Is the Hawks window closing?

[Jamaaliver]

From an article by Mark Bradley over at myajc.com:

The Hawks’ new owners wanted to retain the same organization, more or less, and the same team, more or less. The hope was that continuity would yield the same-if-not-better results. Sad to say, it’s already possible to view last season’s 60 wins as a distant memory.

The 2014-2015 Hawks finished with the NBA’s second-best record. A set of post-Fourth power rankings by Bleacher Report rates the 2015-2016 Hawks as the league’s 14th-best team.

In January, this appeared a team of such precisely matching parts that no superstar was required or even wanted, a team that could ride its system and savvy to the NBA finals. In light of an underwhelming postseason...colder eyes are being cast. They were swept by the Cavaliers and LeBron James, the Polaris of stars. Now, barely a week after free agency commenced, the Hawks’ exquisite balance has been thrown out of plumb.

We saw in the unbeaten January how devastating and downright lovely that could be. We saw in the playoffs the flaw in that design. With all parts working, the Hawks’ whole was mighty. With even one of the parts diminished, the whole didn’t amount to a whole lot.

Back in January, conventional wisdom held the Hawks as a team in its glorious prime. We wonder today if that prime has come and gone.

Questions he poses?

• Are Budenholzer and Wilcox capable of remaking a roster in Ferry’s image?
• Is Carroll only the first brick to fall?
• Will Korver, who’s 34 and coming off two surgeries, be as good again?
• Will Millsap, who’s 30?
• Will Al Horford leave when his contract lapses next summer?

Thoughts?
Concerns?
Predictions?

[Jamaaliver]

Instead of piggybacking on Ferry's version of a temporary rebuild, I was hoping Wes and Bud would use the cap space and trade assets to craft their ideal roster.

I couldn't fathom signing Millsap to a deal worth more than a fourth of the entire salary cap.

Pulling Tiago for nothing was a master stroke. Brilliant move.

With Tiago/Horford/Teague in tow and roughly $20 million to play with Wilcox and Budenholzer could have gone a number of ways. Instead, it's clear their primary objective was to keep Millsap as seemingly any cost.

I don't think Horford leaves next summer. But he'll likely make us sweat. And it'll take a super max offer to keep him. By then Teague will be itching for his long overdue payday.

KK will struggle to repeat last year's success.

I, personally, don't believe the window is closing. But I do think this iteration has peaked. If Jeff Teague really is a 20/10 PG...this would be the season to show it.

[ATL Boy]

We basically traded out Carroll for Splitter and gained Tim Hardaway Jr. I don't think we'll be as good as last year in the regular season, but having that actual big in Splitter will pay dividends in the playoffs, especially when last year our weakness was rebounding and cold stretches in the offense.

What people are overlooking is the development of Schroder, he'll be a year older and more mature, and that in itself should help boost the bench. He must be doing something this offseason, whether that's working on his jumpshot or getting more upper body strength to be able to finish. I think this team makes it to the ECF next year too, but I won't hold my breath for anything more than that.

[D21]

We can't compare the January team with the playoffs team because of injuries.
GSW and ATL were the two best team in regular season, but GSW stayed healthy, while ATL entered the playoffs with lots of injured players.
There was a rebounding problem, yes, but if the team stayed healthy, there was no sweep Vs CLE (keeping in mind that CLE had injuries too).

[Jamaaliver]

We can't compare the January team with the playoffs team because of injuries.

I suppose. But I have a hard time believing we can repeat or even come close to duplicating the kind once-in-a-lifetime streak we put together in January. It would have been difficult to do with the exact same squad. It'll be damn near impossible with a hole on our roster at SF (& SG?).

We were flawed, Bud coached us magnificently to unseen heights.

A rotation of Paul, Horford and Tiago is perfect. Maybe the best we've had since the 80s.

But we're currently two deep at Center and PG with limited options on the wing and pretty much no young talent in the pipeline. ( except for Dennis)

I thought I might be the only observer fostering these concerns, but there seems to be a growing number of fans/pundits/skeptics who look at our roster makeup and have pause.

Our inability to find rotation players from the first round of the draft is starting to hurt us as well. SAS managed to keep their window open pass the retirement of David Robinson through drafting and player development. Let's hope the latter under Bud continues to be better than the former.

[MaceCase]

Why does every thing have to be one extreme or the other? Why is it a sensible argument to say that the Hawks are either the perfect team through January or the mediocre team in the playoffs? Why is there no room for a middle ground to say that they weren't as good as they were in January but they aren't as bad as they were in the playoffs? Why can't they be somewhere in between?

Guess what though, that in between still makes them a very good team, especially in the East. That in between means that no, their window hasn't closed and that is only further proven by the fact that the same number of teams that have similar talent and/or continuity have remained the same. No team has done anything to challenge the Eastern elite in Cleveland, Atlanta and Chicago (and even they are under the uncertainty of new leadership) but shuffle their decks. Milwaukee and Boston are depending on youth developing and continuity but that is just as likely to peter out much in the same way the mid-oughts Hawks teams that sported plenty of youth of their own. Miami seems to be exempt from the "over 30" rule that apparently only plagues the Hawks, never mind losing LeBron like that was some small piddling happenstance, their cast of CHRONICALLY injured maxed out 30 year olds are supposedly a SURE force to be reckoned with because what? The mystique of Pat Riley? The Wizards are ballyhooed over their alleged "best backcourt in the league" but they only won a series and were competitive in another because of a guy that is now donning a Clippers jersey. Do we continue to attribute stratospheric potential to their young guys and also apply an exemption to the over 30 rule to their frontcourt to make up for the clutch heroics of Pierce? The rest of the East are has beens and never weres, Indiana is the only other team that has any winning pedigree and they just decided to flip their entire winning identity.

This isn't to say that there won't be other good teams but realistically, when you can step back and give a more honest assessment of your own team that isn't based on superlatives or just pure agenda and recognize that only one team is a lock to stand before you, how can you possibly speculate that the window is closed at this juncture? Takes an equal amount of cynicism over the Hawks and optimism over the rest of the league to come to that conclusion.

[Hawk Eye]

PREACH :p

[td00]

Projections for the start of the season should have our team preseason #2-3 in the East.

That's not a dropoff by any means. The foundation for this team is very solid and with Al looming as a FA, its important to continue what we started last year.

Splitter fills a huge role for us and our rebound ranks should climb immediately.

Now, who gets DMC's 31mpg? I think H&H (Holliday & HardawayJr) have great chances to get serious minutes. They're both very athletic and can stretch the offense for us.

[Jamaaliver]

One of the staff writers over at Bleacher Report similarly asks if:

Did Atlanta Hawks Do Enough to Save Eastern Conference Contender Status?

For a 60-win team, the Atlanta Hawks sure have done a lot of roster shuffling this offseason.

Some of the shuffling was unplanned...other moves were completely deliberate, like two separate trades that brought Tiago Splitter and Tim Hardaway Jr.

Paul Millsap and Al Horford are back as starters and should contribute similarly strong campaigns, but the huge jump will come from the reserves. One of the two post replacements is Tiago Splitter, a three-year starter with the San Antonio Spurs and an NBA champion in 2014.

Words cannot properly express how much of an upgrade a healthy Splitter is over Antic as the Hawks' third big man...The former Spurs center is an excellent screener and passer, a decent rebounder, rolls to the basket well (instead of the three-point arc) and is an above-average defender in all circumstances. The 30-year-old veteran is also a nice fit next to Millsap or Horford.

Also, natural player progression should be most evident in reserve point guard Dennis Schroder and backup big man Mike Muscala.

Atlanta's starting lineup probably won't be quite as good as it was last season, despite switching out only one player. Presumably, Sefolosha will slide in to replace Carroll at the starting small forward spot...there won't be any defensive slippage at that the 3 position. In fact, you can argue that he is actually a better perimeter stopper than Carroll.

However, the offensive chasm between Sefolosha and Carroll is wide. Thabo is not close to the three-point shooter the Junkyard Dog is, which shows in the different ways opposing teams defend them. Sefolosha receives a cushion of several feet when he roams the perimeter, which clogs the lane for Atlanta's penetrators.

The health issues of Kyle Korver are also a concern. The 34-year-old shooting guard has had three surgeries since March, which is not a good sign for someone his age.

the bench made a substantial leap, while the starting five's step back should be more modest. The strong Big Three of Horford, Millsap and Jeff Teague are still on the roster, which keeps this team's floor relatively high.

[Jamaaliver]

I think health more than anything else will play the biggest role in how we do next season. With KK still recovering, Thabo recovering and the injury histories of Horford and Tiago, we have the talent to do well. But if any of those four is absent for an extended amount of time, things could be ugly.

Offensively, on the wing, you guys think we simply live and die by the three ball again, or is the coaching staff really expecting that huge of a jump from THJ?

[Jamaaliver]

NBA Blogtable Asks:

Which of last season’s playoff teams is in for the biggest dropoff in 2015-16?

Steve Aschburner, NBA.com-

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks could fall from 60 victories down to 50 or fewer in the wake of roster changes, yet still claim a top-4 seed.

Sekou Smith, NBA.com-

The Atlanta Hawks are going to be a playoff team and one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but a 60-win team again … I don’t know if they’ll be able to match the majesty of the finest season in franchise history. They had so many things fall into place last season. I just don’t know if they can count on all of those good things lining up the way they did for a second straight season...

Ian Thomsen, NBA.com-

After dominating the East during the regular season, the Hawks are going to find it difficult to win 60 games again in the absence of DeMarre Carroll – especially with several conference rivals appearing to have improved this summer. Even so, Atlanta is certain to return to the playoffs...

Lang Whitaker, NBA.com’s All Ball blog-

In the East, how about the Atlanta Hawks? Which is to say, I don’t think they’ll miss the playoffs entirely or anything like that, but last season they had that magical January, had a mostly injury-free regular season, and ended up winning 60 games. This year they’ll have to learn how to get along without DeMarre Carroll, hope they get lucky lucky with health, and have to play most of the season with a target on their backs.

[Jamaaliver]

From an article by Mark Bradley over at myajc.com:

The hope was that continuity would yield the same-if-not-better results. Sad to say, it’s already possible to view last season’s 60 wins as a distant memory.

In January, this appeared a team of such precisely matching parts that no superstar was required, a team that could ride its system and savvy to the NBA finals. In light of an underwhelming postseason...colder eyes are being cast. They were swept by the Cavaliers and LeBron James...

With all parts working, the Hawks’ whole was mighty. With even one of the parts diminished, the whole didn’t amount to a whole lot.

Back in January, conventional wisdom held the Hawks as a team in its glorious prime. We wonder today if that prime has come and gone.

Questions he poses?

With what we've seen through the first 1/3 of the season, the above skepticism regarding the Hawks's ability to repeat last season's success seems well founded.

So the question moving forward stands:

Is the Hawks window closing?

[MaceCase]

This reads a lot like coming to a conclusion that the premise doesn't suggest. Not being as good as the previous season doesn't determine whether your window has closed. The Hawks can win 50 games which of course is less than 60 yet still be a top seed in the East. As it stands, the Hawks are still just over 2.5 games from the top seed in the East, does a window close at 2.5 games?

The most basic tenet of competition is that it's not just about how you perform but how your opponent performs that determines success. In other words, the weather outside has a lot to do with what you do with your window.

[azuresou1]

I think we need to be realistic and say that our window of winning a championship has closed. Going into the playoffs last year, if we were playing at peak form, we could have closed out the series against Brooklyn and Washington quickly and given ourselves some time to rest up, and then hit Cleveland in the mouth. Maybe we still lose, but that was our chance.

Now? The magic is gone. We have too much talent to be bad, but we're mediocre. We're fundamentally in the same spot we were in those later Joe/Josh/Al years.

[PandaKidd]

EVERYONE NEEDS TO CHILL THE EFFFFF OUT.

Couple things:
1) WE WERE NEVER DUPLICATING LAST YEARS SUCCESS. They had an UNBELEIVABLE record and THEN went on a 19-0 run. 23-8 to 19-0 is basically losing 8 GAMES THROUGH HALF A SEASON, GSW might have a similar record at 50 games. Let that sink in.

2) The east has gotten significantly BETTER/HEALTHIER in the last year. LAst year you had NO BOSH, NO ROSE, NO CAVS (they were awful till they made the trade midseason) , NO PAUL GEORGE, PISTONS WERE A MESS, CELTICS WERENT GOOD. I mean look at how much better a ton of those teams have gotten FOR NOW through this part of the season.

3) The offense is going to need time. You dont want to play your best basketball in DEC/JAN. PANIC at the all star break if they are 8-10 games out of first and a 6th seed. YOu can see theres a ton of things going wrong right now:
Korver not shooting as well
Lots of 1 on 1 play
Wildly inconsistent lineups
DS
Teague

They are shooting AWFUL right now, and its going to get better. Im not panicked , you also dont HAVE to be the #1 seed to have success in the playoffs.

[Jamaaliver]

I think we need to be realistic and say that our window of winning a championship has closed...

Now? The magic is gone. We have too much talent to be bad, but we're mediocre. We're fundamentally in the same spot we were in those later Joe/Josh/Al years.

I was fearful this is what would happen this season. And it's The risk of committing to a veteran team with little room/time to grow.

I now fully agree with the above by Azure.

No longer a true championship contender. Back on the treadmill.

Is there any denying it at this point?


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[observer1995]

I predicted 48-52 wins with a max of likely 55 barring another crazy streak for this season.
Actually right on track for 48, and it’s really with at least 4 games in which just dogging it cost them the game. They have pretty clearly not taken teams that they see as inferior to them seriously several times this season.
They are not winning anything without a full on scorched earth rebuild. They are one piece away, but they aren’t acquiring that piece with a “soft reset”.
1. Top FAs are going to continue laughing very hard in their face if they try to court them.
2. They will continue to fail badly in choosing talent in the draft, unless they fire the scouting department and they won’t.
Their upside, as is every single Georgia sports team is being good, but never a legit contender, ever. All Georgia sports teams are forever in tier 2 and will never get out of it.

[Jamaaliver]

....All Georgia sports teams are forever in tier 2 and will never get out of it.

Dude. You gotta ease up on this. There is no legitimate, intelligent, educated argument to this kind of extreme statement.

I've seen Braves, GEorgia Tech win titles in the 90s. Out of nowhere. I've seen the Falcons one victory away from a NFL Championship. Out of nowhere.

There is no curse. Just a matter of finding the right people for the right posts. Making smart decisions.

Also, the Braves are about to be really good.


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[observer1995]

....All Georgia sports teams are forever in tier 2 and will never get out of it.

Dude. You gotta ease up on this. There is no legitimate, intelligent, educated argument to this kind of extreme statement.

I've seen Braves, GEorgia Tech win titles in the 90s. Out of nowhere. I've seen the Falcons one victory away from a NFL Championship. Out of nowhere.

There is no curse. Just a matter of finding the right people for the right posts. Making smart decisions.

Also, the Braves are about to be really good.


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The Braves ceiling with Fredi Gonzalez at helm is a completely humiliating divisional round exit, and it sounds like he will never be fired.

And the 90s Braves and 12/13 Falcons were both total flukes that won't happen again.

[ATL Boy]

....All Georgia sports teams are forever in tier 2 and will never get out of it.

Dude. You gotta ease up on this. There is no legitimate, intelligent, educated argument to this kind of extreme statement.

I've seen Braves, GEorgia Tech win titles in the 90s. Out of nowhere. I've seen the Falcons one victory away from a NFL Championship. Out of nowhere.

There is no curse. Just a matter of finding the right people for the right posts. Making smart decisions.

Also, the Braves are about to be really good.


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No use trying to reason here. The dude is absolutely trolling.

And the 90s Braves and 12/13 Falcons were both total flukes that won't happen again.

Are you even listening to yourself? You just said that a run of 14 straight division titles, culminated with a world series title is a "total fluke." Also the Falcons had made the playoffs in four of five seasons and had their second 13 win season in three years in 2012.