OT: Spurs moving away from small-ball

[Jamaaliver]

...and away from the Hawks current style of play.

In many ways, Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge and Tim Duncan are a microcosm for the entire team: slow, antiquated, annoyingly patient and undeserving of a pinch of criticism until President's Day, at the very least.

In 166 minutes, they've operated at the slowest pace in the league and chosen the midrange jumper over the three-point shot. They're still swinging the ball around, cutting and screening like they always have, but as Haralabos Voulgaris pointed out earlier this week on The Bill Simmons Podcast, the Spurs are zigging while the rest of the league zags...


According to NylonCalculus, 46.6 percent of San Antonio's field goal attempts are from "MoreyBall" zones, aka behind the three-point line and within five feet of the rim. That's 28th in the NBA, where the league average is currently 54.7 percent. They rank dead last in free-throw rate.

New personnel be damned, it's a bit of a shock to see San Antonio rank so low here. The Spurs never launched as many threes as some probably assume, but they at least used the arc's gravity to catapult their attack. Now, with Aldridge in tow, they're almost ignoring it.

Leonard and Aldridge figure to be San Antonio's crunch-time frontcourt for the next four year, but have only played a grand total of 11 minutes together without a third big on the court, per NBA Wowy.

They're dead last in isolation frequency and first in passes per game. Wooo! Go Spurs go!

Most of their key trios are still gunning at a top 10 level when spliced with a bench guy or two (Patty Mills, Manu Ginobili, Boris Diaw, etc.), and over a fifth of all their shots are "wide open," per SportVU, which is above league average.

Article provides a few scenarios where clearly SAS is not running an optimum offense, but refers to advanced stats that see them as one of the most efficient in the league.

I bring this all up to ask:

Should we be embracing a slower, more pronounced offense? As the rest of the league shifts in one direction, might it be prudent to take a similar approach as SAS has focused on slower PACE and defensive dominance?

With Splitter in tow and Tavares in the pipeline...should we look towards a BIG frontcourt in the coming years focused on defense and inside play?

[Jamaaliver]

Our offseason additions of Tiago and Tavares to a frontcourt that includes Horford and Muscala gives us 4 players capable of playing Center (to different effect) plus an ALL STAR PF to play next to them.

It does seem reasonable that we could move to adjust our personnel and offense to take advantage of this newfound size advantage.

Our current offensive system is extraordinarily effective when hitting on all cylinders. But when we're missing shots, things don't always go well. Saturday, we attempted more 3-pt attempts than 2-pt attempts for the first time in franchise history....

and scored 88 points as a result.

I'm not advocating discarding the 3-pt game altogether, after all we feature the (2nd?) purest shooter on the planet. But a renewed focus on inside play could improve offensive rebounding, increase FG%, limit opponents fast break and exploit the lack of frontcourt depth most teams currently suffer from.

[Jamaaliver]

From a similarly themed article at ESPN that focuses on small-ball emergence in today's NBA, Zach LOWE ponders what teams can do to counter or adjust to this current trend:

...it's becoming clear that playing two bigs who operate from inside the foul line is no longer a viable answer unless that team has a historic talent like LeBron. Three-out basketball is dying in a four-out league.

One obvious antidote Golden State has so far survived: Bigger teams need to slaughter small-ball opponents on the offensive glass. "It's just a matter of maintaining integrity on the boards," Budenholzer said.

But there's a flip side here, too: If a big-ball team crashes the glass and comes up empty, the small-ball enemy will be racing down the court on a 5-on-3. "If you don't get that rebound, you're in for a long night," Kidd said. "You might go on a 6-2 run, but we're going on a 10-0 run with 3s and layups." ...can you imagine the carnage if the Warriors jumped out on the break three possessions in a row?

Studies of rebounding in the SportVU era have found that most boards are snatched about 8 feet above the ground, where players of any height should be able to battle for them. "A guy like Gobert will get some you can't reach," D'Antoni said, "but the others, you should at least have a fighting chance." That's especially true for the Warriors, a ferocious gang-rebounding team. Again: If you're going to build a smaller team, you'd better find taller wings who love to play inside.

But that dirty work is grueling. Part of the challenge of going all-in on small ball is selling players on the drudgery, and your training staff has to keep those players healthy and zippy all season. The Warriors use Green at center in small doses; we don't know how he'd hold up playing there 15 or 20 minutes per game.

And for other counters, the post-up isn't going extinct. Teams are always tinkering with strategies to drive the ball into the post before defenses sandwich the target, and player-development coaches are teaching big men how to back down smaller guys on switches. Skilled post players feast on size mismatches, and the smart passers among them can punish double-teams by whipping the ball to open 3-point shooters.

In the distance looms the next anti-small-ball evolution: the stretch center. Think of a rim protector who can also shoot 3s, drive, pass and switch onto almost anyone on defense. Anthony Davis, Chris Bosh, Aldridge, Horford and Ibaka are stretch centers who still play some power forward. It gives you the best of both worlds -- the shot-blocking bigs provide on defense without the cramped spacing on offense. This is what makes the Millsap-Horford combination so potent.

[Jamaaliver]

Spurs fansite Pound the Rock similarly observes that SAS's new found focus on mid-range shooting has powered the team's offense thanks Aldridge's addition.

The Spurs were at the head of this trend, but this year sit in the bottom six in three point attempts per game, per NBA.com. The Hawks are 5th.

The Spurs are seemingly living off of the mid range, thanks to LaMarcus and Kawhi, and have shot nearly twice as many shots from this area than inside the paint, per NBA.com. While most call these long 2’s the most inefficient shots in basketball, the Spurs are making it work...And the mid-range is working, but that's not what's winning games...

The Spurs control the pace of a game with suffocating defense, leading the NBA in DefRtg is the main reason the Spurs can sport the league's second best record. But several solid positives can be seen on the other end even though the offense sometimes operates in fits and starts. Kawhi is about un-guardable right now, scoring 20+ on the regular. Tony Parker is slicing through the lane and opening up the floor. LaMarcus is keeping opposing defenses on their toes simply by being on the floor, and Manu Ginobili is sparking the second unit on a nightly basis. But the fact is that the offense isn't close to reaching its ceiling, and the Spurs are still beating teams by double digits.

On Saturday night, the Spurs held the Hawks to 12 second quarter points, and for the for the 11th time this season, the Spurs held their opponent to under 90 points. San Antonio is perfect in those games. There simply isn't another team who's playing this way, and that may be my favorite thing about this Spurs team...

[jayu70]

Pop is playing to his teams strength it's no secret formula. LMA has always had a midrange game, TP and Manu are slowly down, Kawhi is coming into his own, he isn't a s quick footed to beat defenders off the dribble consistently so he pulls up to midrange, same with Danny Green.

[MaceCase]

Pop is playing to his teams strength it's no secret formula. LMA has always had a midrange game, TP and Manu are slowly down, Kawhi is coming into his own, he isn't a s quick footed to beat defenders off the dribble consistently so he pulls up to midrange, same with Danny Green.

Breaking news: Spurs sign player who took the most amount of mid range jumpers in the entire league on promise of continuing to play PF. Thoughts on how such a signing may affect their style of play?

The Spurs have always proven that they will adapt their offensive strategy to their personnel, this isn't any different. They aren't reactive they are proactive, they ask guys "what do you do best?" then say "good, you'll be doing that for us too". That right there is the "Spurs Model", that they are an amoeba on offense while continuing to bring stifling defense. Asking a team to mimic the Spurs "size" is just as stupid as attempting to go "small" with Golden State... It's the talent of their personnel, not their listed heights that makes all the difference. BK drafted and spent a king's ransom on a team full of 6'9" players, was the key to becoming the Warriors that he should have drafted guy's 2 inches shorter instead or told them to shoot more 3s?

The Hawks don't feature two of the most prolific scoring big men in the league in their frontcourt so no, they can't go to a slow it down grind it out pace because neither Sap and especially not Horford can warp a defense towards them in the post and any pairing with Splitter or Edy will do nothing to change that. The Hawks can only thrive by having everyone including the bigs being a moving target capable of scoring from anywhere on the court at any given moment. Forcing a role or style of play onto players not capable of handling them is always a recipe for disaster, stop looking to how others bake their cakes, pay attention to the ingredients that you have in front of you as that is what's going to determine the final product.

[PandaKidd]

yeah i tend to agree, Spurs adapt to their personnel, Hawks need to do the same (which they are).

[PandaKidd]

Look i think
1) Its EARLY in the season
2) Its foolish to think you can duplicate last years success, they were 23-8 then went on a 19-0 streak. Thats NOT HAPPENING. Korver isnt shooting like he did last year (A CAREER YEAR).
3) The team doesnt have any superstars. It has 3 VERY good players in Teague, PM, AH, but they are just that, VERY GOOD.
4) They lack talent in a very basic sense of the word.

No one is building a team around PM/AH/Teague. Sorry.

Just sit back and see what adjustments are made, I think Thabo in the starting lineup is something working, but we have to hit that groove, and figure out the rotations.

[Jamaaliver]

Pop is playing to his teams strength it's no secret formula.

yeah i tend to agree, Spurs adapt to their personnel, Hawks need to do the same (which they are).

That's the thing, I'm not sure moving Horford away from the paint on out to the 3-pt line so often is to his (or OUR) benefit. He's attempted around 25% of his FGs from 3-pt range this season. That's a ridiculous amount of time for your Center to be camped out on the perimeter.As a result his FG% is the worst of his career. His Assist Rate is lower than last year. His Rebounding Rate has plummeted since Bud came aboard. As his number of 3-pt attempts grows. His rebounding rate drops.

Horford, for years, has been an elite mid-range shooter. Now we've repositioned him further from the hoop and made him into a mediocre 3-pt shooter. That's not really playing to his strength, IMO.

Jay-U, you asked C-Viv yesterday about AL's struggles in rebounding and FTAs. Wouldn't you agree that any decreases we see there might be linked to moving him further from the basket on offense. This season and last has seen AL with the fewest FTAs per game of his career. Right at 2.

The offense overall has also seen a drop this year in TS%, EFG% and Off Rating (Points Per Possession). There are no doubt a number of factors playing into this. But AL's plunging FG%, Assists Rate and Rebounding Rate likely play a part in all this as well.

My overarching concern is that Bud is becoming too enamored with his system INSTEAD of playing to the strengths of his players. I first had this thought when we drafted Adreian Payne. A low ceiling player with limited IQ...but a big man with a solid 3 point shot. Sometimes I think Bud only wants guys that fit HIS system...instead of re-fitting that system based on the strengths of our players. Pop re-fitted his system often over the years. from the staid, plotting offense when David Robinson was aboard. To a more flowing system featuring Parker and Manu. And now to this iteration featuring Kawhi and LaMarcus.

Horford in the mid range taking BIGS off the dribble and getting in position for offensive rebounds seems like it'd have a number of benefits on the game. Some tangible...others less obvious. Those have been his strengths for years.

Thoughts?

Could we use an adjustment on offense focusing more on inside play since we do feature two of the more prolific scoring big men in the NBA?

Is THIS version of AL...avg 16 ppg and 7 rpg really a max caliber player?

Full Disclosure: Though Al's shooting percentages, the team's shooting percentages and the team's offensive rating are all lower...Al's offensive rating is still a robust 115. Same as last season.

[Jamaaliver]

From an article a couple of years back...PRE-Bud.

When asked specifically where he wanted to improve, Horford said, “Just a lot of stuff off the dribble, trying to extend my range a little more.”
When Horford played his college ball at Florida he rarely took a jumper beyond the foul line, but this season Horford has pulled up from 20 feet without hesitation.
When slower centers respect Horford’s range and roam beyond the paint, Horford is able to blow by his defender thanks to his improved conditioning and handle.
Horford’s extended range has also paid dividends for rising point guard Jeff Teague. When running pick-and-pop plays, Teague has been able to find Horford at either elbow for an assist or knife through the defense when opposing centers vacate the lane to respect Horford’s jumper.

HERE

[jayu70]

Pop is playing to his teams strength it's no secret formula.

yeah i tend to agree, Spurs adapt to their personnel, Hawks need to do the same (which they are).

That's the thing, I'm not sure moving Horford away from the paint on out to the 3-pt line so often is to his (or OUR) benefit. He's attempted around 25% of his FGs from 3-pt range this season. That's a ridiculous amount of time for your Center to be camped out on the perimeter.As a result his FG% is the worst of his career. His Assist Rate is lower than last year. His Rebounding Rate has plummeted since Bud came aboard. As his number of 3-pt attempts grew. His rebounding rate dropped.

Horford, for years, has been an elite mid-range shooter. Now we've repositioned him further from the hoop and made him into a mediocre 3-pt shooter. That's not really playing to his strength, IMO.

Jay-U, you asked C-Viv yesterday about AL's struggles in rebounding and FTAs. Wouldn't you agree that any decreases we see there might be linked to moving him further from the basket on offense. This season and last has seen AL with the fewest FTAs per game of his career. Right at 2.

The offense overall has also seen a drop this year in TS%, EFG% and Off Rating (Points Per Possession). There are no doubt a number of factors playing into this. But AL's plunging FG%, Assists Rate and Rebounding Rate likely play a part in all this as well.

My overarching concern is that Bud is becoming too enamored with his system INSTEAD of playing to the strengths of his players. I first had this thought when we drafted Adreian Payne. A low ceiling player with limited IQ...but a big man with a solid 3 point shot. Sometimes I think Bud only wants guys that fit HIS system...instead of re-fitting that system based on the strengths of our players. Pop re-fitted his system often over the years. from the staid, plotting offense when David Robinson was aboard. To a more flowing system featuring Parker and Manu. And now to this iteration featuring Kawhi and LaMarcus.

Horford in the mid range taking BIGS off the dribble and getting in position for offensive rebounds seems like it'd have a number of benefits on the game. Some tangible...others less obvious. Those have been his strengths for years.

Thoughts?

Could we use an adjustment on offense focusing more on inside play since we do feature two of the more prolific scoring big men in the NBA?

Is THIS version of AL...avg 16 ppg and 7 rpg really a max caliber player?

you get no argument from me regarding Al shooting 3's. I prefer him in the mid range. The Al I saw against OKC is the Al I want to see. Aggressive on both offense and defense.
Al could be shooting from halfcourt on offense (my issue isn't O-Rebs) I still want him putting forth the EFFORT to grab DEFENSIVE rebounds. 3 and 5 defensive rebounds is just unacceptable.

[MaceCase]

It makes about zero sense to post articles on advanced statistics and then make inferences that advanced statistics aren't backing up at all and intermingle it with basic boxscore stats that have little meaning.

Al currently has his highest Offensive rebound rate in the past 4 seasons. In fact, once you exclude the 11 game injury shortened season then he is having the 3rd best offensive rebounding year of his entire career. That directly refutes the argument that taking 3s are taking him further away from rebounds on offense because he is pulling them down far better than the previous 5 seasons where he operated exclusively in the midrange and closer.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01.html#advanced::11

Where he has dropped noticeably is in his Defensive rebounding as that is a new career low excluding his 11 game injury season. There is little correlation that I can think of between a player taking a 3 on offense affecting his rebounding on defense.

Al has virtually matched his Free Throw Rate from the previous season which was a career low and has virtually matched his TS% despite a drop in his FG% because 3s > 2s therefore he's still exactly as efficient offensively as he's been over his last 3 healthy seasons. His drop in Assist Rate matches to the T the team's drop in 3point shooting, you don't get assists if players don't convert.


So in conclusion, no you haven't presented a case Bud isn't using his players to their best abilities. No, Al Horford taking 3s isn't the problem at all, Al Horford continuing to play soft and trying to coast to his next contract injury free is a much easier conclusion to reach.

[Jamaaliver]

Al currently has his highest Offensive rebound rate in the past 4 seasons. In fact, once you exclude the 11 game injury shortened season then he is having the 3rd best offensive rebounding year of his entire career. That directly refutes the argument that taking 3s are taking him further away from rebounds on offense because he is pulling them down far better than the previous 5 seasons where he operated exclusively in the midrange and closer.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01.html#advanced::11

Where he has dropped noticeably is in his Defensive rebounding as that is a new career low excluding his 11 game injury season. There is little correlation that I can think of between a player taking a 3 on offense affecting his rebounding on defense.

Al has virtually matched his Free Throw Rate from the previous season which was a career low and has virtually matched his TS% despite a drop in his FG% because 3s > 2s therefore he's still exactly as efficient offensively as he's been over his last 3 healthy seasons. His drop in Assist Rate matches to the T the team's drop in 3point shooting, you don't get assists if players don't convert.

These are all excellent points. Thank you for bringing them up.

You said something earlier that stuck with me and led me to dig up that old quote about Horford wanting to improve his 'off-the-dribble' comment.

You mention that Horford is not remotely a threat in the post.

neither Sap and especially not Horford can warp a defense towards them in the post...

And I 100% agree. The biggest hole in his [offensive] game is the fact that he can't create his own shot and he can't score consistently in the post. And seeing him focus so much time and energy on moving AWAY from the paint instead on focusing on his inside game - whether facing up or posting up - as a means to accentuate his mid-range elite shooting is mind-boggling.

Think of it this way: Pop has two top scoring options whose strength is mid-range shooting. So he re-fits the offense to emphasize that skillset. Bud has an all star player whose ONLY elite offensive skill is mid-range shooting...and encourages him to move away from that for significant chunks of the game?

I don't see that as 'playing to his strengths'. I see it as devotion to a system...and reshaping the player's skillset to FIT THAT SYSTEM.

RIP, for years, has argued that AL's best position was Center because his speed allowed him to take advantage of bigger, slower Centers. AL, in his last season under Drew (and most productive season) mentions this same dynamic as something he'd focused on in his offseason training.

Moving further away from that strength seems like more devotion to scheme than to personnel. Which is very much anti-Spurs. I also don't believe in any offense that allows/encourages lower percentage shots. We've seen in post season play that when these don't fall...we struggle score because of the lack of diversity on offense.

I do not believe Bud's offense can function effectively enough in the post-season with the caliber of talent we have. One way to counter the inevitable fall off we suffer offensively in the playoffs every year as a jump shooting team: focus on using our three above average bigs in the paint more.

NOTE: The ultimate point of the OP wasn't that we should simply emulate the SPURS. I should have articulated that more clearly. My intent was simply to ask if we, too, might benefit from moving further away from the league's new obsession with small-ball, pace-and-space.

[MaceCase]

Al isn't an elite mid-range shooter to be compared to Duncan and Adridge though, sorry. You wouldn't put Kyle in the same sentence as being the same caliber of shooter as Curry would you? Why? Because making 50% of a 100 shots that you were assisted on 90% of the time doesn't put you in the same class as someone who makes 45% of 400 shots that they were assisted on less than 50% of the time. It's what you're overlooking when you bandy about the word "elite".

Al's strength is the assisted jumper, not the jumper. Bud's system is creating easy assisted buckets for players who cannot create on their own. Where exactly is the disconnect here?

Asking a guy to take assisted jumpers from further away is the natural evolution of their "strength" because the midrange shot is a bad shot, period. A player almost always has to hit it at close to 55% to make it of value to an offense from all recorded aspects including rebounding, drawing fouls, spacing and just overall efficiency whereas they can be fairly average from 3 to affect the same if not greater results. The only time that is relaxed is if a player can warp the defense towards them from midrange for example from the triple threat as opposed to being the secondary or tertiary option on a more efficient shot attempt by another player. As is, Al has already surpassed his "elite" ability from mid-range by being just above average from outside the perimeter, the team as a whole despite drops in assists, FG%, and 3P% from last year is still managing a 9th ranking from last year's 6th ranking in offense. The trouble is defense, which again, has zero to do with Al taking 3s.

The "lack of diversity on offense" of the Atlanta Hawks is due to the players having a lack of diversity to their individual offense... and not Bud somehow trying to curtail their skills and strengths to his system. He is in fact emphasizing what would be considered a weakness in any other instance and turning that into a strength. Duncan, Aldridge and now Kawhi in addition to Parker and Ginobili can create offense at elite or near elite levels which is the main ingredient of playing an inside out offense, Bud can't flip his offense to emulate that because outside of Millsap and Teague not a single player on the team can create offense to even an average degree. So no, it isn't even remotely an option for the Hawks at all to emulate what the Spurs are doing especially when they feature someone as limited as Al Horford as one of their top players.

[ChosunX]

Pop is playing to his teams strength it's no secret formula. LMA has always had a midrange game, TP and Manu are slowly down, Kawhi is coming into his own, he isn't a s quick footed to beat defenders off the dribble consistently so he pulls up to midrange, same with Danny Green.

It;s not just quickness with Danny he should not dribble and penetrate unless he has to period.