Horford won't sign a Contract Extension before next summer

[Jamaaliver]

HERE

The Hawks center will enter the final year of a contract that will pay him $12 million in 2015-16. He will become an unrestricted free agent July 1. Then, and only then Horford said, will he think about his future...

There figures to be a big payday in Horford’s future as an unrestricted free agent.

Horford made his third All-Star team last season and finished with averages of 15.2 points and 7.2 rebounds.

The NBA salary cap is expected to jump significantly ahead of the 2016-17 season, with the league’s new TV contract in effect. Horford will be one of the top free agents next summer, with the likes of Kevin Durant and likely LeBron James.

My focus right now is to get better individually and help our team be the best team that we can be. I have the same mindset and that is to help our team win and put us in a good position and try to be better.

As far as the contract stuff, I’m going to wait until the season is over. I’m not going to let that linger and be a distraction. The focus is to be on the Hawks, on our team and getting better. Once the season ends, we’ll be able to sit down and talk and figure out all of that.

I’m working on my body and working on my basketball. I want to expand my game to different things. The most important thing is I’m healthy. I’m looking forward to the season.

Thoughts?
Concerns?
Prediction?

[Jamaaliver]

Thoughts?

A Horford is about to have a monster year and then be courted as the best player at his position next summer.

Concerns?

That he legitimately could be recruited elsewhere if we regress too much this season.

That we might end up in the same situation as Portland with LaMarcus walking away for nothing.

That only a true superMAX offer will keep him around. We're talking $20+ million.

That committing $40 million+ to an undersized front court moving forward might not be the most fiscally responsible idea.

Predictions

AL retires in a Hawks uniform. Josh Smith quietly seethes from across the country on his fourth team in three years.

Teague gets traded in 2016.

Horford gets moved to PF after negotiations next summer.

[PandaKidd]

The power is in the players hands. He has no incentive to sign a deal now, he might as well play this year out and hope for big $$ in the offseason (which is 100% going to happen). We have a leg up on him , the salary cap is going to explode, and he will prob get in the 22-25 million per year range (just based on what PM just got, he has to get paid more).

I predict he will be here, till the end. If we paid PM, we would be idiots not to pay AH UNLESS he tears another titty.

I do still think Teague being traded is in the cards, however, trades are weird. The trading team almost never gets back anything as good as it gives out.

[MaceCase]

In other words, news that isn't news. A max extension for Al right now would pay him less than an average of 14 million over 3 years.......his starting max salary next year is probably 25 mil.......We can make jokes about a Florida education but ah, I think the choice here is clear without delving into conspiracy theories.

[Hawks champs]

This could also mean we could sign a bigger free agent and resign him with bird rights. Unless I've got some rules wrong this could be a good thing for the team, right?

[LeMasta]

20-25 mill? What's the salary cap going to be in the next several years? Either way, I can't imagine Al being in a uniform other than the Hawks. He's a part of my childhood. Yeah I'm still a youngblood at 17.

[PandaKidd]

I think unless there is serious regression, hes here for the long haul. Committing that money to PM , in my mind, assured us of doing whatever we have to do to sign AH next year.

Mace is right extensions dont do him any good, maybe last year was the year to do it , coming off injury, etc.

The salary cap will slide everyone up, previous 15 million dollar a year players will be looking at 20-22/year. Lebron could theoretically make 30 or more

[Maf]

I like Horford a lot. But if the Hawks decide to spend 20+ millions/year for Horford's 15+7 I don't view this as a good idea.

[PandaKidd]

This could also mean we could sign a bigger free agent and resign him with bird rights. Unless I've got some rules wrong this could be a good thing for the team, right?

i believe, he would qualify as being able to be signed over the cap, something DMC and PM couldnt ?

Someone clarify , obviously.

[PandaKidd]

I like Horford a lot. But if the Hawks decide to spend 20+ millions/year for Horford's 15+7 I don't view this as a good idea.

In a vacuum you are correct.

BUT, if , for arguments sake, the Salary cap is 60 million now............

and next year the cap is 100 million

Players are going to make more. This was actually the worst year, because guys like PM wanted to get paid NEXT YEARS cap numbers this year. So 20 million looks like a ton to PM, but, next year, it wont be that bad.

[MaceCase]

This could also mean we could sign a bigger free agent and resign him with bird rights. Unless I've got some rules wrong this could be a good thing for the team, right?

Eh, not really. Had he signed an extension it would be less than his caphold next season(107% vs. 150% of previous salary) if the intention is to both resign him and a big free agent. Essentially, him signing now gives you more money to play with next year but yes, they could go over the cap to resign him just that his cap hold is more of a hindrance if you intend to sign others.

Overall, his decision is just common sense, you don't give up this option. The difference between a 3 year max extension now and a possible 5 year max contract next season is basically the total that DeMarre signed for in Toronto..... I'll let that sink in for a moment.

[Jamaaliver]

...extensions dont do him any good, maybe last year was the year to do it , coming off injury, etc.

Yeah, I'm giving Wes, Bud & D Ferry the benefit of the doubt and assuming they at least TRIED to extend him last year when he was eligible and potentially could have been signed at a lower rate.

I like Horford a lot. But if the Hawks decide to spend 20+ millions/year for Horford's 15+7 I don't view this as a good idea.

Horford is my All-Time fave Hawk, but I somewhat agree with you. Just from a value perspective based on production...it's hard to justify. Especially when you consider Splitter and Millsap combined will make roughly $27 million+ next season. Again, all the 1st round big men we've whiffed on or missed in recent drafts comes back to bite us.

It's easier to commit big money to either Horford OR Millsap knowing we have young, cheap replacements/alternatives in the wings.

A combined $45 million+ in 2016 for our starting front court that only averages 33 points and 15 rebounds combined...is VERY ill-advised.

i believe, he would qualify as being able to be signed over the cap, something DMC and PM couldnt ?Someone clarify , obviously.

Correct. Bird rights mean his cap hold next summer still counts against our salary cap, but we can go over that salary cap amount with limited penalty.



But man....we gotta move Jeff Teague. He's going to want/deserve a HUUUUGE raise in the coming years. But with a drastically cheaper (better?) alternative behind him (Dennis) and so much money committed to Paul and AL. The economics dictate we save money at other positions.

[PandaKidd]

Depends what the cap is. If its 100 million................

20 for PM
25 for AH
18 for Teague

you still got tons of bread left to break off

[Jamaaliver]

Depends what the cap is. If its 100 million................

20 for PM
25 for AH
18 for Teague

you still got tons of bread left to break off

Opportunity Costs, man...

I'd much rather spend that $18 million on an ALL Star Caliber SF or SG. You know...a position of need.

[MaceCase]

The debate on the economics doesn't quite make sense.......at all. To say you would be able to afford an All Star caliber player at the wing (where there is a dearth league wide pushing up demand) for 18 million rather than an All Star PG (where there is an abundance league wide pushing down demand) if the market is dictating that everyone would cost more is just a tad ridiculous. That amount of money would get you Wes Matthews...not exactly an All Star caliber player. That "opportunity cost" is you selling your house in the suburbs in order to attempt to be able to afford a down payment on a beach front house....you're likely to just end up homeless or buying an even worse house than you originally had for the same price.

Beyond that, the percentage of the cap is not being taken into account when lamenting over the total amount the starting front court would make, which I believe is what Panda is touching on. They are currently at ~43% of the current cap, want to guess what percentage they would be if they are totaling 45 million salary in a 100 million cap? That's 45% for those that don't maths well. Not exactly a doomsday increase now is it unless you're, again, of the variety that can't understand basic percentages. Cap goes up, salary goes up especially in regards to Max contracts which are directly tied at 25, 30, 35% of said cap. You're working on old principles if you're honestly getting hives at paying a player 20+ million.

Further beyond that, Dennis doesn't represent a "much cheaper" replacement to Teague if he too is up for a new contract at the exact same time. If he is "better" then what exactly do you think you're going to sign him to and where do you think that is in relation to Teague? Did anyone take notice that Anthony Davis (a guy coming off his rookie deal) has the richest contract in NBA history? Again, the lack of understanding of NBA economics is baffling, this is the biggest non-issue of the offseason.

[PandaKidd]

Wont DS be entering the phase of an extension for him (coming off his rookie contract?). If he improves as much as he did from Freshman to Sophomore in his junior year, youll have to pay both decent money. DS COULD be looking at trying to be a starting PG if the job isnt here (meaning they re-up with teague).

I think it is way too early to make that call personally, If i had to choose RIGHT NOW , Id choose Teague , but its close. Teague made arguable bigger leaps in year 2 as anyone. I believe without DMC those points have to come from somewhere, and I dont think its Thabo. I think Teague will be more depended on this season as a distributor but also as an attacker.

Im not that worried about signing AH if it costs 22-25 million, because the cap should go up to keep pace with that. Again, percentage wise, THIS was the bad year, people got paid a lot this year in anticipation of the cap exploding. So PM deal in a year, and DMC , wont look that bad under the new cap. IMO of course . And im no cap expert.

I do think we have aging problems at the wing positions (I am not sold on Bazemore being the youth) so Id like to see us address that next year, a younger SG/SF in trade for teague, or outright signing has to be in the cards. But we are a long way from discussing that.

[Jamaaliver]

I think unless there is serious regression, he's here for the long haul. Committing that money to PM , in my mind, assured us of doing whatever we have to do to sign AH next year.

Reading through the initial article which started this whole conversation definitely leads me to agree with this. I also now believe that re-signing Millsap may have been done at any cost specifically to appease AL.

For me, I’m very happy in Atlanta. It’s one of those things where I don’t want any contract talks to be a distraction for my team and me. I feel like my focus this year is for us to build and be better...

It was very important. I think that was the priority for us, to make sure we brought Paul back.

...I feel like we’ve built chemistry, we trust each other and it’s important to have the same group of guys. This was our first full season, all of us together playing under the system...So I’m looking forward to this season to keep building on what we have.

HERE

[Jamaaliver]

Question for the board:

Is lavishing a huge super-max contract on Horford next summer any different from giving that massive max contract to Joe Johnson a few years back?

Al's a better leader. Joe's a more skilled player (at the time of signing anyway).

Both are looking at huge contracts that will see them start to decline by the end.

Both were (arguably) the team's best player going into free agency.

Thoughts?

Are we giving out another albatross of a contract to a 2nd tier player?
Is there no real alternative?

[ATL Boy]

Question for the board:

Is lavishing a huge super-max contract on Horford next summer any different from giving that massive max contract to Joe Johnson a few years back?

Al's a better leader. Joe's a more skilled player (at the time of signing anyway).

Both are looking at huge contracts that will see them start to decline by the end.

Both were (arguably) the team's best player going into free agency.

Thoughts?

Are we giving out another albatross of a contract to a 2nd tier player?
Is there no real alternative?

Not the same imo. When we re-signed Joe we were always a team with a second round ceiling. This team with Al has a chance to be a legitimate contender, that's the difference. We have no choice but to re-sign Al.


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[MaceCase]

Additionally, Joe's contract meant the Hawks would remain inches from the luxury tax for an ownership whom everyone knew would never spend to remain competitive despite handing out his deal. It was the pinnacle of the WLOC era of locking into mediocrity. Al's potential deal while hefty doesn't lock the team into a core as there is cap flexibility all around it and then it remains to be seen how willing Ressler is to spend for a contender but at least we know that both he and his group have the capability to spend if need be by each being independent billionaires.