2018-19 Atlanta Hawks Season Wins Prediction Thread

[Roy Tarpley]

Although the roster is still subject to change, I think it's close enough to ready that we can stop the arm-chair playmaking and weekend warrior jousting and put your +1s where your mouth is. The winner will get a bag of +1s in 2025 and an autographed picture of Jon Koncak and Tree Rollins.

Rules:

- Enter your season win total prediction on this thread. You can change your prediction as many times as you want before the season starts but your last prediction before the start of the season will be the one that counts.

- If you waffle by providing a range of wins (e.g., "Anywhere from 15-30 wins), I will used the average and round up (e.g, 22.5 = 23 wins).

- If you equivocate with a lot of jibber jabber but don't provide a definitive number or range, you will not be included.

Good luck to all!

I will periodically tabulate the predictions throughout the pre-season.

Predictions as of 8/25

graymule 41
sprost 39
cbssports July 20 sportsline 35
GoodDayLA 32
macd-gm 28
steady 28
fivethirtyeight.com CARMELO August 14 early prediction 28
British Sport Book Sky Bet 27
ioeve 27
Bet online.ag 27
ESPN RPM Kevin Pelton 26
birdlives_ma 25
tbhawksfan1 25
Roy Tarpley 24
Westgate Superbook August 6 24
ATL Boy 23
~Wretch~ 23
Peachtree Hoops Writers panel (10 writers) 23.3
Robo_Claw 22
ESPN Summer Forecast Panel 22
13th Man 21
Jamaaliver 19
Geaux_Hawks 18

Average: 25.5 (817/32)

[Roy Tarpley]

Using the 2017-18 baseline of 24 wins: The Hawks lost some veteran players like Bellinelli and Ilyasova, and possibly Schroder, and gained more promising rookies, and a gimpy Lin. So I think this is good for -2 wins. But the development of players like Collins and Prince should put some more wins on the board. So with the caveat that I don't really know the Hawks strength yet, I'll go with the same 24 wins again.

[Jamaaliver]

Using the 2017-18 baseline of 24 wins: The Hawks lost some veteran players like Bellinelli and Ilyasova, and possibly Schroder, and gained more promising rookies, and a gimpy Lin. So I think this is good for -2 wins. But the development of players like Collins and Prince should put some more wins on the board. So with the caveat that I don't really know the Hawks strength yet, I'll go with the same 24 wins again.

You're new around here, so it's easy to miss the biggest departure for the Hawks last year.

Coach Mike Budenholzer is gone. And replaced with novices across the board.

Our roster lacks experience. Our coaching staff lacks experience.

This season could get ugly.

20 wins as things stand...less if Dennis is traded for little In return.

Spoiler:

Shut up, Stannis.

[jayu70]

I will give an official prediction if Dennis is moved and if Lin is healthy to start the season. Until then let's take a look back at the first 41 games of last season as food for thought.

How many games did our top 7 of Dennis, Baze, Prince, Collins, Dedmon, Ilya, and Beli.  play together last year consistently BEFORE the trade deadline?

Ersan started the season injured then missed about 13 games, so the 1st 20 games or so Illy wasn't effective or missing. Two games after he got back Dedmon was out for 19 games. 

Collins missed 6 consecutive games in the same span as Dedmon being out.

Muscala missed 27 games the first part of the season - missed games overlapped with Illy, Dedmon and Collins as well.

So the first half of the season was BRUTAL for our bigs up front. So bad that Tyler Cavanaugh got called up from the GL.. Plumlee was seeing tons of minute as well as Luke Babbit.

How many wins could Bud squeeze from this group if all were healthy the first 41 (I haven't accounted for after the trade deadline since there was a deliberate move to not win).

Based on the current lineup as it stands today:
The Starters: Dennis, Baze, Prince, Collins and Dedmon is decent enough provided that Prince picks up where he left off last season and Collins SL play translates.

The Bench: No Delaney, a healthy Bembry, Moose and Lin plus a plethora of very young players makes for an interesting collection.

Coach: new coach, new players, new adjustments. This will take time.
If Coach Bud was still around and we aren't tanking I think he'd squeeze more wins from this group than CLP.
 

[birdlives_ma]

I’m gonna put my early guess at 25, but I think that could swing a full 10 wins in either direction depending on what we get for DS. I think the trae-Collins pick and roll is gonna be a winner for us, but we need shooters and ball handlers around them and Prince is the only one we’ve really got. Lin too if he’s healthy, I suppose.

Flipping DS for a reasonable 3 and D wing (Simmons or Fournier from orlando?) would put us in a spot where we could push 35 wins IMO, which could have us in the playoffs this year. The bottom half of the playoff bracket is gonna be a **** this year, and I could see a scenario where we sneak in.


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[macd-gm]

28

[Roy Tarpley]

Bump, after the Schroder trade.

[Jamaaliver]

Predicting the 2019 draft lottery teams

1. Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks only won 24 games last year. That was with former Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer on board; Coach Budenholzer has since resigned. Lloyd Pierce was then selected to helm Atlanta moving forward.

Coach Pierce is a perfectly fine replacement for the rebuilding Hawks, but he does not have the experience or resume of coach Bud. Expect some growing pains next season while Pierce implements his system.

The Hawks snagged Trae Young and a future 1st rounder with their 3rd overall draft pick this year. Young may eventually end up an all-star, but the transition from college to the NBA has never been a smooth one for undersized guards. Don’t expect any different for Young.

Losing Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova hurt the Hawks. They only won six games after shipping them to Philadelphia, two of them against fellow bottom dwellers Orlando and Phoenix. Another coming to a Boston Celtics team resting before playoffs.

Picking up Kevin Huerter and Omari Spellman in the draft will help in the future, but like Young, they will need some time to get acclimated to the league. Leaving the Hawks with the worst record in the association.

Sir Charles in Charge

[Jamaaliver]

Bump, after the Schroder trade.

We aren't trying to win games yet.

Last season, with a veteran team headed by a veteran coach, we began the season 3-12. We also ended the season 3-12

We're now a more talented, but less experienced team. I expect a similar start...and a similar finish.

Here's looking forward to a hard earned 19 win season.

[Roy Tarpley]

Bump, after the Schroder trade.

We aren't trying to win games yet.

Last season, with a veteran team headed by a veteran coach, we began the season 3-12. We also ended the season 3-12

We're now a more talented, but less experienced team. I expect a similar start...and a similar finish.

Here's looking forward to a hard earned 19 win season.

Ok, I'll change your prediction from 20 to 19.

The prediction from cbs sportsline is pretty remarkable, they predicted 35 wins using whatever algorithm their analyst Steven Oh uses. I wish I knew what the calculations were because 35 seems HIGHLY optimistic.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-win-total-odds-how-every-teams-2018-19-projections-have-changed-since-the-end-of-last-season/

[Roy Tarpley]

Although the roster is still subject to change, I think it's close enough to ready that we can stop the arm-chair playmaking and weekend warrior jousting and put your +1s where your mouth is. The winner will get a bag of +1s in 2025 and an autographed picture of Jon Koncak and Tree Rollins.

Rules:

- Enter your season win total prediction on this thread. You can change your prediction as many times as you want before the season starts but your last prediction before the start of the season will be the one that counts.

- If you waffle by providing a range of wins (e.g., "Anywhere from 15-30 wins), I will used the average and round up (e.g, 22.5 = 23 wins).

- If you equivocate with a lot of jibber jabber but don't provide a definitive number or range, you will not be included.

Good luck to all!

I will periodically tabulate the predictions throughout the pre-season.

Predictions as of 7/23
cbssports July 20 sportsline 35
macd-gm 28
British Sport Book Sky Bet 27
birdlives_ma 25
Roy Tarpley 24
Jamaaliver 19

Average: 26.3 (158/6)

[tbhawksfan1]

25

[ATL Boy]

23 wins


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[ioeve]

The team now seems better than that in the last year.
If tank, I guest 22 wins. If not, I think 31 wins.

[sprost]

39
Vet let Lin and Trae driving and dishing to a well spaced high 3p% shooting team with significantly improved d over last year
By trade deadline surprising competitive play and popularity means lin stays and playing losing ball strategy for a dubious draft advantage under new rules is forgotten.
Sorry tankers.

[Roy Tarpley]

Predictions as of 7/26

sprost 39
cbssports July 20 sportsline 35
macd-gm 28
British Sport Book Sky Bet 27
ioeve 27
birdlives_ma 25
tbhawksfan1 25
Roy Tarpley 24
ATL Boy 23
Jamaaliver 19

Average: 27.2 (272/10)

[13th Man]

Edit: July 29

I'm changing my pick to 21 wins....until they show me something in preseason.

[Robo_Claw]

I think getting past 20 would be a miracle with how much change has taken place. However we might as well keep going after those high picks anyways.

[Robo_Claw]

39
Vet let Lin and Trae driving and dishing to a well spaced high 3p% shooting team with significantly improved d over last year
By trade deadline surprising competitive play and popularity means lin stays and playing losing ball strategy for a dubious draft advantage under new rules is forgotten.
Sorry tankers.

No chance.

Unless Coach Pierce is the best that has ever lived, all of our young players have career years and Lin is in the MVP discussion do we break 30.

Dunno what to expect for Trae but he's a rookie and he is gonna struggle at times. Lin will be injured or average at best at this point. VC will throw down 1-2 impressive games despite being 200 years old and we will be top 3 in the draft again i'd imagine.

Best case scenario for me would be actually having some basketball worth watching again even if it doesn't add up to many wins. My liver was hurting after a while last year.

[Roy Tarpley]

I think getting past 20 would be a miracle with how much change has taken place. However we might as well keep going after those high picks anyways.

Make a prediction!