The AL Horford Dilemma

[Jamaaliver]

Local and National sports writers have begun openly debating the pros and cons of keeping/losing AL.

This is intended to be a thread specifically for that topic:

Al Horford occupies the same space that Joe Johnson did in 2010: He’s essential to everything the Hawks do, but there’s no guarantee that keeping him will make them any better — or even as good...

In July 2010, the Hawks re-upped Johnson for $119 million over six seasons. It was immediately characterized as one of the worst NBA contracts ever. To keep Horford, the Hawks might have to pay $145 million over five seasons. When Johnson was re-signed, the plaint was, “How can you give that much money to a guy who’s not a superstar?” The same question applies now.

If he’s allowed to leave and no major free agent agrees to sign, the Hawks would take a giant step backward...If he stays, they still won’t be good enough — and in two years they’ll be trying to trade him.

Here

AL HORFORD DECISION ISN’T EASY

Some fans aren’t convinced Horford is worth the money and will [instead] hamstring them in the future. They might be right.

Others are concerned letting Horford leave will set this team back. They might be right, too.

I like Horford. He’s a solid player, a good leader and low maintenance. But he’s not a superstar. Paul Millsap gets an edge on Horford because he’s a more consistent scorer. Horford is a power forward playing center. But Millsap is a power forward. So the only way keeping both works is if the Hawks acquire a great scorer for small forward... Otherwise, Horford (or Millsap) have to go, because the Hawks need more size. Cleveland’s size destroyed them in the series, particularly on the offensive boards...if they give him a max deal, they better have a plan to fix everything else. And if they let him go or deal him in a sign-and-trade, well they better have a plan to replace him AND fix everything else.

But I’m guessing he is back.

HERE

[Jamaaliver]

Horford becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer and makes his first real foray into the business side of the NBA. One of the questions facing the Hawks is whether to give Horford a maximum contract. Based on a player with 7-9 years experience, they can offer him a five-year deal with annual increases of 7.5 percent of the first year’s salary. Another team can offer him a four-year deal with annual increases of 4.5 percent.

For his plans to improve his game, Horford said that while he has effectively added a 3-point shot to his repertoire, he would like to get better in the post.

AL's exact dollar figures on a Max Contract can be accessed Here

[mr_grabb]

The only issue that I have with possibly letting Horford walk is that I do not trust the Hawk's capacity to attract quality FA. They just won't come here. I fear that the only way to build a more talented squad is be spending big bucks when re-signing current players and sign quality, under the radar FA to affordable contracts (Carroll and Bazemore).

[Yungsta404]

I am already losing interest in the hawks because its the same story over and over again. If we sign AL to the max (most likely will), nothing is going to change. We will literally have to wait until guys start retiring before we will be forced to get a new look front court that is capable of being an average rebounding team.

[PandaKidd]

Good sign?



Taken today, Bud having lunch with Al

[DirtybirdGA]

I'd rather lose him if he's back at center again... doesn't even play back up 4 like he used to, seldom if so.

[jayu70]

I don't like the premise of comparing Al and Joe for this reason - during the Joe era the cap bare nudged so the Hawks were hamstrung. I think i read that the cap jumped approx $7 mil total over the years we had Joe. The cap is jumping by $17 mil in just one year.
Paying Al the max will not limit the team from adding addt'l players. His cap hold is $18.

Think about this hypothetical - we let Al leave and sign Festuz Ezeli. How much are you paying him. If
the reports are true of him possibly getting $16 mil
It only gives us an additional $2 mil on savings to sign players from Al's caphold.

I prefer not to pay Al a 5yr/max, but it's more likely to happen than not.
So if thats a given what are the options for improving the team now and going forward. We have to upgrade the SG and SF positions AND the bench.

[jayu70]

Anyone heard the Zach Klein interview on 92.9 The Game? Said the Hawks want/prefer/will propose a 1+1 max deal to Al.
Edit: They will also make a pitch to Durant.

[HMFFL]

We won't allow our valuable pieces to walk so easily.
I expect us to offer Horford the max so the ball will be in his court to make a decision on. If he signs it, so be it, and he eventually will have his jersey retired, if he plays out the contract. Otherwise, we possibly trade him down the line, or he plays out his contract, and begins to chase a ring as he nears 38 years old.

[Skyhawk1]

He's got to go.

[ATL Boy]

This is slightly off topic but I feel like his jersey should be retired even if he's already played his last game as a Hawk. The standard has been set with Mutombo's jersey being retired (just a glorified PR move I know, but there is no way what he did here was worthy of jersey retirement IMO).

The same absolutely goes for Joe Johnson (though, I would've wanted his retired either way).

[simon24]

I don't like the premise of comparing Al and Joe for this reason - during the Joe era the cap bare nudged so the Hawks were hamstrung. I think i read that the cap jumped approx $7 mil total over the years we had Joe. The cap is jumping by $17 mil in just one year.
Paying Al the max will not limit the team from adding addt'l players. His cap hold is $18.

Think about this hypothetical - we let Al leave and sign Festuz Ezeli. How much are you paying him. If
the reports are true of him possibly getting $16 mil
It only gives us an additional $2 mil on savings to sign players from Al's caphold.

I prefer not to pay Al a 5yr/max, but it's more likely to happen than not.
So if thats a given what are the options for improving the team now and going forward. We have to upgrade the SG and SF positions AND the bench.

Ezeli got knee problems

[simon24]

Anyone heard the Zach Klein interview on 92.9 The Game? Said the Hawks want/prefer/will propose a 1+1 max deal to Al.
Edit: They will also make a pitch to Durant.

I didn't but I wish I did. That would be a win for Al and the Hawks.

Al would get max money next season and be eligible for the super max (30 percent of the cap) in 2017 since he'd be in the league for 10 years.

Hawks would keep their best option at C. Would 't have long term tied into him or anybody on the roster. Everybody but Tavares would be FAs in summer '17.

[PandaKidd]

I contemplated that, Al could sign a 1+1 deal and wait it out, he and Millsap get 1 more go and they can see what they can do in a year. Theyd both become FAs together.

Id love to see about getting Dwight Howard or Mozgov in here. D12 will want to be a starter, so theres no way you can have PM/AH/D12 at the same time. I would love to see AH at the 4 and D12 at the 5. Flip PM for a wing player.

wishful thinking im guessing.

Would AL, who HAS had 2 brutal injuries , risk his health for a year? Something tells me he will take the max in terms of years. This is his BIG BIG payday. He wont get another one.

[Jamaaliver]

To hear Horford reiterate how much he loves ATL -- during the playoffs, following the playoffs -- I do believe sticking around is of great importance.

I suspect, given that fact and the lackluster performance he put forth this year, he'd accept less annual salary over longer years to stay here.

Would AL, who HAS had 2 brutal injuries , risk his health for a year? Something tells me he will take the max in terms of years. This is his BIG BIG payday. He wont get another one.

BINGO!!! Because of this fact, I can't see him taking a short term deal over the long term security he could get elsewhere for twice as much guaranteed money.

[PandaKidd]

I think he wants to stay based on what ive heard, and i hear the "continuity" stuff coming from Bud, he had lunch with him immediately following that series loss. I just get the feeling they will work it out, whatever that is. 4 Years with a player option, 3 years with a player option, whatever.

[Jamaaliver]

I just get the feeling they will work it out, whatever that is. 4 Years with a player option, 3 years with a player option, whatever.

I like where your head's at!!!

Five year contract, $130 million

Player Option in Year 3.

Team Option in Year 5.

[ATL Boy]

I just get the feeling they will work it out, whatever that is. 4 Years with a player option, 3 years with a player option, whatever.

I like where your head's at!!!

Five year contract, $130 million

Player Option in Year 3.

Team Option in Year 5.

Would Al go for any contract that involves a team option? Especially with the number of suitors he's bound to have this summer. Max players in their late 20s almost never accept a deal with a team option.


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[PandaKidd]

No i think it will all be Player option. he gets financial security and he gets an opt out in year 3 to go somewhere else in his "prime". Or 3+1 etc.

I think the main thing is controlling your destiny. Now what we dont know is if someone offers him 4 years 90 million (whatever that max is) and we offer him 5 years 130million , option in year 4 or something? not sure how that works out.

I think as long as we offer the extra year, even if its a PO hell stay. Plus he becomes trade bait next 2 years so thats our leverage.

[Hawk Eye]

I don't see many S&T's (if any) happening this season due to the massive cap spike. Sign and trades are only useful for teams who are over the cap because it allows them to ship out some of their own players in order to have the cap space to sign the guy they are pursuing (in this case Horford). Since every team in the league is going to have oodles of cap space there really isn't any reason for them to execute a S&T for Horford's services. They can just sign him outright to a max without losing any other players.