Absurdly early 2018 NBA Draft Thread

[Jamaaliver]

Since we know our goal is to snag a top player in next year's draft, this will be a place to collect and converse regarding next year's draftees.

Spoiler:

[Jamaaliver]

The Top Prospect at Every Position in 2018 NBA Draft Class

Shooting Guard: Luka Doncic (Slovenia, 1999)
Projected draft range: Top five
Stat predictions: 10.0 points, 4.5 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 46.0% FG, 35.0% 3PT

Labeling Luka Doncic isn't necessary, given his unique game and rare versatility, though it would make sense to play him between a faster point guard and athletic wing.

Either way, he's a special player with an unteachable feel for the game and skills that can pick apart defenses.

Doncic compensates for lack of explosion with tight ball-handling, crafty maneuvers and basketball instincts. A masterful pick-and-roll facilitator, he creates easy shots for teammates by freezing defenders with change of speed before threading the needle or lofting a touch pass into a tight window.

Between EuroLeague, Spanish ACB and Spanish Cup, Doncic also made 76 threes through 80 games and shot 80.8 percent from the line—encouraging shooting numbers for his age. He's far more well-rounded than Miami's Lonnie Walker, our next-best 2.

Doncic just played a key role for Real Madrid in its EuroLeague Final Four run, which went through stiffer competition than any top NCAA prospect has seen. He could wind up more prepared for his NBA rookie year than any guard in the 2018 field.

Bleacher Report

Small Forward: Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri, Freshman)
Projected draft range: No. 1 overall
Stat predictions: 20.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 50.0% FG, 36% 3PT

Michael Porter's size and skill set suggest he's designed for the NBA 3, though in today's position-less league, he should be able to play anywhere from the 2 to the 4.

He's the type of offensive prospect who lottery teams will view as a future top option to feature and build around. Porter is a scorer, already equipped with pro-level moves into jumpers and a money three-point shot.

He separates and distinguishes himself from Miles Bridges, our No. 2 small/combo forward, with tighter handles, advanced perimeter shot-creating and off-the-dribble shooting.

It couldn't have looked easier for him than it did last summer at the FIBA Americas U-18 Championship, where he scored 30.1 points per 40 minutes on 53.3 percent shooting. Even as a freshman, Porter should be one of college basketball's top players and the early favorite to go first in the 2018 draft.

Center: DeAndre Ayton (Arizona, Freshman)
Projected draft range: Top five

Stat prediction: 13.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 55.0% FG

NBA teams will look at DeAndre Ayton as their potential two-way anchor of the future.

He's been atop or near No. 1 on recruiting rankings since early high school, so scouts are already quite familiar.

Ayton's sales pitch starts with his 243-pound, grown-man body that features a 7'5 ½" wingspan and 9'3" reach. He's built for double-doubles and blocked shots.

Powerful, long and athletic, he's also more skilled than Mohamed Bamba, our No. 2 center and another possible top-five pick. Ayton can go to work with his back to the basket but also step out and knock down threes with a comfortable, projectable shooting stroke.

He'll make an impact right away based off his physical presence and bounce inside. But a developing jump shot takes his game to a new level and puts him in the mix at No. 1 overall.

[jayu70]

I will have to rely on the expertise of others. I have no time anymore to watch college bball.

What position should we draft?

[Jamaaliver]

I'm hoping for a Center!!!

(But it sounds like I'm in the minority.)

[Spud2nique]

Personally, to me there are 5 guys that could be stars..IN ORDER FOR US...I'd go..

1.Doncic
2. Porter jr
3. Ayton
4. Bamba
5. Bridges

We have to land a top 5 pick...please

Ps I'm gonna catch hell for putting Porter 2nd but I really believe he's #2 in this draft.

[atlantabbq99]

2018 is loaded with centers.

There also might be a Devin Booker type of player in the middle round. We will just have to wait and see who turns out to be the best shooter next year

[azuresou1]

Copying what I said on reddit:

I love Luka Doncic. He's not explosive but that kid is just SO smooth and polished. He reminds me of a Joe Johnson/Gordon Hayward hybrid where he could just about do everything offensively at an above-average level.My biggest knock on him is that his ceiling isn't much higher than his floor - I see him as being a perennial All-Star, but never All-NBA caliber.

I don't like Michael Porter Jr. - 6'10 forwards who can shoot don't grow on trees, but he looks like he's effective primarily because he towers over 6'3 high school wings and 6'5 centers. He's not explosive, his handle is extremely basic, and his shot looks slow. Explain to me how he's going to be an effective on-ball shot maker or creator against NBA caliber players? I don't see it. I think he's Marvin Williams 2.0.

Bamba/Ayton both strike me as having extremely high bust potential. The raw tools are there but I don't know if they fundamentally have good basketball IQ.

I don't know jack about Bagley.

[Jamaaliver]

I love Luka Doncic. He's not explosive but that kid is just SO smooth and polished. He reminds me of a Joe Johnson/Gordon Hayward hybrid where he could just about do everything offensively at an above-average level...

Yeah, Doncic really intrigues me, as well. I wonder if he's best suited at SG or PG. Or if he can mesh well with Dennis. But he seems like a solid contributor and could really thrive in the type of system Budenholzer wants to play. (Are we still drafting guys who fit Bud's system? Are we sure he's here long term?)



Ayton does indeed have some bust potential to him. Though, I hear some pretty high praise of his abilities on both ends of the court. His skillset has been compared favorably to David Robinson's.

[kg01]

Copying what I said on reddit:

I love Luka Doncic. He's not explosive but that kid is just SO smooth and polished. He reminds me of a Joe Johnson/Gordon Hayward hybrid where he could just about do everything offensively at an above-average level.My biggest knock on him is that his ceiling isn't much higher than his floor - I see him as being a perennial All-Star, but never All-NBA caliber.

I don't like Michael Porter Jr. - 6'10 forwards who can shoot don't grow on trees, but he looks like he's effective primarily because he towers over 6'3 high school wings and 6'5 centers. He's not explosive, his handle is extremely basic, and his shot looks slow. Explain to me how he's going to be an effective on-ball shot maker or creator against NBA caliber players? I don't see it. I think he's Marvin Williams 2.0.

Bamba/Ayton both strike me as having extremely high bust potential. The raw tools are there but I don't know if they fundamentally have good basketball IQ.

I don't know jack about Bagley.

I don't think you're wrong on Porter. Another guy who looks Kobe-esque but is probably just another Wiggins type who can put up nimbers but not likely impact winning.

Also, w.r.t. the '18 draft talk, I don't think we should spend a lot of time looking at premium lotto guys. We won't be swimming in those waters. JMHO

And I'm getting a neck cramp from SMH at you @jamaaliver and your crush on these big men. It's not the mid-90's, man. Look, just root for us to sign Nerlens. He's these '18 guys' ceiling anyway.

[Jamaaliver]

1) I'm STUBBORN AND OLD!!!

2) I still believe Cavs, Celtics and Warriors are all still most susceptible to a talented, top big man. (Sun Tzu says, attack your enemy where they are the weakest.)

Between A Davis, KAT, Joel Embiid and this new generation of top Centers capable of playing out to the three point line, I think we'll see a shift in the next 5-10 years back to focusing on the 5 spot.

[kg01]

1) I'm STUBBORN AND OLD!!!

2) I still believe Cavs, Celtics and Warriors are all still most susceptible to a talented, top big man. (Sun Tzu says, attack your enemy where they are the weakest.)

Between A Davis, KAT, Joel Embiid and this new generation of top Centers capable of playing out to the three point line, I think we'll see a shift in the next 5-10 years back to focusing on the 5 spot.

As I get older I start to learn that 'stubborn' and 'old' are synonyms.

Your statement #2 is correct but only if you're talking about a Shaq-level big. You aren't. Shiii, these new dudes aren't even on prime-Dwight's level.

Wake me up when any of them dudes win a playoff game, let alone a series, let alone 3 series ... you get my point. I'm changing my name to Rip Van Winkg01 it seems.

[Spud2nique]

1) I'm STUBBORN AND OLD!!!

2) I still believe Cavs, Celtics and Warriors are all still most susceptible to a talented, top big man. (Sun Tzu says, attack your enemy where they are the weakest.)

Between A Davis, KAT, Joel Embiid and this new generation of top Centers capable of playing out to the three point line, I think we'll see a shift in the next 5-10 years back to focusing on the 5 spot.

I agree with this. The NBA will revert back to the big man game, but like you said it's gonna take 5-10 years. It's like a fashion trend, it always comes back! And no @ kg, it's not ok to wear the entire jean outfit, you brought back the pants and jacket, the backpack is too much, honestly even in the sac de cul

[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

Marvin Bagley has announced he will attend Duke.

Bagley is the top player in the incoming class of 2018.

RealGM

[kg01]

1) I'm STUBBORN AND OLD!!!

2) I still believe Cavs, Celtics and Warriors are all still most susceptible to a talented, top big man. (Sun Tzu says, attack your enemy where they are the weakest.)

Between A Davis, KAT, Joel Embiid and this new generation of top Centers capable of playing out to the three point line, I think we'll see a shift in the next 5-10 years back to focusing on the 5 spot.

I agree with this. The NBA will revert back to the big man game, but like you said it's gonna take 5-10 years. It's like a fashion trend, it always comes back! And no @ kg, it's not ok to wear the entire jean outfit, you brought back the pants and jacket, the backpack is too much, honestly even in the sac de cul

The Canadian tuxedo (is that offensive?) knocks 'em dead in the 'sac, brah.

This conversation reminds me of one I had with my heat-fan BIL who tried to convince me that Shaq would not (I repeat, not) dominate in today's NBA. I was flabbergasted. He basically said that, even tho Shaq would score at will, the man he's guarding would bombs-away from 3. Said STTE that, if Shaq's man scored 18 or so from 3, it would effectively negate Shaq's impact. Blew my mind. As if they'd shoot the same percentage from 3 as he would via dunks. As if Shaq wouldn't foul like 3 guys out by halftime. As if being in the penalty would have no impact on the other team.

Long story long, I'm not by heat-fan BIL. I get that a dominate crop of bigs could shift the focus. My issue is I don't consider any of the current "bigs" being good enough to start that ball rolling.

[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Ayton has elite physical tools, standing 7 feet tall with a 7-foot-5.5 wingspan and an excellent frame. He also is fairly skilled offensively, showing potential as a finisher and jump-shooter. NBA scouts question his motor and defensive awareness, things they'll be monitoring closely at Arizona.

[MaceCase]

1) I'm STUBBORN AND OLD!!!

2) I still believe Cavs, Celtics and Warriors are all still most susceptible to a talented, top big man. (Sun Tzu says, attack your enemy where they are the weakest.)

Between A Davis, KAT, Joel Embiid and this new generation of top Centers capable of playing out to the three point line, I think we'll see a shift in the next 5-10 years back to focusing on the 5 spot.

I agree with this. The NBA will revert back to the big man game, but like you said it's gonna take 5-10 years. It's like a fashion trend, it always comes back! And no @ kg, it's not ok to wear the entire jean outfit, you brought back the pants and jacket, the backpack is too much, honestly even in the sac de cul

The Canadian tuxedo (is that offensive?) knocks 'em dead in the 'sac, brah.

This conversation reminds me of one I had with my heat-fan BIL who tried to convince me that Shaq would not (I repeat, not) dominate in today's NBA. I was flabbergasted. He basically said that, even tho Shaq would score at will, the man he's guarding would bombs-away from 3. Said STTE that, if Shaq's man scored 18 or so from 3, it would effectively negate Shaq's impact. Blew my mind. As if they'd shoot the same percentage from 3 as he would via dunks. As if Shaq wouldn't foul like 3 guys out by halftime. As if being in the penalty would have no impact on the other team.

Long story long, I'm not by heat-fan BIL. I get that a dominate crop of bigs could shift the focus. My issue is I don't consider any of the current "bigs" being good enough to start that ball rolling.

I've had this discussion with people before and their assumption is always based on prime plodding Shaq who was pushing 380lbs, something he did or allowed because he was just so physically dominant. If young Shaq came into this league though he would have stayed closer to his 300lb, runs like a gazelle, dribbling the ball fullcourt, crossing over other bigs from the faceup while still dunking everything in sight self. We saw a similar transformation with Duncan constantly losing weight over the last 5-8 years of his career after the predominant sentiment over the first 10 years of his career was for big men to always get bigger and stronger.

So your BIL is only somewhat right if he only incorporated the Shaq we knew's FG% against a shooting big but comically wrong once he failed to incorporate Shaq's passing ability, screening, and foul drawing or assume that he'd absolutely make zero adjustments or tweaks to his game to fit today's NBA. But to your larger point, no, there's not a single big in the league or on the horizon that matches Shaq's level of physical dominance and the analytics will not change on post ups being bad shot options making any big man that can't perform to the skill level of a guard/wing or at the minimum anchor a defense moot.

[kg01]

I agree with this. The NBA will revert back to the big man game, but like you said it's gonna take 5-10 years. It's like a fashion trend, it always comes back! And no @ kg, it's not ok to wear the entire jean outfit, you brought back the pants and jacket, the backpack is too much, honestly even in the sac de cul

The Canadian tuxedo (is that offensive?) knocks 'em dead in the 'sac, brah.

This conversation reminds me of one I had with my heat-fan BIL who tried to convince me that Shaq would not (I repeat, not) dominate in today's NBA. I was flabbergasted. He basically said that, even tho Shaq would score at will, the man he's guarding would bombs-away from 3. Said STTE that, if Shaq's man scored 18 or so from 3, it would effectively negate Shaq's impact. Blew my mind. As if they'd shoot the same percentage from 3 as he would via dunks. As if Shaq wouldn't foul like 3 guys out by halftime. As if being in the penalty would have no impact on the other team.

Long story long, I'm not by heat-fan BIL. I get that a dominate crop of bigs could shift the focus. My issue is I don't consider any of the current "bigs" being good enough to start that ball rolling.

I've had this discussion with people before and their assumption is always based on prime plodding Shaq who was pushing 380lbs, something he did or allowed because he was just so physically dominant. If young Shaq came into this league though he would have stayed closer to his 300lb, runs like a gazelle, dribbling the ball fullcourt, crossing over other bigs from the faceup while still dunking everything in sight self. We saw a similar transformation with Duncan constantly losing weight over the last 5-8 years of his career after the predominant sentiment over the first 10 years of his career was for big men to always get bigger and stronger.

So your BIL is only somewhat right if he only incorporated the Shaq we knew's FG% against a shooting big but comically wrong once he failed to incorporate Shaq's passing ability, screening, and foul drawing or assume that he'd absolutely make zero adjustments or tweaks to his game to fit today's NBA. But to your larger point, no, there's not a single big in the league or on the horizon that matches Shaq's level of physical dominance and the analytics will not change on post ups being bad shot options making any big man that can't perform to the skill level of a guard/wing or at the minimum anchor a defense moot.

I read all them words but all I heard was "Yeah you right again, cagey."

You're welcome.

[Spud2nique]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Ayton has elite physical tools, standing 7 feet tall with a 7-foot-5.5 wingspan and an excellent frame. He also is fairly skilled offensively, showing potential as a finisher and jump-shooter. NBA scouts question his motor and defensive awareness, things they'll be monitoring closely at Arizona.

Porter over Bagley? Hell no...if we are lucky enough to get the 1st pick it's Bagley hands down. If we are San Antonio east, then this is 1997 and this is our Duncan, ya I said it. This is probably the best big man prospect in a long time. The real deal. If we picked Porter over Bagley, it would be like Marvin over cp3....it's a no brainer..who did this mock? Lol

[Jamaaliver]

Michael Porter, Marvin Bagley, DeAndre Ayton and Luka Doncic comprise the top-4 of the first mock draft from Jonathan Givony of ESPN for 2018.

Porter is a multi-talented, highly athletic combo forward.

Bagley reclassified to the incoming freshman class of 2017 and will attend Duke.

Doncic has been widely considered a potential top overall pick but scouts have concerns on whether he is athletic enough to defend his position as well as create his own shot.

1. Michael Porter
2. Marvin Bagley
3. DeAndre Ayton
4. Luka Doncic
5. Robert Williams
6. Miles Bridges
7. Mohamed Bamba
8. Collin Sexton
9. Jaren Jackson
10. Wendell Carter

RealGM Wiretap


Porter strikes me as a poor man's Durant.

Doncic seems like a Schlenk/Budenholzer type of player. But has obvious limitations as listed above. (Can he take over a game?)

Ayton has elite skills, but poor work ethic.

[kg01]

We need to have a (way too)early 2018 free agency thread. I think that's where we'll make our hay. I'll let one of you brainiacs start the thread though. That way, if it bombs, I'll just point 'n laugh from the sidelines.

On topic, w.r.t. '18 (and beyond) draftees, one thing I never want to hear is "so-and-so would be a star in our system". I'm done with them dudes. I want us to get guys who're stars regardless of system. Just my $0.03.