My assessment on all the topic prospects (+ Young)

[azuresou1]

Here's my assessment for the consensus top 7, and how I think they'd fit with the Hawks' plans:

AYTON is KAT 2.0, and the clear #1 in my mind, even with his lack of defensive instincts. With his size, athleticism, and offensive game, he can do everything that KAT does, and he fits in well offensively with John Collins, who I do see as a legitimate long term piece. Him and JC in particular can both function as roll guys AND could develop into competent enough outside shooters that we don't have any spacing issues. Not sure I feel great about the defensive fit though - that's very susceptible to wing penetration. However, he's the ONLY player I see with superstar carry potential.

JJJ is my #2a, and is a unique prospect. I project his upside as a Draymond/Bosh hybrid - a fluid and mobile 6'11 defender who can guard 2-5 with elite rim protection, and also give you 13-16 points a game with some spacing. In many ways I think he is the perfect modern NBA 5 man. Obviously he doesn't have the offensive game of Bosh or Dray's floor vision, but I think that is an All-NBA upside even if it doesn't fit the classic mold of a get-buckets superstar. Worth noting he's STILL 18.

He is probably the best smoothest fit for us, and he'd really anchor the defense. That extra defensive presence will allow JC to trust the rotations more, and help off his man.

DONCIC is my #2b, and his floor is higher than just about anyone I've seen in recent years. My concern is that his ceiling might not be all that much higher than his floor. My NBA comp for him is Joe Johnson/Gordon Hayward - a really good bigger guard who can do some ball handling, distribute the ball, and score some buckets, but would really be best as a second option on all those dimensions. I would be surprised if he doesn't make at least 4 ASGs in his career, but I'd also be surprised if he ever makes it higher than All-NBA Third.

I'm not sure how well he fits with us actually. On court, I think he frees up TP to be more of a shooter/slasher, but he should not be a primary ballhandler, and even if we don't trade Dennis that's not a great fit either. Also in terms of roster construct, I think he is good enough that he wins us games next season, which anti-Processes us.

BAMBA is my #4. He has Gobert size with Capela fluidity. I think you know exactly what you are going to get with him, and for the Hawks he could be a core piece in an extended rebuild.

BAGLEY is my #5. Someone else on Reddit said it best - he looks like a good stats bad team type of guy, not because he's a bad player, but because he's too bad at defense to play the 5, and not good enough at shooting to play the 4 these days. I think he's another version of Julius Randle, who has done jack for the Lakers in terms of the rebuild, and is now going to be an RFA already.

PORTER screams bust to me - he's a big wing who contributes nothing else other than scoring which I'm not frankly sure will translate to the pros given how bad his handle is. I see a bigger Rudy Gay, which memes aside is not a core building block.

YOUNG is Mike Bibby 2.0.

As you can see, I view Ayton/JJJ/Doncic as significantly better than the rest of the draft, so it's great that we got the 3rd pick.

[MaceCase]

I have a natural aversion to JJJ because I see elite role player as his ceiling more than potential star. However, putting my knee jerk emotions aside, once I reconcile with the fact that this will be a multi-year rebuild he’s a strong piece to have particularly with Collins. A wing scorer can be targeted in later drafts and/or free agency/trade but for now JJJ looks like someone who will be a key contributor once a core comes to fruition, just not as the centerpiece.

[Ball4life32]

Bagley shot 39% from 3. His FT % is a little low but I don’t believe he’s a bad shooter.

I think Young’s upside is higher than Bibby. Im not as high on Doncic or JJJ. And it sounds like we prefer Bagley/Young.

[Spud2nique]

OP’s bottom 3 are actually my top 3 for now.

Bagley is by no means Randle. I see him as much more mobile with much more speed and athleticism that Julius. I see him as more of an aggressive Bosh. Let’s face it. He’s dominated every level of basketball and has been a household name since 2014. He has star written all over him.

Trae Young is no Bibby in my mind. He is a much much better passer with amazing court vision. I honestly see some passes that he makes which are reminiscent of Rajon Rondo and Nash. The angles are unbelievable. He’s added 20 pounds of muscle over the last couple of months. He has a big heart and he’s not going to be your average player in the nba, he’s going to be great and players are going to want to play with him.

Porter is as smooth as they come. He’s a guy that can post you up, face up and score as well as nail the 3 in your face in a transition situation. He’s going to average 20+ points per for his career. Star potential is big.

[Jamaaliver]

But Wendell Carter, tho...

He's the next AL Horford.

[dms269]

But Wendell Carter, tho...

He's the next AL Horford.

In that he lets his parent speak for him?

[dms269]

I don't understand the love with JJJ. So drafting 3rd overall and we get a guy who should be the 4th or 5th bets player on a team.

Eventually we are going to need players who can score buckets as our top 2 young guys currently are not that.

[Jamaaliver]

Here's my assessment for the consensus top 7, and how I think they'd fit with the Hawks' plans:

Mike,

You got any favorite prospects from later in the draft? Guys we should be targeting at #19 or #30?



I like Lonnie Walker, based on his skillset -- not actual play or efficiency. The kid has the size, tools to be effective at SG with no real holes. But he doesn't know how to play basketball yet...


Khyri Thomas looks like a 10 year starter due to defense and three-point shooting.


Aaron Holiday is a solid 2-way player with the potential to put up Jeff Teague-level production. His biggest knock is his size. He'll get exploited on switches non-stop.


Landry Shamet is a smart combo guard with above avg vision and elite 3-pt shooting. He'd be a great pickup after #25.



Trevon Duval has some serious flaws, but seems a worthwhile project. If he can get develop into even a decent shooter, 3+ years from now he could be as productive as Collin Sexton.


Update: I also think Bruce Brown from Miami is a better shooting Marcus Smart and Tony Carr will be a smooth scorer off the bench with limited upside.

[Jamaaliver]

I don't understand the love with JJJ. So drafting 3rd overall and we get a guy who should be the 4th or 5th bets player on a team.

Eventually we are going to need players who can score buckets as our top 2 young guys currently are not that.

JJJ concerns me be cause I've seen him simply NOT effect too many basketball games.

I can live with a bad game from a young player. It happens. But for entire stretches, halves and games -- JJJ had 0 effect on the outcome. Few rebounds, no scoring and limited defensive effect.

I see Serge Ibaka...maybe Myles Turner. Neither of whom is worthy of a top-3 pick.

[dms269]

I don't understand the love with JJJ. So drafting 3rd overall and we get a guy who should be the 4th or 5th bets player on a team.

Eventually we are going to need players who can score buckets as our top 2 young guys currently are not that.

JJJ concerns me be cause I've seen him simply NOT effect too many basketball games.

I can live with a bad game form a young player. It happens. But for entire stretches, halves and games -- JJJ had 0 effect on the outcome. Few rebounds, no scoring and limited defensive effect.

I see Serge Ibaka...maybe Myles Turner. Neither of whom is worthy of a top-3 pick.

No one is mentioning the mpg thing either, which is a result of him fouling out. So a defensive big who is always in foul trouble doesn't bode well for us since Collins does that very well.

[kg01]

I can see the concern with Porter based on his Mizzou games. I think we saw a really diminished version of him. At his best, he was the top prospect in the country.

Someone's gotta convince me JJJ isn't just 2018 version of Noah Vonleh, Stromile Swift.

Someone's gotta convince me Young isn't Trey Burke. Different games but tiny guards, dominated NCAA, skruggled in the league once the lack of size was highlighted.

Totally agree with the Bagley comments. Big numbers, questionable impact on winning.

Doncic is white Evan Turner. #EZPassLane

If PHX passes on Ayton, they'll regret it. I think his defensive deficiencies are due, in large part, to never having been coached.

Ayton, Bamba, Porter .... boom.

[MaceCase]

I don't understand the love with JJJ. So drafting 3rd overall and we get a guy who should be the 4th or 5th bets player on a team.

Eventually we are going to need players who can score buckets as our top 2 young guys currently are not that.

Not so much love on my part but seeing fit. I understand the need for a top flight dynamic scorer but two of those will likely already be off the board and there's too many question marks on the other players effectively having enough of that ability to offset their shortcomings. Bagley looks like a taller Julius Randle, beyond the back injury Porter hasn't really demonstrated an ability to create offense, and Young has a lot of physical shortcomings.

In the interim I'm looking at it as Dennis' value can be increased having two athletic finishers that have demonstrated the ability to shoot. Maybe Pierce looks for Collins to be more of a primary scorer like he was in college which is helped by JJJ's ability to space the floor, and finally they look like a defensive duo that can be paired together. The team is near guaranteed to be in play for Reddish and Barret next season and whomever beyond that so I'm tempered from trying to get everything right in this one draft.

[dms269]

I am just irked taking a player who should be a team's 4th or 5th best player with the #3 overall pick. I don't think having two defensive players is going to all of a sudden make Dennis learn to play defense or develop a 3 point shot. Dennis has major short comings that are due to himself, not who he is playing with.

[kg01]

I am just irked taking a player who should be a team's 4th or 5th best player with the #3 overall pick. I don't think having two defensive players is going to all of a sudden make Dennis learn to play defense or develop a 3 point shot. Dennis has major short comings that are due to himself, not who he is playing with.

Agree with this totally. Reminds me that Tristan Thompson was a top 4 pick. He's carved a nice niche for himself. However, without Kyrie and obviously (to a greater extent) Lebron, he's nothing. A total wasted pick.

I'd rather have our alpha in place before we start filling out the roster, so to speak. If we do the reverse, we're right back to trying to build the Spurs .... only without David Robinson and Tim Duncan. Good luck with that.

[dms269]

It would remind me a lot of the Horford pick. A safe bet who can be a foundation piece, but someone who will never be a star.

[macd-gm]

Is "Mike Bibby 2.0" supposed to be a negative assessment or just an observation?

[Ball4life32]

I can see the concern with Porter based on his Mizzou games. I think we saw a really diminished version of him. At his best, he was the top prospect in the country.

Someone's gotta convince me JJJ isn't just 2018 version of Noah Vonleh, Stromile Swift.

Someone's gotta convince me Young isn't Trey Burke. Different games but tiny guards, dominated NCAA, skruggled in the league once the lack of size was highlighted.

Totally agree with the Bagley comments. Big numbers, questionable impact on winning.

Doncic is white Evan Turner. #EZPassLane

If PHX passes on Ayton, they'll regret it. I think his defensive deficiencies are due, in large part, to never having been coached.

Ayton, Bamba, Porter .... boom.

Young is a much better scorer and passer than Burke. What Young did as a freshman was historical while Burke had 2 good years at Michigan but certainly did nothing that made me thought he’d be a star in the NBA. Young’s got 2 inches on him as well.

[MaceCase]

I am just irked taking a player who should be a team's 4th or 5th best player with the #3 overall pick. I don't think having two defensive players is going to all of a sudden make Dennis learn to play defense or develop a 3 point shot. Dennis has major short comings that are due to himself, not who he is playing with.

Agree with this totally. Reminds me that Tristan Thompson was a top 4 pick. He's carved a nice niche for himself. However, without Kyrie and obviously (to a greater extent) Lebron, he's nothing. A total wasted pick.

I'd rather have our alpha in place before we start filling out the roster, so to speak. If we do the reverse, we're right back to trying to build the Spurs .... only without David Robinson and Tim Duncan. Good luck with that.

My main problem with the last statement is that it can lead you into forcing a square peg into a triangle hole. You end up deciding that the immediate need is an alpha in a draft position that only provides betas or worse, betas with alpha mentalities. I just see it as the Hawks are going to have MULTIPLE opportunities to fill out this roster so there's no urgency to go fishing for one type of player when there are other holes that can be filled immediately.

As to Dennis, he certainly could/should benefit from a big that can both guard the pick and roll and defend the rim as it will definitely hide his shortcomings. Additionally, he should become more efficient on his drives with a frontcourt that would demand more attention away from him. His shooting is on him but we've seen how Horford and Tristan helped hid a lot of another flawed guard's shortcomings. I'm not claiming that Dennis is going to become some foundational piece but it can certainly improve his trade stock if other GMs can see improved production and efficiency in a different situation that doesn't see Dwight sagging 15 feet off while Dennis is caught on a pick.

[kg01]

I can see the concern with Porter based on his Mizzou games. I think we saw a really diminished version of him. At his best, he was the top prospect in the country.

Someone's gotta convince me JJJ isn't just 2018 version of Noah Vonleh, Stromile Swift.

Someone's gotta convince me Young isn't Trey Burke. Different games but tiny guards, dominated NCAA, skruggled in the league once the lack of size was highlighted.

Totally agree with the Bagley comments. Big numbers, questionable impact on winning.

Doncic is white Evan Turner. #EZPassLane

If PHX passes on Ayton, they'll regret it. I think his defensive deficiencies are due, in large part, to never having been coached.

Ayton, Bamba, Porter .... boom.

Young is a much better scorer and passer than Burke. What Young did as a freshman was historical while Burke had 2 good years at Michigan but certainly did nothing that made me thought he’d be a star in the NBA. Young’s got 2 inches on him as well.

I contend that there are a lot of players who could come close to what Young did when given an ultra-green light. That doesn't diminish what he did, as he certainly played at a high level. But I'm not all ga-ga over his nimbers.

At the end of the day, he's small, lacks length and girth. Curry (when he was drafted), by comparison, dwarfs Young so I won't ever suggest it's automatic that Young will be close to that guy. I expect him to be Seth Curry, if anything.

[macd-gm]

I can see the concern with Porter based on his Mizzou games. I think we saw a really diminished version of him. At his best, he was the top prospect in the country.

Someone's gotta convince me JJJ isn't just 2018 version of Noah Vonleh, Stromile Swift.

Someone's gotta convince me Young isn't Trey Burke. Different games but tiny guards, dominated NCAA, skruggled in the league once the lack of size was highlighted.

Totally agree with the Bagley comments. Big numbers, questionable impact on winning.

Doncic is white Evan Turner. #EZPassLane

If PHX passes on Ayton, they'll regret it. I think his defensive deficiencies are due, in large part, to never having been coached.

Ayton, Bamba, Porter .... boom.

Young is a much better scorer and passer than Burke. What Young did as a freshman was historical while Burke had 2 good years at Michigan but certainly did nothing that made me thought he’d be a star in the NBA. Young’s got 2 inches on him as well.

I contend that there are a lot of players who could come close to what Young did when given an ultra-green light. That doesn't diminish what he did, as he certainly played at a high level. But I'm not all ga-ga over his nimbers.

At the end of the day, he's small, lacks length and girth. Curry (when he was drafted), by comparison, dwarfs Young so I won't ever suggest it's automatic that Young will be close to that guy. I expect him to be Seth Curry, if anything.

When you say 'dwarfs' what do you mean? All their measurements: height, wingspan, standing reach are within an inch of each other. Their weights are within 3 pounds. They couldn't be much more similar in size.

The OK games I watched I was pretty amazed. The guy could have been finishing with 14 assists instead of 9 if the other players weren't so god awful. He's just the best player on the court and if he was 6'4" / 200 he'd be the runaway #1 pick without a doubt.

He may struggle as first. He needs a coach with a medium leash. Short leash or no leash will be a disaster for him.