, Oubre, Turner) were losing ground and might make up their own tier now but they are very, very close and all 3 represent something that some decision makers love. Still, it says something about Booker that many still have him in that 4th tier - and generally fairly high. When he was hot, he was absolutely scorching hot.
Still, my eyes tell me the same. When Booker's shot was falling then he can stand out, but when his shot isn't falling, he didn't impact the game at all. Sure, maybe some of that was due to the talent surrounding him being able to pick him up when he wasn't having a good game, but I'd still like to see a little more out of someone especially when he's having an off-night for over 1/2 the season. I also worry about him athletically. Not to say that everyone who lacks good or better athleticism in the NBA *has* to have length, but it sure doesn't hurt to have at least one.
As far as the other wings, I'm really not convinced on any of them although I haven't seen Hezonja outside of highlights. I do think Winslow is the best of the 3 American kids though. Can guard 2 positions on D while his O is versatile enough that he can pick his spots. He isn't a finished product by any means but if he straighten out his jumper I could see a "poor man's" Kawhi Leonard in that kid. Oubre is all about potential - he has flashed just about anything that you would want out of a wing on the basketball court and a lefty to boot. Whenever I watched him though, I keep thinking of the old saying "Potential gets you fired" - he might have a really good play, then completely disappear for the rest of the game. Wiggins was the same way until his hot stretch at the end of last season though so Oubre may be getting undeserved love from there too. I'm really not sold on Stanley Johnson either. Now, I haven't caught an entire game from Arizona yet, but in the spurts that I do watch, I really don't see this motor that all his scouting reports rave about. Floats around the perimeter on O and doesn't even take the opposition #1 assignment - that goes to Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Johnson is sneaky and does think the game though and I do give him major props for that. For instance, the offensive rebound that he nearly got last night when he snuck up on the baseline. If he wasn't unlucky, then that play could have been ended the game.