ImageImage

Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG?

Moderators: dms269, HMFFL, Jamaaliver

User avatar
Jamaaliver
Forum Mod - Hawks
Forum Mod - Hawks
Posts: 45,159
And1: 17,179
Joined: Sep 22, 2005
Location: Officially a citizen of the World...
Contact:
     

Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#1 » by Jamaaliver » Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:06 pm

Statistically speaking, it's true. And not all that close, either. Hawkshoop and PeachtreeHoops both expound on the team's improved performance with DS at the reins.


Read on Twitter


Buddy Grizzard wrote:The basis of my proclamation was the Hawks’ relative lack of success with Jeff Teague on the floor compared to Dennis Schröder. According to NBA.com, in 675 minutes this season with Schröder on the floor, the Hawks have outscored opponents by 6.4 points per 100 possessions. Thus, when Dennis is on the court the Hawks are normally on pace to win by about six points.

In 821 minutes this season with Teague on court, the Hawks are being outscored by 1.7 points per 100 possessions. This means the Hawks are more than eight points per 100 possessions better with Schröder on court than Teague. The difference is dramatic on both ends of the court. Opponents are only scoring 98.8 points per 100 possessions with Schröder on the court compared to 103.2 with Teague. On the offensive end, the Hawks are lighting it up to the tune of 105.1 points per 100 possessions with Schröder on court compared to just 101.5 with Teague. Keep in mind that when Teague and Schröder share the court or bench, their on/off numbers are exactly equal. Any variance in these numbers is the result of minutes played with one on the bench and the other on the court.

Teague, like fellow incumbent All-Stars Korver and Horford, has seen a significant decline in his PER from 20.6 last season to 17.9 through 31 games this season.

Among the Hawks’ key reserves, Schröder's PER has improved over last season while Thabo Sefolosha is playing at roughly the same level.

Here

For the season, Schröder net rating of 8.2 is third best on the team. Jeff Teague's on the other hand is -1.6. With that in mind, it is not terribly surprising to see that four of Atlanta's top six lineup combinations according to net rating feature Schröder at point guard.
Here
User avatar
Jamaaliver
Forum Mod - Hawks
Forum Mod - Hawks
Posts: 45,159
And1: 17,179
Joined: Sep 22, 2005
Location: Officially a citizen of the World...
Contact:
     

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#2 » by Jamaaliver » Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:33 pm

From Buddy Grizzard at Halftime of the NY-ATL game:

Read on Twitter

Dennis would finish the game with a +/- of +25. The best of any player on either team.

Of the Hawks most effective lineups, DS is a fixture. He's the PG for the two best offensive lineups, the two best defensive lineups and for the top three lineups by NET Rating. Per NBA.com

Head to head: Their per 36 minute avgs are very comparable:
Dennis averages 18 points, 7.3 assists and 4 rebounds per game per 36 minutes.

Teague averages 19 points, 7.2 assists and 3 rebounds per game per 36 minutes.


Their DefRtgs and Assist/Turnover ratios are almost identical. JT0 has a much better OffRtg.

In the month of DEC:
Jeff is avg 13 ppg and 5 apg. While Dennis avg 11 ppg and 4 apg.


Teague is clearly the more seasoned of the two. And rightfully so in his 7th NBA season.
But, it's clear the team operates at a higher level with Dennis in at PG...

Thoughts?
Concerns?

Predictions?
jayu70
RealGM
Posts: 20,249
And1: 12,908
Joined: Mar 11, 2014
   

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#3 » by jayu70 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:30 am

Teague has played better the last 3 or so games but when Dennis comes in the defense is loads better and he's actually doing a better job running the offense, he's also hitting his midrange shot at a ridiculous clip. The pace of the offense also picks up with Dennis.

Is it time to start Dennis in lieu of Teague? I still say No.
1. I don't think Teague's fragile psyche can handle it.
2. Sometimes I think Dennis is ready other times he gives me pause.
If Dennis is going to be given the starting job, then Teague would need to be traded (not advocating)
I like our PG positions, it's one of positions of strength, I don't like the idea of weakening it by trading Teague unless we get a CLEAR UPGRADE at SG/SF, nothing lateral.
User avatar
Jamaaliver
Forum Mod - Hawks
Forum Mod - Hawks
Posts: 45,159
And1: 17,179
Joined: Sep 22, 2005
Location: Officially a citizen of the World...
Contact:
     

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#4 » by Jamaaliver » Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:15 am

jayu70 wrote:Teague has played better the last 3 or so games but when Dennis comes in the defense is loads better and he's actually doing a better job running the offense, he's also hitting his midrange shot at a ridiculous clip. The pace of the offense also picks up with Dennis.

Is it time to start Dennis in lieu of Teague? I still say No.
1. I don't think Teague's fragile psyche can handle it.
2. Sometimes I think Dennis is ready other times he gives me pause.
If Dennis is going to be given the starting job, then Teague would need to be traded (not advocating)
I like our PG positions, it's one of positions of strength, I don't like the idea of weakening it by trading Teague unless we get a CLEAR UPGRADE at SG/SF, nothing lateral.


Every bit of this is accurate and reasonable. DS looked terrible to start the season, but has regained his form from last Dec.

I do believe DS is ready to be a starter...somewhere. He still has his moments of erratic play, but he needs (deserves?) the chance to play through those mistakes.


And, if we're ever going to trade Teague, this is the time. The trade deadline is less than 8 weeks away. If it doesn't occur by Feb 18, 2016...we'd have to wait until the offseason when he will simply be an expiring contract.

This past summer, Teague had 2 full years left under contract and was coming off an all-star season. That was the highest his stock has ever been. THAT was the time to trade him. The longer we wait now, the less we can expect to get in return from trade. Teague and that #15 pick would have been a really good package to dangle in talks.

At this point, I'm willing to move Teague for the best package we can acquire. And even willing to include KK and/or Horford in talks as well.
MaceCase
General Manager
Posts: 8,363
And1: 2,483
Joined: Apr 08, 2009
       

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#5 » by MaceCase » Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:38 am

All I can say is it doesn't take much to have outplayed Jeffrey for most of this season. It's not to diminish what Dennis is doing as he's really bounced back from a disastrous first quarter of the season himself but Jeffrey has had a pretty substandard year so far.

As it stands, Jeffrey's peak has still been greater than what Dennis is putting up and as the incumbent starter and reigning All Star you have to show him confidence and give him the opportunity to regain that mojo. He's appeared to be on his way back to returning to his previous form over the last couple of games so there's evidence that he can still play up to that level so now it's only a matter of demonstrating consistency.

Either way, it's nice having the guards return to being one of the most dangerous parts of the team as opposed to the worst. The focus should be on restablishing them as one of the most potent 1-2 punches in the league rather than trying to promote one over the other.
*WLONC*
We Like Our New Core
Rip2137
Analyst
Posts: 3,317
And1: 228
Joined: Jun 24, 2006

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#6 » by Rip2137 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 3:55 am

Lmao. I was waiting for when this thread would pop up. I knew there would be a stretch where Dennis would play well and the numbers would look skewed and my friend Jamal would throw a thread up. About a week and a half ago, nothing in this thread was true. The numbers were worse for Dennis, better for Teague, Dennis was shooting sub 40%, sub 30% from three and costing us leads with his horrid shot selection and usual bad turnovers. Playing late in some blowout losses and some token runs spiked his numbers.

That said, he has played well of late and was better than Teague in that boston game, but their is no way you could have watched every game this season ans think that Dennis is ready to be a starter or that he would make this team better.

Mike Scotts emergence, Thabo's increased shooting efficiency and playing against backups will make some paper numbers look better, especially with Horforvacavich and Korvers decreased efficiency requires you to look at a bigger picture.
User avatar
Jamaaliver
Forum Mod - Hawks
Forum Mod - Hawks
Posts: 45,159
And1: 17,179
Joined: Sep 22, 2005
Location: Officially a citizen of the World...
Contact:
     

Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#7 » by Jamaaliver » Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:40 am

Rip2137 wrote:Lmao. I was waiting for when this thread would pop up. I knew there would be a stretch where Dennis would play well and the numbers would look skewed and my friend Jamal would throw a thread up. About a week and a half ago, nothing in this thread was true. The numbers were worse for Dennis, better for Teague, Dennis was shooting sub 40%, sub 30% from three and costing us leads with his horrid shot selection and usual bad turnovers. Playing late in some blowout losses and some token runs spiked his numbers.


:-?

I'm not sure if you fully read through the numbers...but they're based on the season as a whole. Not just the past few games.

As far as all the advanced stats magically changing over the course of a few days: I don't believe you.

Dennis has been god awful for the majority of the season thus far. I do not believe every stat suddenly skewed in the last ten days. Especially with Teague returning to form over the past week.

I'm Always open to hearing alternate opinions...but don't belittle the numbers just because you disagree with the conclusion they lead to.

The hard truth is: through 820+ minutes this season, Jeff Teague has been sub par. His production is down from last year. His efficiency is down from last year. His effect on this team is down from last year. And it's not just based in the last tend days.
MaceCase
General Manager
Posts: 8,363
And1: 2,483
Joined: Apr 08, 2009
       

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#8 » by MaceCase » Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:50 am

The problem I have with the situation is that this isn't Bledsoe behind CP3, this isn't Reggie Jackson behind Westbrook, heck it isn't even Lowry behind Conley, you know guys who have no chance of starting over superstars and high draft picks ahead of them. It shouldn't take a down year from Jeff Teague (yes, Jeff Teague) by slightly dubious metrics for Dennis to start to look good in comparison. That doesn't help his case to start at all. Surely Dennis has a fair shot at usurping the starting role from a player of Jeffrey's caliber but he's honestly failed to so far.

By individual metrics Jeffrey is still clearly the better player despite his regression (and he's blowing Dennis out the water on efficiency) so we are having to resort to net ratings and other metrics heavily influenced by the surrounding players both on and off the court to find favor for Dennis. I say that that is dubious because one of the articles even focuses on how Bazemore looks disastrous by the metric despite the team being on a 62 win pace with him in the starting lineup and him matching to the T the production of the guy that he replaced. That points to either Bud doing something wonky with his lineups or there needing to be a far larger sample to parse out anything definitive not that it could be entirely definitive as a singular stat regardless.
*WLONC*
We Like Our New Core
Rip2137
Analyst
Posts: 3,317
And1: 228
Joined: Jun 24, 2006

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#9 » by Rip2137 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:20 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:
Rip2137 wrote:Lmao. I was waiting for when this thread would pop up. I knew there would be a stretch where Dennis would play well and the numbers would look skewed and my friend Jamal would throw a thread up. About a week and a half ago, nothing in this thread was true. The numbers were worse for Dennis, better for Teague, Dennis was shooting sub 40%, sub 30% from three and costing us leads with his horrid shot selection and usual bad turnovers. Playing late in some blowout losses and some token runs spiked his numbers.


:-?

I'm not sure if you fully read through the numbers...but they're based on the season as a whole. Not just the past few games.

As far as all the advanced stats magically changing over the course of a few days: I don't believe you.

Dennis has been god awful for the majority of the season thus far. I do not believe every stat suddenly skewed in the last ten days. Especially with Teague returning to form over the past week.

I'm Always open to hearing alternate opinions...but don't belittle the numbers just because you disagree with the conclusion they lead to.

The hard truth is: through 820+ minutes this season, Jeff Teague has been sub par. His production is down from last year. His efficiency is down from last year. His effect on this team is down from last year. And it's not just based in the last tend days.



Yeah, except it is based on the past week or so. The last 10 days has accounted for 20% of our schedule so far. Our bench has been doubling and tripling up opposing bench scoring during our win streak with Dennis being on the court this early in a season will definitely skew the numbers favor.
If you felt the team was looking better with Dennis, you would have been screaming it all year. Instead you have been quiet as a church mouse because dennis was hurting the team, to the point that EVERY "What's wrong with the Hawks" story from 2 weeks ago mentioned his regression as one of the main reasons. But oddly you didn't post any of those.
The question posed was not "Is Teague having a great year" because he isn't and I have said as much. The question was "are the Hawks better with Dennis at PG" and the answer is no. A week of taking better shots pushed his efficiency up tremendously and his fg% % has jumped nearly 10%. That doesnt change the fact this team is better with Teague than Schroder for right now.

Schroder/Patterson/Thabo/Scott/Splitter have been lights out to the man during this streak. Horford, Korver and to an extent, Bazemore have not been their sharpest.
User avatar
PandaKidd
Analyst
Posts: 3,356
And1: 637
Joined: Aug 22, 2012
     

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#10 » by PandaKidd » Mon Dec 28, 2015 3:22 pm

MaceCase wrote:The problem I have with the situation is that this isn't Bledsoe behind CP3, this isn't Reggie Jackson behind Westbrook, heck it isn't even Lowry behind Conley, you know guys who have no chance of starting over superstars and high draft picks ahead of them. It shouldn't take a down year from Jeff Teague (yes, Jeff Teague) by slightly dubious metrics for Dennis to start to look good in comparison. That doesn't help his case to start at all. Surely Dennis has a fair shot at usurping the starting role from a player of Jeffrey's caliber but he's honestly failed to so far.

By individual metrics Jeffrey is still clearly the better player despite his regression (and he's blowing Dennis out the water on efficiency) so we are having to resort to net ratings and other metrics heavily influenced by the surrounding players both on and off the court to find favor for Dennis. I say that that is dubious because one of the articles even focuses on how Bazemore looks disastrous by the metric despite the team being on a 62 win pace with him in the starting lineup and him matching to the T the production of the guy that he replaced. That points to either Bud doing something wonky with his lineups or there needing to be a far larger sample to parse out anything definitive not that it could be entirely definitive as a singular stat regardless.

Pretty much this.

Im sorry, I watch a ton of Hawks basketball, and yes I know I go to games 50% of the year, I dont see ANYTHING that DS does that makes him clearly the better option over Teague. They both have strengths and weaknesses (i know, SHOCKING), but I still think teague is the better option right now.

DS has every opportunity to take the job, he still cant do it. I mean i see FLASHES of really high ceiling with DS, then he usually follows it up with a bad pass, or a boneheaded play.

Teagues problem is the hot and cold. They dominant performance one night and the disappearing act the next.
User avatar
Jamaaliver
Forum Mod - Hawks
Forum Mod - Hawks
Posts: 45,159
And1: 17,179
Joined: Sep 22, 2005
Location: Officially a citizen of the World...
Contact:
     

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#11 » by Jamaaliver » Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:00 pm

Rip2137 wrote:If you felt the team was looking better with Dennis, you would have been screaming it all year. Instead you have been quiet as a church mouse because dennis was hurting the team, to the point that EVERY "What's wrong with the Hawks" story from 2 weeks ago mentioned his regression as one of the main reasons. But oddly you didn't post any of those.
The question posed was not "Is Teague having a great year" because he isn't and I have said as much. The question was "are the Hawks better with Dennis at PG" and the answer is no. A week of taking better shots pushed his efficiency up tremendously and his fg% % has jumped nearly 10%. That doesnt change the fact this team is better with Teague than Schroder for right now.

Schroder/Patterson/Thabo/Scott/Splitter have been lights out to the man during this streak. Horford, Korver and to an extent, Bazemore have not been their sharpest.



Sorry. I'm not buying it. Dennis has been awful this season. Pitiful. He has not been good.

And that's why it was so surprising that pretty much all of the most effective lineups included Dennis over Teague. Now, it's worth mentioning that neither of the articles quoted above were about Dennis Schroder. Neither even advocate moving Dennis into the starting lineup. (The initial piece by Buddy Grizzard actually predicts Teague is rounding into form.)

But it's pretty noteworthy that through the first 1/3 of an NBA season, the team has been much more efficient when Dennis is in the lineup over Teague. As far as me not posting the 'Dennis is terrible' articles...call it bad timing. (Thanksgiving through Christmas are notoriously busy times in the Jamaaliver household.)

Rip2137 wrote:That doesnt change the fact this team is better with Teague than Schroder for right now

Perhaps this is true. But it's difficult to argue that Teague has been the drastically better option this season.






MaceCase wrote:It shouldn't take a down year from Jeff Teague for Dennis to start to look good in comparison. That doesn't help his case to start at all. By individual metrics Jeffrey is still clearly the better player.


Every bit of this is accurate and reasonable.
Rip2137
Analyst
Posts: 3,317
And1: 228
Joined: Jun 24, 2006

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#12 » by Rip2137 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:48 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:
Rip2137 wrote:If you felt the team was looking better with Dennis, you would have been screaming it all year. Instead you have been quiet as a church mouse because dennis was hurting the team, to the point that EVERY "What's wrong with the Hawks" story from 2 weeks ago mentioned his regression as one of the main reasons. But oddly you didn't post any of those.
The question posed was not "Is Teague having a great year" because he isn't and I have said as much. The question was "are the Hawks better with Dennis at PG" and the answer is no. A week of taking better shots pushed his efficiency up tremendously and his fg% % has jumped nearly 10%. That doesnt change the fact this team is better with Teague than Schroder for right now.

Schroder/Patterson/Thabo/Scott/Splitter have been lights out to the man during this streak. Horford, Korver and to an extent, Bazemore have not been their sharpest.



Sorry. I'm not buying it. Dennis has been awful this season. Pitiful. He has not been good.

And that's why it was so surprising that pretty much all of the most effective lineups included Dennis over Teague. Now, it's worth mentioning that neither of the articles quoted above were about Dennis Schroder. Neither even advocate moving Dennis into the starting lineup. (The initial piece by Buddy Grizzard actually predicts Teague is rounding into form.)

But it's pretty noteworthy that through the first 1/3 of an NBA season, the team has been much more efficient when Dennis is in the lineup over Teague. As far as me not posting the 'Dennis is terrible' articles...call it bad timing. (Thanksgiving through Christmas are notoriously busy times in the Jamaaliver household.)

Rip2137 wrote:That doesnt change the fact this team is better with Teague than Schroder for right now

Perhaps this is true. But it's difficult to argue that Teague has been the drastically better option this season.

Okay, I am confused, what aren't you buying?

That you haven't been trumpeting how much better Dennis has been all year? Because you haven't because you couldn't.

That articles weren't talking about Dennis's regression just two weeks ago?

http://www.sbnation.com/2015/12/15/10153760/atlanta-hawks-breakdown-statistics-ok-nba?_ga=1.117899785.1622928599.1445271365

http://atlallday.com/2015/12/08/dennis-schroder-inefficient-play-effecting-atlanta-hawks/

it's not noteworthy because it is only true due to the last 6 games. You are taking a 6 game stretch and ignore the other 22 games. This early in the season, 6 games can swing a lot of advanced statistics. Again, we are talking about TWENTY PERCENT of our season has been played over the last week and a half and Schroder along with Mike Scott are on great runs. Korver and Horford have been average at best.

Teague has been a lot better than Schroder this year, but that's not saying much. Teague was playing inconsistent ball to start the year and Schroder was playing consistently horrible ball. Over the last few weeks, Schroder has been playing good basketball while Teague has been hot or cold. That's it.

I have seen you dismiss MONTHS of good play from Teague and call his slumps "coming back down to earth" before. I can't understand how you don't see it as hypocritical at best to pretend like you are being impartial when stating that Dennis has been the better player on the strength of a 6 game run(which, again, is when the numbers actually started to favor Dennis) and ignoring who Dennis was playing against while on the court.

I, quite harshly criticized both of their play earlier this year. But you have admit its just personal bias to say Dennis Schroder needs to be starting for this team and the team would be better for it. He didn't look like he needed to be in the rotation 2 weeks ago.





MaceCase wrote:It shouldn't take a down year from Jeff Teague for Dennis to start to look good in comparison. That doesn't help his case to start at all. By individual metrics Jeffrey is still clearly the better player.


Every bit of this is accurate and reasonable.
Rip2137
Analyst
Posts: 3,317
And1: 228
Joined: Jun 24, 2006

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#13 » by Rip2137 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:50 pm

Rip2137 wrote:
Jamaaliver wrote:
Rip2137 wrote:If you felt the team was looking better with Dennis, you would have been screaming it all year. Instead you have been quiet as a church mouse because dennis was hurting the team, to the point that EVERY "What's wrong with the Hawks" story from 2 weeks ago mentioned his regression as one of the main reasons. But oddly you didn't post any of those.
The question posed was not "Is Teague having a great year" because he isn't and I have said as much. The question was "are the Hawks better with Dennis at PG" and the answer is no. A week of taking better shots pushed his efficiency up tremendously and his fg% % has jumped nearly 10%. That doesnt change the fact this team is better with Teague than Schroder for right now.

Schroder/Patterson/Thabo/Scott/Splitter have been lights out to the man during this streak. Horford, Korver and to an extent, Bazemore have not been their sharpest.



Sorry. I'm not buying it. Dennis has been awful this season. Pitiful. He has not been good.

And that's why it was so surprising that pretty much all of the most effective lineups included Dennis over Teague. Now, it's worth mentioning that neither of the articles quoted above were about Dennis Schroder. Neither even advocate moving Dennis into the starting lineup. (The initial piece by Buddy Grizzard actually predicts Teague is rounding into form.)

But it's pretty noteworthy that through the first 1/3 of an NBA season, the team has been much more efficient when Dennis is in the lineup over Teague. As far as me not posting the 'Dennis is terrible' articles...call it bad timing. (Thanksgiving through Christmas are notoriously busy times in the Jamaaliver household.)

Rip2137 wrote:That doesnt change the fact this team is better with Teague than Schroder for right now

Perhaps this is true. But it's difficult to argue that Teague has been the drastically better option this season.






MaceCase wrote:It shouldn't take a down year from Jeff Teague for Dennis to start to look good in comparison. That doesn't help his case to start at all. By individual metrics Jeffrey is still clearly the better player.


Every bit of this is accurate and reasonable.


Edit: I am bad at like...quoting stuff. LOL


Okay, I am confused, what aren't you buying?

That you haven't been trumpeting how much better Dennis has been all year? Because you haven't because you couldn't.

That articles weren't talking about Dennis's regression just two weeks ago?

http://www.sbnation.com/2015/12/15/10153760/atlanta-hawks-breakdown-statistics-ok-nba?_ga=1.117899785.1622928599.1445271365

http://atlallday.com/2015/12/08/dennis-schroder-inefficient-play-effecting-atlanta-hawks/

it's not noteworthy because it is only true due to the last 6 games. You are taking a 6 game stretch and ignore the other 22 games. This early in the season, 6 games can swing a lot of advanced statistics. Again, we are talking about TWENTY PERCENT of our season has been played over the last week and a half and Schroder along with Mike Scott are on great runs. Korver and Horford have been average at best.

Teague has been a lot better than Schroder this year, but that's not saying much. Teague was playing inconsistent ball to start the year and Schroder was playing consistently horrible ball. Over the last few weeks, Schroder has been playing good basketball while Teague has been hot or cold. That's it.

I have seen you dismiss MONTHS of good play from Teague and call his slumps "coming back down to earth" before. I can't understand how you don't see it as hypocritical at best to pretend like you are being impartial when stating that Dennis has been the better player on the strength of a 6 game run(which, again, is when the numbers actually started to favor Dennis) and ignoring who Dennis was playing against while on the court.

I, quite harshly criticized both of their play earlier this year. But you have admit its just personal bias to say Dennis Schroder needs to be starting for this team and the team would be better for it. He didn't look like he needed to be in the rotation 2 weeks ago.
User avatar
PandaKidd
Analyst
Posts: 3,356
And1: 637
Joined: Aug 22, 2012
     

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#14 » by PandaKidd » Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:57 pm

Again, the answer isnt at PG, putting DS in isnt going to send us on a 19 game winning streak. THe differences between Teague and DS are negligible. They both do different things well, and they both have serious flaws.
User avatar
Jamaaliver
Forum Mod - Hawks
Forum Mod - Hawks
Posts: 45,159
And1: 17,179
Joined: Sep 22, 2005
Location: Officially a citizen of the World...
Contact:
     

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#15 » by Jamaaliver » Mon Dec 28, 2015 8:10 pm

Rip2137 wrote:it's not noteworthy because it is only true due to the last 6 games. You are taking a 6 game stretch and ignore the other 22 games. This early in the season, 6 games can swing a lot of advanced statistics. Again, we are talking about TWENTY PERCENT of our season has been played over the last week and a half and Schroder along with Mike Scott are on great runs. Korver and Horford have been average at best.


That's what I am not buying. I do not believe the recent 6 game streak negates the other 26 games

I'm not buying that Dennis's recent play is anything more than a blip at this point in his career.

The post is NOT about the past 6 games. THIS THREAD IS NOT ABOUT THE PAST 6 GAMES

THIS THREAD IS NOT ABOUT DENNIS'S LAST 6 GAMES.

It's about how the over the course of the season, Teague's NET rating when on the court is negative. It's about how over the course of the season Dennis's NET Rating is not only positive....it's drastically higher than Teague.

This means NOTHING in and of itself. But it should be a part of the conversation.

Dennis has played like crap for this entire season, no one is defending or saying otherwise. But even when he has struggled individually, the team has FROM A STATISTICAL PERSPECTIVE, performed better than when he is off.

It's something to be mindful of moving forward.

This is not a 'Dennis now playing awesome thread'. It's a, HMMM..."Our backup PG has a better effect on the team", thread.

I DON'T GIVE A CR@P ABOUT DENNIS'S LAST 6 GAMES

But the lineups that have been most successful this year, offensively and defensively, have not featured Teague at PG or at SG.
Skyhawk1
Starter
Posts: 2,106
And1: 102
Joined: Oct 06, 2005
Location: Atlanta

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#16 » by Skyhawk1 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:06 pm

Teague will probably never look better than he did last year. I just think Teague plays in spurts, that's why we are so inconsistent within games. He lacks the physicality and most important the mind toughness to be great. Some games he attacks, some he just walks around the perimeter. Teague is a good PG, he's just not top 10, elite type. Dennis plays more fearless, plays better D and is more active on both ends. It's been said here that there isn't much difference in production between the 2 of them. Given Teague's time and opportunity as a staring PG, he should be way ahead of Dennis.
GO HAWKS.
Rip2137
Analyst
Posts: 3,317
And1: 228
Joined: Jun 24, 2006

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#17 » by Rip2137 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:26 pm

Jamal...do you not understand how any of this works? You get, like..math, right?

If the last 6 games account for 20% of what you are touting then yes, this is about Dennis's last 6 games because prior to that, the net +/- was negligible. You simply could not have made this thread prior to 6 games ago because the THE ENTIRE YEAR up to that point, it wasn't true.

Also, the lineups that have been most successful this year have not featured Paul Millsap.

As a matter of fact, the 3rd best lineup statistically this FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON has been Shelvin Mack, Thabo Sefalosha, Mike Muscala, Mike Scott and Justin Holiday.

Tied for best lineup of the year? Mack/Holiday/Hardaway/Scott/Patterson.

Are the Hawks better with Mike Scott at PF? Are the Hawks better at with Mike Muscala at Center? Are the Hawks better with Shelvin Mack at point guard?

OR were those points gained through blowout wins/losses where the other team had conceded and it was garbage time.
Rip2137
Analyst
Posts: 3,317
And1: 228
Joined: Jun 24, 2006

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#18 » by Rip2137 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:29 pm

PandaKidd wrote:Again, the answer isnt at PG, putting DS in isnt going to send us on a 19 game winning streak. THe differences between Teague and DS are negligible. They both do different things well, and they both have serious flaws.


When Teague or Dennis are on they help the team. Bad Dennis hurts the team, bad Teague kind of just does not anything.

They hurt the team differently. Thing is, shot not falling Dennis is basically useless most nights. Shot not falling Teague has at least shown the ability to still run the offense. Once Schroder can do that on his off nights, I would call the difference negligible.
User avatar
Jamaaliver
Forum Mod - Hawks
Forum Mod - Hawks
Posts: 45,159
And1: 17,179
Joined: Sep 22, 2005
Location: Officially a citizen of the World...
Contact:
     

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#19 » by Jamaaliver » Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:50 pm

Rip2137 wrote:Jamal...do you not understand how any of this works? You get, like...math, right?

If the last 6 games account for 20% of what you are touting then yes, this is about Dennis's last 6 games because prior to that, the net +/- was negligible. You simply could not have made this thread prior to 6 games ago because the THE ENTIRE YEAR up to that point, it wasn't true.


:-?

Yes. I get math, RIP. AND sarcasm.

The benefit of math is that NO 6 game period is greater than any other 6 game stretch. The recent 20% is NOT greater than the previous 80%. That's the point. The numbers today are an accumulation.

Dennis's last 6 games off the bench have been good. They have effected his numbers positively.

In Nov, Dennis started 6 games and was awful. They effected his numbers negatively.

You're operating under the pretense that the last 6 games carry more weight than any other 6 game stretch this season.

But they don't. Look, I have no doubt that Dennis's last 6 games have impacted his numbers. But I also believe that the previous 26 games had a pretty significant effect on his season numbers as well.

Everyone here agrees that Dennis's overall play this season has been less than stellar. But unbiased numbers encompassing EVERY GAME thus far indicates his presence on the court typically leads to an advantage over the opposition.

For the season

FOR THE SEASON

FOR THE SEASON

THIS INCLUDES THE LAST 6 GAME WHEN DS PLAYED WELL. This includes the first six games when Dennis played poorly. This includes the middle 6 games when Dennis played terribly.

That's how math works. The last 6 games mean no more and no less than the previous 6 games played. or the first 6 games played...or the 2nd six games played....or the 3rd six games played.

And all this misses the point, that with Teague on the court for a much larger sample size than DS (or Mack), the Hawks have been outscored by their opponents. And with DS on the court for a significant (though admittedly smaller sample size), the Hawks have been much better than their opponents.
User avatar
Jamaaliver
Forum Mod - Hawks
Forum Mod - Hawks
Posts: 45,159
And1: 17,179
Joined: Sep 22, 2005
Location: Officially a citizen of the World...
Contact:
     

Re: Are Hawks Better with Dennis at PG? 

Post#20 » by Jamaaliver » Mon Dec 28, 2015 10:45 pm

Rip2137 wrote:When Teague or Dennis are on they help the team. Bad Dennis hurts the team, bad Teague kind of just does not anything.

They hurt the team differently. Thing is, shot not falling Dennis is basically useless most nights. Shot not falling Teague has at least shown the ability to still run the offense. Once Schroder can do that on his off nights, I would call the difference negligible.


Every bit of this is accurate and reasonable. Dennis does still have a bit to learn about running an offense when he isn't scoring. Something Teague did have to learn, but also had the benefit of watching vets like Kirk Hinrich and Mike Bibby do when he was Dennis's age.




Side note: Turns out we can just look up the net rating for players through Dec 14th over on NBA.com.

Schroder's NET rating through Dec 14 (Before the 6 game streak) was +2.8.
Teague's NET rating through Dec 14 (Before the 6 game streak) was -2.2.

Clearly Schroeder's numbers have been inflated by his recent play. But even before that, Teague's on-court presence (ACCORDING TO THIS METRIC) was a negative and at least 5 points behind Dennis's. Despite his erratic/disappointing/awful play.

So do we attribute this solely to the ankle injury, the struggles of the entire team? Is 1/3 of an NBA season too small of a sample size?

Return to Atlanta Hawks