OT: Are NBA teams shooting too many 3-pointers?

[Jamaaliver]

This is a line of thinking I've pondered over the last 12+ months due to our team's predilection for them and the league's growing dependence on them. I'm not against 3-pt shooting by any means. But I do see a tendency for teams to pass up good mid-range or two point shots for questionable 3 point attempts.

As a coach, it drives me crazy because I absolutely see this trend trickling down to youth sports and hurting the flow of the game at every level as a result. I understand the analytical importance on spacing the floor and get the basics of 3>2. But at the end of the day: if you're missing most of your shots...you're not taking good ones.

This write up from SB nation By Tom Ziller and Paul Flannery encapsulates some of my thinking on the subject:

FLANNERY:I believe in pace and space and I obviously know that 3 > 2. But it sure seems like we've lost our perspective on the value of the three-point shot. It's not that there are too many threes, it's that the wrong guys are taking them at the wrong times. There's smart basketball and there's bad basketball and it feels like the line is getting crossed.

ZILLER: Ah, the old pendulum has swung too far, you say? It's funny that apparently the entire league has converted religions; we should have known it'd be this way when Byron Scott's Lakers started jacking up 30 threes a night.

I think beyond that, we're seeing the pitfalls of coaches embracing specific ideologies without adjusting it to their rosters' specific strengths and limitations. It's like the Kobe-Dwight-Nash Lakers running the Princeton, or the current Knicks running the Triangle. A lot of these teams newly embracing pace and space don't have the talent to space. That's a key ingredient! It's like trying to make custard without eggs.

FLANNERY: Right. Everyone wants to be the Warriors, but it's not the system that's made them great, it's the players.

I do worry, that this extreme model of play is wreaking havoc with the natural ecosystem of the game...I'm not saying we should return to the days of contested mid-range jumpers by any means, but I do think there's a danger in the game becoming too homogenized. Trends change, but are we due for a strategic correction?

ZILLER: Of course, though the question is whether the strategic correction comes from abandonment of a failing effort (bad shooting teams/players shooting less) or by some team taking advantage of market inefficiencies to grab strong mid-range-and-in scorers (the Rudy Gay-Carmelo Anthony-Dwyane Wade types) at discount prices. I presume it'll be a mix of both.

I do want to note that even 33 percent shooting from long-range is fine: That's roughly the equivalent of shooting 50 percent on two-pointers, not accounting for the likelihood of drawing a foul or getting an offensive rebound. Teams below that mark should reconsider their shot selection. Teams above it may not improve their efficiency by reducing the three-point share, depending on personnel.

Stats in the article indicate a steady increase in 3-pointers attempted, and a steady decrease in accuracy from deep.

Thoughts?
Concerns?

Predictions?

Are NBA teams in general, or the Hawks in particular, reaching a tipping point in terms of style of play or reliance on three point shooting?

[Jamaaliver]

AL Horford has become my all time favorite Hawk and one of my favorite NBA players of all time. He is an elite mid-range player, and this year we've seen him expanding his game out to 3-pt range...with mixed results. As of today he is hitting a respectful 33% from deep.

But this past summer, if we assessed Horford's flaws and weaknesses, I don't think 3 point shooting comes immediately to mind. it's, instead, his inability to create his own shot. His lack of post game and lack of face up game are his primary shortcomings.

Adding a 3-pt shot to his repertoire has benefits. But not at the expense of what he does well, which is hit mid range shots at an elite level.

Team wide, there were a number of times last spring (March - April) when I noticed our tendency to jack up three pointers at an obscene rate. To even depend on them to bail us out of poor possessions or offensive lulls.

In the post-season, our offense stalled on numerous occasions as teams schemed to run KK and other wings off the 3-pt line.

Are we in need of offensive diversification for playoff success?

[jayu70]

I think 8 of 10 teams we've played so far have taken more 3s than Hawks. So much for the Hawks being a jump shooting team, lol.
Nothing wrong with taking them if you actually have players who can make them.

[Jamaaliver]

I think 8 of 10 teams we've played so far have taken more 3s than Hawks. So much for the Hawks being a jump shooting team, lol.
Nothing wrong with taking them if you actually have players who can make them.

That's a fair point. And it's something the authors of the article bring up.

The rate of shots taken beyond the 3-pt line in the NBA is on pace for an all-time high (27.6% of all FGA are 3 pt shots now), but the rate at which teams are hitting them is steadily dropping. Down from a league wide 36% two years ago to 33.3%.

Obviously, a number of players who think they added range over the summer are finding out that they did not. I expect those guys will largely abandon the arc...it's not that enjoyable to watch players fling up bricks and the strategy isn't unique when everyone is doing it. I'm not saying we should return to the days of contested mid-range jumpers by any means, but I do think there's a danger in the game becoming too homogenized.

[MaceCase]

NBA is a copycat league just like any other. Once innovators demonstrate a style of play that happens to be successful plenty of other coaches and GMs that missed the bus will try to jump on the bandwagon even if it means forcing square pegs into circle holes. The Warriors and Hawks won a combined 127 games between each other, 2 Conference Finals appearances and a championship while pundits were still shaking their heads and stating loudly that jump shooting teams could never achieve that. Flash forward a year later and the same teams are still at the top of the league and the reigning MVP is leading the league in points per game with over 53% of his offense coming from behind the arc. As Woody would say "the **** works" but obviously other teams can't just achieve on the fly what these teams have built their entire rosters over time to attain but they'll certainly give it a shot.

It's still very early though, most teams have played less than 10 games so far in the season so you can't make any declaration as to there being an epidemic just yet. You're bound to see fluctuations in both the number of attempts and the percentage of makes in either direction over the course of the season.

As to Al, he's a guy that made a career out of taking shots from 20 feet, it makes absolutely zero sense as to why he couldn't take a step backwards and reap the extra rewards of taking a shot from ~23 feet. He's been elite at taking a bad shot but as has been made clear, him hitting at only 33% from 3 so far has already surpassed his career average of 46% from midrange in terms of efficiency.